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Everything posted by daniel barber
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deep low for southern england\east anglia
daniel barber replied to Robert1981's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Seems like it was well forecast to me -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
daniel barber replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'm not saying those at the bbc don't look at models. But for pretty much every cold spell they always wait until closer to the time frame before they really pick up on it. Those folks looking at models here are enthusiasts and the data is always subject to change. But simply writing off anything just because the bbc hasn't updated seems abit silly. In that case you way aswell not look at models at all. If the trends stay give it a few days and the bbc will line up. As they pretty much do evey cold spell -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
daniel barber replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You are aware it would probably take between 2 to 5 working days for the bbc to acknowledge model trends. Plus whenever has the bbc ever been bullish on upcoming cold spells until closer to the time frame. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
daniel barber replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not sure the hundreds of thousands of troops sitting in trenches would do very well in those conditions. -
Storms and Convective discussion - November 2023 onwards
daniel barber replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Last few days has been really cool to see these supercell like structures in the showers. You can clearly see the wind shear rotating the showers. Something you would see on a nws radar in the us -
Having watched storms for many years in the nowcasting periods like this. This seems to be always the case that storms are always a few mb deeper than predicted.
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Storm Ciaran Prediction Comp
daniel barber replied to pinball wizard's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Alderney 112mph -
I mean that's pretty much what some of the high res models are showing. Not exactly surprising. Over the channel the high res models show a narrow band of 100mph plus
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Don't really see how this could indicate its much worse than forecast, as well the models predict a sting jet anyway in a sense. Need to keep an eye on observations to make any rational prediction. And more importantly track. That's what's going to decide impacts the most. We know there's gonna be 100mph plus winds in the channel. It's whether the storms track shunts them more north
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It's certainly got a different feeling maybe due to the upper ceiling potential along with uncertainty so close to the event. For essex it's still not looking to serious your average annual bad winter storm. However its the fact there's still that chance that it could be more.
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Regarding the nowcast scenario ignoring models. What's the storm looking like regarding track and intensity. Should be looking at this more now instead of models
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