Audaxian
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Posts posted by Audaxian
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11 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
Yes - There’s no real statistical difference between them when averaged out.
Higher number better or worse? Just looking at that specific chart, you can see that 17th sticks out (all the models either right on the button or way off it), and then if you look at the days before the 17th vs the days after the 17th there's a noticeable shift from being mostly clustered in the 0.3 to 0.6 range, vs mostly clustered 0.5 to 0.7.
I'm assuming these appear with a bit of lag? How long would that be - a few days or are we talking week or longer? If it's a short enough lag, we could be using these charts to "estimate" how reliable the model runs we're seeing currently might be; eg if they've been trending "bad" pile on some extra salt?
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20 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
I am no expert in modelling, but I don't really see why the EPS having the same resolution as the OP should result in more wrong solutions early on. One of the main reasons to have the EPS the same resolution as the OP is so they have the same ability to resolve smaller features. On a localised scale I guess this could lead to wider range of solutions regarding winds etc, but for the broader pattern I don't see why a higher resolution to previous would result in more "wrong" solutions early on.
Sorry, not particularly helpful!
I think the hypothesis here is that same resolution = more likely for the models to "follow the same route" and generate less variation. So if the OP gets it wrong, it's possibly now more likely that the ensembles follow it than it was previously. But if the OP gets it right, same applies - ensembles more likely to follow along.
I suspect, however, that won't be too big an issue. I would think that while all the runs start with the same initial input data, they will all have small variations very quickly. Higher resolution could even result in more divergence as those small variations become more developed than they would at lower resolution, and thus potentially more influential on the evolution of the run.
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12 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:
It does seem like all models have massively underestimated this PPN & the extent of it,
closely watching the radar as it pushes N/E -
areas like
- Essex
- Kent
-Sussex
- surrey
- possibly London,
all look in a firing line - maybe 2-5cm expected here, maybe 10-20cm on higher ground ofc
we will see how far west this could push and how heavy this PPN stays as it pushes N/E
As I say this,
MetO increase the likelihood and bring the time forward
Proper snowing here in Uckfield. Road is white already.
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3 hours ago, Audaxian said:
had a few ice days down here, and plenty of hours with snow in the air. But not enough snow to do anything significant - yesterday morning we had enough on the street outside that it was white, but was all gone as soon as the sun emerged. Tried again this morning, but as with earlier in the week it just couldn't penetrate far enough inland and/or has passed either to the north or south of where I am. Radar suggests East Grinstead is probably getting a nice little flurry at the moment. North coast of Kent has seen a bit this morning, but it's dying out pretty quick as it travels south east into Sussex.
Well well well. Nowcasting coming into its own at the moment IMBY. around 3 hours ago MetO was forecasting heavy snow for Uckfield from 3pm, for around an hour, before clearing. By 11am that had been revised to snow showers at 3pm, with rapid clearing. BBC at 11am showed no snow at all. Netweather suggested showers between 3pm and 4pm before clearing.
Right now, 1:30pm and it's been snowing lightly for nearly a half hour now, and the Netweather radar is suggesting we're going to get hit by the southern edge of a heavier band that's crossing the Kent coast near Canterbury and running south westerly towards where I am. Looks like it might just sink far enough south to generate a decent fall here.
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Have a feeling FI is not that far out at the moment. Struggling to see them agree on what happens IMBY this afternoon, let alone tomorrow morning and beyond.
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had a few ice days down here, and plenty of hours with snow in the air. But not enough snow to do anything significant - yesterday morning we had enough on the street outside that it was white, but was all gone as soon as the sun emerged. Tried again this morning, but as with earlier in the week it just couldn't penetrate far enough inland and/or has passed either to the north or south of where I am. Radar suggests East Grinstead is probably getting a nice little flurry at the moment. North coast of Kent has seen a bit this morning, but it's dying out pretty quick as it travels south east into Sussex.
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5 minutes ago, That ECM said:
Not sure if se have had much snow yet they’ll be for this.
Had some snow (the fat wet stuff) falling mixed in with rain in the last cold spell where I am (Uckfield). We were just a little too far south, I heard not far north of us got a decent covering.
1 minute ago, Southender said:I'll take that and run please. Snow Porn for the snow starved EA/SE members.
Yup, me too!
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1 hour ago, IDO said:
Although I would love to see that, the Para is not fit for consumption and I cannot see this coming on line as it would be a joke. We have been seeing those para boom charts for weeks! The latest verification:
It only beats the cfs and has some atrocious runs, a 0.1 and a 0.28. These are the sign of a failed model that needs some reprogramming. The current gfs is no world-beater but does not drop below 0.4 on any of the sampling.
I dunno. When I look at that chart, I can see that the Para had some stinkers at the end of 2020. But if you look at the chart from New Year onwards, it looks to be doing ok. And even the full chart, if you remove the stinkers (which could be stinkers for any number of reasons unrelated to the quality of the model itself) then it generally looks pretty good - including a period 16th to 24th Dec where it was top of the pile (and again more recently, it's outperformed its older cousin a number of times).
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Got another hour of work here in Uxbridge before hitting the road to head back down to Uckfield. MetOffice is suggesting the snow might beat me home...
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1 hour ago, MP-R said:
If it's any consolation, I started driving lessons in December 2009... yeah.
I did the direct access motorcycle course in December 2010. Failed my first test, having arrived at the test centre to be told that it would likely be cancelled due to snow on all their routes, only to have it confirmed as going ahead 5 minutes before due to go out. Promptly messed up pulling away from stationary on-road parking less than 5 minutes into the test.
Anyway, on a more on-topic note: I've been AWOL over the summer (being a snow junky as an ex-pat Aussie) and it appears I've got a lot of catching up to do. Anyone able to point me at a thread or two (or just send me a PM if easier!) that discusses the new models (Para & FV3 in particular, any others?) I've been seeing mentioned, and what their advantages / disadvantages might be? In particular if any of them are expected to be more accurate during the winter months and/or more accurate for our wonderfully difficult to predict island.
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Starting to look like the models are following a similar pattern to last time: 1) spot the easterly in FI; 2) toy with dropping it; 3) bring it back again, but then gradually sink it south over a few runs; 4) correct back north again closer to the actual event.
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Just now, Summer Sun said:
GFS 12z speeding up the arrival of the cold air
12z
06z
Is it wanting to take that cold air ever so slightly further north as well?
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5 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:
The GFS did excellent I might add in predicting this current spell we are in so far out. Granted it isn't Gospel, but it isn't to be dismissed either.
Spring is on hold.
GFS predicted it first (way out in FI), then backed off, then other models picked it up ... and backed off, while the GFS started bringing it back in. I think there's a lot of lessons to be learned (both for all of us here - including silent watchers like me - as well as for the folks running the models). Big thing I picked out of the last couple of weeks is that none of the models handle SSW-initiated events particularly well, especially through the mid-range. They started out getting it right in FI, got it wrong through the mid range, then corrected in the short range with a few flip-flops along the way.
IIRC GFS was the first to spot the breakdown for this weekend as well?
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That Amber warning is making me wonder what my morning commute will be like. Up the A22 from Uckfield then around the M25 to the M4.
Might have a work from home week forced on me if it kicks off.
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Had a couple of cm of snow on top of my car this morning. Very pretty in the garden, though it seems to have been pretty localised ... by the time I got out of Uckfield onto the A22 the amount of lying snow was minimal. Was still impressed that some of the snow I left on the roof of the car was still there by the time I got to Uxbridge.
More of a starter than a main course. Hopefully the SSW waiter brings a big helping soon.
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5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:
@CLIMATE CHANGE...NOT GW!!!!!
?
So much this. Whoever it was that managed to get the "global warming" phrase to go mainstream needs a slap on the back the head. Plenty of places in the world where the effects of climate change could result in colder conditions. I've not stayed in touch with the science as much as I should have (was a research assistant helping out on re-drafting a chapter in one of the mid-late '90's IPCC reports), but pretty sure what was already known back then will still hold true: the biggest thing to watch out for is increased frequency of "extreme" weather events (both hot and cold).
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17 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:
If its a location forecast it will update everytime the GFS is run, 4 times a day, if I was going to use location forecasts (I only use them as a guide to find out what met office models are showing) then I would use Met Office or BBC ones.
Thanks for this @feb1991blizzard - useful info. I'd guessed it might be linked to those based on how they flip-flop quite a lot for anything beyond day 3. And yes, I don't rely on them - use them in combination with Met Office, and mostly for getting a feel for the "possibilities" rather than anything definitive.
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Netweather Day 8-10 "forecasts" teasing potential wintry showers for Uckfield during dark hours. Nothing during the day, and I just know by the time we get there they'll have disappeared... Always do.
On a semi-related note, does anyone know whether those forecasts are updated on a routine frequency? I know the 7 Day Forecasts get updated during the day, but I've never got a feel for whether or not there's set times I should be looking for the updates.
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Netweather forecast for my area next Friday/Saturday suggesting a tasty dumping of snow. I'll believe it when I see it, had too many of these longer range forecasts for prolonged heavy snow disappear in the last few years.
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Driving home around the M25 last night. Brilliant sunshine heading south through J12, so much so I opened the car window half-way to cool down a bit. Arrive at the queue for the exit at J6 there's snow falling, enough of it to make visibility an issue heading south on the dual-carriage section of the A22 on anything less than full-speed wipers.
Strange, strange weather for this time of year.
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20 hours ago, Audaxian said:
Assuming it shows up, having had an entire winter of Netweather teasing me with high probability snow forecasts from a few days out that subsequently disappear a day later!
Ha ha ... called it. What was originally a "70%" chance of snow at some point between midnight and 4am on Sunday, is now showing as jolly cold but clear with no chance of precipitation of any sort.
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21 hours ago, March said:
The problem is that you can't take the temps at face value. We've already had quite a number of lovely days that may only say 14-16 in the data but in the glorious sunshine feels wonderful. Today is such a day. There really hasn't been much "cold" to speak of.
21 hours ago, stainesbloke said:Exactly, the strengthening sun means it feels very pleasant out. Plus quite a large chunk of Europe will be chilly, not just us. Benelux look like being battered by gales. Could be worse for Blighty. Only downside is the forecast frosts, could do without those now.
So true. I made the mistake on my commute home around the M25 last night of wearing my jacket in the car. Oops - gorgeous sunshine the whole way, and while I was stuck in queues it was streaming in the driver side window and cooking me in my little Aygo with no A/C. It was window down and hope for some traffic movement to help cool down.
20 hours ago, carinthian said:Yes, looks like you have a lovely Spring Day across much of the Kingdom with temps around 13c.or so and light winds, must feel very nice. There is no doubt that a late cold spell is imminent with single all day digit temps by Monday. Lets hope it warms up sooner than later after next week.
C
Indeed it was a gorgeous day yesterday. Being topped today, and looks look a repeat for tomorrow before the cold sinks in from Friday onwards. Hopefully just a short blip, and then back into the steadily warming weather.
Me personally, even this late in the season I don't mind some snow. Having grown up in Australia, I didn't see much of it as a youngster. So now I take it wherever, and whenever, I can get it. Current Netweather forecast for my area is suggesting we might get some very early Sunday morning ... thankfully right at the time my little boy is waking us up wanting a feed, so I may even be awake to see it. Assuming it shows up, having had an entire winter of Netweather teasing me with high probability snow forecasts from a few days out that subsequently disappear a day later!
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Had it all today. Brief morning snow was followed by some sunny patches, then a very brief (and light) flutter of hail around lunch time, followed by a brilliant blue-sky sunshine early afternoon, and just now a big dirty cloud passed over dumping some relatively heavy rain (which is now giving way to sunshine again after just 10-15 minutes of being really, really dull).
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Just had a brief flurry of big fat snow flakes in Uckfield. 5 minutes worth maybe, already stopped. Was coming in horizontal for a bit. Nothing settled other than what got plastered to the side of the car.
Edit: and within a very short time frame we now have sun breaking through the cloud cover. Talk about a tease!
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Where did the quote button go?
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@Paul what I've seen on other communities with a similar set up to what you're trialling now is that the "reply @mention" when hovered by the mouse or tapped on a mobile device brings up an overlay that shows the content from the replied-to post. Similar to what happens here where if you hover the mouse over an @mention it brings up the user's profile card, hovering over the reply arrow icon could bring up the content of the post.