Audaxian

@Paul what I've seen on other communities with a similar set up to what you're trialling now is that the "reply @mention" when hovered by the mouse or tapped on a mobile device brings up an overlay that shows the content from the replied-to post. Similar to what happens here where if you hover the mouse over an @mention it brings up the user's profile card, hovering over the reply arrow icon could bring up the content of the post.

Higher number better or worse? Just looking at that specific chart, you can see that 17th sticks out (all the models either right on the button or way off it), and then if you look at the days before the 17th vs the days after the 17th there's a noticeable shift from being mostly clustered in the 0.3 to 0.6 range, vs mostly clustered 0.5 to 0.7. I'm assuming these appear with a bit of lag? How long would that be - a few days or are we talking week or longer? If it's a short enough lag, we could be using these charts to "estimate" how reliable the model runs we're seeing currently might be; eg if they've been trending "bad" pile on some extra salt?

I think the hypothesis here is that same resolution = more likely for the models to "follow the same route" and generate less variation. So if the OP gets it wrong, it's possibly now more likely that the ensembles follow it than it was previously. But if the OP gets it right, same applies - ensembles more likely to follow along. I suspect, however, that won't be too big an issue. I would think that while all the runs start with the same initial input data, they will all have small variations very quickly. Higher resolution could even result in more divergence as those small variations become more developed than they would at lower resolution, and thus potentially more influential on the evolution of the run.

Proper snowing here in Uckfield. Road is white already.

Well well well. Nowcasting coming into its own at the moment IMBY. around 3 hours ago MetO was forecasting heavy snow for Uckfield from 3pm, for around an hour, before clearing. By 11am that had been revised to snow showers at 3pm, with rapid clearing. BBC at 11am showed no snow at all. Netweather suggested showers between 3pm and 4pm before clearing. Right now, 1:30pm and it's been snowing lightly for nearly a half hour now, and the Netweather radar is suggesting we're going to get hit by the southern edge of a heavier band that's crossing the Kent coast near Canterbury and running south westerly towards where I am. Looks like it might just sink far enough south to generate a decent fall here.

Have a feeling FI is not that far out at the moment. Struggling to see them agree on what happens IMBY this afternoon, let alone tomorrow morning and beyond.

had a few ice days down here, and plenty of hours with snow in the air. But not enough snow to do anything significant - yesterday morning we had enough on the street outside that it was white, but was all gone as soon as the sun emerged. Tried again this morning, but as with earlier in the week it just couldn't penetrate far enough inland and/or has passed either to the north or south of where I am. Radar suggests East Grinstead is probably getting a nice little flurry at the moment. North coast of Kent has seen a bit this morning, but it's dying out pretty quick as it travels south east into Sussex.

Had some snow (the fat wet stuff) falling mixed in with rain in the last cold spell where I am (Uckfield). We were just a little too far south, I heard not far north of us got a decent covering. Yup, me too!

I dunno. When I look at that chart, I can see that the Para had some stinkers at the end of 2020. But if you look at the chart from New Year onwards, it looks to be doing ok. And even the full chart, if you remove the stinkers (which could be stinkers for any number of reasons unrelated to the quality of the model itself) then it generally looks pretty good - including a period 16th to 24th Dec where it was top of the pile (and again more recently, it's outperformed its older cousin a number of times).

Got another hour of work here in Uxbridge before hitting the road to head back down to Uckfield. MetOffice is suggesting the snow might beat me home...

I did the direct access motorcycle course in December 2010. Failed my first test, having arrived at the test centre to be told that it would likely be cancelled due to snow on all their routes, only to have it confirmed as going ahead 5 minutes before due to go out. Promptly messed up pulling away from stationary on-road parking less than 5 minutes into the test. Anyway, on a more on-topic note: I've been AWOL over the summer (being a snow junky as an ex-pat Aussie) and it appears I've got a lot of catching up to do. Anyone able to point me at a thread or two (or just send me a PM if easier!) that discusses the new models (Para & FV3 in particular, any others?) I've been seeing mentioned, and what their advantages / disadvantages might be? In particular if any of them are expected to be more accurate during the winter months and/or more accurate for our wonderfully difficult to predict island.

Starting to look like the models are following a similar pattern to last time: 1) spot the easterly in FI; 2) toy with dropping it; 3) bring it back again, but then gradually sink it south over a few runs; 4) correct back north again closer to the actual event.

Is it wanting to take that cold air ever so slightly further north as well?

GFS predicted it first (way out in FI), then backed off, then other models picked it up ... and backed off, while the GFS started bringing it back in. I think there's a lot of lessons to be learned (both for all of us here - including silent watchers like me - as well as for the folks running the models). Big thing I picked out of the last couple of weeks is that none of the models handle SSW-initiated events particularly well, especially through the mid-range. They started out getting it right in FI, got it wrong through the mid range, then corrected in the short range with a few flip-flops along the way. IIRC GFS was the first to spot the breakdown for this weekend as well?

That Amber warning is making me wonder what my morning commute will be like. Up the A22 from Uckfield then around the M25 to the M4. Might have a work from home week forced on me if it kicks off.