Vestan

I thought we had very high amounts of Cape last summer during the very hot spell when it hit 38C but there was just no trigger at all & it all shunted away at the end anyway. Surely cape means nothing without a trigger? Although I understand it's all about the 'potential'!

Looks like the Reading cell will end up to our South and anything coming out of London will probably end up North. Still stuff developing though, so it's not a bust yet...

I can't believe how heavy that rain is down in the South West, whilst here in W Oxfordshire I have had to water the garden once again as the ground remains rock hard. Barely any rain and not a rumble heard all year. I think there is a corridor from Oxford stretching West to take in Glos and Wilts that has seen nothing majorly connective for a good couple of years. Hence, I can't get excited about any potential for the weekend as it will all undoubtedly be North & East of me. Bah!

It will be the usual this week: Expectations of a MCS moving up from France leading to promises of chasing. Slight dampening of expectations by Tuesday night from latest runs. A few small cells will form around the Bedfordshire area before moving East over East Anglia into the North Sea. We all moan about being members of the no storms club & look forward to the next event in July!

Next weekend is May. The Sun is getting stronger now. When we get those 40C temps in Europe again we can look forward to more slightly disappointing plume events!

It's been a terrible year. Everything seems to kick off North and East of me. I reckon Wiltshire & Gloucestershire has been the worst place for storms this year

The view looking across to the Isle of Wight from Boscombe beach. All the action is East of here.

I am Witney as well and it is a plane from Brize. Been flying round for the last 30 mins! All this stuff on the South coast should be with us by 1.30am I reckon if it keeps going. Seems to be expanding on the Western side

Lasts nights BBC forecast assumed this rain sweeping down in a SE direction would have petered out to nothing by the time it got to the Midlands. Clearly this is not the case & nothing is happening in the south east either. Pretty poor tbf

BBC forecast earlier suggesting storms in South on Wednesday moving to affect more northern areas on Thursday. Seems like this setup of high pressure over south of UK with a low over the continent could be around for another week or so

Last night was typical of my luck over recent years. The London storm was approaching Oxford but seemed to lose it's energy as it went through. Nothing but rain all night for me. Still I'm on the edge of today's MDT zone so here's hoping

Where is that London cell headed. I'm tempted to go East of Oxford if it's worth it

North West, maybe even WNW, but seem to have a slightly more northerly track than 2 hours ago

There will be a lot of moisture at Liverpool John Lennon from 4am when the first planefuls of tearful Scousers start to land! I will be in South Oxfordshire tonight so inside the MDT zone. Could be interesting.. ...

And so begins the annual inevitable disappointment when nothing happens in my area! Still, I think the anticipation is almost as exciting.....

And the gap of nothingness between Bath & Swindon continues.......

I think these are the most exciting and at the same time the worst moments. You can see it all developing on the radar, read the forecasts telling you what may happen and where and yet there is still that fear that the only action you will see is on YouTube later! I'm hoping for some action in the C/S Midlands later, hopefully after dark. Even my kids are excited about seeing something although that will probably change when it does happen! Leaving work in an hour and settling down to watch the NW radar.......

Well I'm going on holiday to Dorset for a week on the 21st so a week of hot weather and a few storms thrown in would be brilliant. Not heard a rumble since May

Talk of a 'thundery breakdown' on the BBC forecast tonight around the middle of next week, but uncertainties around whether it would be due to air coming up from the South or in from the West

The track of that storm in France looks like Southampton, Basingstoke, Reading, Milton Keynes etc which is pretty much in line with the MOD area on the earlier Convective Weather forecast

So Saturday was a disappointment having woken up at 3am & checked the radar to see a line of storms approaching, I expected to be woken by a rumble of thunder around 6am. In the end it rained heavily for 5 minutes about 6.40am and that was it. Hoping for some real action tonight, when its dark. I really want to get out onto the top of the costwolds and see some action, but I appear to have my own storm shield, so lets wait....

And here in West Oxfordshire, not a drop of rain all night

I am looking out the office window over the Chilterns and hoping that activity makes its way WNW over the next 2 hours

My local BBC forecast this evening suggested that tomorrow would see a line of storms forming around Reading to Banbury area and moving North West into the Midlands before turning round and going East! Some interesting potential

I'm in Oxford & expecting this to pass slightly to my West?