Richard Fisher
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Posts posted by Richard Fisher
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18 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:
Seems a fair forecast looking at latest model output. Sorry, but cant see the point you are trying to make.
It’s in response to the many posts about the Beeb weather forecast for Tuesday not even mentioning a potential snow event.
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BBC 1 6 30pm forecast temps showing a lot cooler than today so no records set to be broken tomorrow. Still waiting for the heatwave to start here in Bristol.
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This is unbelievable Bristol is getting absolutely pasted with heavy snow.
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I can’t believe TV forecasts tonight are completely out of date with what’s going on outside RIGHT NOW. Bristol is getting battered at the moment.
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Really heavy snow now in Kingswood, Bristol. All areas getting covered easily.
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Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:
Do people think the snow coming later will give quite a few cm?
Yes Snow should be getting heavier soon.
Ps good luck Cardiff FC tomorrow from a very very depressed Albion ST holder. Only consolation is seeing Villa mates hopes of a top 2 spot disappear.
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I must say quite disappointing so far here in Kingswood Bristol. Very patchy settling of snow on surfaces not seen any big flakes yet. If this continues as it is no way going to get more than a few cm’s here.
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1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:
What is latest snow update for Bristol area tonight/tom guys?
Are we on the edge or is it really a Devon/Cornwall affair?
Up to 10cm. Not sure why Bristol is not yet in the Amber warning area. BBC show heavy snow all over Bristol for most of the night
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Really heavy drifting snow in Kingswood, Bristol.
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21 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:
Light snow here, BBC graphics and METO app not looking as good this morning though, I am an optimist so will just radar and window watch now. RE the red warning people have mentioned I would think that would only be issued if it affects densely populated areas, not sure though.
? Carol Kirkwood’s 7:19am BBC forecast showing snow graphics all over Bristol from early afternoon. Up to 20cm.
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8 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:
I watch Only Fools on Gold all the time. Some episodes i reck i've watched 50 times! Chain Gang is an all-round classic- saved on my Virgin v6 box.
Anyway, light flurry here now. Was hoping for main event tomorrow but looks like Friday is main action
Ian, BBC and Metoffice all singing from same hymn heavy snow starts around 4pm tomorrow afternoon and stays heavy until early hours Fri morning. 2nd less intense band comes through Fri am and PM. No delay.
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12 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:
As a fellow Gashead we should be used to let downs by now
And myself as a West Brom ST holder living in Bristol I’m also used to let downs (and impending relegation from the greed league). Emma DO NOT go East.
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40 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:
That is a "we're not really sure how much" range, for sure
Snow flurries here at mo.
I think Bristol will be a tale of 2 cities tomorrow and Friday. City centre Bristol with heat effect probably won’t see more than 5 cm but surrounding towns no more than 3 - 4 miles away will see a lot more snow.
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5 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:
I became pretty bullish during today that we were in for a good 24-hiur job. Tom nite was down for a major all-nighter. Not so sure now.
There is no delay, heavy snow kicks in from 4pm tomorrow for us in Bristol The problem with national forecasts is you do not get zoomed in regional detail. Hopefully Ian will give a fully local summary in 10 mins.
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2 minutes ago, AWD said:
The 0z Arpege is my fave this morning;
Widely 10cm - 15cm and a lot more over the moors by the end of play Friday.
Phew no overnight downgrades by the look of things. We in Bristol hopefully get a pasting.
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2 minutes ago, Nick F said:
Synoptic analysis 22:00 27/02/2018
Wednesday
Pretty impressive 500mb upper low and associated cold pool moving SW across the N Sea from Denmark tonight and moving over northern Britain Wednesday morning. EC indicating 500mb temps as low as -46C, this will create very steep lapse rates and the intense upper low will create large scale ascent – which will both support vigorous convection off the North Sea over northern UK, bringing some significant snowfall to eastern England north of Lincolnshire and eastern Scotland over the next 12-24 hours. Could be frequent snow showers affecting Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex and perhaps north Kent too overnight as flow veers from northeasterly to easterly, hence upgrade to Amber warning for these areas this evening.
So frequent snow showers for eastern Scotland and northern England on Wednesday - giving 5-10cm widely, 15-25cm over higher ground, locally up to 40cm. Further south across England and Wales, like today, surface shallow warming in sunshine under deep cold air characterised by steep lapse rates will generate snow showers or flurries inland and further snow coming in off North Sea.
Thursday
Thursday sees further frequent snow showers pile in through the day across Scotland, getting well inland, could pose a problem through the central belt – with the straight easterly flow funneling a streamer through here perhaps – giving some large local accumulations to this more populated area of central Scotland and likely causing further travel disruption.
Further south, brief lull in the south continues Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but trouble is lurking to the south, as Storm Emma, named by the Portuguese weather service, lurks off NW Spain by 12z Thursday and pushes fronts north across France toward southern England, bringing a spell of snow north across southern areas through the morning, turning heavy across SW England and Wales in the afternoon and evening, as Emma moves north across Bay of Biscay then turns NW toward SW Ireland by midnight. The low deepening as it moves toward Ireland. 972mb off SW Ireland for 06z Friday, so some strong winds developing across SW England, Wales and particularly Ireland – giving blizzard conditions over higher ground.
Friday
Friday sees Emma just off SW Ireland by Midday before pulling away west over the Atlantic and filling. Associated occluding front, behind warm/upper warm fronts bringing snow on Thursday, looks to being another band of snow northeast Friday afternoon and evening, before slowing and fizzling out over central parts as per 12z EC – though where exactly it stalls and weakens still uncertain, maybe central maybe further south.
What's your best guess on snowfall totals on the front from the SW Nick?
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13 minutes ago, Matty-H said:
Baffling. I cannot find any output that remotely reflects the forecast on BBC Points West this evening or the Amber zone. Nothing. Most of the output takes it across western wales and Ireland. Patchy stuff at best here. What am I missing? Are the forecasts being heavily modified with human input? It’s not even tonight. It was the same yesterday.
??? Not sure where your getting your information from but Snow charts from above posters show huge snowfalls possible over you and most of the SW. In addition BBC TV and Met Office predictions are currently onboard with heavy snow for our area.
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1 hour ago, bathweatherwatcher said:
Yes Ian was rushed tonight. The producers of Points West obviously felt a story about knitted knockers (see Points West FB page) deserved more airtime than the forecast for the potential of quite severe weather in our region over the next few days.
As always, Ian was a true professional and did his best to fit as much in as he could in such a short space of time rushing through tomorrow’s forecast to get to Thursday.
Sadly this happens all too often on Points West with Ian given little time to deliver his forecast; even at times of severe weather. I like Points West but sometimes the program can be a waste of half an hour apart from the weather forecast.
Yes felt sorry for Ian tonight he was made to look like a right tit (pardon the pun). He should of been given more air time especially as it was a slow news day. Come Thurs/Fri they will want him on air every couple of minutes. He must get so annoyed with being rushed.
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22 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:
More towards SE Wales
The snow looks much lighter than previously forecast but again still a few days yet for that to change
IRISH met are talking 50cm + for them out of this system.
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A lot of IMBY posts this morning. Huge upgrade for Snow and Blizzards for SW this morning for Thurs/Fri. BBC now fully on board and stating snow to continue into Saturday. Why the negativity?
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GFS 18 must be an outlier. METO still going with major snow event Friday. Bring it on.
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Here we go guys the first warning out which includes our region
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Got this feeling our region is going to miss out on the disruptive snow next week as we are too far west. We might get lucky with fronts pushing in from the SW late Thurs/Fri otherwise eastern UK look to benefit most.
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It might be getting cold but the wait for snow seems to be at least 7 days away.
Met office
UK Outlook for Monday 26 Feb 2018 to Wednesday 7 Mar 2018:
It will be turning much colder next week. Monday and Tuesday will be mainly dry with sunny spells, but snow showers will develop across some eastern and southern areas, where fresh winds will make it feel bitterly cold. Through the rest of the week it will remain cold with an increased risk of ice, frost and snow showers. These will be heaviest and most frequent in central and eastern areas, and some spells of more prolonged snow are possible at times, particularly in the east and across southern England. The cold weather will continue into early March, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather, and here it may be less cold at times, although brisk winds will continue to bring a marked wind chill.
UK Outlook for Thursday 8 Mar 2018 to Thursday 22 Mar 2018:
At the start of this period it is likely to be very cold across the UK, with widespread frost and brisk easterly winds from Continental Europe, making it feel raw. This will continue to bring the risk of significant snow across some southern, eastern and central parts of the UK, whereas towards the north and west it will be drier. As we head through the middle of March, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, but it may start to turn more unsettled and less cold with the wettest and mildest weather spreading in from the southwest. In contrast, northern and eastern areas could remain colder well into.-
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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards
in Regional
Posted
Based on this forecast 2-8cm Bristol Northwards and as you say 1-3cm Somerset. Still all to play for my max prediction is 20cm somewhere in South East Wales.