[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

One such case sticks out in my mind (and it was the last genuinely cold and snowy period)....March 2013. The CFS saw that coming from two months away. Nailed it. Not sure whether the GLOSEA saw the same signals as wasn't really checking that model at the time.

These sort of charts were being churned out regularly leading up to the event, with HP shown somewhere between Scandi and Greenland

At the moment we're seeing no such inclination from any long range model and it has been this way for months. 

Hi CC, I would normally be down-spirited like you, with CFS and GLOSEA showing this signal (rock-solid as you say, and I think they are usually fairly good in verifying) -  but the strange thing is , if you watch Gavs weather vids you will know that the BCC and ECM seasonal models are going for a negative NAO winter - really quite different to CFS and GLOSEA. Indeed Gav P was saying that the professionals are 'scratching their heads' as far as he knows. So personally I'm not as despairing as I would normally be, and I think maybe this winter might suprise us somewhat. 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Hi there MWB, great analysis there, thanks for the info. 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Hi everyone, first post on here, though have been a member of TWO for a few years, so know how the game works and all that

Just wanted to say that I seem to remember that part of the problem last year with getting cold spells was lack of low pressure to our south, but I think this year maybe looks more favourable in that respect.