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Everything posted by Paul Sherman
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That was yesterdays run that I saved just for prosperity and for future archiving But.........So far the 12z's are pushing this way way too far to the SE so much that even I am started to get a tad twitchy about Sunday. Lets see what the 18z's show I guess but if the UKV starts shoving this into the North Sea for the Cod to enjoy I will be a very unhappy camper along with most of the SE but I guess for everyones woe some other regionals will be rejoicing and popping the Pomagne
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Am hoping to do a facebook live if there are 40mph winds and Blizzards at some point on Sunday as probably wont see those conditions very much in my lifetime in this country, have a country park near me which is exposed to the east so should get some serious drifting pics if snow accumulation is heavy enough, like Alexis said could be some harsh conditions out there
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Underwhelming set of 12z's so far the rollercoaster ride in full effect. Just as an aside the front that pumps the precip into the Uk has its origins in Eastern Poland through Germany and the Low Countires which is madness. Some of my Storm Chasing Buddies in Holland are expected to get 30-40cm of snow from this as well. Going to be some stupidly low dewpoints by wednesday with some -10c to -15c readings meaning super dry continental air being imported into the Uk. Expect to see Rime Ice and freezing fog by midweek as well so get those cameras charged peeps
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Beast From the East for Leigh On Sea was more notable for the Depth of Cold with a -5c Maximum on the 3rd March and a notable Ice Storm. The snow depth at my house was only 5cm and I had to drive east to Shoeburyness to see where the strong wind had whipped up the snow into drifts. Pics below show the Ice Storm Impact on Leaves and Snow drifted up at Shoeburyness MOD Land
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Amazing to think this is going to start pretty much to the hour from the 1991 spell almost exactly 30 years ago to the day I remember that Thursday on the 7th Feb 1991 being sent home from work around Midday and leaving London which had a dusting and getting pretty much the last train out of Liverpool Street to get home to about 5cm that had already fallen at the start of that spell. Does anyone have the charts for the 7th Feb 1991 ?
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If I was to have a stab at where the highest totals will be by end of play on Wednesday it would be somewhere like Meopham or Detling Hill on the North Downs with totals exceeding 30cm by then and god only knows what the drifts will be by then with 4 days of screaming North Easterlies or Easterlies blowing the snow around. Harsh conditions in those areas
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After looking at that UKV run would expect the Meto to go Amber in an area covering Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex, Kent and Sussex and maybe as far west as Central London initially for the 1st Course taking us upto 2359 Sunday night. Then expect other warnings to crop up for Mon onwards next week. Oh and please can we not have too many bust posts when it's still raining tomorrow at 5pm as we know the transition will occur sometime between 8pm tomorrow evening and Midnight. Expecting some massive temp crashes probably of 6c in 6 hours Good luck everyone and good things come to those that wait
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Yh one saving grace is its the worst model giving the maginality GFS as everyone knows is dreadful with modelling and usually gets slapped back into line kicking and screaming. Another thing on our side is no onshore flow for most of the SE until maginality does not matter Monday onwards and only the very Eastern tip of Kent might need to worry with the NNE aspect of winds during Sunday
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SE Essex looking dodgy on those charts as well Maybe my 35 months without a dusting is to be extended, would be hilarious if that happened and would tip me over fully to the Mets thinking that Climate change is occuring re rare snowfall events for the SE in future years if we cant get snow from a Scandi Set Up