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Everything posted by Paul Sherman
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Alarming temp rise from 10am to 11am from 0c to 3c Harmonie and Arpege nailed this with ECM and GFS woeful as expected. The former 2 even had the fragmentation and pivot spot on whereas the latter had the occlusion going through to east Kent. Once again we know who to trust going forward and ECM now 0 from 9 IMBY
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Yh Dan just posted on Twitter saying pretty much that, rain and slops for most of the day for SE Essex and hopefully we can get the band further north that then drops south east later turning the wind northerly and giving us a covering at least. Enjoy further west guys, Sliders probably deliver about a 1 in 10 scenario for here over the course of history and those are only when deep entrenched cold has been over the area for weeks before.
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If your talking screw zone this winter where places have hardly even seen a flake of snow falling and run the risk of not seeing any this side of February the following areas have been the unfortunate ones South Essex, Kent, Coastal Suffolk, Parts of London. Am just hoping those Cheshire Gap showers have at least a few snowflakes in daylight hours that some in the starved areas can see fall to the ground
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Models starting to come into better agreement from overnight runs for parts of the SE and think the Met Office's map from Thursday for Sundays risk is spot on. The Pivot looks to happen about 50 miles west of London along the M4 Corridoor. I have a horrible feeling some places like my location could run the risk of not seeing any snow from this along with the North Kent and Essex and Suffolk Coasts and ECM could indeed by that stage be 9 from 9 with failed snow precip guidence which tells you all you need to know about that model going forward. Obviously we dont know where the Pivot is going to occur yet but 75% of the better models all seem to be singing from the same hymn sheet as it stands. Saturday : Hit and Miss Wintry Showers of Rain, Sleet, Graupel and Snow not really worth bothering about unless you luck out and get a heavier one for 45 minutes which gives a centimetre or 2. Sunday : Areas to the West and South West of London could hit the jackpot with 3-7cm of Snow with places like the Surrey Hills and Southern Most part of the Chilterns 10-15cm in luckier spots with any heavier precip areas. Jackpot zones looks to be Surrey, Hampshire (Not Coastal) West Sussex (Not Coastal) Berks If I was having a sunday stroll the Surrey Hills, Southern Chilterns or the western Part of the South Downs would be good for some sledging. Have fun those in the western parts of the SE