Paul Sherman

Very Stormy and Disturbed 5 day period coming up with no respite for the Deep South and South East all the way through to Saturday. Today am expecting some stunning structured Supercells in the Texas Panhandle and Western Oklahoma Tomorrow sees a better Tornado risk in Central Oklahoma and Western North Texas Thursday could be another Moderate Risk day with the possibility of Strong Violent Tornadoes again Saturday could also pose a big risk of damaging weather across the South East

Yh this East North Easterly from the HIGH Pressure is going to do us zero favours in this set up undercutting into the Storms. The temp here in SE Essex is 8c with a freezing cold wind

Lol @ Chris posted the same time

Agree with Flash Bang. The nature of the Bifurcated steering flow will see bands of storms moving north with the western end moving NNW and the Eastern Portion moving NNE. Meaning no area should really be favoured from West Devon to Kent. Its a duckshoot really

Err I live here ? Are people not even allowed to have a smoke in their garden lol

Lol you should come down to the Coast about 15 miles to your South East. Here in Leigh On Sea with a stiff easterly it is bloody freezing and takes layers of skin off ya in that wind - Brrrrrr

Yh have friends in Sussex who have a South View of the furthest East cell and they are watching the Storm Top light up

Yh there clearly is some MUCape around in the channel as storms are reforming. Could be a bonus for you guys on the South Coast - Keep em peeled

It wont make it guys, its rooted at the surface and once it leaves land and travels over the colder sea it will fizzle. Tops were at 35,000ft so impressive considering the temps were only 22c over there but Cape was around 1,400jkg Tomorrow is a whole different animal though with thundery rain then thundery showers working off MUCape and the elevated nature of the storms means the Channel should not kill so many.

Hmmmm - Might this Prelim rating be upgraded - The plot thickens with that brick built structure

NWS Jackson have put out quite a few damage reports already - Although crucially some of them have not been finished as the damage path is too long and darkness came so they will resume today. Bassfield to NW of Laurel one has a Prelim Rating of EF4 at this time with a few EF3's listed as well

Yh this is going to be up there and on the borderline I think mate Are we going to get the first EF5 since 20th May 2013 - Think if we get through this summer it will be the longest time on record between EF5's

Chatanooga (Tennessee) Tornado which claimed 10 lives has been rated as EF3

Gotta say at this time none of the damage pictures I have seen warrant an EF5. Possibly Low to Moderate EF4 Damage but again most of the houses are NOT anchored down and poor building regs all around. EF5 scours asphalt from the roads and debark trees and sweeps well built brick structures, not seeing any of that so far

Absolutely disgusting behaviour from Some of the So Called Chasers out there yesterday including Derek Smith who has form for being a complete reckless Yahoo over the past few years to the point of only having 1 point left on his license. These people are NOT Saving Lives in any way. And for information purposes on the videos of crossing the Median driving over live power poles, around fallen trees into oncoming traffic this was not to escape another large tornado it was to catch upto the Wedge that had just crossed the Highway in front of them, the 2nd storm at the time was well to their North West so complete and utter b oll ocks to try and wriggle out of it that way. I would send the Vids to the MSP (Mississippi State Patrol) and throw the book at him as we dont need this POS in the Storm Chase Community.

Looks to be tempering down here as well - Certainly not a lot of growth in the TCU as there was earlier

Booming away here in SE Essex - Woohoo

Yh definate CZ happening running from West of London right off to the Essex Coast just south of Clacton. Numerous cells have been rolling along the same line about 10 miles North of my location and another one going up to my North west to join the line.

Some strong convection down here now, huge anvil to my west (London Storm) and also something going up about 10 miles to my North near Chelmsford

Nice TCU and convection happening in South Essex as well, one of the tops has a Cap (Pileus) over the top at the moment

Hmmm Not so sure about the quiet pattern Sunday looks like a borderline High Risk to me.

Hi Guys An update for you in relation to the remaining Tours 3, 4, 5 and 6 for Tornado Season 2020 We have taken the unprecedented decision to cancel the remaining tours for this year. All guests on these tours should have received an email outlining options going forward regarding Full Refunds or to roll over a tour to 2021. The Arizona Monsoon Tour is not affected at this time. Regards Paul

Hi Lea If you look just below this thread there IS an announcement which has been made.

High Risk will be Issued by 16z in my opinion if the HRRR continues to be bold, other models not so bold it has to be said. 50-60mph Movers and PWATS around 2 " equals good luck seeing these ground scrapers which should be HP in nature along the Warm Front

Hi Guys Wanted to start a thread with regards to the Ongoing effects of Covid-19 and the Upcoming Tornado Tours that are run through Netweather and WeatherHolidays and try to keep updating this Thread regularly over the next few weeks for all members on here who are booked onto the Tours. We have already taken the unprecedented decision to cancel Tours 1 and 2 already and anybody booked on these tours should have already received an email outlining your options going forward be it to receive a full refund or to roll your tour over to 2021. The Tours span the dates listed below. Tour 1 - 5th May until the 16th May Tour 2 - 16th May until the 27th May We are currently keeping track of the ongoing virus on a day by day and week by week basis for the remaining 4 Tornado Alley Tours and the Arizona Monsoon Tour and will update accordingly. The next Update on Tours 3 and 4 will be around Easter Time. The general consensus with regards to flights is for your flight operator to cancel your flight and you will receive a full refund or to accept a voucher which is valid to use on other dates. Going forward further if things improve dramatically over the next 6-8 weeks we will be open to the options of slotting tours into July which has an amazing Northern Plains season and/or into August for anybody who might want to roll their ticket onto the Monsoon Tours/Northern Plains Both myself and Paul M will be on hand if you have any questions but for now this is all we can update with at this present time. Regards Paul