snowwman
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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
snowwman replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Does seem unlikely with the strong vortex to the North, but GFS Para supports a shifting of the vortex to Siberia over the past 24 hours' available runs. This may be what ECM is in the process of doing in this chart. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
snowwman replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
For coldies, an excellent ECM run, and the GEFS output is decent, too, even to day 16. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
snowwman replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's tempting to think that- after all, it's what almost always happens in these scenarios. However, a check through charts dating to cold and snowy winters of the past often show "horrendous" set-ups, shortly before strong Northern blocking establishes. As far as GFS at 204 is concerned, it could easilly go Northerly from there. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
snowwman replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Definitely a cold cluster in there towards the end of the run, though. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
snowwman replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Latest available ECMWF ensemble at mean for D10 maintains low heights into the Med, just about, and certainly leaves a reload of the Northerly open: . -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
snowwman replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just what I was thinking. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
snowwman replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So basically, from what I can make out, it's done no worse than GFS and may even be somewhere between GFS and ECMWF. Tells me that perhaps we should taking this model's output more seriously. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
snowwman replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'm interested in finding- out how GFS Para has performed since it became functional. Anyone have any stats? -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
snowwman replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Indeed, this is interesting. I noticed that yesterday's 12Z ECMWF retrograded the Siberian high, so this idea has support. -
Stratosphere temperature watch - 2016/17
snowwman replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
And we didn't have a weak (or strong) 10hPa vortex that winter, before the very cold February 1986. -
Stratosphere temperature watch - 2016/17
snowwman replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Haven't found a close anologue, but examining some of the winters in the list here: https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/wind_1985_MERRA2_NH.html I can't find any relationship between 10hPa wind speed and direction and surface cold in the UK, even factoring- in delays, but then haven't run a comprehensite analysis. Others may conclude otherwise. -
Stratosphere temperature watch - 2016/17
snowwman replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
It's worth noting that the models in the above MJO chart have differing end-points. You have to examine each one separately to have a better idea of what they're saying. One might think, for example, that UKMO goes to the 25th, whereas is doesn't- the end of its run is much closer in, and that by said date might be much more impressive. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
snowwman replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Remarkable stuff from the GFS ensembles- everything from an Easterly to a Northerly! -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
snowwman replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The important thing is don't take my word for it- I'm not a pro and have very limited access to data, and that data might contradict other data, but I concluded in honesty what I did from what I had. I would hope that any of what we know about the strat would be of a better quality than my own research, and that human error is minimized, in the implications for the model output. And about the shape of the vortex, exactly, Steve- that's what it's about. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
snowwman replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's surprizing how much variation there is between sources. As you suggest, it depends on how you define them. I do wonder, given all this, whether the weather models have properly integrated what we think we know about SSW data into their output. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
snowwman replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
28th January: http://www.google.co.uk/url?q=http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/martius%2Bpolvani%2Bdavies-GRL-2009.pdf&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwiS9uf5q-zQAhUnDcAKHU-lC2oQFggQMAA&usg=AFQjCNHwBsKhcXo9vyQQs7Z8d0W3ruKn4A , so couldn't have caused it. Not a criticism of your reaearch, Steve- in fact I'm a fan of your posts. Just thought I'dd add a little of my own research so we wouldn't be as worried about 10hPa forecasts from various models! -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
snowwman replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Sub zero. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
snowwman replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
As I recall, the SWW in 1962 happened way after the cold set in on in late December. I'll try to recover some of the data and get back to you. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
snowwman replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
As I recall, I factored that in, and even went to 4 weeks. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
snowwman replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'd like to re run my analysis, but I concluded the last time that a split strat is positively harmful for our chances of cold.