Rob Walker
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Posts posted by Rob Walker
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3 minutes ago, SouthwestChaser said:
Yep, track is basically certain now, given it not only exists now, but is just a few hours away from landfall. It would be a huge shock if it moved even 50 miles north at this point.
Would it be a "huge shock"?
Pretty sure there's still more miles of variance than that in the latest various model runs
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Hi Nick, informative post as always.
I believe however one of the map graphics is incorrect, the "Actual rainfall totals so far this month" on your post. (which shows different figures to if you go directly to the quoted source of starling roost weather)
An example, which shows Wattisham in the east having over 300% of rain totals in the percentage anomaly map directly above, but (what i believe to be the incorrect) image below claiming yet only 65mm of rain so far this october? instead of the 213.8mm which the link to the source displays as it's recorded October rainfall so far (
Starlings Roost Weather
STARLINGSROOST.DDNS.NET)
I only noticed this because I was looking near my sisters (she'd said they thought they'd had way more rain than usual) and found it hard to believe the october monthly rainfall for anywhere in east anglia was implied by these two graphics to be sub 25mm?!
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Interesting thread, albeit slight leaning toward unsubstantiated downbeat predictions (as many moans/ramps threads do lol), but some very interesting stats!
Personally, I'll be hoping for either a warmer or much sunnier summer with some shorter, wetter interludes, that hopefully lasts through and past august this year.
I was late to the vegetable sowing this year (recovery from major surgery) so I could do with the growing season extending a bit longer than the average to make up for later sowings/planting out.
Allotment and garden have required a lot of watering past month already this year (central southern england) so actually quite glad for the coming showery rain next few days; and looking slightly more probable there will be a settled and somewhat warmer spell come next week (here at least) which should give all the plants a boost!
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11 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Not a great deal of difference between the 12 and 18Z on the NetWx SR model.
18Z:
12Z:
Timings and depth of pressure are quite stark between these and the Euro4.
Slight shift eastwards? Little difference otherwise.
Will be up early tomorrow and intrigued to see if this does strengthen our or not. Regardless looks like a horrible commute for many!
Also, Anyone looked at the predicted rainfall totals? Was just wondering if these are increasing alongside the models forecasting the higher winds?
Had an awful lot of rain here over the last week or so!
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Further details:
A weather system will move northeastwards across the UK on Thursday bringing widespread strong winds. Inland gusts of 50 mph are likely with gusts of 60-65 mph in exposed locations around Wales and western England. There remains a small chance that this system will intensify as it moves northeastwards bringing even stronger winds to southwest England, Wales and on into northern England and southeast Scotland. If this occurs, gusts of 70-80 mph could be seen, mainly in exposed locations, bringing increased likelihood of more significant disruption. In either case, winds will strong by late morning across southern and western England and Wales, then by mid afternoon across northern England and southeast Scotland. Heavy rain is also likely to affect southern and western England as well as Wales, and following on from recent wet weather this may lead to some very localised surface water flooding.
The above is from the MetO weather warning on my local forecast. It's the sentence (I've highlighted in bold) that caught my attention this evening.
Something to keep an eye on as this develops further?
Will affect rush hour traffic and morning commutes across south/west England and south/west Wales on current predictions. -
Further details:
A weather system will move northeastwards across the UK on Thursday bringing widespread strong winds. Inland gusts of 50 mph are likely with gusts of 60-65 mph in exposed locations around Wales and western England. There remains a small chance that this system will intensify as it moves northeastwards bringing even stronger winds to southwest England, Wales and on into northern England and southeast Scotland. If this occurs, gusts of 70-80 mph could be seen, mainly in exposed locations, bringing increased likelihood of more significant disruption. In either case, winds will moderate by late morning across western England and Wales, then by mid afternoon across northern England and southeast Scotland. Heavy rain is also likely to affect southern and western England as well as Wales, and following on from recent wet weather this may lead to some very localised surface water flooding.
The above is from the MetO weather warning on my local forecast. It's the added sentence (I've highlighted in bold) that caught my attention this evening.
Something to keep an eye on as this develops.
Will affect rush hour traffic and morning commutes across south/west England and south/west Wales based on current predictions. -
48 minutes ago, Rapodo said:
That is a massive downgrade tomorrow for Dorset east on latest BBC weather!! Looks crap with hardly anything hitting Dorset tomorrow. Guess it's gone west.
My BBC forecast looks actually better this afternoon so don't think it's gone too far (Salisbury), maybe they're just playing tentative with the graphics now?
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While I'm enjoying the favourable "corrections" so far in tonight's GFS for any southerners hoping to see some of the white stuff, and the rather decent looking ICON run; I'm still fairly apprehensive about the chances until I see this trend continue tomorrow.
Just seems like there a lot of uncertainties regarding Friday and on into the weekend that I feel still need to be resolved by the models somewhat over the next 24/48h, certainly before I get behind any trend! (whether staying cold or getting milder) -
14 minutes ago, radiohead said:
06Z ICON 120
2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:GFS 0z shows this also, turns back to rain readily then onwards though as the mild air is introduced
6 days away still. Reading to much into the specifics of these charts surely?
I think we see the trend for questions over the event toward the south, will it be rain or snow or something in between? ...Will the event occur as its currently forecast? Probably not imo, it is still too early to call at this stage.
I will hold fire to see whether the models come to (or continue to come to) agreement in a day or twos time before taking gospel in those chart cherry-picking for Friday.
I for one am very interested to see how this all develops! Models are, after all, subject to change - interesting runs ahead!
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5 minutes ago, Rob Walker said:
Seems to be a slight shift north and west of the coldest uppers from this run? (Thinking compared to previous model runs and that of the overall picture as well)
Great run for bitter uppers across the land - snow fest too?
That said, not much buffer to the south if that element comes into play too hard.... could be hinting at a slightly shorter spell of more intense cold maybe? - Being purposefully tentative in my wording you might noticeOkay I think I may just have to take that back....
Obviously was lulled into getting twitchy there! -
Seems to be a slight shift north and west of the coldest uppers from this run? (Thinking compared to previous model runs and that of the overall picture as well)
Great run for bitter uppers across the land - snow fest too?
That said, not much buffer to the south if that element comes into play too hard.... could be hinting at a slightly shorter spell of more intense cold maybe? - Being purposefully tentative in my wording you might notice-
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16 minutes ago, stodge said:
I'm being slightly provocative, Rob. ECM at T+264 isn't an easy chart to call and you have to hope heights will rise over Scandinavia otherwise it's probably game over as the Atlantic re-asserts.
GFS calls time on the cold spell as does JMA which does so incredibly quickly.
With UKMO there's no route back for milder air as far as I can see. Maybe GFS is being over-progressive as it often is but JMA takes the cold air so far north the milder air gets in to the south.
The thing is everyone today has complained about "southward correction" but ARPEGE is looking like a solid chart for cold if it can get the HP into Greenland.
My chart of the day so far is NAVGEM 12Z at T+180:
FIM 12Z at the same time close behind:
Note how the LP are kept far to the south.
Ahh the ole devils advocate approach I see. To hook, line and sinker me.
You do raise some valid points I won't deny, and hadn't looked too closely at the NAVGEM, yes that +180 chart does look tasty!
The concern with the UKMO run is surely its southwards correction/and delays in the cold and extent of reaching our shores? It was still a decent run for the longer stint and those in the south/east intially.
And I still think you are undervaluing that ECM run; I mean when you're looking as far out as T+264 to pick fault a lot can change by then anyway aha
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15 minutes ago, stodge said:
...so for me UKMO is far superior to GFS and ECM this evening.
Erm I'm not so sure about that stodge. I mean I do get your point about prolonged cold; but "UKMO is far superior" to the ECM?, I must disagree. That ECM was one to bank.
To be honest I think quite a few people saw the UKMO as a bit of a let down run in comparison; nevermind far superior!-
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Gust of 93mph recorded at Capel Curig around midnight.
Arpege hinted at some more rapid deepening I hear... seems the pressure is a tad lower at center than forecast maybe? nearly 980mb and dropping thought they had 987mb for midnight idk.
Guess will just have to wait if was a one off guster or whether its picking up more than forecasts were trending towards!-
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Had the second power flicker in the last half an hour, seems like the gusts are quite strong around the downpours still!
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34 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Hurn airport recorded a gust of 55mph just after midnight. I am totally confused as to why it went so quiet here. o_O
Had strong winds just after the squall line, an hour or so of calmer winds, and now after a recent downpour; the winds are really picking up again here.
Can even hear a few of the gusts out there through the new double glazing with all the windows shut which is quite unusual past two years I've been in this house!-
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4 minutes ago, lassie23 said:
Big storm heading for the UK this weekend, could be as rough as Ophelia, but will affect more of the country, strongest winds in the south
Yeah I had noticed that on some of the models too.
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2 hours ago, Rob Walker said:
Looking at the very latest satellite images I wouldn't be at all surprised if it wobbled back east as it moves closer to land.
The models do seem to agree on a shift the centre westward along the coast (at least for now) but wouldn't quite go as far as to say any particular model run has called it yet, and not so sure myself seen plenty of last hours directional changes from systems of this intensity before!7 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:Ophelia on the other hand after a northward push, seems to be moving increasingly eastwards now.
I refer to my earlier post!
And yes totally agree on with your other comment is almost surreal how warm and muggy it is down south this morning!-
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5 minutes ago, The Eagle said:
Care to elaborate? aha
Hope everyone is taking necessary precautions over there! -
Well it looks considerably stronger on the https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-9.34,50.35,2974/loc=-9.743,48.543 graphic this morning than it did yesterday evening!!! .... not sure if that counts for anything.
Looking at the very latest satellite images I wouldn't be at all surprised if it wobbled back slightly east as it moves closer to land.
The models do seem to agree a shift the centre westward along the coast (at least for now) wouldn't quite go as far as to say any particular model run has called it yet though; seen plenty of last hours directional changes from systems of this intensity before! -
I was just going to mention where has this all come from? I just checked my local forecast and it shows the thunder icon (on the bbc) and check radar (because there's some meaty looking clouds about here) and lo and behold there a storm building (and quite a few isolated cells developing too!)
Was this even forecast? Can't seem to remember seeing a storm forecast issued on here for today.....1 minute ago, Lynxus said:Woooooooooo
Thunder and lightning.
Very heavy rain.. just coming towards Gloucester airport
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8 minutes ago, Jcweather said:
Think you could be right
I dunno, Petorious might be wrong if that one splitting north of alderney makes it across the channel - it could just develop into something juicy for a few folks. It's continuously growing on rain radar since formation and structure looks a tad more stable than some of the other cells.... Who knows though bit early to call either way I would say.
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10 minutes ago, Lynxus said:
I wouldnt worry too much.
A) Plenty building to the south.
B) They wont head NE for long.That stuff South of exeter will explode when it reaches land. I suspect the south will be very busy soon.
I hope so, I just missed out on the storm passing through bournemouth/southampton
looked good for a while but swerved away to the east of me - heard the thunder but just got the edge and lots of rain.
Still surprisingly warm here and good signs of further development in the channel! -
20 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:
All this nonsense about the French storm is a waste of time! If you look at the rain radar and read the strike map properly you'll see it's a diagonal band of storm cells moving north and slowly dying off from the western side.
The rain swathe is also headed north but with a swirly-whirly style which is also making the strike map appear to show storm motion favouring an eastward track.
Reading what I have I expect this French Guff rubbish to die-off over the next hour and new storms to intensify in their place to marry-up with the sun going down.
Who wants lame day-time storms when you can wait a bit and have a night-time spectacle!?
Sounds about right to me!
aha
looked good for a while but swerved away to the east of me - heard the thunder but just got the edge and lots of rain.
Storm Ciarán
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Pulses of frankly sensational rain here near Salisbury, occasional thunder and lightning nearby.
Ears now popping quite a lot!
Might not turn out to be the wind event for the south that might've been, but i wouldn't expect this in a November storm; quite dramatic!