northwestsnow

January 17

I'll drop by to read how things are Shaping up in the background ..

Fingers crossed we get an Easterly,preferably before mid Feb as my interest wanes thereafter although I understand that isn't the case for everybody.

I semi retire in July so will only be working 3 months a year thereonin ,I'm really hoping we get a nice summer and Dickens December surely thats not too much to ask !!

January 17

FWIW I'd stab at a Sceuro High for the beginning of Feb which might produce a chilly feel ..

We defo don't want to see the TPV getting comfortable over Greenland..

January 17

Well I've done that much chasing it's definitely time to take a step back for now ..

As Arnie once said ,I'll be back !!

EC day 9 says it might be a while !

January 16

41 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The stamps in FI starting to look better, NH PV slowly being destroyed and heights should start pushing into it. My guess - proper winter arrives 03-05 Feb - from the NE. ️

We need to start seeing improvements in FI soon - rest of Jan looks a complete write off.

Mustn't grumble we have a covering here ,first one since early Dec mind.

January 15

Just now, AO- said:

Another small remark:

Despite the zonal flow, the precipitation signal is low for the 25th onwards. This might imply a block in the wrong place. Probably over Europe.

Trust me it's better than wind and rain

I think there is just about enough going on to hope for change into Feb...

January 15

Such a shame the south look like JUST missing out

Hopefully some further North into Cumbria NI and Scotland hit the jackpot over the next 48 hours ..

NWP looks awful after Thurs, we need the PV to go and get a life away from Greenland.

January 14

Working so no time to read everything but EC12z is a BIG upgrade on 850s

48hrs

72

96

Mild sector downgraded..

January 14

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Yeah there will be bits of snow around and locally significant accumulations there's quite an influx of instability off the Irish sea. I was just referring to my local area with the towel post.

You'll get a covering 100 %.

January 14

Well this is very odd !!

meto have a snow warning out Tues Wed and Thurs...

I'm really flummoxed now!

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

It's 5050 sorry I can't give any more detail our snow showers here in Cheshire / Derbyshire /Staffordshire depends on the NW flow ahead of the trough & the trough being sufficiently small. The trough is looking a little stronger on output now which will introduce more of a WSW wind reducing this risk, but in turn this would increase the risk of significant snow say from North Manchester northwards. How significant the trough is on arrival can not be predicted yet so the areas most at risk from snow can't really be nailed down yet.

This is why the UKV has the snow showers missing the south of the region but has the front stalling over the North Pennines.

TBH it's a lot of effort for a few flurries / temporary snow events.

I also feel the lack of snow events is beginning to affect by ability to predict these events with the precision I used to.

Bring on summer & thunderstorms for me now.

I can understand a warning for Tues ,esp higher ground.

Wed and Thurs seems really odd.

January 14

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

I have a warning for Wednesday for snow and yet I see on the Met Office app "sun and crescent moon symbols", in other words gin clear.

Model thread being reduced to whether

Thurs seems to be appearing in forecasts think BBC mention significant snow ,where are they looking

January 14

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Our big lass is clearing her windpipe after viewing the GFS06Z. I may join in for a sing aswell.

Just as you typed that METO have us in a warning lol

January 14

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Mmmm, i think I’ll not get too confident on seeing snow in my next of the woods - Unless the next GEFS move the precip mean even further north

GFS was incredible for the south , prolonged snow and look at those temps..

January 14

1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

Wed and Thurs look dry and sunny

Yes I was surprised to read the BBC text for Thurs

January 14

METO updated 4am

Risk of disruptive snow tue

BBC downgraded Tues but now talking of significant snow Thurs...

January 14

EC 00Z midnight wed

covering to the coast

East of the region probably faring best let's hope we see a few more upgrades -

Uppers -6 dew points just about zero and below ,normally I'd say around 150m required but there are so many variables at play and I'm outta my depth in these borderline set ups ....

Some clever chaps here who will be able to offer excellent analysis...

Hopefully as many as possible get some cover because EC suggests it will last tue - sat ...

January 14

39 minutes ago, severe snowstorm said:

No air frost here, got down to 1.1C earlier currently 1.6C.

Metoffice getting keener on the snow risk for Tuesday, now mentioning possible disruptive snow for the region. I expect an early warning will be issued later this morning for some parts of the region at least.

I've just posted EC det seems to have downgraded the mild sector this morning..

Uppers a little lower for Tues...