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NHC are forecasting 100knot winds at Landfall which equates to 115mph - Cat 3. It would be comparable in strength to Hurricane Frances which hit Florida last year

Its a one off synoptic event... every day produces different synoptic conditions and it appears that the current synoptic situation has made this Hurricane formation possible. But that said, we probably wont see a Hurricane form in this area again for a long long time. The SSTs are just not warm enough - this is a freak anomaly. This is true, but I think we understand the general rule that Hurricanes tend not to form in cooler seas. They normally need SSTs of 27c, the fact that this Hurricane has formed in SSTs of 24c obviously bucks the trend. We must however realise that this is a freak exception to the rule and unlikely to alter our thinking a great deal. On the plus side it does give us an opportunity to learn what conditions are needed for development of a tropical system over cooler seas.

I was bang on . However lets not forget that although its *only* a Cat 3, this is a major storm. Lets hope casualties are kept to an absolute minimum.

Indeed she is falling apart at the moment... still time for her to recover though.. keep watching.

Yes, NHC states that the eyewall is thin, which obviously means that eyewall replacement is likely. But I would say additional strengthening even if it forms a new eyewall is relatively slim. I would expect landfall at about Cat 3 - 120mph winds.

According to this recon she is losing wind speed. Max gusts of 126KT in the last recon equates to about 140mph top winds, sustained winds are probably nearer 125mph making it a Cat 3.

Hey Kaz, Not sure where you are looking but the eye is visible on this satelite image:

The storm has actually weakened in the latest Recon compared to the previous Recon. As mondy has pointed out the TS seems to be reorganising itself, it should then develop rapidly.

Latest Recon shows no strengthening in terms of wind speed. 000 URNT12 KNHC 191753 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE A. 19/17:42:50Z B. 23 deg 03 min N 075 deg 50 min W C. 850 mb 1385 m D. 50 kt E. 306 deg 025 nm F. 041 deg 060 kt G. 311 deg 052 nm H. 994 mb I. 14 C/ 1519 m J. 22 C/ 1524 m K. 15 C/ NA L. NA M. NA N. 1 345/ 8 O. 0.03 / 5 nm P. AF302 0518A RITA OB 06 MAX FL WIND 60 KT NW QUAD 17:26:40 Z

The Hurricane is unlikely to strengthen further because the eye wall is open in the south-west corner. If the eye wall were to close it would allow the storm to build in strength again.

Latest from NHC: ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 902 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT. She is strengthening again after completion of the eye wall replacement.

Thanks Mondy - jeez and thats just from the wind!! This is more like something out of a disaster movie - incredible.

The next few hours will reveal that - NHC think it will weaken before it hits - but their understanding of fluctuations in intensity is limited as they openly admit. Personally I would guess on present evidence that it will hit between 165-175..to be honest it doesnt matter - the damage will be nothing short of disasterous whether it is 165mph or 175mph.

Latest from NHC: ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 907 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT. 185KT gusts = 213mph I think you will all join me in saying a prayer for New Orleans!!

This is rather a bold statement but on present evidence New Orleans will be anihiliated - I remember doing a case study on New Orleans when the Mississippi River flooded in the 90s and this is going to be far worse. Forgetting the 175mph winds for a second - just the storm surge could leave the city under 10-15feet of water.

166Knots on the surface would equate to about 153Knots which is approximately 176mph.

American Houses are generally built of wood - they are not as solid as English houses... if people are sensible they will listen to the local authorities and move to the storm shelters which are normally schools. These are brick build and much safer.

Well what can we say boys and girls, this Hurricane is looking the real deal. I was in Florida about this time last year and rode out Hurricane Frances - that's looking rather insignificant in comparison to this bad boy. It has reached Cat 5 now and further strengthening looks likely, I could see this landing at 170mph. The prospects for New Orleans are desperate, a direct hit with those wind speeds will devastate the city. Not only this but N'O' sits in a basin and is extremely vunerable to the storm surge. Reports suggest the storm surge to be between 15-20feet but I feel with further strengthening it will be nearer to 30ft, potentially flooding the entire city. The drop in pressure is most worrying - it must be noted that last year Hurricane Ivan produced 90feet waves in the open ocean once it reached Cat 5. I would expect that Katrina is producing similar if not bigger waves right now. Of course the shelf off the coast will reduce the wave height as the storm heads towards land but the wave height will be a concern when it is factored in with the storm surge. Right now I would love to be in New Orleans - but I am extremely concerned about the 100000 or so who are expected to try and ride this storm out!! If that many stay the death toll could be several hundred. This is a very dangerous storm and people need to acknowledge this. Is this going to be worse than Hurricane Andrew??? I have no doubt this will be far more serious. Keep watching folks.

Here in Bedford its been one hell of a night. Thunderstorms raged constantly from shortly after 9pm right through until 11:30pm. Without a doubt the most intense storms ive ever experienced. CGs, CCs all over the place. The most amazing lightning and loudest roars of thunder ive ever heard. T'Storms still floating around in the distance. Total Rainfall in last 2 hours alone: 20.2mm

Generally depends where you are though Nick... The Met Office station in Bedford is located near the River Ouse which is at least a degree cooler than where i am in the suburbs. I'm prepared to accept a degree on inaccuracy in my weather station. But at 13:20 the temp was probably still be at least 32C.

Astonishingly Hot here in Bedford. My WS3600 weather station is recording the following: Temp: 33.8C (Yes thats in the shade :o - inside the traditional white weather box located at the bottom of the garden!!) Humidity: 39% Wind Speed: 3.3mph Wind Direction: SSW Very little cloud here

31.8C here in Bedford ATM and rising sharply in the last 10mins due to cloud breaking up. Humidity has dropped to around 40% Winds light from a southerly direction.

We have hit the Magical 30C here in Bedford. 30.3C recorded at 1:03pm by my weather station. Winds steady SSE at 3mph Humidity 45% Lovely day outside

Currently 17.1C here in Bedford with Hazy Sunshine. Maximum temp today was 18.1C at 13:39

Lovely Day here in Bedford.. Conditions at 12:30: Temp: 17.1C Wind Speed: 0.7mph Wind Direction: Southerly Humidity: 64% Pressure: 1010.7mb Sunny Intervals with good visibility.