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SxK

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Everything posted by SxK

  1. SxK
    Not wishing to be mean but I am not seeing why BBC are saying there will be storms. Models almost all exclusively show a dry night. Would love to be proved wrong but I am wondering if the BBC forecasts are based on the 12Z models which were more promising. 18Z are bone dry.
  2. SxK
    Timings just slightly out on UKMO Gav, they both come out an hour earlier than you indicated above
  3. SxK
    The end of an era. A huge loss to NW but do hope you post again from time to time. All the best in your new job
  4. SxK
    Do not be surprised if the midlands ends up being too far north. Models frequently overdo the northward extent of PPN. M4 corridor could be the sweet-spot.
  5. SxK
    Radar picking up something in the estuary. Early surprise? :-)
  6. SxK
    GFS shifts heights a good 75-100miles further south than 06z upto +72. Not a good picture if you want to see anything other than a dusting in the extreme E & SE.
  7. SxK
    One to watch. Not only for Jamaica/Cuba but also once it clears Cuba. ECM has this turning towards and smashing into the eastern seaboard as a sub 940mb LP. GFDL/GFS take it out to sea fortunately but forecasters shall be watching this very closely indeed. NHC are saying: THE INTENSITY FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE COMPLEX AFTER THE CYCLONE EMERGES NORTH OF CUBA. WHILE ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOW STRONG SHEAR OVER SANDY...THEY ALL ALSO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN THE CENTRAL PRESSURE AND AN INCREASE IN THE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO BARCLINIC ENERGY FROM INTERACTION WITH THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT SANDY WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN THE PROCESS. THAT BEING SAID...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE ACTUALLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
  8. SxK
    Boar - super post - very objectively put and also very helpful for all on the forum to learn a thing or two.
  9. SxK
    18z are a downgrade for snow across the board.
  10. SxK
    Light snow in Billericay
  11. SxK
    Keep the faith BLUNT. We will have at least 10cm here in Billericay :-). Radar looks solid, lots of heavy snow to come
  12. SxK
    CV the promise as you call it was at t240 a few days ago and is gradually coming into the reliable. Ecm has maintained the trend GFS is moving closer with this evenings runs.
  13. SxK
    Cold not moving further away. It was at t192 last night now t168.
  14. SxK
    Meto have just widened the yellow alert for wind in southern England to include London and Southern Essex.
  15. SxK
    The last strong winds in the south may have been gale force but they are forecast to be stronger tonight. The south hasnt had many wind events in recent times, I work in Insurance and have access to the Met Office commercial data on this and have checked back through the records. Latest model update suggesting sustained winds in East Anglia tonight of 45-50knots. That could produce 60-70mph gusts so the lack of a warning is ridiculous. The good thing about the low pressure system is that the winds will pass through quickly and will not be sustained at strength for too long, hopefully that will minimise damage to property.
  16. SxK
    Very surprised at the new warnings from Meto particularly for southern UK. Only yellow warnings for parts of Western/Southern Wales and then the southerly counties of England. Expected to see most of southern England under at least yellow warning with southern most counties under amber warning. NMM high res model showing gale force winds into most of southern England, not just the southern counties. These are the highest forecast wind speeds i have seen for southern England in several years.
  17. SxK
    I actually think 18z has huge potential past 300. Heights into Scandi with amplified jet! Anyway as you say unlikely to verify but thats the sort of thing i am looking for to spark an eventual change to cold.
  18. SxK
    Yes for those looking for snow this is perhaps the biggest hurdle. If as Chio puts it we need a few waves to knock over our sandcastle then by the time we get favourable strat conditions that impact our weather pattern we could be nearing March. I am not particularly enthusiastic about a canadian HP nor with the projected warming, time will tell but those expecting to see dramatic changes in the model output are sadly going to be disappointed. Without a SSW a lot of patience going to be required
  19. SxK
    Snowing in Billericay, Essex
  20. SxK
    The trend towards these heights northwest are probably due to more favourable forecasts for the NAO and AO. Will be interesting to see whether UKMO maintains the theme tonight
  21. SxK
    I think it is also worth noting that just a few days ago NAO was forecasted to go negative. Models are struggling at the moment.
  22. SxK
    Im not so sure thats what GP is hinting at.. A Finland based High is not a Euro High like that we have had recently. A Finnish High is much further north and might allow an easterly flow to develop. I personally think this is unlikely in the short to medium term but i can see this happening in the longer term (2-3 weeks). CFS has hinted at this in recent runs.
  23. SxK
    Correct hence the warnings for snow. GFS 06z still suggests front will be largely rain but NAE 06z goes with a major snow event for all areas north of London. There is still clear indecision amongst the models but this is where a human forecast comes into its own. Listen out for the Met Office warnings which should be updated shortly and then you will have a better idea. This is likely to be a nowcast/radar watch event.
  24. SxK
    I am in Kissimee just outside of Orlando in Florida. Raining here already but no real wind. I expect we will feel the effect of TS Barry at some stage.
  25. SxK
    We have just had a dusting in Bedford
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