jacke
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Posts posted by jacke
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1 hour ago, Catacol said:
Yeah - charts like this come thick and fast in most UK winters.
1 hour ago, Catacol said:Yeah - charts like this come thick and fast in most UK winters.
Well said Catacol! But Congratulations to DIS1970. You will be my first ignore! You must have been very eager to make a comment. Sad that it was so pointless without any justification. Not seen as much divergence in recent years at such short timescales. Records will show that any real cold is rare beyond 7 days. However, not unknown and the large scale differences showing beyond next Friday, albeit more showing a relative cold breakdown just confirms what the the more knowledgeable are saying, Be patient and don’t get hung up in what is far FI in these scenarios.
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1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:
Your missing the point mate..its not cherry picking,me and a few others are stating that GFS as been largely on its own,that's not to say its completely wrong either. Ecm ukmo mogreps for instance all seem to go against it! It appears the met go against it as well,so do we accuse them of cherry picking cause that model is not showing the outcome they think is most likely!
The tweets from Amy Butler also points out how she sees Greenland blocking to gain some traction next week due to the recent warming! Again gfs seems to go against this also! And trust me she's a dam good scientist. It also points out how the strat is potentially coming under further rounds of warming looking ahead...so models will again struggle until this is resolved,yet it appears gfs is struggling more than others.
In all honesty I can understand why @Scott Inghamloses his rag at times because some can't see the woods for the trees. Its getting to the point that if 6 models all went cold,yet just one gfs went against it some would still say im not liking this trend one bit...its all going wrong..we can never get a cold spell in the uk anymore..next year im going on holidays to Finland...the list goes on.
Op runs are but one run amongst 30 members on gfs,and 1 of 50 on the ecm model. Yet some call the outlook on that one run before even viewing all the other data! Im not having a dig at the masses on here,cause the best posters know this and will want to view all the data over numerous runs and over several days before making a call or changing there minds. So I would call cherry picking a situation when 90% of the data goes one way with only that small cluster of 10% showing something more favourable being the one that gets pointed out for favouritism...not the other way around.
Right on Matt, now get to bed lol.
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12 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:
Yes everything is going to plan I noticed you over reacted to another gfs run
Most would dream of the overall scenarios being shown by the majority. Everyday some early birds jump in on first few frames with their “it’s all over” comments without giving the run a chance to develop. Can you not wait a little then give an honest appraisal, if you still think it’s a poor run fine!
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2 hours ago, Alderc 2.0 said:
Battle ground snow is absolutely terrible for most in the south as it’s always rain.
That’s a firm statement, not born out by records. On or near the immediate coast snow will always struggle in these scenarios. Those records will also show that the best snowfalls for the south evolve from these weather types.
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3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:
You can't judge a science on previous failures! And it's usually folks saying it's all 10 days away! This time it's within 6 or 7 days.. The output is remaining steadfast and has had only a couple of minor wobbles..usually when a wobble comes,the big downgrades come. Not this time.. we are looking as solid as I've seen for a long long time.
Your first sentence should be made the best quote of the day. More and more on here keep comparing with the past! Go back just a few years and the matrix available were so different. Surely the time has come to comment on what we see now. Opinions on that will always differ but that,I thought, was the purpose of this thread. Taking the whole suites as they stand now I say that this weekend is finally a turning point for overall cold and from 60 years of weather watching a very typical cold spell with biggest risks of less cold in the south. It has always been that way.
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3 hours ago, markw2680 said:
Omg people get a grip. Wake up look on here to see downgrade, poor charts, egg on face etc etc. come straight out in a mood. Look on the actual models and think its variations which are to be expected when looking5/6/7-10 days away! Come back in here and go to second from last page to see….upgrades, backtracks etc etc. you get the gist, why can’t these certain ones chill out. Every single model run will differ in one way or another and yet WE ALL know this.
the cold is pretty much in our doorstep with possible snow for some. Longer term it’s dryer it’s colder, who knows what’s going to happen later next week, nobody knows certainly not the god damn GFS
Thank you Mark you have saved me a longer post. Shame on some of you early starters, learn some patience.
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Matt read Good!
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God to see you on here this evening Matt.
Goodness what do a few of you want on here? You must spend the bulk of your time trawling for the worst chart and comment, not because you think it’s plausible but just to ring your doom bell. Believe me I have been following the weather much longer than some of you have been born! Agreed his forum is here for everyone to have a say. But ask yourself do I honestly believe what I am writing? For what it’s worth for me the overwhelming evidence is for a slowish burn to colder weather. The high is still sorting itself out so no real dramas in the next week but very different to the last weeks. Sorry but will go back to my burrow and keep quiet.
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14 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:
Yes, but not persuaded otherwise by any of the content.
It all comes down to my belief that any options for average conditions should really be weighted by the observer (e.g. one run showing average temps is the equivalent of five anomalously cold/warm ones), given the modelling tends to move away from extremes in favour of more average conditions as T+0 approaches. This means that the mild options would need to be swept from the table to remove the threat. It's nice to be in a position to hope for that, but not likely for a while yet.
If I was you I would call it a night. You might cheer up in the morning
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Matt never stop, you make my day. My total addiction started in the winter of 63. Waking every morning to see if I would have to go to school. Cheering to see another bitterly cold start and knowing all the school outside toilets would still be frozen solid so school still shut.
what a difference to have advanced warning, if indeed the charts play out. 1963 was a bit like 1947 in that no one expected what was coming. Good to see the doom sayers a bit quieter now, Even if they end up right!
Nothing to match that on show yet me thinks but starting with gradual buildup will do for me.
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Lurky here with a plea not too delete this slightly off topic post. One of the joys for me is reading Matts posts, even allowing for the slight bias to cold
. Felt for you over your loss, my eldest brother passed away this Christmas Day on his 80th birthday. The downside those deliberate pessimists who don’t really look at Synoptics just want to stir, you know who you are!
What everything is showing me is a proper wintry spell, but gradual and probably overall long lasting. I have vivid memories of 1963 which may have had somewhat similar Synoptics but we simply didn’t have the information available in those days so it seemed to take everyone by surprise. Not expecting anything like that but watch the signals as they develop this spell into a good one for you youngsters
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A long term lurker, who I hope, you will allow to make a comment relating to some of the recent posts regarding comparisons with that 1962/63 winter and the the current F1 possibilities. I am well old enough to remember that winter. My location then and now is the Fens of North Cambridgeshire.
In truth that epic period took most forecasters by complete surprise. The week before the cold arrived here,(22nd Dec) had been particularly stormy and wet, Atlantic lows in dominance. The change was dramatic with a high moving in and setting in to the NE of the UK. There it stayed for much of the remaining winter into March. Obviously the amount of data available then could in no way compare to today. In my area we had heavy snow on Boxing Day but very little for the sixty day plus following. I read someone mentioned minor milder spells. Other than for some western areas that was hardly the case. Here for those 60 plus days the average mean did not reach 0C. The High pressure remained steadfast and only wobbled about causing some periods of stronger easterly winds and blizzard like days of the already fallen snow.
Im only a layman on weather forecasting but the point I am trying to make is that you need very specific conditions to get anywhere near that kind of winter. PS at my age think I could survive without it
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2 hours ago, Come rain snow or shine said:
In Peterborough - Boxing Day, I'm pretty sure. There may have been a light snow shower early xmas day... at maybe 7.30 a.m.
Yes Boxing Day in the Peterborough area, very heavy for these parts. Not much after through the whole freeze but that snow just hung around.
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1 hour ago, FetchCB said:
How do you know a cold spell is about to arrive?
1. The model thread turns into when is the breakdown coming thread
2. The regional thread turns into into its not going to arrive thread
Goodness my first venture into the Regional Thread. Not sure I should have bothered! Too many prams! For goodness sake let the cold get in first!!! There has not been a proper forecast of snow before the early hours. Put your apps where they belong in the LOO!!!!!
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1 hour ago, craigore said:
Here.
Quietly watching..
Pinching myself at the thought of this being extended into week 2...
Be a very cold continental feed given that paternal..
Think many of us lurking, but in shock that the charts keep giving. A good ten days minimum for us in the east is what it shows me.
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33 minutes ago, TEITS said:
Sometimes you need to use instinct and experience rather than simulated models. I have a very good idea of snowfall distribution across my area under the conditions suggested by the models for next week. Never forget how in the 80s an E,ly brought 1ft of snow in Peterborough in under 2hrs from a band of snow showers.
At times we can become too dependant on computer models. For example I just knew the GFS was way off with its handling of the low for this weekend. At one stage it even had the low move NW to Iceland against the huge block to our N. Instantly I knew this was wrong.
Yes TEITS and is just 20 miles South had about 3 inches. Incredible difference in 20 miles. Streamers and showers impossible to predict, just now watching. How do you average it out over a region I ask?
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3 hours ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
Not a chance it doesn't even look like a slider,this is looking more and more like a mini cold spell from sunday-wednesday.not even that severe in my oppinion,I think people have gone over the top
My goodness where is your evidence??????
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48 minutes ago, mbrothers said:
Suddenly this thread had become the ‘when will the cold spell that hasn’t arrived yet breakdown thread’ .
Please let's have a bit of the cold before all discussion on here relates to the breakdown! Goodness,still looking at ever changing charts for the next 4-5 days first.
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46 minutes ago, DCee said:
Midlands north event by the look of things, 12z is continuing the new trend away from the cold easterly (more for the south as things stand).
Lots of rain following behind with a an awful SW flow.
I expect the ECM and UKMO will follow the GFS soon.
Get a grip please, on what basis can you say that based on their current charts????
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42 minutes ago, danm said:
Sub -10c coming into the east. Plenty cold enough for convective snow showers to kick off.
Sorry but -9 is pretty cold uppers these days, plenty cold enough for conventional snow showers, how far they progress inland depends on other factors.
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26 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:
Nothing academic about that young man..Another reversal is putting us further into the cold picture a couple of weeks down the line.This could go down as the Winter that never went away.
Time for a comment from the " gull man" At last the charts have caught up! Remember last Friday I said that the number of gulls at the local waste tip had more than doubled The only reason could be cold weather moving in from the east, so they move inland. Warmest and best place? waste tips which give out their own heat and provide food. Checked today numbers increased again, would not expect more but they are settled in!Think I could patent a Gull weather forecast?Never knock nature!
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1 hour ago, Snowfish2 said:
I would. I'm 52
Wait until your 68 BOOM!
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1 hour ago, offerman said:
Best post of the week.
The charts are so inconsistent and especially further out where more often than not they downgrade cold potential .
just focus on the within five days for more reliability even with this the charts can be flippant .
good luck everyone who wants cold snow s as I do.
Sorry to correct you Offerman, not best post of the week, best post of the Winter! My goodness my heart goes out to some on here, very overall run exchange of emotion!
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2 hours ago, Arrows1986 said:
10 days is FI but you're right..it won't come off likes this..let people have their fun though!
When can we expect your analysis?
Would you like a pram for yourself if it does turn out something like this?
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
TEITS perhaps it’s because your location is close to mine that I am biased towards your comments lol. But so well said! Surely the main point of this thread and as a hobby is to say what you see from all the available info and give your forecast. Harping on past failures of the cold arriving gets us nowhere. I have seen more failures than most of you because of my age but reminding every other post is not fun. For what’s it worth the Thursday scenario will turn out as a real mix and the dividing line will be fairly straight somewhere across the midlands Snow showers the further north you go sleety rain on the border, rain to the south. For my area only just on the sea level mark normally experience sleety rain in these set ups. Following on to the weekend, still guesswork.