Weather Observer

What I find interesting about that chart is the spread at +192. The op is one of the mildest. One or two go close to minus 10. Having looked at weather charts since the 60’s, I feel this winter has a few cold surprises in the tank.?

If I were living like you 600ft above sea level in the north of England, I would not be too disheartened by the 240 mean and the prior charts. It’s us down south who will be robbed. ?

This has so far been a “traditional “ winter with all snow episodes midlands northwards. Living on the south coast for many years I remember the disappointment well. But it has not been the inexorably mobile Atlantic based dross of the last few years. Traditional winters often produced a decent cold spell, normally from the east, in February as I remember it rather than January. January only seemed to deliver in the more severe winters. The Ecm 10 day chart and the mean offers, tantalisingly, the prospect of something interesting. Well, I don’t know how the rest of you keep warm in winter- I do it by looking for charts loaded with ice and snow. Off we go again!?

The two big beasts were 1956 and 1987 which both barged in without a by your leave. Doing the arithmetic the next one is due anytime soon. Where is Law of Averages? Just for fun the 56 as it arrived is shown below. Returning to the present the ECM mean has been trending colder in the later reaches and we should extract something of interest for those of us of a cold persuasion. To use a sporting analogy at least we are on the fairway this winter after several years stuck in the club house.?

In the olden day’s that some posters have referred to, a failed easterly was a blink and you had missed it affair. With forecasts only out to 24/48 hours and no media hype only people like us on Netweather would have noticed. Now we have six days to salivate over a meto chart that would deliver ice and snow big time. Easterlies now even fail in FI ! But one thing I know is get the easterly in and it will write its own script. Another reason for Exeter caution. Hope it’s a thriller. Happy New Year?

Been enjoying the exchange on teleconnections in the model thread today. I sometimes feel model watching resembles a lot of people shooting at different moving targets at different distances, involving weapons rangeing from long range missiles ( the telecon boys) to pea shooters (GEM), then marking their own scoresheet and finally having a good old bust up about who did best. There is generally some agreement on T+0.

Evening, I have just worked out how to change my profile, but now feel all dressed up with nowhere to go.? The models have an ominous ring to them with FI seemingly only just this side of infinity. But there are upsides: it’s still only December, it’s not 2015, and the month will run out close to the mean temp. A normal winter, far better in my view than some of the last few. A normal winter springs a few surprises and can include a decent easterly, more often in the second half in my experience. Enough said. Probably time for a bout of festive amnesia. Good tidings to you all. ?

I was planning to slip in quietly to open my winter account. But not much chance of that! Just to say that those ECM means are the best I as a coldie have seen for several winters past and we are technically only just entering that season. In some ways they remind me of December 1981, one model and too early to get carried away I know. ? Just enjoy the ride.

As posters above have said, we now turn our attention to what is possible at the fag end of winter. I looked back at the synoptics of a few blocked winters like 1963/4 and 1975/6 and noted that the tendency for heights to reset themselves in places that did not support cold and snow was a strong one. And because these changes are so slow in themselves it can be frustrating. Like watching a GFS high in FI which follows us around like a mosquito. However, even in these unfavourably blocked winters their is usually a decent cold shot or two. So while I cannot say whether the last train has left the station, I wouldn't throw away the ticket yet. And when the synoptics are right, then March can deliver proper winter. Take the example below. 10cm of snow on the south coast, which for 2 days did not melt at all in brilliant March sunshine and was still lying in the shade a week later. If only!

I was looking at blocked winters and posted this one which brought snow in the south. Up to 30cm around Brighton according to Philip Eden.

Cleared up a few leaves in the garden. Not blowing all over the place like they usually do. Got to thinking about blocked winters in the past. 1963/4 was exceptionally so. England& Wales averaged 75mm in total for the winter. Highs seemed to swan around aimlessly all winter. Very boring after the delights of the previous winter. And yet, at least in England, we had two decent snow events. Charts below. Didn't seem a big deal at the time. But if we could eke out something similar in these snow starved times I think a lot of us would be satisfied.

I spend a lot of time on this thread, especially in Winter, because it gives me the opportunity to read between the lines of posters of all persuasions, those with technical competence and those with good weather instincts and make up my mind what the weather is likely to do. Since before Christmas I have watched as some of us have knocked the prospect of what could be the most interesting spell of Winter weather for a long time on the head because the long term signals are against it or the jet will ride over the top. Now it has appeared we will no doubt be scuppering it wth shortwaves. Blocked synoptics pools up cold air and the longer it lasts the greater our chances of hitting the jackpot. Great times. Weather watching should be fun and not need to come with a health warning

That would be a great call. One of my favourites from the archives is December 1938 when a high migrates from around Nova Zemyla to Scandinavia over a week or so. Unforeseen then and I wonder how well it would have been forecasted today?

Thank you to Lorenzo, for a great post. My faith in long term forecasters is restored. And what the Dickens It's only weather.

Yes, you are right. Remember it well. It was really cold. I was snowbound in the Chiltern. Guess I was thinking, as a hardened 1962/3 veteran, of the last sub zero cet

More long faces in here tonight than at an undertakers' convention. Can I offer my take on where we are now? I used to wonder why there had been no really cold December since 1890. The question was answered in 2009. 119 years! December rarely does cold until the last week. So still time for it to step up to the plate. Patience and yes more runs....

Booked my ticket on the trans Siberian express. Turn up at the station and find a notice "next train in 10 days time",or it was when I started typing. Was going to look at some golden oldie charts to entertain myself. Then I remembered there had been a very similar spell to the current cold one in 1962. The first week of December saw temps down to -11c in some parts of the south, for some the coldest night of the whole month. It was also the last smog as most of us still had coal fires. And thanks to Stewfox for the info on house prices then.Anyway it became milder with westerlies after that, but around the 22nd something happened which changed my life, I became a fanatical weather observer! The chart shows the coldest day in that spell. Not saying anything just a bit of fun as we wait

I agree with the frustration of some on here with the preoccupation with long term signals. It's like watching a movie where you see the smoke machine churning out fog in the foreground while the wood beyond is clear as a bell. By the time you get through the fog to the wood it has disappeared.

I keep thinking that I might venture a post in this thead. It informs me on prospects for my favourite weather, ice and snow. Comments on here have made the sea so choppy that every time I try to board it, the boat is somewhere else. Suffice to say, I gave up the chase about mid Feb last year. Only three months to go! And as others have said we are quids up synoptically compared with this time last year. Btw I remember 62/63 and we had to put up with a lot of boring old high pressure then before we hit the jackpot.

Good feeling about the coming winter. I think the models will be more "on topic" and we won't have to post all those golden oldies. I sense the models are toying with a Scandinavian high. GFS keeps pressure relatively high there throughout its run. It could nudge back in or we could have a full on incursion. Pre Christmas easterlies have been a rarity and can be wasted because of the warm North Sea. But no harm in hoping. We are due one and I don't buy the fifty heads argument. The next one is always going to be tails for me. Btw did you notice the rosy glow in the cumulus tops at sunset. There's ice in them clouds.

When it turns out that Ben Nevis is one metre higher than every schoolboy thought it was, I think I will give the models some slack, at least for a while.

I joined this thread this winter as an unreconstructed coldie, or do I mean oldie, another vetrane of the winter of 1978/9. Rubbish in the streets as the bin men were on strike, but a foot of fresh snow in Greenwich park just up the hill. This winter has dealt us a hand that was so bad that I can sense the frustration of even the most gifted and dedicated posters. Nothing original to offer, but hey ho silver lining, here's to the next time.

Not the first time, you only have to go back 115 years. To quote the Beach Boys "wouldn't that be nice"

I have hinted at this before, sometimes clumsily ,but whenever we hear the word SSW, all the normal rules here go out the window, e.g "keep to the models" and "anything beyond day 6 is FI". Instead we look forward to long fetch easterlies or artic blasts whose time frame extends into the far distance. A look at the current strat thread shows just how tentative our understanding of SSWs and their effect on weather is. Even the current Met quote posted by Knocker seems a bit bold to me. Never the less given the knowledge and enthusiasm of the strat posters and with a lot of us still hungry for cold and snow, doubtless we will be at it again next winter..

March is the month when the weather pendulum can swing the most, hence the old adage about the lion and the lamb. Looking at the models you might think that there is very little weather action in the offing. But possibly there is so much that the models cannot get a handle on it. Hence even more weird looking spaghetti charts than usual and the latest ensemble means showing even more paltry than usual pressure gradients in the latter part of their runs. Is this pathetic winter about to get up off the floor, take a sneaky swig of SSW and deliver one knockout blow, or if not, can the models finish it off now please.?