Weather Observer
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Posts posted by Weather Observer
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46 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:
Hi ,nothing for cold lovers , just posted it up and save and see how the model output looks like in a couple of days given the recent model output...
Anyweather's charts show us in the middle lane of a crowded 10 lane highway heading north. I was hoping he was going to show us the way to the exit. At least journey's end, the Arctic, will be cold.
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15 minutes ago, nick sussex said:Well they have happened in the past. But you need the perfect set up and balancing act between the block and the Atlantic trying to get in.
Too much of one or the other and you either get the block too strong and diverting low pressure further south or low pressure comes in from the sw at the weak point of the block.
At this point I'd settle for a strong ne flow and -15 uppers! lol Good for the UK and me here and we're all happy then!
January 29th 1954 was such a day. I was a tot, but it started my interest in cold weather and snow. It snowed all day in Hampshire with no wind and temperatures well below freezing. Seemed to me like sugar falling out of a grey sky.
The charts for the 18th and the 29th show how quickly it can change in what I believe was an El Niño year.
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3 minutes ago, Whether Idle said:
Hi. Are you expecting anything here? I think we are too far east. As luck would have it though I'm walking in the west Chilterns near Hemel Hempstead with a mate tomorrow so I'm hoping for something there!
You should be in luck. Ashridge/ Dunstable Downs best for snow from my experience of 10 years there. Better than here in north Norfolk.
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On the front line just south of Cromer, can report every sort of wintery precipitation, except snow. Expect to wake tomorrow to ice pellets still on the roadside, but for snow we just need someone to tweak those uppers a couple of degrees lower.
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Quote "the atmospheric feed backs will do their work for those looking for further cold pattern, based on anticipated guidance and expectations"
That is not a world away from my gut instinct that the UKMO had called this cold spell correctly and that it would last longer than the models had at first suggested. I also feel a second more severe cold period will follow .Despite coming from different ends of the spectrum, the old and the new, we are both on the same page and long may there be room for both of us
Right or wrong!
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40 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
So are you saying this is a positive thing,is good for cold?
Yes I do. But my opinion is only based on watching the meto over the years slog it out with the other models in these knife edge situations in winter. The longer we keep the cold in the better the prospects for snow.
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I was fascinated by that UKMO day 6 chart last night. It could have led almost anywhere. Worst, it could have been the sink hole down which our cold weather dreams were to disappear.
Now I can see rabbits coming out of a hat. You can analyse this to bits, but whatever the outcome, the Met and their models have been remarkably consistent while the other models have been all over the place.
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I am a newcomer to this forum. With all this talk of snow, would someone be able to tell me when I should be able to make my first " I didn't expect that " post please?
Oh, and in case it is helpful, I have included my location
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It was only 2 days ago that this thread became downbeat and some posters wondered winter might be over. Winter is never over on the 10th of January. I think one explanation for such pessimism is that recent Winters have been all or nothing. At some periods in this past they seemed more blended. Almost no snow before January, but then a good cold spell with some snow and often again in February. They may have been El Niño years, no one ever told us.
With the latest UKMO charts and GFS sniffing some snow in the wind, the dream lives on.
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24 minutes ago, Singularity said:
Sorry to quote myself but I was overly brief there as I was in a hurry to attend to something else.
Basically, it seems to me that ECM has a tendency to have areas of low heights interact in very energetic ways in the longer-term (beyond +144, say), and often it does tend to produce overly dramatic results and may be a significant contributor to the wild swings we sometimes see from one run to the next with the ECM det.; when one of these mergers of low heights is either picked up or dropped.
It's just a theory and an unverified one at that, but thought it worth posting in search of people's opinions. Thanks in advance for your responses.
Overall, I'm in a highly unconvinced state of mind this evening, as I can't see a decent consensus to work with. The ECM and UKMO outcomes seem equally reasonable, and GFS is not far behind once you factor in the progressive bias and adjust the displacement of the cold air back by a couple of days.
I have noticed this also now you mention it. I have been following the models for quite a while and feel that GFS will tend to wait just a bit longer before "going off on one". GEM is only a backstop if the other models aren't showing what I want to see, so cannot really comment on that. I can offer no explanation.
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I have not lived here long, and remembering references in the past to fabled De Bilt, I looked it up on the map. It is not in the far reaches of the east as I had imagined but is actually as close to here as the crow flies as is Birmingham. Approximately 100 miles.
i know this will be a bit Imby to someone in Cornwall, but the Ens mean still shows -4c right up to day 9. I will not get hung up about snow, but can look forward to a decent coldish spell with some sharp frosts. Also a lot can happen in that time. Just a small upgrade and we have a decent cold spell.
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I enjoy the chase with individual model runs, but being perhaps too level headed, go to the mean for a sense of reality. I have found the Ecm model does it best for me so while other people have already accessed the postage stamps, l have just got to uploading the 850Pa temerature chart for this and the previous run for day 6.
They look much the same to me. So mild outlier? and not all gloom and doom.
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The models last night were all over the place, and the anxiety in here is understandable given the lean years and last December to cap it off.
I feel that what is on offer tonight is some decent winter weather if you like cold. Ecm looks to be toying with an easterly. In the time I have been viewing the computer models I have come to see that model as first amongst equals. Before that I relied on television and radio and charts in the post. And also weather instinct, often wrong. This tells me to expect a proper easterly blast coming soon.
Watch "War and Peace" on the Beeb for a preview
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My take on today's models.
Rather than Shannon entropy it looks like Shannon dysentery with every new model take lmmediately going down the pan. ECM this evening was like find the pea in the three shells trick; you never knew where it would pop up next. And as for GFS it's like a Thomas Hardy novel, too long winded, starts brightly before everything that can conceivably go wrong does go wrong.
I'm off to fi land where Rupert bear meets Jack Frost in -20 uppers with driving snow. Cheers
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Lots of snow everywhere in my opinion. This is based on my reading of old weather journals, rather than what the charts show.
it seems that very cold snowy weather often follows on from a very wet spell. A couple of examples were the extremely cold 1739/40 which followed a wet Autumn. In January 1776 we are told that the first week was "uncommonly wet, and drowned with vast rains from every quarter.....from whence may be inferred that intense frost seldom takes place until the earth is glutted and filled with water". Then came the snow and by the 14th the narrow roads were filled with snow to the hedge tops.
Could this arise when a persistent upper trough to our west sets up shop further east? Just a thought
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The post I made earlier tonight on polar lows seems to have vanished. Maybe that it disappeared in the blizzard of other posts! Anyway thought it was worth another go as there are parallels with where we are now and many on here will not have experienced a polar low. It really is something special. Has everything of the Artic but the polar bears.
On 7/8th December 1967 there were two polar lows, the second of which gave a level depth of just under a foot of level snow in Brighton right down to the beach. There was thunder snow in the English Channel. The chart is for the 8th at noon with the low just discernible in the Channel.
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1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:
Could be good for Norfolk & Suffolk. Better still, if 850s fall to -8C or lower???
-8c didn't quiet deliver for North Norfolk in a similar situation last January. Wet snow which only laid for a night. Not lived here long but effect of coastal location in reducing snow chances was very evident. -10c would do it for me.
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As a boy in the New Forest in the 50/60's I longed for snow. There were barren years, but it often seemed to arrive around half term in February. Current charts suggest some cold interest, but if we want an early snow fest it will have to be a virtual one.
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At about this time last year we had a northerly cold spell similar to that being projected, that failed to meet expectations, at least for me in Norfolk. Charts below. While this potential cold spell could be upgraded, I feel a second bite of the cherry this time will be needed to give us something exceptional. Here's hoping.
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I am looking for upsides in what is a pretty poor outlook for cold lovers. Talk of Winter being over is defeatist; it is just that it has not begun yet. The charts do not show anything of interest until the second half of this month but what happens after that is anyone's guess.
Oh and the downside. We might get an early Spring
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I would agree with Weather History that this year has not been inspiring. In dietary terms a bit like chicken madras for breakfast and cornflakes for supper.
1947 was the sort of year I could have lived with. Haven't looked up the CET but my dear old "Century of London Weather" by W.A.L Marshall, shows that the average monthly value at Kew rose from -1C in February to 20C in August.
i am not proposing to move to Camelot, where proper seasons come round at the allotted time, but I would at least like to have a sense of which month of the year it is. The rutting stags in Richmond Park, shown in one of today's newspapers appear as confused as I am!
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I've hit the bottle already and I know he's right
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3 hours ago, Yarmy said:
Deadlines have passed for 2010 and 1963, so now we are on to 1947. When that passes it's all aboard March 2013.
I never had much hope of December producing much given the monster El Nino and the lack of anything significant on the Glosea et al. Certainly the pattern's changing though, and it does appear that there could be some HLB in the offing in January. Whether it will produce anything other than the square root of eff all for us is a different matter.
There is also 1987 to call upon. It did not look very inspiring on this day in 1986, but as we know, an epic cold spell followed. I would admit that when I moved to North Norfolk this year I was hankering after something similar. I have looked at the charts and still find the report of snow falling at Coltishall at -9c with a moderate easterly breeze mind blowing. I also believe that I saw snow crystals against the low sun on the 12th January. I have never seen mention of this elsewhere, so could have been mistaken. Anyway chart for December 30th.
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The easterly is a rare beast that is very difficult to land. Once established e.g 1986, it can be very persistent. But equally it can be snatched away at the last minute. There have been also a few easterlies that having established themselves were then almost immediately overrun from the west. The one that I am hoping to post my first charts on was late January 1972. It went from hero to zero in a couple of days.
c
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Right or wrong!
Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
The mothership has landed