[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

2 minutes ago, claret047 said:

Did you attend Ockendon School? I was involved with the major refurbishment works there a few years back when Mrs king was the Headmistress and her husband the Deputy Head.

No, I moved to South Ockendon when I was 40.  My primary education from the age of 4 and 1/2 to 6 and 1/2 was in Ashington in Northumberland and the rest of was in Plaistow in East London and Much Hadam boarding school.

The weather is dreadfully dull today in South Ockendon, no sign of the sun for the past two days but constant grey skies with sporadic drizzle. Gavin Partridge's last video has inspired me to write a poem:

The distressed pest from the west, which won't let us rest,
especially those who wear a string vest at the Burns night fest.
It will put the garden birds to the test when they're building their nests
due to the arrival of our very mild and wild weather guests.
It seems that we are underneath a permanent grey cloud
with the constant pouring rain which soaks the whole of Stroud.
The jet stream happily whips up the Atlantic ocean
which brings the British Isles a mild and wild weather explosion.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

1 hour ago, TomSE12 said:

                                         NETWEATHER S.E.REGION SETTLING SNOW CUP

Catchy little Title isn't it? Not. I've decided to split the Entrants into 2 Groups, as I did in my Snow Depth Cup.

BLUE - Thames North. and RED - Thames South. I've also entered your Elevation, when it appears in your Avatar. Elevation could be critical, if Temperatures are marginal. You can find your Elevation on this Elevation finder Website. See link below:

https://routecalculator.co.uk/elevation

I've just tested the link, with my Elevation and it works. If I knew each Entrants' elevation, it would help me formulate some Betting Odds. Could I ask those Entrants whose Elevation doesn't appear in their Profile, to register it on the Thread, please.

ENTRY NUMBER   MEMBER                                Dates (2020)

 

1.                              Timbo                                       10th Feb

8.                              TomSE12 (41 Mts)                   14th Feb

10.                            Steve Murr  (150 Mts)              14th Feb

11.                            Septic Peg (Guest) (41 Mts)     15th Feb

2.                              Lottiekent (164 Mts)                  16th Feb

9.                             Team squirrel                             18th Feb

3.                              Stainesbloke                             19th Feb

13.                            snowray (40 Mts)                      22nd Feb

17.                           Bluebell                                      22nd Feb

18.                           snow Queen one                        24th Feb

14.                           SenlacJack (81 Mts)                  26th Feb

5.                             Donna thw                                  27th Feb

4.                             pinball wizard                             29th Feb

16.                            lassie23                                     29th Feb

7.                              Snowrye (70 Mts)                     1st March

6.                              Froze were the days                9th March

12.                            claret 047 (30 Mts)                   23rd March

15.                            General Cluster                        29th November

We've got a nice spread of Entries - 7 Thames North and 11 Thames South.

Right off to view the latest Form Book (12z Model Runs). I will try and formulate Betting Odds for 3 Events.

Outright Winner, Top Thames North and Top Thames South.

I'll pop up those Betting Odds, later on Tonight.

Regards,

Tom.   

P.S. Both myself and my Wife Colette (Septic Peg), have drawn Entry numbers that correspond to our Birthday Dates. It's an omen, I tell ya!! 

Hello My altitude for Daiglen Drive South Ockendon is 22 metres. (72 ft)  I think the snow will arrive either on 30 January or the 31st January.

[Solar and Aurora Activity Chat]

A report from Dr. Tony Phillips, webmaster of Spaceweather.com: "I am in Abisko, Sweden, with a team of students preparing to launch a pair of cosmic ray balloons into the polar stratosphere. On Tuesday night, Jan. 21st, we were eating dinner at the STF Abisko Turiststation when some of the other guests jumped up and hurried to the window, pointing outside. A bright green aurora was visible over the lights of the warm dining room."

[Solar and Aurora Activity Chat]

Solar Terrestrial Data 21st January 2020 08:29

Solar Flux Index: 72

Sunspot Number: 0

[Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019/20]

Small changes in sea ice cover:

[Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2019/20]

I hope that I am posting in the right area:

 

 

 

[Solar and Aurora Activity Chat]

Spaceweather has finally updated:

Sunspot number: 0

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 8 days
2020 total: 11 days (58%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 71 sfu

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

3 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Morning all,

Up early again, to have Breakfast with my Wife.

Was a bit annoyed with Colette last Night, when she informed me that she'd been talked into working a 3rd 12 Hour shift, in a row. Especially after all the Care Home Staff were given a very generous Christmas Box of, wait for it...………….a £5 Amazon Gift Voucher (didn't realise they came in such low values) What an insult!

The Care Home Manageress was so embarrassed and disgusted with this that she gave all the 30+ Staff , £5 in their Christmas pay packet, out of her own money. Shame on you Bupa!! 

I hardly had the heart to remind Colette that during the last few Years of my time for working for a Credit Bookmaker in Croydon, between 2010 and 2014, all the Staff (inc. my Daughter, who worked for us as well), if Results and our resultant Profits had been good, we  received, 10% of our Gross Annual Salary (excluding O/Time). We had to pay Tax and N.I. on this but it still was a very tidy sum and very welcome, at Christmas time.

Colette seemed delighted that Todays' O/Time Rate, would mean an Hourly sum, of just over £11. Again reminded her, that 10 Years ago, I was earning £16 an hour on Sundays for taking a few bets on the Phone.

It's a very sad indictment of how little importance we attach to those who work in the Care Sector, in this Country. It truly is a National disgrace!! 

My Wifes' role as a Senior, entails giving the Residents their medication (gets that wrong and she could kill them). Liaising with G.Ps and Hospitals, to decide whether or not a Resident needs specialist medical attention. Writing up Care Plans and the reordering of Drugs and being responsible for a potentially very dangerous, Drugs Cabinet. Also showing prospective new Residents and their Relatives, around the Care Home. All that responsibility for a flat Rate of a little over £9.50 an Hour. Pfft!! 

Waved goodbye to Colette at the Front Door at 6.20 and that white substance has descended during the Night again (more noticeable than yesterday Morning). More Weather thoughts, in a short while.

Having worked in S.E.London and Croydon for the majority of my Adult life, the sight of a smattering of a white substance on the ground at the Weekend, wasn't an uncommon sight.  Nothing to do with Yours Truly, I might add.

Would like to thank Katrine, for her kind words above. Can't think, I've eaten Italian for Breakfast though?

On the subject of Shop closures, one of that parade of Shops that still remains is Minns the Hardware Store. As I stated yesterday, both myself and my Wife spent our childhood and our teenage Years, in the Burnt Ash Lane area. When it snowed, I eagerly offered to go to that Store to buy a gallon of Esso Blue Paraffin, for Half a Crown or,              2 shillings and sixpence (12 and a half pence, in new money!!).

I can vividly remember, experiencing one of the only "True White Christmases", I can remember, that of 1970.

 

Didn't realise at the time but I was experiencing a "Thames Streamer", in all its glory. Heavy Snow Showers were accompanied by a huge crack of thunder, during the early hours, of Christmas Morning. I can remember listening to the Shipping Forecast at 12.30 AM - THAMES - Heavy Snow Showers, prolonged at times. Aah, music to my ears.         I was 14 Years old and it was at this time, that I would retune Mums Radio to Radio 4, to listen to the Shipping Forecast.

One Day, Mum came out with the classic line: "Whya youa wanna listena toa thata s...a, whena wea dona evena hava a shipa herea ina Bromleya!! (When speaking English, Mum would always add a non existant "a", on the end of every word). But always delivered in her lilting and beautiful, Italian accent. She had myself and my two Sisters in fits of laughter at her poor pronunciation and incorrect intonation, of syllables. We called her, the Italian Hilda Baker!! 

My poor Italian Mother, must have found it hard to acclimatise to the colder and gloomier Weather on "offer" in England, compared to her Southern Italian Homeland. She also had to endure some horrendous taunts from the Women in the area (Downham Estate). For the first few Years of their Marriage, they lived with my Grandmother, in Downham. Mum was spat at and told to, "go home you Wop" and stop snatching our Men. In truth, Dad had stolen his Wife, from her Southern Italian homeland.

Mum and Dad at their Wedding in April 1947.

Dad stayed on at the end of the 2nd World War, to marry his Italian Fiancee (Mum was 23 and Dad 25). They spent a Day of their Honeymoon on the Private Beach (along with a couple of other British Soldiers and their Italian brides), of English Singer, Gracie Fields (who was also married to an Italian), at her Villa, on the beautiful Isle of Capri.

Mum in her prime at 21, at the end of the 2nd World War. Think those Downham women were suffering from "Green-eyed Monster" Syndrome!!

Anyway, enough of my Family History ramblings and back to the Weather!!

So "Downside" Darren Betts' intense High Pressure has arrived and looks like sticking around for a few Days, to give us a few Frosty Nights and a more Seasonal feel.

Some Faux cold (under an inversion High) and "Virtual" Snow (well Frosty white anyway), on the Menu.

I'm not sure, I share our own Steve Murrs' optimism, expressed on the Model Thread, 4 Hours ago.

I freely admit, Steve is much More technically gifted than myself but IMO and to my untrained eye, the Azores High doesn't want to retreat and even looks to move East and take up a "Bartlett" type, position. Heaven forbid!!

With a reinvigorated Jet Stream, raging away to our North.

Can't believe that MeteoGroup, via Stav Danaos, think that 7c/8c is around average for our Region , at this time of the Year. Crikey, has the CET mean, changed that Much since the 1960s/1970s? 

Need to go and escape this depressing Winter and spend some time, on my Competition Thread.

Hope you all have an enjoyable Sunday.

At least it will be dry and a little on the cold side (evidently).

Regards,

Tom.   

 

Good Tom and everyone,

It was a frostier morning with the back lawn frost saying until well after 11 am along with frost on the roofs. Yes, I agree that the Care staff who are paid miserly for their dedicated and caring work.  The frosts of the 60's would give me rosy cheeks but not any-more. It is good to hear that wear finally going out of a Westerly QBO and into an Easterly QBO. I wish the dreaded Azores high would disappear and that the Atlantic ocean would calm down and the jet stream travel further South as South as it can get as well as SSW that will obliterate the polar vortex winds. I wonder mind going back to the seasonable weather that we had in the 60's even if it meant to have cooler summer.  Thank you Tom for your kind compliments and I hope that you will have a lovely Sunday.  

[Solar and Aurora Activity Chat]

Solar Terrestrial Data 19th January 2020 10:31

Solar Flux Index: 72

Sunspot Number: 0

[Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019/20]

There have been some decrease of snow for Russia and slight increases in sea ice cover:

[Snow and Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere winter 2019/2020 (Twitter photos and videos)]

It is a pity snow cannot be shared more equally, I would not mind half of what they get or even more as I live in an noisy area with heavy traffic, 24 hours a week as it dampness background noise.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

34 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Quote - Mark Wheeler: 

"I know, Times are crazy now a days , I mean for gods sake a cold warning . It’s a frost in winter . Oh well , bring on the next 2010." 

Couldn't agree more with Marks', sentiments above!! 

Morning all,

Up early again, to have Breakfast with my Wife, before she set off for a 12 Hour shift, in Chislehurst. I waved her off at the front door and a strange layer of "shimmering white", has descended overnight.

"Well, I'll go t' foot of our Stairs". Heaven forbid, it's a Frost.

Coming in Mid-January and Mid-Winter, whatever next Snow??

Was reminiscing with my Wife over Breakfast, about the Good old, Cold old Days, of the 1960's.

Cold Weather Alert, you're having a "giraffe".

Has "Downside" Darren (at least it will be mild) Bett, taken over the Met Office??

Both myself and my Wife (Colette is 10 Years younger than me), spent our childhood and teenage Years, in the same area, the northern part of the Borough of Bromley. We both went to the same Primary School, that of Burnt Ash, Colette was in my younger Sisters' class. 

Colette lived on the sprawling Downham Estate (the largest Social Housing Project in Europe, at the time). According to her Brother, I'm "posh" because I lived in the new Housing Estate, around the corner from Colette. But I come from a very definite, Working Class background.

I had a "Paper Round" back in the 1960s. I can remember a Winter back in the late '60s, possibly 1968 or '69. There was thick Snow and Ice on the ground. For those of you that know the area, the Paper Round stretched from a few Roads on the Downham Estate along Burnt Ash Lane and finished, a couple of Roads short of Grove Park, just short of a Mile, in distance. Went on my Paper Round with Temps around -5c (23f). Got home, teeth "chattering", Mum said I turned white. But a hot cup of tea, put me right, before I set off for School. Probably had a touch of hypothermia.

Even Helen Willetts suggested that the single digit Temps, that we'll experience for the next few Days, of around 7c/8c were, around normal!! How times have changed, back in the 1960s, that would have been firmly, in the mild Category. January average then, around 3c/4c (37f/39f). 

We also reminisced about our childhoods, in the area. My Paper Round was with local Newsagents Martins and Colette had a Saturday Job with them but like a lot of that Parade of Shops, closed down a few Months ago. Another recent "casualty", was our Waitrose Supermarket. Very sad, for myself and Colette, as it was in Waitrose that I first "clapped" eyes on the willowy Brunette, looking very chic and tanned with sun glasses perched on top of her head, standing next to the Baguettes. Her own Baguettes, looking long, slender and tanned!! 

It's amazing what you could pick up in Waitrose, in those Days, even a prospective Wife.

My Italian Mother, shopped in Waitrose, as much as three times a day. Mainly because she had to buy huge bottles of Mineral Water, for my pain of a fussy Father. But Mum, had it "sussed", she kept a Waitrose Trolley hidden behind a Forsythia Bush, in our Front Garden. Mum was known as the "Cat Lady" in Waitrose, due to the fact she often bought her beloved Cats, cuts of Chicken and Turkey approaching their "sell-by-date". She also bought them John West Salmon. They ate better than the Family!!(Not strictly true and just a bit of "Artistic License"). Mum was a fantastic cook, English and Italian, alike.

Anyway, enough of my reminiscing and back to the Weather.

A little earlier, whilst typing, heard Mr.Bett state again, "the downside of this dry, sunny Weather, is that it will be cold". Pfft! 

The 00z Overnight Model Runs, not very inspiring again. GFS, to my "untrained eye", has a "limpet-like" Azores High dare I say it, venturing into "Bartlett" Territory with the Jet Stream, raging to our North.

ECM, not great again either, until another t240 (Day 10) tease:

But, I wouldn't hold your breath!!

Anyway, enough of my ramblings. I'm off to seek solace, on my Horse Racing Competition Thread.

Hope you all have an "upside", Saturday.

At least it will be colder and dry!!  

Regards,

Tom.  

 

Good Morning Tom, it is lovely to see you.  It is a cool Saturday morning and it was 3 Celsius at 7:30 am.  There was a light frost on the lawns of the back and front garden,  as well as the roofs, and tops of vehicles.  Then the sun came and the frost on the quickly disappeared when the sun's rays reached the lawn.  It will be colder tonight.  I hope that this won't be the last of the cold weather and that we see more later on. I love the cold fresh feeling of frost as I feel more energised.  Sadly it is not as beautiful as the frosts that we had in the late 60's in Ashington in NE Northumberland. When it was cold and snowy in the 60's my cheeks would go very rosy but even in the past winters that never happened to me.  I think it was part due to the fact that Ashington was three miles away from the sea. Yes, the winters in the 60's were very memorable and I have a lot of happy memories. Except I do not remember the winter of 1962 and 1963 as I was in production (as my mother was pregnant with me in Edinburgh, Scotland) she was worried that snow would not have gone by the time I was born at the end of July in 1963. It is very sad when shops close down, especially Waitrose as it is a very good quality of supermarket. Living in Ashington, it was the co-operative stores for us, along with the co-op butchers who even delivered groceries to my grandparents as well as the large co-op arcade department store with the many shops inside. Sadly there is only one co-op grocery store left as the rest of them closed even the co-op arcade department store which had it's own ball room and bank. Winters were definitely colder in the 60's and even in the 70's in London during the snow-less winters but if there was no snow, there would be frost or hail. I wish the jet stream would park itself further South down to North Africa and the Azores high would disappear.

I am having Cheese Rigatoni with asparagus for breakfast and it is quite delicious. 

I hope Collete will have a good day at work. Take care Tom and Collete and I hope you will both have an upside Saturday.

 

[Solar and Aurora Activity Chat]

SOLARHAM.com | Solar Cycle 25 | Space Weather Website

WWW.SOLARHAM.NET

Solar Terrestrial Data 18th January 2020 08:24

Solar Flux Index: 72

Sunspot Number: 0

 

[Earthquake Activity Thread]

Light earthquake, 4.6 mag strikes near Ust’-Kamchatsk Staryy in Russia

WWW.EARTHQUAKENEWSTODAY.COM

---

A light earthquake with magnitude 4.6 (ml/mb) was detected on Wednesday, 120 km SSW of Ust'-Kamchatsk Staryy, Russia (75 miles) The temblor was...

 

[Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019/20]

Decrease in snow cover and little change in the sea ice cover.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

It is the same over here in South Ockendon, the wind is noisy and I have heard a few bangs as though heavy items have fallen down. The winds are blowing a  hooley outside, the rain is lashing down.

[Solar and Aurora Activity Chat]

Silso Sunspot Index has 5 sun spotless days for January.  It usually reports less sunspots than Spaceweather, I wonder if they have changed the method on how they count sun spots.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

I went out and took a video of the storm clouds:

 

 

[General Volcanic Activity Thread!]

Sakurajima Volcano Volcanic Ash Advisory: VA IS NOT IDENTIFIABLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

WWW.VOLCANODISCOVERY.COM

---

Sakurajima volcano (Japan): news & eruption updates

FVFE01 at 11:50 UTC, 13/01/20 from RJTD
VA ADVISORY
DTG: 20200113/1150Z
VAAC: TOKYO
VOLCANO: SAKURAJIMA [AIRA CALDERA] 282080
PSN: N3136 E13039
AREA: JAPAN
SUMMIT ELEV: 1117M
ADVISORY NR: 2020/36
INFO SOURCE: HIMAWARI-8
AVIATION COLOUR CODE: NIL
ERUPTION DETAILS: VA IS NOT IDENTIFIABLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
OBS VA DTG: 13/1120Z
OBS VA CLD: VA NOT IDENTIFIABLE FM SATELLITE DATA WIND FL180 260/58KT

FCST VA CLD +6 HR: NOT AVBL
FCST VA CLD +12 HR: NOT AVBL
FCST VA CLD +18 HR: NOT AVBL
RMK: VA IS NOT IDENTIFIABLE DUE TO MET CLOUD OR HAS DISSIPATED. WE
WILL ISSUE FURTHER ADVISORY IF VA DETECTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
NXT ADVISORY: NO FURTHER ADVISORIES=

[Earthquake Activity Thread]

 

[Solar and Aurora Activity Chat]

www.sidc.be/silso.com
It has today's sunspot count as 0

But Solarham.com

Has the sunspot count as 14 and the Solar Flux at 74

Spaceweather.com is still showing yesterday's sunspot count.

 

 

 

[Solar and Aurora Activity Chat]

Just to make things more confusing Silso.com have recorded 4 sun spotless days so far:

07 January : 0

08 January : 0

09 January : 15

10 January : 0

11 January : 0

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

According to my outside thermometer that inside the outdoor garden porch, it has the temperature 9.5°C which is different temperature from my automated weather station which says it is 10.7°C. I wonder which is the right temperature.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

The time is 14:14 and the the temperature is 10.6°C, the humidity is 73% and the barometric pressure has fallen to 10203. The sky is filled with nimbostratus clouds.

[Snow and Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere winter 2019/2020 (Twitter photos and videos)]