Faronstream
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Posts posted by Faronstream
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12,2c as maximum today here and won't rise more since the rain started, and hear this out it's the lowest max-temperarture for this date since 1987, and before that it hasn't even happened all the way back to when the records started in 1858, the lowest are all in the 14's range.
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Basically just average 10 days forward, despite a higher pressure than normal we still can't manage anything noteworthy, back to average is not really an improvement and we need more than that this late in the season.
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40 minutes ago, IcySpicy said:
While early-mid August is often the warmest part of the year and most of the northern hemisphere gets seasonal lag well into autumn, something about August feels different to me than late June and July. The nights get longer, mornings get more dewy and the sun doesn't start warming everything up so fast. If we get a few nice summery days and then a breakdown, I always wonder "was this the last warmth of the year" because if we get the wrong synoptics there is the risk that the weather can't recover anymore to summery (lets say above 22C ) conditions and autumn takes over. In June and July there is still plenty of summer left and the sun is stronger so the recovery out of poor weather is usually easier (I know... July 2023 really failed us on this, but I hope that was a freak anomaly).
It's also rare that we get a summer like last year, where all months including August are good. Usually if June and July are great then August is almost always a downgrade. And if June and July are cr*p, then August might offer some improvement, but as it seems to be going this year, its often too short lived and too late in the season to make up for the previous poor weather. I don't dislike August per se, but it's rare to get an August that is so good that it manages to carry the summer, so it has always been a "meh" month to me.
Yes august is a semi-autumnal month end of discussion really, even in mid may when temperatures reach 22c on some days it actually feels more summery than 25c in august, and after the 2nd wettest july on record here since the year 1900 the lakes have cooled well enough to not feel a need for a dip.
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Lol now even the long range models have lost the high pressure rising from the south for the 3rd and last week of august, maybe we are getting a clear improvement in september when no one really wants it, a little too late.
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Without the need to count the last day of july it's clear that this july will have the lowest average high temperature for my location since 1998 beating both 2007 and 2012
1965: 18,7c (must been horrific)
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1998: 20,3c
2023: 20,4c
2007:20,7c
2009:20,9c
2012:21,6c
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9 minutes ago, razorgrain said:
Christ. These charts always make me glad I don't live in Scandinavia.
Scandinavia has warmer and sunnier summers than UK in general, also easier getting semi-permanent high pressure systems from russia both in winter and summer.
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18,3c just after mid-day at the heart of summer with strong westerly breezes, i don't think even those who thought it was "too warm" back in june really wished for these kind of temperatures, all you can do is to lit a fire in order to stay warm during the evening
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Still looking hellish'ish for the last week of july, It's gonna be very hard to shake off those low anomalies which covers basically the whole europe+ north africa for the last week of july, i don't think we even were in this position in july 2012.
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58 minutes ago, MattH said:
The overall outlook hasn't changed but it is, clearly, timing that has and continues to be the troublesome aspect of the forecast for any potential, or expected/predicted changes, deeper into July.
Visually what plot stands out and is very telling of the situation right now is the EC46 AAM forecast graphic. The key area of interest here is how the model (and others) have struggled to grasp the more obvious fall in AAM in the short-term, with a clear split in recent model runs over the early July evolution. This highlights the timing issue as clearly AAM, through the usual processes, has fallen or been able to fall away more significantly and, importantly, for longer than was expected. The result, the persistent cyclonic regime...
However, equally as important is the long-standing prediction for a recovery in AAM as July progresses and this aspect of the forecast remains unchanged and consistent, so patience is still urged for those wanting summer to return and I fully believe it will. Another way to look at this signal is through the usual VP200 anomalies as well.
Obviously there are numerous other data sources that need to be looked at to gauge this prediction, including current and observed OLR plots, for example, but that's just part of the forecasting process to verify whether NWP is on to something with this signal. From experience with this data mind, I would put money on this rise AAM occurring, eventually.
For now though there is little evidence for this occuring in the immediate time-frame and just using the tendency plot to highlight this, it remains a very stagnant AAM pattern across the N Hem at the moment, but with plenty of 'goings on' in the S Hem linked to thier winter or course.
As recent posts have suggested though and as Tamara has well documented too, a change is still in the cards, not a case of 'if' but a case of 'when' still if you ask me. Yes, the mid-July change may well not happen now, but with the school holidays looming around the 24th onwards, a usual comical period of the summer when the proverbial 'wheels come off', this year could well be the opposite and more summer-like patterns return just at the right time. Prior, however and it's a text-book summer trough pattern that will dominate at least until mid-July, but I still fully believe that this will not end up evolving like a 2007/2012 scenario.
Plenty of summer left for those longing for higher MSLP to return, but extra patience is required and this just highlights how forecasts, both short and long-term can and have to evolve and be modified, at times, due to mother nature.
Cheers, Matt.
A strong el nino overrides any other signal, just like last years la nina's who has given us unusually stable summers. There is still those low pressures on the atlantic in end of july/beginning of august according to the mean.
1st pic: 31th of july-7th august
2nd pic: 7th of august-14th august
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No change in sight for the 2nd half of the month, if anything it looks even worse compared to a few days ago with low pressure dominated westerlies strenghtened by the still warm waters of the north atlantic and high pressure stuck over greenland,all this evaporation probably leads to more rainfall long-term.
First pic: 24-31th of july
Second pic: 31th of july to 7th august
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49 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:
Rest assured just as the long range as become useless , anyone cherry picking charts for a quick return to settled high summer weather then will only be full of disappointment
The long range forecasts didn't expect el nino to set in before summer's over, therefore we see more unsettled weather into july aka another 2012/2007 but hopefully not as extreme.
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The la nina influences can't go on forever, the only reason we have had unusually great summers since 2020 is mainly because of a stubborn la nina, on average el nino summers starts out good and becomes more unsettled with time.
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21,2c as maximum today with comfortable humidity levels of 35%, also the nature is really looking the best this time of the year.
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2nd day in a row reaching 20c with no clouds to be seen, damn huge diurnal temperature range too
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It's beginning to look a lot like christma.. i mean end of march
On top of that this is the latest recorded ice day for my location/city since 1996 with a max of -0,1. Just happy the global radiation levels are high enough this time of the year to melt snow on stone and pavement.
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The average temperature here for the last 7 days is -4,0, which is the same average as we have during the coldest part of the year aka 2nd week of january, impressive cold spell for being almost mid march.
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Very good upgrades from the GFS in last days, from showing 5 consecutive ice days a couple of days ago to almost 8, would beat both 2018 and 2013 if this occured.
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Despite uppers of -17 my location manage nothing more than daytime maxes of -5 for 6th of march, 1888 had -8 to 10 with almost same uppers (-20).
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Lowkey disappointed in latest GFS 0z run for the 5th-7th of march, would hope of daytime maxes of -8 to -10 instead of -3 just like in march 1888, it's still physically possible if we just get 850hpa temps below -20 instead of -15, here's how cold it were back then.
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Almost breezeless, not too cold and a little snow. Can't get better weather for a winter barbeque
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4 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:
Just a graph to show the stark reality of how hard its become to get any sort of cold to these shores, and back in the medieval warm period they thought it was warm.
Please i thought we were done with the debunked hockey stick, its very obvious that both the medieval period and 8000 years ago were hotter than today's climate.
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It's perfect outside at the moment with a decent snow depth, too bad all of this will be gone in next week's mild spell.
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Merry christmas everyone!!
Didn't wake up to snow this year but still very frosty and -10,2 as i write.
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Summer 2023 chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Yes it's a combination of the ongoing rain since late morning and no sun at all with the -6 colder than average airmass, but it's still odd why this hasn't happened on this exact day for such a long period of time (165 years)