[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

6 minutes ago, igloo said:

To be honest i wouldnt complain if we have a march like 2011 again with temps at 19c was that also a SSW ? This could well go the say way as march 2011

Wow 19C in March! Where in the UK was that? I honestly can't remember a warm March that year only the widespread snow in Dec 2010 which was still around into January 2011

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

30hpa temperature in the North Pole has warmed even more within the last 24 hours. They might have increase the scale at this rate!

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

Latest 30hpa temperature over the North Pole 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

GFS 12z (FI) goes from a cold blast to a Spanish plume within just 72 hours! 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

24 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

GFS 6z brings a fabulous start to half term week with high pressure firmly taking control. Once Thursday is over it seems like we can look forward to some decent weather but until then it's staying quite unsettled unfortunately 

It breaks up the cold upper air too (for a time at least) so given light winds it should start to feel milder than recently especially in any sunshine 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

Looking very good for the start of half term next weekend on the GFS 6z, dry with some sunshine and not too cold so if correct there'd be no worries about snow/ice for those going on holidays especially in southern UK. The second half of the week could turn more unsettled though with Atlantic lows moving through bringing wind & rain 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

50 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

GEM looks really good for the start of half term as next weekend it brings us high pressure, light winds and 11C could this last throughout the school holidays up to the 25th who knows but we would be off to a very springlike start 

No it doesn't, for any "springlike" feel at this time of year you need sunshine & very light winds. This happened last week when despite it being 6C on the thermometer it felt very mild, that GEM run would bring a lot of cloud and therefore would feel quite chilly. 

I get that not everyone likes snow and of course with half term being just a week away many people will be hoping to get out and about and go on short breaks with their kids. Don't forget easterly winds can often bring drier air especially here in the west with cold but sunny days if the Atlantic fronts are kept away they're often the main ones to watch as they can bring persistent, heavy snow especially as sea temperatures are around their seasonal lowest. 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

GFS 6z Turning much milder than average across Scandinavia by next weekend with slightly milder air across Ireland & northern UK but slightly colder air hanging on in the SE, elsewhere around average. 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

10 hours ago, Daniel Smith said:

Yup. 18z GFS less progressive on Tuesdays front too, killing it off faster than previous runs

Some decent snow for N England, Wales & SW England though before it fizzles out on those charts also another area of snow (some heavy) across Ireland & W Scotland 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

2 minutes ago, Dafydd Tomos said:

Shame, a max of 7C and min 4C is forecast during that time in Tenby = cold rain or sleet if we're lucky 

GFS 12z is suggesting it'll be colder than that around your area 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

9 minutes ago, Dafydd Tomos said:

Tbf you can never calculate a windchill temperature from a chart. The only accurate way is measure the actual 'in the shade temperature' against the wind speed where you're at and then work it out using the formula. After all some streets, bays, beaches etc... can often feel mild or even warm while others exposed to wind can feel cold or very cold even if it's just yards away! 

Just to add, they can also underestimate the temps as well from the temperature being lower or the wind being stronger than forecasted. Dafydd is spot on though with the only way to accurately measure windchill for where you are. Same goes for humidex (temp & humidity) and also for the heat index in the summer some PWS take in consideration the current temp, humidity, solar strength & wind to give the accurate feel like temperatures (often abbreviated to THSW) 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

Western coasts of the U.K. & Ireland look like getting the most precipitation next week but that will probably be a combination of rain, sleet, snow & hail. Tuesday night into Wednesday could be the best chance of seeing snow in the west, however it's possible to see a further mix of frequent heavy rain, sleet, snow or hail showers with a risk of thunder on Wednesday evening into Thursday across W Wales, N Devon & Cornwall as a "Pembrokeshire Dangler" develops so plenty of potential in what's been a snow starved west for the last several winters 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

23 minutes ago, Dafydd Tomos said:

Some decent cold, snowy weather around next week but it's a shame the GFS brings milder air back in next weekend, brief I know but it does shunt the coldest air eastwards away from the UK which puts us back in the polar maritime air which is often very disappointing for my area snow-wise. Anyway we still have much of next week to enjoy across the UK & Ireland, if you like the cold that is 

GFS 12z brings a brief spell of milder air next Thursday quickly followed by much colder air again. However it still looks like the milder air will then return by next weekend again with the coldest weather restricted to mainland Europe. 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It must be really confusing for newbies, when UKMO's faxes look like that one does, while at the same time the Beeb's website (and the latest BBC forecast) is predicting +7C on Sunday...I can't see the -11C uppers shown on most, if not all, of the latest model-output, yielding such high maxima...+3C perhaps? 

Still some disagreement between GFS, ECM & UKMO perhaps? Many people (including myself) have noticed this temperature difference from various parts of the U.K. & Ireland. UKMO continues to be "less cold" than the others 

[Model output discussion - mid January]

19 minutes ago, Dafydd Tomos said:

Exceptional charts again today, GFS 6z show 850mb temps of -8 / -9C for Wales next Tuesday afternoon but at the same time the BBC forecast for here in Tenby is showing 8C with unbroken sunshine. Now either the models are disagreeing with each other or that's one hell of a very steep lapse rate which may end up triggering off some heavy, thundery showers! 

Perhaps UKMO is showing less cold upper air at that time? Anyway Tuesday is a long way off in terms of weather forecasting and a lot can and probably will change by then. We might end up somewhere in between UKMO & that GFS 6z by the time Tuesday comes. 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

2 hours ago, Dafydd Tomos said:

I agree as it's similar for Tenby Pembrokeshire between 6-9C and apart from light showers Saturday it's dry with sunny spells. Now that could be the result of an easterly as it often brings drier, sunnier weather to the west but as temperatures are measured in the shade not in direct sunlight, I'd have thought it would still be colder than suggested tbh

There is a front expected to push in on Saturday some models suggest some decent hill snow but low ground and the coasts look like getting rain (or perhaps sleet if we're lucky) lol

[Model output discussion - mid January]

I'm confused now, UKMO and many other charts show widespread cold developing but yet Swansea BBC forecast is dry from tomorrow until well into next week with daytime highs between 7-9C throughout. Very strange 

[Model output discussion - mid January]

3 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Begs the question....

Who would actually want one mid feb? 

I would, bring it on 

[Model output discussion - mid January]

3 minutes ago, Dafydd Tomos said:

Ooh when's that for? I'm looking forward to some drier weather here in southwest Wales after all this rain we've had recently for these saturated fields to dry out a bit and river levels to fall.  

We're under high pressure now you wouldn't think it I know with this constant drizzle & mist this weekend but its currently about 1035mb in Swansea so pretty strong  

[Model output discussion - mid January]

9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

May 2018 to be dominated by E'lys, 6 week period approx late Apr to early June

Well in May that would bring in some reasonable warmth especially in the west, it would much be cooler on the east coast though with a cold breeze off the North Sea 

[Model output discussion - mid January]

No sign of Spring according to the CFS model lol it suggests an average February this year. 

SW UK including S Wales and S Ireland could turn slightly colder than average by March perhaps finally with some snow given that the sea temps will be at their seasonal coldest?  then an average April followed by a cooler May & June. Well I certainly wouldn't put it past that happening anyway  

[Model output discussion - mid January]

11 hours ago, snowbunting said:

To be honest, we have had so much snow up here I would happily settle for some sunny cold weather.. aka easterly.

Same with me for South Wales we've had so much rain recently the fields are waterlogged making some main roads turn into muddy rivers and there's been some flooding of properties 

[Model output discussion - mid January]

Hahaha you couldn't make it up, ECM shows a tiny little finger of mild air stretching across SW England & SW Wales to spoil the party  elsewhere it stays colder 

 

[Model output discussion - mid January]

ECM shows a ridge of high pressure across the UK & Ireland on Tuesday, low pressure returning Wednesday bringing colder air in northern & central areas but staying milder in south. Friday northerly winds but sheltered parts of southern England and South Wales could stay dry and sunny. Next weekend that high looks to be remaining close to SW UK and becoming milder again. 

Thankfully GFS 6z show rainfall totals in the SW expected to be much less than recently during the next 5 days 

[Model output discussion - mid January]

24 minutes ago, Dafydd Tomos said:

Not exactly what you'd expect from a fairly strong area of high pressure but it's happened quite a few times since last October and when the pressure starts to fall, the weather improves again lol  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Like this you mean? Sunshine returning under lower pressure lol, yep that could happen again after a few days of gloomy damp weather