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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
ACCOUNT DELETED replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Wow 19C in March! Where in the UK was that? I honestly can't remember a warm March that year only the widespread snow in Dec 2010 which was still around into January 2011 -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
ACCOUNT DELETED replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
30hpa temperature in the North Pole has warmed even more within the last 24 hours. They might have increase the scale at this rate! -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
ACCOUNT DELETED replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
ACCOUNT DELETED replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
ACCOUNT DELETED replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It breaks up the cold upper air too (for a time at least) so given light winds it should start to feel milder than recently especially in any sunshine -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
ACCOUNT DELETED replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looking very good for the start of half term next weekend on the GFS 6z, dry with some sunshine and not too cold so if correct there'd be no worries about snow/ice for those going on holidays especially in southern UK. The second half of the week could turn more unsettled though with Atlantic lows moving through bringing wind & rain -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
ACCOUNT DELETED replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
No it doesn't, for any "springlike" feel at this time of year you need sunshine & very light winds. This happened last week when despite it being 6C on the thermometer it felt very mild, that GEM run would bring a lot of cloud and therefore would feel quite chilly. I get that not everyone likes snow and of course with half term being just a week away many people will be hoping to get out and about and go on short breaks with their kids. Don't forget easterly winds can often bring drier air especially here in the west with cold but sunny days if the Atlantic fronts are kept away they're often the main ones to watch as they can bring persistent, heavy snow especially as sea temperatures are around their seasonal lowest. -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
ACCOUNT DELETED replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS 6z Turning much milder than average across Scandinavia by next weekend with slightly milder air across Ireland & northern UK but slightly colder air hanging on in the SE, elsewhere around average. -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
ACCOUNT DELETED replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Some decent snow for N England, Wales & SW England though before it fizzles out on those charts also another area of snow (some heavy) across Ireland & W Scotland -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
ACCOUNT DELETED replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
ACCOUNT DELETED replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just to add, they can also underestimate the temps as well from the temperature being lower or the wind being stronger than forecasted. Dafydd is spot on though with the only way to accurately measure windchill for where you are. Same goes for humidex (temp & humidity) and also for the heat index in the summer some PWS take in consideration the current temp, humidity, solar strength & wind to give the accurate feel like temperatures (often abbreviated to THSW) -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
ACCOUNT DELETED replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Western coasts of the U.K. & Ireland look like getting the most precipitation next week but that will probably be a combination of rain, sleet, snow & hail. Tuesday night into Wednesday could be the best chance of seeing snow in the west, however it's possible to see a further mix of frequent heavy rain, sleet, snow or hail showers with a risk of thunder on Wednesday evening into Thursday across W Wales, N Devon & Cornwall as a "Pembrokeshire Dangler" develops so plenty of potential in what's been a snow starved west for the last several winters -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
ACCOUNT DELETED replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS 12z brings a brief spell of milder air next Thursday quickly followed by much colder air again. However it still looks like the milder air will then return by next weekend again with the coldest weather restricted to mainland Europe. -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
ACCOUNT DELETED replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Still some disagreement between GFS, ECM & UKMO perhaps? Many people (including myself) have noticed this temperature difference from various parts of the U.K. & Ireland. UKMO continues to be "less cold" than the others -
Model output discussion - mid January
ACCOUNT DELETED replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Perhaps UKMO is showing less cold upper air at that time? Anyway Tuesday is a long way off in terms of weather forecasting and a lot can and probably will change by then. We might end up somewhere in between UKMO & that GFS 6z by the time Tuesday comes.- 2,804 replies
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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
ACCOUNT DELETED replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There is a front expected to push in on Saturday some models suggest some decent hill snow but low ground and the coasts look like getting rain (or perhaps sleet if we're lucky) lol -
Model output discussion - mid January
ACCOUNT DELETED replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'm confused now, UKMO and many other charts show widespread cold developing but yet Swansea BBC forecast is dry from tomorrow until well into next week with daytime highs between 7-9C throughout. Very strange- 2,804 replies
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Model output discussion - mid January
ACCOUNT DELETED replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I would, bring it on- 2,804 replies
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Model output discussion - mid January
ACCOUNT DELETED replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
We're under high pressure now you wouldn't think it I know with this constant drizzle & mist this weekend but its currently about 1035mb in Swansea so pretty strong- 2,804 replies
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Model output discussion - mid January
ACCOUNT DELETED replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well in May that would bring in some reasonable warmth especially in the west, it would much be cooler on the east coast though with a cold breeze off the North Sea- 2,804 replies
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Model output discussion - mid January
ACCOUNT DELETED replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
No sign of Spring according to the CFS model lol it suggests an average February this year. SW UK including S Wales and S Ireland could turn slightly colder than average by March perhaps finally with some snow given that the sea temps will be at their seasonal coldest? then an average April followed by a cooler May & June. Well I certainly wouldn't put it past that happening anyway- 2,804 replies
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Model output discussion - mid January
ACCOUNT DELETED replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Same with me for South Wales we've had so much rain recently the fields are waterlogged making some main roads turn into muddy rivers and there's been some flooding of properties- 2,804 replies
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Model output discussion - mid January
ACCOUNT DELETED replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hahaha you couldn't make it up, ECM shows a tiny little finger of mild air stretching across SW England & SW Wales to spoil the party elsewhere it stays colder- 2,804 replies
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Model output discussion - mid January
ACCOUNT DELETED replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM shows a ridge of high pressure across the UK & Ireland on Tuesday, low pressure returning Wednesday bringing colder air in northern & central areas but staying milder in south. Friday northerly winds but sheltered parts of southern England and South Wales could stay dry and sunny. Next weekend that high looks to be remaining close to SW UK and becoming milder again. Thankfully GFS 6z show rainfall totals in the SW expected to be much less than recently during the next 5 days- 2,804 replies
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Model output discussion - mid January
ACCOUNT DELETED replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Like this you mean? Sunshine returning under lower pressure lol, yep that could happen again after a few days of gloomy damp weather- 2,804 replies
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