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Everything posted by ACCOUNT DELETED

  1. ACCOUNT DELETED
    UKMO has the rain moving into Wales later on Christmas Day to allow a dry morning with sunny spells, similar on Boxing Day, dry and sunny next Wednesday. Great news for those getting bikes, scooters etc from Santa
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    Could be but at the same time, GFS 12z has a max of 5C on NYD so a big difference!
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    Yes it does look to be temporary, GEM has early indications of widespread 13C across southern UK for New Year's Day with a plume of 10C @ 850mb across NW France!
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    Swansea GEFS 6Z: turning colder again next week, wet and windy at times (nothing stormy showing atm) but the main difference is we should see more in the way of sunshine after this drab cloudy even foggy weather we've had and continuing to have. Rain could hold off until late afternoon on Christmas Day, rain clearing to showers Boxing Day and the chance of a dry day on Wednesday so not too bad.
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    On the latest run though it would swing NE and weakens off NW Scotland. I agree though it's something to keep an eye on especially as lots of people will be out and about.
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    Personally I take those precipitation type charts with a truck-full of salt. For some places they might be accurate but for my location on the south coast of Wales I find them very inaccurate as well as the snow depth / accumulations chart, that's often way out.
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    @ 120h on the UKMO parts of Wales too
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    GEFS 6z 192hrs for Porthcawl near Swansea, shows a trend of turning colder from Christmas Day to slightly below average. Any heavy showers could contain hail & thunder on the coasts but there should be more sunshine around compared to what we're getting at the moment....... zilch!
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    And the Summer killer too because it can't get a good grip on the UK like it's doing now. Can't help but think if this was Summer we'd have awesome weather, blue skies, sunshine and lots of days spent in our gardens, parks & beaches!
  10. ACCOUNT DELETED
    What about that Boxing Day storm? Is that still showing on the GFS 12z? I can't look at the charts atm
  11. ACCOUNT DELETED
    A very wet festive period for western UK but this latest run has a reduction for my location near Swansea from around 3 inches on the GFS 18z to 2 inches on the 6z but nevertheless it looks like there could be some issues with flooding in the foreseeable future although nothing on the scale of the devastating and widespread December 2015 floods is currently expected.
  12. ACCOUNT DELETED
    That's not good news for us then because it seems like (during recent years anyway) that we can't have it very cold and snowy on both sides of the pond at the same time. Everytime USA had heavy snow and freezing temperatures we had storms and quite a lot of them too some years.......... so disappointing to see this
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    GEFS & GEM shows the big amount of uncertainty by Boxing Day, although as expected really being over a week away.
  14. ACCOUNT DELETED
    GFS 12z looks better for the south on Christmas Day & Boxing Day than it did yesterday, could it be the unsettled weather is getting pushed back a bit?
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    I agree, they say for here in Porthcawl near Swansea, it could reach 13-14C by Tuesday. I can't see that happening myself tbh
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    More concerning is the fact that 6 days of constant rain / drizzle is being forecast for here from Tuesday excluding today's full day of rain in South Wales despite having a strong area of high pressure over or near us throughout. It's something which I was really hoping wouldn't happen again as its occurred at least 4 times in the Autumn, now it seems we have to wait until lower pressure arrives next weekend before we get to see some drier weather and a return to sunny spells, it's going to be a long, long wait
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    Same old story on the GEFS 12z for Porthcawl near Swansea in that the upper air temperatures look set to remain a bit above average throughout, a strong rise in pressure before falling over Christmas but by how much who knows? Lol the ensembles don't as the lines are scribbled everywhere, so I've got no chance of working that out!
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    Swansea GEFS 6z table show a strong high pressure by the 21st but 1047mb on one run, I honestly can't see it being that high lol nevertheless it's very likely we are heading for a calm and hopefully dry period just as long as we can avoid the constant days of drizzle / fog, that often was the case back in Autumn when high pressure developed and we had to wait until a low to arrive which took up to a week, but unbelievably it brought a few dry, sunny and very mild days once the initial front went through!!
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    Just had a quick look at GEFS 12z for Porthcawl (nr Swansea) and nothing really has changed from the 6z. So still mild with a strong rise in pressure before falling quite a bit as we approach Christmas (wouldn't you know it? lol) when it looks set to become much wetter but temperatures could remain slightly above average throughout.
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    GEFS 6z for Porthcawl (nr Swansea) shows milder weather returning, especially in the upper air temperatures and a quick rise in pressure from now, quite a strong high pressure too approaching 1040mb with 12-13C possible by Tuesday before turning a bit cooler, as expected precipitation looks fairly low (although there are a few 'spikes') until Christmas on this run, so a very different feel after the cold weather we've had so far this month.
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    GFS has high pressure well and truly in charge next week bringing a lot of mild weather especially in southern & western areas with any cold air being very brief here, early indications are for a mild Christmas Eve in the SW of the UK, colder elsewhere particularly in the north & east.
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    High pressure with milder temperatures looks to be the story of next week so there could be some decent spells of weak winter sun around for the run up to Christmas, much better than heavy rain, gales, floods etc anyway IMO
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    Yes please, I'd like some more nice Winter sunshine on the run up to and over Christmas
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    I'm keeping a close eye on that too (although it seems a relatively low risk) as I'm due to drive up to Merthyr Tydfil tonight with my mate to do a Christmas gig. Hope we won't get stuck there!
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    Plenty of snow showing on GFS 18z from tomorrow evening right through Thursday although by then, they'll probably be in the form of showers, sometimes heavy with an added risk of hail & thunder especially near the coasts where it could be rain & sleet rather than snow. One to watch though, this cold snap is certainly not giving up yet!
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