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ACCOUNT DELETED

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Everything posted by ACCOUNT DELETED

  1. ACCOUNT DELETED
    GFS 12z looks real mixed next week of mild & cold air. However for SW UK it doesn't look too cold during the days here in Porthcawl, South Wales for example temperatures between 7-11C are expected next week but there will be some cold nights especially under any clear skies. Unfortunately it also looks much wetter compared to the 6z which isn't good news for the areas affected by flooding or for the swollen rivers. Is this a trend to losing the influence of the high that was forecasted in the south for a few days next week on previous runs because despite high pressure it looks to be yet another wet & miserable weekend
  2. ACCOUNT DELETED
    GFS 6z gives some relief from the floods, swollen rivers etc for SW UK with the weekly forecast rainfall totals being much less than last week giving an indication of the rain not being as heavy, persistent or indeed as frequent as the last 7 days.
  3. ACCOUNT DELETED
    JC has recently tweeted about how similar this winter is compared to 2013/14 he even compares February and we all know what that turned out to be like...... Let's just hope there won't be a repeat performance of Feb 14 over our side of the Atlantic
  4. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Not a snow maker in SW UK I wouldn't think with that high being close by but nevertheless plenty of dry, sunny weather so that's very good news after all the flooding in these areas recently
  5. ACCOUNT DELETED
    GFS 12z shows a much better weekend to come in the southwest compared to last weekend's wet Saturday followed by heavy rain and flooding on Sunday as high pressure has more of an influence here
  6. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Similar weather is also forecast in parts of South & West Wales today too despite the cloudy skies before it turns cooler again from tomorrow, cold enough for more hail showers by Thursday so a very short mild blip. Great to hear there's more colder conditions forecast for our areas during February and with the sea temperatures almost at their lowest by then, we might finally end up with a dusting of snow.
  7. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Exactly, same can be said for SW UK including areas near the W & S coasts of Wales as the sea temperatures reach their coldest.
  8. ACCOUNT DELETED
    No not quite as its between northern Scotland and Iceland hence the low pressure to the south of Iceland and high across southern UK and down into France
  9. ACCOUNT DELETED
    If this GFS 12z is correct, we can look forward to some really decent weather into the start of February with the lows being kept away. Another awesome model run
  10. ACCOUNT DELETED
    GFS 12z once again shows a settled end to January with lows tracking to the north of the UK thanks to the jet stream being further north than recently
  11. ACCOUNT DELETED
    By next Tuesday, hints of high pressure remaining across southern & perhaps central areas with more unsettled weather in the north. The Atlantic becoming more active and at the same time, there's low pressure across southern Portugal and down into western Morocco
  12. ACCOUNT DELETED
    GFS 12z High pressure hanging on in the south but becoming unsettled and windier in the north for the start of next week, again following what the 6z showed
  13. ACCOUNT DELETED
    GFS 12z after a brief cold spell on Friday it becomes milder from the west again on Saturday with a strong high pressure system same that was on the 6z. Jet stream taking the lows well to the north of the UK, allowing the high to build in
  14. ACCOUNT DELETED
    GFS 12z suggests it'll be colder but drier by Friday as high pressure builds in from the west. Jet stream taking a NE path before dropping southwards over the UK
  15. ACCOUNT DELETED
    It does still have high pressure in the south next weekend and into next Monday that'll do me, anything other than the severe gales and now the flooding rain in South Wales
  16. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Into next Monday and pressure starts to fall slowly. In the north it turns windier but the high remains across southern & central UK & Ireland with light winds for many. We then end up a bit more unsettled as the high drifts east but already out west another high is building in so could turn out to be a very short spell of unsettled weather And that high (1030mb across the SW) does indeed build in. IMO, it's a superb run this morning, so nice to see the end of this cold, wet and frequently windy weather is on its way soon.
  17. ACCOUNT DELETED
    GFS 6z A lovely strong area of high pressure pushing up from the south bringing decent weather to get out and about next weekend Strong high 1040mb approaching SW England to end the weekend, looking promising for a prolonged settled period of weather to see out out January.
  18. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Snowline very close to the South Wales coast on that chart, perhaps some surprise dusting of snow anywhere from Swansea Bay to Chepstow. Perhaps it's picking up on these cold sea temperatures in the eastern half of the Bristol Channel. You wouldn't need very cold upper air to bring the snow level down when the sea is that cold. Could be interesting especially as we move into February and the water temperatures haven't reached their coldest yet either.
  19. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Meteociel
  20. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Hints of much warmer 850mb temperatures across the USA after a prolonged bitterly cold period, could that finally allow a decent widespread cold snap/period for Western Europe as we head into February??? There's hopes
  21. ACCOUNT DELETED
    A big pattern change possible by next weekend with 850mb temperature anomalies showing the north becoming much milder including Scandinavia and the south colder especially across Iberia. For the UK, northern areas would be mild, very mild in Scotland, slightly milder than average across the south but SW England, Wales & SW Ireland would be around average.
  22. ACCOUNT DELETED
    GFS 6z also keeps the strong area of high pressure across much of the UK next weekend bringing plenty of dry, calm weather with a risk of fog & frost in the mornings.
  23. ACCOUNT DELETED
    GFS 6z @132h, high pressure pushing slightly further north in the Atlantic and low pressure slightly stronger NE of Shetland compared to the 0z
  24. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Either way I'm happy as its a big change (for the better) from the rain & gales we've had in SW UK for the first half of January anyway
  25. ACCOUNT DELETED
    GFS 12z much less stormy in the south but much windier in the north. Low pressure and gales are generally tracking further north giving the south a break from the severe gales. Hints of a very strong area high pressure building in the west by the end of January and into February bringing much drier & calmer conditions for many areas
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