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ACCOUNT DELETED

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Everything posted by ACCOUNT DELETED

  1. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Looks like the heating can be turned right down in the south during Sunday night into the early hours of Monday with temperatures between a balmy 10-12C
  2. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Just 0.5 % of that would be nice to see in South Wales it would make a very welcome change from rain & gales that's for sure
  3. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Much better charts from the GFS 6z for southern areas as we can look forward to having more influence of higher pressure which takes potential secondary lows and storms across the north. So finally a pattern change after 4 rounds of severe gales in just 2 weeks in the S & especially SW of the U.K. including Wales & ROI. 100% improvement IMO
  4. ACCOUNT DELETED
    As I sit here in South Wales listening to the wind howling from yet another secondary low taking the same track for the 4th time this month and we're only just over half way through it, IMO it's an absolutely amazing GFS 18z with high pressure building in the south, so a very welcome relief from all this cold, wet and very windy weather with the low pressure drifting further north away from us perhaps the start of a more substantial pattern change finally.
  5. ACCOUNT DELETED
    GEM 12z has a ridge of high pressure building so could be a much better start to next week in the south as we lose the cold, wet weather and replace it with something much milder, drier and less windy too
  6. ACCOUNT DELETED
    That might explain why surface CAPE levels were non existent through the channel yesterday, despite the torrential hail showers not one flash of lightning. Can't remember the last time I saw 5C. I'm now getting excited too, can't wait until February. Icon & JMA also showing more cold air arriving from the NW after a mild period to start next week.
  7. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Looks quite a bit south atm
  8. ACCOUNT DELETED
    @Dafydd Tomos Unlike Arome, GFS 6z on the other hand keeps the strongest winds through the Bristol & English Channel
  9. ACCOUNT DELETED
    CFS looks poor but suggests March will be our best chance, February looks mild again but thankfully April looks about average or slightly above this year!
  10. ACCOUNT DELETED
    IMO, not too bad model runs this morning, we have a nice ridge bringing much milder weather across the south by Monday on both UKMO & GFS 6z meanwhile, the ECM builds an even stronger area of high pressure by next weekend with 1030mb approaching the south coast of England.
  11. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Early indications show yet another mild start to February, what some people living on the coasts in the south call their 'snowy month', when the sea temperatures reach their coldest and the sun is not too strong. Let's hope it will be a cold, snowy month this year instead of a mild stormy one. There is talk of an SSW by the end of January so there's hope!
  12. ACCOUNT DELETED
    GFS 12z and the severe gales have been toned down but still going to be a rough few hours especially around the Bristol & English Channel coasts with 60-70mph gusts for a short period. This will be accompanied by heavy, squally rain and also fairly high Spring tides but not quite as high as they were during the first week of January storms, nevertheless there'll still be a risk of coastal flooding
  13. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Heavy rain & gales (severe in places) for central & southern UK from tomorrow evening but it does move through swiftly
  14. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Aye indeed, it's not over yet, looks like we could see more persistent showers of snow (inland) hail (coasts) later this evening again along with gale force WNW winds
  15. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Yes and unfortunately that pesky low brings an abrupt end to these awesome hail showers in South Wales which is temporarily turning the ground white and making it look wintry. Once this clears Thursday we'll be left with the plain old rain showers as this cold air doesn't return, in fact it's getting milder, up to 9-10C by Sunday so a short cold snap which I'm enjoying anyway
  16. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Some absolutely belting downpours of hail on the coast of South Wales last night very frequent too which brought some temporary accumulations, these showers forming lines at times are expected to continue today & tonight but with the air & ground temperature becoming a bit colder compared to last night although no snow is forecast for us, hail accumulations could well increase as it lasts longer on the ground leading to very tricky driving conditions by this evening but fun for the kids as when this happened in December they were out playing in it and sliding down the street on their sledge. #hailisthenewsnow
  17. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Good luck for snow in west Wales tomorrow, you might be lucky because here on the South Wales coast it's a case of sunshine & heavy rain showers @7C so nothing exciting
  18. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Unfortunately the storm looks to be shifting southwards on each run and this means so are the strongest, damaging wind gusts, not good news at all for Wales. If this trend continues as well as the intensity, we *could* end up with another 12 February 2014 storm when winds in the Irish Sea & Bristol Channel gusted up to 100mph causing widespread damage and power cuts. However one thing certain is, unlike that storm which peaked early afternoon when lots of people were out and about and the kids were in school, this will be an overnight feature, so a sleepless night for many but at least very few people will be out in it.
  19. ACCOUNT DELETED
    ECM 12z takes a more northerly track
  20. ACCOUNT DELETED
    I'm hoping the ECM 12z takes this storm system much further north or south just to keep the worst of the winds away from the populated areas, fingers crossed
  21. ACCOUNT DELETED
    I said time and time again to myself do not get excited over a heavily modified polar maritime airmass and thank goodness I listened lol! on the plus side though next week is looking average on the thermometer but will feel colder in the wind and there is also a recurring theme from MO that after a showery start we can expect a fair bit of dry, sunny weather especially from midweek. So I agree with you, not a washout by any means
  22. ACCOUNT DELETED
    GFS 0z is absolutely abysmal for the south with severe gales during the early hours of Thursday, frequent heavy rain, often windy and turning very mild by next weekend but remaining unsettled so it seems like the flood risk will be increasing once again. Coastal flooding could be a big concern for Wednesday evening & Thursday morning's high Spring tides especially through the Bristol Channel & English Channel
  23. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Might scrape 1cm in my location on the South Wales coast still if that happened, it would be 1cm more than we've had since 2010! I'd settle for that
  24. ACCOUNT DELETED
    And the English Channel coasts with gusts up to 60-70mph very windy across all of southern England too, fortunately this low is not as intense as the GFS 0&6z
  25. ACCOUNT DELETED
    "This MJO event is doing work on N. Hemispheric circulation" what does this mean for us?
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