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ACCOUNT DELETED

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  1. ACCOUNT DELETED
    CFS says March winds will be cold across much of Europe and keeps it a bit colder than average across the UK into April too. We had snow showers at the end of April last year, could it happen again this year who knows we might end up with a white Easter? Lol
  2. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Porthcawl nr Swansea GEFS: still looks very good, starting cold then briefly milder before turning colder than average again through next week, snow risk returning. Severe gale, frequent heavy rain risk gone for at least the next week which is excellent news
  3. ACCOUNT DELETED
    That's what I noticed, at the very least it should take some oomph out of the jet meaning a decent break from the relentless gales and rain even if it doesn't snow!
  4. ACCOUNT DELETED
    well there's hopes, upper air temperatures over the east of the USA will become much milder early next week, so in theory that should take a lot of the oomph out of the jet and perhaps bring us something colder but even if doesn't, it should at least bring an end to the severe gales and very frequent rain for a while
  5. ACCOUNT DELETED
    A short cold snap to come for us in South Wales before turning a bit milder again but the main thing next week is it'll be much less windier and drier which is excellent news for many!
  6. ACCOUNT DELETED
    And that rain bumping into very cold air initially could bring a better chance of snow to western areas
  7. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Same in South Wales but rain moving in off the Atlantic into very cold air is the best setup for snow in our areas, NE or E winds often mean dry, clear & cold weather both are better than rain & gales anyway!
  8. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Storm Eleanor has now been named by the Irish Met Office, it's expected to move across the UK from tomorrow evening bringing heavy, squally rain and severe gales. GFS 18z starting to roll out shortly and for me I'll be concentrating on the next 36 hours snow/cold can wait for now.
  9. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Yes it looks very rough, gusts up to 70mph W then WNW winds, hopefully there won't be any severe coastal flooding as we're experiencing high spring tides this week.
  10. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Some decent NE/E winds bringing much colder air across the UK & Ireland. I have to say although this can often bring lots of snow to the east of the UK, (maybe eastern Ireland too from off the Irish Sea) many western areas (including where I am in South Wales) usually stays sunny, cold and frosty throughout. However if any rain tries to sneak in from an approaching Atlantic low (there are hints of this happening next week), once it bumps into the cold air, then the snow risk rapidly increases for us too for a time anyway. Those scenarios have brought some decent snow even on the coast. One to watch.
  11. ACCOUNT DELETED
    I'm having problems viewing the GFS on Meteociel today, it's now switching from 12z to 18z back to 6z as I go to scroll through. Anyone else got this problem? I don't know if I'm coming or going with it!
  12. ACCOUNT DELETED
    I just heard that too on their week ahead forecast.
  13. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Met Office obs last 24 hours shows nothing like that lol, it must be an error
  14. ACCOUNT DELETED
    I see what you mean, very strange how that's showing, I know there's real squally showers with thunder in Weymouth earlier moving NE but that seems way too extreme.
  15. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Strongest winds in northern UK. They were unsure if the winds will turn westerly which would increase the risk of damaging gusts through the central belt of Scotland that's what I recently heard. Apart from that, nothing's changed including the warnings.
  16. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Swansea GEFS 0 & 6z showing a trend for colder weather, snow risk increasing too.
  17. ACCOUNT DELETED
    It still looks like it could turn colder by the end of next week though don't you think?
  18. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Well another potential dusting of snow gone bust for us. Very poor GFS forecast for Porthcawl it literally had snow showing across a 50 mile radius. Looking at the charts, it doesn't seem like there'll be another chance for us for a while (although the Pembrokeshire Dangler is trying to push further east but not currently falling as snow). The rain & gales will become more frequent unfortunately so flood risk will be getting a real concern after such a wet Christmas & Boxing Day especially, so hopefully February/March will indeed be our snowy months (as it used to be well known for snow to fall and stick here) on the coast next year
  19. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Will it won't it???? GFS 18z (last run before the expected snow) continues to show widespread snow across much of Wales and S&C England (including the coasts this time) might set my alarm for 4am and hopefully watch the snow falling in Porthcawl, either that or it'll be a big let down again like 10th Dec!
  20. ACCOUNT DELETED
    GFS 12z still brings a risk of snow across Wales including the south coast. Also to note, sea temperatures in much of the Bristol Channel are currently lower than they've been for several years at this time of year (they're more like we'd expect to see from the end of January through February) this doesn't guarantee snow but if we don't get any on Wednesday then it won't be because the sea is too mild.
  21. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Merry Christmas everyone Nadolig Llawen pawb On the beach in Porthcawl ready to watch the Christmas swim and its a balmy 13C, so yet again this year if it wasn't for all the festive costumes, it wouldn't feel like Christmas Day at all, more like Halloween! ? Snow still showing across Wales and moving East on the GFS 6z from the early hours of Wednesday so a big change coming. Hope you all have a great day
  22. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Sleet showing already for the coast of South Wales on the GFS & Met Office forecast. Also the sea temperature has dropped from 10-8C in just a fortnight so that might help but no guarantees
  23. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Looks like the GFS 0z has had a bit too much of the 'Christmas spirit' already! Nevertheless it's very, very rare to see a high 1050mb moving into the UK from the SW
  24. ACCOUNT DELETED
    Wednesday morning looks interesting with a risk of snow across Wales. Now I know the south coast of Wales had wet snow/sleet/rain on the 10 December with no accumulations. However since then, sea temperatures have dropped another 2C. Despite the mild weather this week, the temperature is now down to 8C the coldest is around 7C in February/ early March and this is the coldest Christmas swims for a good few years. So does that guarantee snow at sea level? NO as there are many other factors that need to be considered but it does help in lowering the freezing level. So if we get the right conditions it could be an interesting Jan & Feb for us, if not we end up with the plain old rain like previous years. Wednesday's snow risk is questionable at the moment.
  25. ACCOUNT DELETED
    GFS ensembles 192hrs for Porthcawl near Swansea follow UKMO again and indicate a colder but drier midweek with a ridge of high pressure, so I'm slowly gaining more confidence in this and after this dull, dark week with frequent fog & drizzle it will come as a welcome relief for many to see drier, brighter and indeed sunnier weather.
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