ACCOUNT DELETED

Big change there, yesterday it was showing temperatures up to a balmy 21C in the south next Sunday

Bring on the beach weather lol what a cracking start to half term here in Wales that would be!

Gusts up to 60mph on the coast of South Wales. So a disappointing start to half term especially for those coming here on holidays in places such as Tenby, Pendine,Gower, Porthcawl etc but there shouldn't be any major impacts here. Main thing to bear in mind though, we have high Spring tides at the moment so seafronts and promenades could be dangerous at times of the morning & evening high tides on Saturday. The strongest gusts should clear SW Wales by dinner time and SE Wales by teatime although it'll remain fairly gusty well into the afternoon. Heavy rain at first will be followed by sunshine and heavy showers which should ease off across the west by teatime leaving a drier evening. Sunday is expected to be bright and breezy then next week high pressure building so after a wet start it should become much drier and a lot less windy too. Have a great half term everyone:)

Could be a dreadful start to half term if the GFS 12z is right. This is not good as some people will be going on holidays both home and abroad. For those towing touring caravans on Saturday take extra care on the roads.

A decent enough half term week is on the cards if this GFS 6z is correct.

Here in South Wales, it looks like Monday will be the peak of the warm spell with temperatures getting up to 21C in places but I wouldn't be surprised if we get a tad higher than that. Sunday is 20C Max with long spells of sunshine and Saturday will probably be the coolest of the weekend at around 15C and quite cloudy. So it seems like the October beach days are returning here again (only for a short period) this year but this time, it may well be even warmer

GFS 6z looks a big disappointment atm the high is just too far west by Friday and Saturday and as a result, it's keeping the heavy / thundery showers around instead of it becoming more settled, what's worse, the high is already retreating back SW before it even reaches us can't upload charts as I'm in a low 3G coverage area.

Yes better weather further East but for my location near Swansea it looks wet and often very windy with no dry day at all between now and Thurs if the GFS 6z is correct.

Doesn't look as though we'll see a decent day next Tues on the GFS 6z as was forecasted yesterday but high pressure slowly builds by Thursday especially in the south. This has been indicated for a good few days.

GFS 6z has got the high building in from next Friday, a day earlier from the 0z. No guarantees of course but it's been showing this trend now for a few days.

One thing that has been shown by GFS and a few other models for the last few days is high pressure building in from the West by mid September, so hopefully a big improvement for many areas with relatively mild sunny days and cool nights.

Going to Tenby, SW Wales camping for a few days, really hope and pray those big downpours and thunderstorms that's showing up on the forecasts and charts miss us as it'll bad enough trying to keep warm in our tent let alone trying to stop everything getting damp! Latest GFS still indicates a fair amount of cape in the area on Tues but shows much less now on Weds.

Not sure how likely this outcome will be, but this model suggests the very heavy rain moving up from SW England tomorrow, may turn to snow as it crosses Wales and then into Northern Ireland!

Lol we had plenty of those during the last few Winters in S Wales. They came rolling in on and off all day and night from the Bristol Channel!

Sunday's low much shallower on GFS 18z Plenty of cape with slightly negative lifted values around the south & west and over much of Ireland though by the afternoon so heavy, thundery showers might get blown inland on the breeze especially near the coasts where cape remains the highest from Saturday evening onwards.

The 12Z is looking good for coldness next week. It would make a big change compared to what the last few Februarys has brought ie rain & gales! With regards to being too mild increasing daylight hours / strength of the sun etc, many meteorologists would tell you that with us being an island, we have more chance of snow falling at lower levels & coastal areas at this time of year because the sea temperatures are almost at their coldest. Here on the coast in S Wales, I remember seeing some great snowfalls and even the odd blizzard during February & March, proper snow days they were and there's no reason why it couldn't be possible to happen again sometime

Thank you, much appreciated.

Thank you, much appreciated.

Thank you, much appreciated.

Hi everybody, I'm trying to understand how the ensembles graphs work. I know about the 20 different runs/scenarios they produce. I'm guessing the red line is the average from all 20 ensembles, blue is obviously control which is what we see shown on the main charts, but can somebody tell me what exactly does the white line "GFS Run" indicate please?

This morning, it said 13°C with sunny spells for my location at that time. A few people have mentioned it to me and looking forward to an early start to Spring. They may be in for a bit of a shock though lol

There's a lot of uncertainty over these secondary lows this weekend, some weather websites now suggest Sunday could turn stormy in the SW of the U.K.

It's getting difficult to keep up with those small but intense lows on the GFS.... Now showing gales/severe gales for S England and S & W Wales on Friday & Sunday. Hopefully the worst of the gusts will push through fairly swiftly. Things will probably change again though by the next run but it's a weekend that needs watching carefully in the south!

BBC weather for the month ahead says wet & windy weather for much of the upcoming month. Well looking at the models, it looks like an unsettled 7 days or so to come but thereafter, there are hints of the jet stream easing off again somewhat. I'm not sure which chart they use and as I'm still learning about the weather patterns and how to read and understand various models etc then we'll just have to wait and see if they're correct or not.....

Ah that's a shame, thanks anyway for the reply