sawan

I am no expert in meteorology, whatever I have learnt is from you guys and have great respect for all of you . Something else that I have learnt is not to trust FI. It's been nearly 9 weeks since we have started the chase and it is getting further and further away. ECM's verification stats are a lot better than GFS and is consistently showing flatter solution. Unless all big 3 are onboard and easterly is within 96 hrs, I would observe caution. Sorry Mods if it doesn't fit the criteria of model discussion.

The only reliable model imo is the UKMO which @96 hrs looks really good... Another 24 hrs i.e. @120hrs and this still not too bad...... and @144hrs, clearly succumbing to the force from the west, I think tomorrows UKMO will show a complete collapse of the so called "Beast from the East" is dead.

Snowed for about 15 minutes in West of Coventry. Good to see footpaths covered

Hi Knocks, going through your posts the most abundantly used word is 'marginal'. Do you think this winter has been on the boundary line set up? I can't remember any 'knife edge' winters like this since I have developed this odd passion about the weather

I am surprised that the GFS has picked the signal up so early, usually the models struggle at this stage with all sorts of scenarios. From previous experience, the milder solution is always spot on for this unfortunate island, and ECM is the one this time.

What a miserable weather, rained earlier at 1C. This year should be officially called as the year of sleet.

12Z Arpege isn't interested in any snowfall for the midlands tomorrow. Precipitation is over Norfolk when cold air digs in.

No activity in this thread, I think we had our turn early during the season. It might be that after this cold albeit dry spell, there might be a reload and we might get some snow

Back to the models, there is still plenty to look forward to, there is only one mild sector appearing and I am sure there will be a reload. Come on guys cheer up

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20180201/18/276/h850t850eu.png Don't worry friends, it will reload with a vengeance

I don't think this set up could deliver anything apart from cold rain, except north west Scotland, .

@Steve with respect and I mean it, the forcing from the Eastern see board is huge due to massive temperature gradient that in another few days time all of these beauties will be blown away. So I would suggest to stick to the reliable until all big 3 agree somewhat ?

What's the advice for the UK...........batten down the hatches?

Just looked out of the window it rained ground is wet. Cars are wet and everythimg else is wet. Now dandruf falling from sky?. And wont stick ?

Sweet spot would be east midlands and northeast east midlands, Leicester should get 5-8 cm tomorrow

I think beebs have been pretty much spot on for the past few weeks, I don't want to get disappointed by following something which is not so much reliable

This seems to be a more north, north east Midland and upward event, Coventry shows up as sleet for a few hours tomorrow and then back to normal

Knocker, what's its trajectory please, couldn't sleep last night due to strong gusts of wind. I am sure it will spare central England this time.

Initial forecast for winter 2017-18 as a 'front loaded' was spot on. December was quite exciting, can't see anything in near future now.

That's what ECM has shown earlier, for sure it's 10 days away and chances of this to verify are almost none. This is again leading to the garden path only to disappoint few hours later. So I am observing caution.

Northeast of Iceland

Last night chucked down here in Coventry with snow, especially around 12:00 to 1:30am, proper blizzards like. Surprisingly not much of it settled.

Turning to sleet now in coventry, Beebs have also downgraded to more sleet later during the night.

Would it pivot? Seems to be getting through quite quickly, at this rate might not get more than 30 min of snow here in Coventry?

Couldn't resist signing in to warn everyone, please take this output with a lorry load of salt. Otherwise it gets quite depressing reading through some of the comments. Not criticizing on this post of course