Methuselah

This morning's GEFS 00Zs are still heading in the desired direction. Just! Not exactly nailed on even in Helsinki:

What a stonker! Jingle bells, Batman smells!

It's coming!

Out to Day 5. And it's 'No Bartlett, No Cry'!

PS: I just remembered that Winter 1974-75 was one of this year's closest analogues!

-30C T850s away to our NE has to be a good thing, should January's synoptics ever choose to play ball? And, for an added bonus, Kentucky Fried Squirrel might be back on the Xmas menu!?️

I think that, after shooting up to 12-13C early next week, things'll cool down to around average once the anticyclone takes hold, and the SW wind gets cut off. However, morning fog/frost might keep some places rather cold? Who knows!

I was going to explain just why I'm so sceptical of BOOM Perbs. But the Met Office does a far better job than I ever could!

Along the same lines as something someone once said: Don't worry. It won't!

Interesting? Even though it's only one run from only one model, something might be afoot; a definite downturn in predicted T850s post-December 19: And 2m temperatures for Moscow go right off the chart! It's a bit of an outlier, I know, but a step in the right direction nonetheless?

Well, that was an intriguing run, wasn't it? For me, though, I'll stick with not expecting any real cold until nearer to New Year? But, should reality at T+384 be anywhere near the 06Z's prognostication, -25C T850s in NW Russia would equate to one very big 'building block' being in place!

Well, it's almost as if, after all the toing and froing, the GFS 12Z has brought us back to this: flip-flop, flip-flop?! Some things just never change?

Just going down the DIY shop and a 10kg tin of Acme Turd Polish is ready and waiting! You can do it, when you B&Q it!

Well then, before I go and buy myself a brand-new pair of Dr Scholl's mountaineering sandals, I thought I'd peruse the latest GEFS ensembles. And, after due consideration of my options, I think I'll leave that particular purchase for the Boxing Day Sales!

Aye, it's a case of 'where has all the deep, cold air buggered off to'? And, to make matters even worse, our chances of seeing anything fine and mild have also decreased? Such a shame. As I was looking forward some barbecued squirrelburgers!

GFS 06Z at T+324: All aboard for a game of SPOT THE SNOWGRAIN?

To be brutally honest, chaps, I can see no sign at all of imminent cold weather. What I can see (or at least imagine) is a good old-fashioned blast coming from either the east (should deep cold fitter down around a Scandi block) or from the north, if our resident-to-be anticyclone gets sucked into the Greenland-Iceland area? IMO, there's plenty reason for remaining optimistic. But the New Year looks a better bet than Xmas just now? Winter is coming!

January, February and Smarch: swinging back-and-forth between very mild & wet and very cold and dry/snowy; I expect at least one week-long severe easterly outbreak; April, May and June: a funny one, depending on the whereabouts of rogue cold air-masses left over from winter; June-September: some hot, thundery weather is hoped-for; what we get is anyone's guess! October and November: the usual autumntime crap! December: like every year, rubbish weather and shops chock-full of totally pointless Christmas crap. Bah, humbug!

Surely, they can't be that gullible?

It's on the rain-sleet cusp, BB. Doubly depressing!

Clearly there's plenty of variation in today's GEFS 06Z ensembles. Not only in Blighty, but in Moscow too! Is winter biding its time?

True. Even the famous winter of 1963 had a less-cold week in February. And December 1969 was mild until a couple of days after Christmas, when cold air came westward out of mainland Europe. At least, this winter, there's cold air where it's meant to be?

Well, it's now Day 10 on the mighty GFS 06Z, and it's what I don't see that makes me feel optimistic: Unlike this time last year, there's no conveyor belt of warm, moist air running from the Med into Scandinavia. So, hopefully, less likelihood of an early-January deluge of rain & sleet -- should we tap into a northeasterly airstream?

Day 5 on the GFS 06Z, and things look a tad confused: how will the Scandi block hold up; how fast/soon will the Atlantic systems roll in?