steelermark
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Posts posted by steelermark
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Don’t post often on here despite being around for 15 years + but this was our back garden in Chesterfield on 1st Dec 2010. What an event that was.
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Massive flakes in Chesterfield. Nicely covering the drive that I've just cleared to get my other half off to work. About 3" now. Not as good as Boxing day but still nice to see.
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We had 9 inches here in West Wales took the train to Cov Christmas Eve 2010, nowhere had more than a foot the whole journey, generally 3 to 6 inches.
There was 20" + of snow in Chesterfield and surrounding areas.
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Don't post much at all on these forums but have been an avid reader for years now.
The standard of posting in here today from some has been diabolical. It spoils the whole thing. We all know that charts have been shown to be different within 12 hrs of the last one. So, anybody posting that winter is over or no cold in January is clearly looking for people to bite. It would be so much better if some decided to walk away from their keyboards, sit and think about what they are going to say, then be objective in their post. It would stop ruining this thread for the people that are trying to learn.
Sorry mods, not model related I know, but this thread is so poor right now.
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I don't think anyones arguing Shed, of course everyone appreciates Ians input. That's not the issue at all, just I think perhaps theres more uncertainty than the modelling suggests. And again our terminology in here might be a bit different to the UKMO, zonal in here normally means strong Azores high limpet PV to the north and west/sw flow for the majority of the time, and that's not what I see from the modelling. So I think the term zonal used probably means the proximity of low pressure rather than the normal terror term that most people associate with that word zonal.
I understood a zonal flow was just a flow from the predominant direction. So for us that is westerly. Whether it's straight westerly, north westerly or south westerly it's still zonal. Obviously very different conditions on the ground.
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I think the upcoming spell has all the markings of a spell of weather I remember as an 8 or 9 year old. Not sure if it was 78 or 79 but we were travelling back from Manchester to Sheffield over the snake pass and we'd left early due to the weather forecast saying there was a big battle between east and west right above our heads. It was throwing it down with rain in Manchester but obviously going over the snake would be different. It was snowing heavily on the snake pass but raining very heavily in Sheffield at the other side.
I remember the forecasters saying it should stay as rain for us so I went to bed disappointed. Imagine my surprise when I woke up in the morning to nearly 10" of snow. Everything was wet through at 10pm the previous evening, puddles everywhere. It stayed on the floor for a week.
So looking through the models now , it just looks a very similar event coming up. Not sure anyone can confidently say which way it's going just yet. Us coldies may be left disappointed again but the people calling mild continually may well get egg on their faces come next weekend.
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I said 'milder' Nick not mild, which when compared with what could still potentially move in from the east was the correct word to use. Re post T+228hrs who knows? Ever T+120hrs is very much up in the air.
Looking at the 00z London ENS it was clear the Op was very much on the colder side post T+120hrs...all the 06 appears to have done is corrected somewhat closer to the mean, which is where i think it will sit when it's ENS become available.
But your post inferred milder air in the sense of "no" cold. But that's not true, those charts, if verified, could bring a fair bit of snow to some areas.
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There's your answer shedhead. It's pretty obvious the pattern is changing to be fair. It's just we don't know to what pattern yet.An emerging number of MOGREPS members are starting to show much colder solutions by end of the trend period (15d). This hadn't been the case recently.
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Actually this isn't correct - the metar report from Glasgow airport was showing 14c at both 11:00 and 12:00 today.
But anyway, can we use this thread to discuss the models please.
Paul, I agree with this but I did clearly state it was the met office observation from Glasgow/Bishopton where I had taken my information from. The point is it wasn't going to go up to 15c at all, it had already started to come down. At 12.50 it was 14c at 13.20 it was 12c. At 13.08 Shed said 15c was highly likely when in fact the temperature was already falling.
As I mentioned on my post why the need for exaggeration?
Too many people that clearly just want to wind other members up or bang the same drum time and time again. Next time I shall use the report button as requested.
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Here is the 11.50 ob from Glasgow MPG, showing temp of 14c, with a max of 15c looking very possible... prob best not to rely to heavily on GFS predicted temps, whether they be max or min.
. EGPF 101150Z 21014KT 9999 FEW021 BKN038 14/08 Q1021
Don't post very often, normally just read but where have you got 14c maybe up to 15c from? According to the met office the maximum temperature at Glasgow airport was at 1pm today at 12.4c. At 2pm it was 11.8c, so clearly slowly falling away. It's certainly not 14c or 15c. yes it's mild but why exaggerate to make your point?
It's 2c cooler in Chesterfield today than it was yesterday at 1pm, same in Nottingham, Sheffield, City of London etc.
Yes it's mild and will stay mild for the reliable, I think we're all aware of that by now. We certainly don't need reminding every other post.
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As I thought 00Z models trending away from easter snow, keeps it cold and dry through the week, will be a slow thaw through the week, big thaw if sun comes out long enough
That's not quite true though is it? Very little change from yesterday across the models, maybe another attempt from the ECM at 240 to bring slightly milder air in but then it showed that yesterday in it's 0z suite and dropped it for the 12z. GFS not even worth commenting on.
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Largely agree with John and co re the convective potential. It's there, but impossible to say who, when or how much at those time frames. Much stronger agreement now though on decent uppers. So, easterly, decent uppers, pressure not too high (unlike last feb). Will it snow? Pass, but we are now in the game and it should be a very interesting period of weather coming up.
Re the meto forecasts, given time frames I'd do exactly the same tbh. If things look dicey from their viewpoint they can change emphasis with their public statements and still give a good few days warning.
Jason
Edit re Steelemark - no flaming as judging by your post above I'm wasting my time
Your not wasting your time though. If you read both our posts, we pretty much agree in the potential. But, at this moment, it's nothing more than that. It may well stay dry as the Met O say or we may end up with something pretty decent. My only point you don't agree with is my picking out of certain posts that regularly just bang the "dry" drum. We're all entitled to our opinion, as you have already stated, but the repetitive nature of some of the posts is just as bad as some of the snowmageddon one's we see regularly.
It's clear we can both see the "potential" of the latest models so maybe we should just stick to that rather than pulling each other's posts apart.
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Exactly what some of us have been saying, until we see the MetO on board then all talk of heavy snow and wintry conditions are pie in the sky, again!
At the risk of getting flamed by Jason M again, with the utmost respect you never post anything different. Just as much as you go on about it being dry, then other people can talk about the snow risk. The fact the Met O are not talking about it now doesn't mean it's not going to happen, it's simply too far away. The facts are that none of us know whether it's going to be dry or whether we'll be digging ourselves out come next weekend.
Just as some get accused of over the top ramping, there are just as many that just want to sit there with the "I said this and I said that" and you are all wrong attitude. Quite frankly that's just as bad.
From my perspective, living in the North Midlands, I'm not expecting too much at present but we all know that things can change very quickly. It's happened this year and it's happened just about every winter I've been on here. The one thing we can all be certain of is that the models say it's going to turn cold, not cool, but cold.
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Probably the only thing worse is the posters that feel the need to bang on about those that are supposedly banging on about it being dry. For the benefit of those willing to learn, your evidence to debunk this supposed myth is?
Actually many years of reading this forum with people going on about it showing dry when in fact we end up with inches of the white stuff on the floor just a few days later. The 18z proves that trying to work out precipitation this far out is pointless. It's anything but dry on that run!!
I wasn't banging on about it either, I mentioned it once unlike the people talking about it being "dry".
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Yes, it's impossible to say 'mainly dry' once you are in a cold flow with fairly low heights because you don't know what will pop up.
Exactly, the same 2 or 3 posters banging the "it's going to be dry" drum all evening when I've lost count of the number of times I've read the same thing on here over the years and then I've sat watching 6 inches of snow fall outside my window just a few days later. It seems that some just never learn, or aren't willing to learn.
Things pop up out of anywhere in cold easterly flows.
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Very little point worrying about convective potential. Only a relatively tiny shift of the synoptic pattern can have massive consequences on snowfalls. Take for example Dec 2010. Around 5 days prior to the cold spell I looked set for alot of convective snow showers and yet at the last minute a tiny change and I missed most of the snow and yet 40miles to my N they had over 40cm!!
We certainly did, almost 2 feet on the top of my car In Chesterfield, yet in Derby just a dusting in comparison. It does look like we could be heading into a decent spell as next week wears on. Little point in looking at snowfall this far out.
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To be honest that goes for a whole host of posters on here. This time yesterday morning 90% of posters were waving good bye to winter and spring was on its way, 24hrs later and we're suddenly looking at a deep freeze.
Yeah, difference being most of the posters on here are amateur hobbyists not professionals unlike Matt. A tweet from yesterday suggesting the cold ensembles are looking even more "lonely" after this mornings charts looks completely wrong. Are we going to tweet Narnia is coming today?? Maybe, as London Snow said, the pro's should be less bullish about what they write on Twitter until confidence is higher. Especially this winter.
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Matt works for Metra, the NZ-owned forecasting company, and he's highly rated by my UKMO colleagues. Moreover, his brief description of how the 12z EC Op sits versus the MSLP cluster postage stamps issued out to t+240 is a wholly fair assessment. I fail to see why anyone would seek to snipe at him when he's merely reflecting a dichotomy over how blocking might take shape and in turn, the scope of how pronounced a cold feed into UK might become. The clusters offer a raft of potential outcomes, as might be expected at that range.
It wasn't a snipe as such. I haven't the faintest clue how you and the others go and unravel what the models have shown this winter. But, some people take what he put's on Twitter as gospel and then go declaring the next ice age or a global warming induced early spring. I know this is more the Twitter readers problem than Matt's, but I was merely trying to point out that just because Matt says the EC32 says this or the MOGREPS says that, it doesn't mean that is what will happen. Look at the models this morning to the models tonight as a perfect example.
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ECM full ensemble
According to Matt Hugo the ECM is a cold outlier
Bit of a lurker on here really but been reading every winter for at least the last 5 years. I've lost count of the number of times I've seen a Twitter update on here from Matt Hugo. From what I've seen over the winter, he flips and flops around as much as the models do. One minute it's going to be cold, the next an early spring and people seem to hang off every word he says.
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Think I'll just stick to radar and window watching from here. One run goes west, the next east. I'm not sure any model has got it nailed. 5cm for Chesterfield would suite me fine, with hopefully a bigger top up Mon/Tues. Least I'll still be able to get to the ice hockey in Sheffield!!
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Quick question for the experts on here. As the models show the fronts moving further north east or staying further south west would I be correct in thinking that shower activity would be greatly increased for areas just North of the front with the increase in windspeed and lowering of 850's etc?
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And this is the post of the day so far for me. Yes it's cold and yes there's been snow, but come on folks, time to get real. Five miles down the road it was raining yesterday afternoon, Not really much of a cold 'block' is it?
I'd love things to be 1947 all over again, but a kid blowing through a pea shooter on the Scilly Isles could probably blast this feeble effort away!!!
But that's completely untrue isn't it?. The block is only just getting established over the British Isles. Yesterday was always going to be marginal for some because of the warm sector, anybody that believed anything else clearly wasn't reading what was in front of them.
Temperatures are going to continue to fall away as the week goes on, by the time the fronts arrive the cold air will be fully entrenched over pretty much everybody. It won't get blown away like you say at all. Somebody, somewhere will have some fun this weekend but it won't be everybody, it hardly ever is in situations like this.
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Hi Steelermark I am from the south so not quite true, I just see the 'improvement' overall and the slowing down of the Atlantic as each run/day passes and the shifting south of the jetstream.
If this trend continues whether 1st attempt 2nd or 3rd snow will be had by most. Temps in south looking to be 0c daytime MAXIMA come Thurs / Fri. Bring on the fronts.
BFTP
Not saying all posters BFTP just some.
Either way somewhere this weekend is going to get something not seen since the 70's and 80's and somewhere will be disappointed. That's the weather unfortunately.
The charts, to my untrained eye anyway, do appear to be showing things getting better for more of the country, who knows where we will be by the time the first front actually hits.
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First thing in the morning and we are already at each other today? Wouldn't it be nice if we could have a day in this thread where people analysed the model output rather than each other please?
Agreed but I think people need to put away the imby view of the model runs.It's clear to see the people saying the charts are not as good are in the south of the country. Whilst for the midlands north, if it's lot's of snow your are after, they don't get much better.
Posters need to remain objective on here and save the imby stuff for the regionals. It does get difficult when you get two posters next to each other, with one saying massive downgrade and the next saying massive upgrade.
I can't properly read the charts even after being on here as a lurker for many years, but even I can see the *potential* this weekend could have for some.
Midlands Regional Discussion Feb 2021 Onward
in Regional
Posted
Remember driving past those drifts at the top of slack hill every day on my way to work in 2013. Epic stuff.