[The Midlands Regional Discussion 13/01/13 --------->]

That was very promising. In a gap in the front now in Chesterfield but the leading edge was snow. Could be lucky today!!

[The Midlands Regional Discussion 13/01/13 --------->]

Snowing now in Chesterfield.

[Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards]

ECM EPS quite poor with lots of perturbations showing the collapse of the high over the UK or westerlies. Also % going for easterly.

I really must question the reliability of the ECM and its EPS of late.

Although GFS has been getting slack, it is the leader at present IMO.

6z will be very interesting.

It was only yesterday when the GFS did a complete U turn on it's output whilst the ECM maintained it's theme.

I'm sure some don't read the verification stats that are posted on a regular basis. UKMO @ no.1, ECM @ No.2 then GFS @ no.3. How is that being the leader at present??

[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?]

too much scatter on these 15th-16th to start congatulating gfs yet

anyone notice the kontrol run today

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel...&mode=1&carte=0

thought not

It's the same story every time on here unfortunately. When all the models are singing from the same hymn sheet for cold you don't see certain posters here at all. As soon as there's a wobble up they pop as if like magic. Spouting the usual "this is what I warned against" rubbish. Then they try and cover their tracks by pretending they're disappointed with the models and are coldies whilst all the time rubbing there hands at the keyboard whilst they reel everybody in.

It's plain tiresome and tbh getting to the stage where it's pointless looking in here. Why can't people post objectively on the output and say what it's showing without the cold or mild bias? Certainly without the "I told you so undertone"!!!

This mornings posts from the moment the GFS started rolling were just laughable. I can't read the models anywhere near as well as most on here so would never dream of posting about them. So many contradictory posts it's a wonder we can learn anything.

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards]

No it was the ECM that first picked up the shortwave off Southern Greenland in late November. The GFS was first to show the Norwegian shortwave in December that scuppered the Easterly.

Just really disappointed for everybody, let's see what Ian F has to say and see if the METO change their outlooks later.

Why would the METO change their outlook based on one set of runs that doesn't show feet of snow outside everybody's front door??

Last night we were set for a real snowy blast, this morning you're disappointed for everybody. Come off it Ian, you know as well as anybody else how volatile the models are currently. Why is this scenario any more likely to verify than the 18z from last night??

[Model Output Discussion 26/08/2012]

Personally I'd add another 10 days to those numbers Gavin, but I'd expect that would attract the same kind of critisism that my call for a lengthy fine, warm spell to start September did. So let's go with the 7-8 for now and look forward to enjoying them, they've been a very long time coming for 70% of the UK.

And so it should. I believe this is the model discussion and the models don't go out the extra 10 days your talking about. I very rarely see you substantiate anything on here...so would you like to show us why you "expect a 2-3 week spell"??