Nigelapplewhit4
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Posts posted by Nigelapplewhit4
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4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
Fantastic ecm 00z!hot throughout!!
Ecm has been showing something inbetween both gfs and ukmo for a few days now!!
The CFS is showing High Pressure dominant for the next two weeks - first week to the west of the UK. second week anchored over the Bay of Biscay/NW France. Third week it drifts over Eastern Europe with trough to the west of Ireland - could this allow southerly airflow? Above average temps for the next six weeks though to varying degress.
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ECMWF charts are as follows:
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15 minutes ago, Howie said:
I really hope the gfs hasn't picked up a new signal
I think it might be on to something in terms of signalling a lot more uncertainty - never a good thing when at just +6-8 day range. Lets see how it pans out. I do rely on the GFS and have for the last 16 years of model watching. Here are the 18Z GEFS ensembles for Cheshire: operational is at the top of the different model runs which surprise me i thought it would be more in the mid range.
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1 minute ago, Steel City Skies said:
Just to further illustrate the isolated nature of the GFS operational this morning... here's the GEM 00z with no flattening of the pattern and a hot outlook for many away from the far north.
Thanks for posting the GEM 00z - my hopes are being restored!.
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1 minute ago, Steel City Skies said:
Get a grip! You're being premature when we've not yet seen the ECM or the GFS ensembles.
That UKMO chart has very warm 850s across the UK, built on several days of settled weather beforehand. It would comfortably translate to temperatures widely in the mid to high 20s, which is high enough to trigger heatwave thresholds if they were to be repeated over 3 or more days consecutively.
This talk of downgrades is ridiculous.
You can't deny the modelling!
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7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
The UKMO isn’t that hot…at least not at the 850 level
The usual downgrades have started.....hopes of a sustained heatwave are disappearing fast according to the modelling. my Confidence of 48 hours ago has gone and the confidence of heat for the UK in the models is ebbing away very quickly too. 30 degrees was forecast for Wrexham on the 13th July - this has now dropped to 21 and 27 on the 15th has dropped down to just 19.
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29 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
the UKMO will tell you another story,thats very good this morning
gfs is a horror story
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6 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
yes the latest gfs is showing things gradually cooling down as the week progresses,as a trough threatens from the northwest..lets hope its an outlier
I'm praying to the heat gods that this is a statistical outlier but we are only at +6 days range so there must be an element of truth in the modelling. It will be really frustrating if the trough is incoming mid week. Looks like the high pressure is much weaker than i was expecting. The latest BBC Weather is still showing high temps for England next week so there is some hope.
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3 hours ago, CreweCold said:
It won't be over, but the days will start to shorten towards and into August and the sun won't feel as stifling when under direct sunlight.
The 4-5 week period after the solstice is peak insolation time in terms of that summer feel.
I dont like the GFS 00z this morning - According to this there wont be a heatwave. have a look at the jetstream firing at the UK on the 12th July, Even worse by midnight on the 13th. Plenty of rain for North West UK and NorthWest England incoming . Is the GFS having a wobble about the heat ? Even the SE is only 23 at mid day on the 13th. As a heat lover im gutted. is it supported by other models.
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15 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
Gfs can do one!!what an absolute beast of an ecm!!!!!ukmo on the same page as well!!!
I normally trust and rely on GFS as the model i analyse ever six hours - perhaps i should look at ECMWF and UK Met office models instead! No heat in the West in this set up Horrible set up at midnight on the 14th July. GFS is having a wobble about mid week heat! A chilly start to Saturday 16th July with only the extreme south of England holding on to 25 degrees with only 15-17 in the North of England and Wales. I agree that GFS can go and do one !
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15 minutes ago, Nigelapplewhit4 said:
Yes - 50 miles away it could be 30-32 while Manchester only maxing at 23! Even leeds is 28-29 and Nottingham 29-30. Very frustrating for those in Chester/Manchester area with overcast skies! I won't go any further and will have my rants on the observations pages next week when the heatwave is a washout for those in the West of England.
The only way it will hit 40 is in my conservatory. Saying that it was 42 there today while only 16 outside. !
2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:Subtle variances in the position of the building high from ECM, UKMO and GFS, UKMO shorter range of the 3 models shows a quicker path to something sunstantively warmer nationwide, but it only goes out to Sunday so we don't know if the high will ridge sufficiently east to draw in a hotter continental flow, GFS much less keen, and maintains heights to the west, ECM continues to do the same, has a go at building them east but then pushes them back west.
We need to keep an eye on energy off the USA seaboard and any shortwave activity to our NW which could scupper the building of heights strongly through the UK at least for early next week. Southern parts do look set for a lengthy warm/very warm spell, note I am not using the word hot just yet, further north and west, much nearer average temps.
Just a polite word for those who keep posting charts showing 40 + degrees, and speculating on such heat, can you please revert to the thread I created 2022 season max temp watch... thank you!
I knew i was going to get told off ! I'm sorry!
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Just now, Scorcher said:
I'm not overly thrilled by tonight's runs from a selfish perspective. We are on a knife-edge in the west of the country in this sort of setup, with the high never quite settling over the top of the UK. No doubt it will be warm from the weekend onwards, but if the dice doesn't fall our way we could be stuck in the low 20s with only occasional sunshine around here.
I hope I'm wrong of course, but I fear areas only 50 miles or so to the east could be scorching while we get 22/23C and lots of cloud.
Yes - 50 miles away it could be 30-32 while Manchester only maxing at 23! Even leeds is 28-29 and Nottingham 29-30. Very frustrating for those in Chester/Manchester area with overcast skies! I won't go any further and will have my rants on the observations pages next week when the heatwave is a washout for those in the West of England.
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39 minutes ago, jon snow said:
Wowzers what an EPIC Ukmo 12z, the best of this summer so far in terms of nationwide summery weather!
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Met office text forecast nothing like what is shown in their models- before we get there we will face overcast skies all week.
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10 minutes ago, Alderc said:
Maybe not on the BBC
Meteogroup who use ECMWF are only predicting 28 in the SE on that date. In my area (Wrexham) its only show 22 not 34 - even London only has a feels like temp of 33 not 42
1 minute ago, Alderc said:Yep 42C, don’t think we’ve seen a 42C, next step a 110f at 43.4C?
It will never happen in my lifetime - maybe in the 2050s or 2060s when i'm dead.
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12 hours ago, sheikhy said:
A move towards gfs from ecm up to 168 hours which is fantastic news!!not the first time in the last few months either!!seems the ecm is goin through a rough period recently!!
Massive downgrade in temperature predictions for the West Midlands/NE Wales. Temps only reaching 20-22 over the next 10 days.
3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:If that should ever come off, it'll be 'up there' with those (invented for the purpose) 1930s temps!
No way will it hit 42 degrees during this heatwave. Its not physcially possible with the synoptic outlook!
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7 hours ago, Singularity said:
A strong MJO event is now sending AAM upwards, likely peaking near neutral for a while in mid-July. It seems that as the MJO heads further east in the Pacific, there will be a short period during which the La Niña standing wave and the MJO event have near equal but opposite influences on AAM, causing to stay near neutral for up to a weak before falling away.
The big AAM climb is what brings the Azores High our way to begin with. One that reaches neutral should correspond to that high extending toward Central Europe with low pressure taking shape somewhere between the Azores and Iberia (the La Niña forcing will likely prevent a full displacement of the Azores High with a broad Atlantic trough replacing it). That’s where the scope for a heatwave (and possibly very high temps on top of that) comes from. The big question is how quickly AAM reaches that point and just how far eastward the high will manage to extend. By the look of some model runs, there are some quite slow outcomes in the mix. ECM 12z being one of those - it’s still setting up a more plume-like situation via the Bay of Biscay as of D10 but has taken quite a winding road to get there).
Once AAM falls, that high should depart either to the east or northwest, but that currently doesn’t look to be until the final week of the month.
Where can i see the AAM forecast for August 2022?
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4 minutes ago, Nigelapplewhit4 said:
Latest GFS shows stronger high pressure than previously predicted on Saturday
Still looks hot for Tuesday 12th July - Thursday July 14th across parts of England and East Wales . I wont post after +10 days as that is FL. Parts of the South could still be 30 degrees at midnight on Friday 15th July. .
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8 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:
Wow and good lord...I can't believe there is nit picking going on over events that may take place in around 7-10 days...one minute it's 40c could be on the way,the next a cloudfest and average! This is what happens when you dissect each and every run with a fine tooth pick...its not healthy trust me! And I think its obvious too all that there are some who are deliberately looking to rile other members on here by playing it all down..it happens very often in Winter and now it's creeping in more and more in Summer!
No complaints from me about tonight's mean..The weather becomes settled and eventually warmer I've said on numerous occasions recently that it could take a while for the NW to improve and that's still the case this evening.
But there is no point in getting stressed up over where the position of the HIGH will end up...it will end up where it wants to end up and not what every single operational run suggests.
Let's enjoy the ride and don't be falling for the bait folks
Latest GFS shows stronger high pressure than previously predicted on Saturday
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Just now, Bradley in Kent said:
Yes, too much scatter for my liking, many scenarios for the wheels to come off for heat lovers, namely lows over NE Canada and Iceland not playing ball (again, for heat lovers).
Personally, in Summer I tend to give more weight to the cooler ensembles, reverse it in Winter with the milder ensembles given our maritime climate.
Fingers crossed we get a decent prolonged warm spell
Very disappointing Met office and ECM for this week - average temperatures even below with lots of cloud. Much cloudier in Wales than i expected today. Disappointed summer lover!
3 minutes ago, jon snow said:I’m really happy with the icon 12z…indeed I would go as far as to say it’s wunderbar! … Ja Ja..
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This isnt going to happen! Trough city according to my modellling
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1 minute ago, Nigelapplewhit4 said:
Saturday is very unsettled according to the latest models here is an example for Saturday and Sunday :
The latest GFS model is predicting it will take over a week for the low pressure to slow fill and be replaced by very weak high pressure ridging into S and SE England. By this stage the Jetstream is weak over the UK
Just now, Nigelapplewhit4 said:The latest GFS model is predicting it will take over a week for the low pressure to slow fill and be replaced by very weak high pressure ridging into S and SE England. By this stage the Jetstream is weak over the UK
According to the FL forecast we may see some ridging by July 5th.
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7 hours ago, richie3846 said:
It's interesting to look further ahead, though there's hardly any talk about the situation that is developing over the weekend. I'm at a loss to why there is so much talk about fantasy models for 12 days ahead, when there is a lot of interest coming up which seems to be void here?
I'm trying to make sense of it through the met office interpretation currently, they seemed to have toned down the impact of the change of air for the south, with temps looking slightly up for Friday to Tuesday, and some pleasant sunshine in-between the showers, temps now only a margin below average.
If any model watchers have anything to add about the weekend/early next week period, that would be amazing.
Saturday is very unsettled according to the latest models here is an example for Saturday and Sunday :
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Very unsettled conditions on the way
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1 hour ago, StormChaseUK said:
GFS wants to keep the low there for, well rest of year really lol
Yes the models are showing that the low has no where to go other than directly over the UK Meanwhile most of europe especially france and spain bask in summer sunshine under high pressure. .
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A warm sunny start in north east wales this morning - fair weather cloud increasing and becoming warm.
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Nigelapplewhit4
Looks like talk of a heatwave was wide of the mark - look at the 06z from the GFS coming out now! It might be a bit warmer than normal for those in the UK looking to live in the SE corner but look at the Northerly coming on Wednesday next week. Icelandic trough making its move south/south east and the Azores high retrogresses well into the Atlantic..
There is a slight attempt for the ridge to push back into the SW approaches. An extremely powerful jet blasts across Northern Europe next week. 
