Anti-Mild
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Posts posted by Anti-Mild
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That UKMO is amazing for the weekend, although it's almost getting beyond the "fun" stage and into "serious" territory.
From a personal perspective, I'm supposed to be taking a trip to Cardiff from the NE on Friday lunchtime but I anticipate a cancellation!!
Edit: Just seen the +120.......
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Just starting to get a few flakes now. Had an absolute belter of a snowfall between 0815 and 0850 this morning, about 2 inches fell! Although the traffic on Marton Road was horrendous until about 1000. Good thing i'm on holiday this week!!
I was disappointed by yesterday but the frontal snow went through quicker than expected.
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The fact that the cold is a little further east on this run is of little concern. What may cause a few flutters is lower heights to the NE, although out to +81 and to be honest there isn't too much difference.
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The +168 is pant-wettingly gorgeous!! Would be a memorable event if it were to come off, however, it is a very fragile evolution and there will be lots of twists and turns before next Thursday.
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Really hope the models are underplaying the SSW influence and you would logically expect the output to improve the further we get from the SSW start date.
It's my understanding that the effects of the SSW are still not being modelled. Dunno if this is still the case - chiono, lorenzo, anyone?
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Nope different to the UKMO.
The 12Z ECM is more inline with the GEM with regards to the LP tracking SE.
Snow for many at +120 except Wales, SW England.
Sorry Dave I should have been more clear - I meant it has leant more towards the UKMO than the GFS. And it ought to lead to a similar +144.
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ECM very similar to UKMO out at +120, will we see a shift in stance from the Met Office as a result, or will there still be too much uncertainty to firm up on their forecast?
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UKMO at +144 is beautiful! Just wish it went to +168!!
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In the short/mid term it's an improvement on the 6z, but it's still not soothing my fears particularly - that SW is hanging around doing a lot of damage to the heights that want to build in the area.
The ECM really is the crucial run (seems like we say that every day).
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If this was to suffer a significant downgrade it would be 10 times worse than the December letdown!
I am still bowled over by the ECM +168! I reckon some places would have their deepest snow in many a year!
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Where is the first place to post new models? Wetter still not got the 86 out
Scroll down to "Modeles"
+120 ECM is okay, although it's starting to look a little messy.
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Probably the last frame of reasonably accurate output at +96 and the ECM has followed suit with the others!
YES!
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Look at the beautiful at 240?!?! Hmmm...FI is FI whatever it shows.
Agreed. Not to get too philosophical but when FI shows the same thing repeatedly does it become less FI?
At +312 we have a bit of the PV dropping into Scandi...now that can't be bad!! (yes I know it's FI, but I can dream)
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Look at that beautiful E'ly at +240! That's 3 consecutive runs with a similar outcome at that range! The SE is going to FREEZE!!!
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Not to count my chickens before they are frozen, but to have these synoptics in the higher resolutions is amazing, and not to labour the point but the effects of the SSW have yet to be felt!!!
This cold spell could lay some excellent groundwork for what could potentially be a very cold end to the month and beyond!
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At +150 the GFS is broadly similar to this morning's run, better heights further north, lower heights in near continent.
FI could be another cracker!!!
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There is the possibility that the 6z is an outlier, however can you imagine the pandemonium in here if 12z continues down similar lines? Then the ECM 12z follows suit?
As SM says, that's 2 runs in succession showing a similar output in the far reaches of FI - it seems that the effects of the SSW are starting to be factored into the outputs.
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At +288 we have -10hPa covering the whole of the British Isles, with the -15 not far off the east coast. Snow lovers nirvana, even if it is FI.
However, the trend for increased heights over Iceland/Greenland in the medium to long term continues.
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I think what many members are forgetting, and I include myself in this (until I thought about it this morning), is that the effects of the SSW which has only just occurred will not be felt until the middle of next week, and that the evolution to colder conditions this weekend are, to some degree, a bit of a bonus before the main event (hopefully).
Up to +120 and it's broadly similar to the 6z, slightly lower heights over Scandi and E. Europe.
Just wanted to stress an important (indeed critical, for this thread) bit of guidance from our medium range folk at Exeter: Do NOT confuse current outlook for a return to the cooler conditions next few days with SSW effect. The latter has NOT yet shown it's hand in any NWP output in any reliable sense. They continue to expect this next key phase - with hugely uncertain outcome - to become a feature appearing from around 10d onwards, and NOT in the more near-term medium range. Current set-up into weekend / early next week etc is not related to SSW in their estimation - just bob-standard winter fare.
Check me out! Exeter, I'm available for employment - heck, i'll even make the tea!!
12z pretty messy after 144, FI still after 108 probably.
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I think what many members are forgetting, and I include myself in this (until I thought about it this morning), is that the effects of the SSW which has only just occurred will not be felt until the middle of next week, and that the evolution to colder conditions this weekend are, to some degree, a bit of a bonus before the main event (hopefully).
Up to +120 and it's broadly similar to the 6z, slightly lower heights over Scandi and E. Europe.
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Much better.
http://modeles.meteo...gfs-0-120.png?6
How the 06Z is handling the SWs is quiet different to the 0Z with these separating with one going N and the other to our S.
P.S just seen loads of Seagulls here!
I actually saw a waxwing this morning!
At +126 there are still pretty good heights above Scandi, hopefully we'll get a bit of a link up with the AH. It's definitely a colder run in the medium term.
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There seems to be a slight westward correction again on this run, better heights between Norway and Iceland at +108, and it just looks "cleaner".
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I still do not get why the GFS retains such low heights over Greenland with the strat warming forecast as it stands.
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As I said in a post a couple of days ago, the state of the atmosphere is unusual to say the least, particularly wrt the computer age. As such, I expect the models to struggle hugely most of the winter. It may be that we will end up with a mild Christmas, but with FI being no further than +120, and given that we have had some correction south and west, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see further adjustments in that direction. It wouldn't take a huge adjustment to bring in colder air by the end of the week.
Winter Model Discussion 18Z 16/1/13 onwards.
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Is there anybody there?
UKMO out to +72 and it's looking peachy. Lots of snow - looks like we may almost have an all-white satellite image again!
GFS out to +78 and it's basically identical to the 6z.