Anti-Mild
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Posts posted by Anti-Mild
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I believe that because of the strat profile and the overall "smashed-apartness" of the PV that FI is going to be very close for much of the winter, possibly as close as +96. If nothing else the fact that the PV is situated over Siberia will cause the models problems simply because there is very little precedent in the computer model age for this situation.
Consider the failed easterly - it looked rock solid, then in the space of 6-8 GFS runs it was gone. Also, 2 or 3 days ago the models had us in zonal conditions for the foreseeable, now there are signs of something cold in little over a week. It also occurs to me that in the current atmospheric state that even watching the ensembles for trends may not be that accurate.
My advice, enjoy watching the models, enjoy the rollercoaster, but take everything beyond +120 with a large pinch of salt. Better to keep watch on the atmospheric drivers, possible SSW's, and hope for that bit of luck that allows us to take advantage.
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06z up to +48, not much differences up to this point as expected. Mind you, it is the 06z so this is merely the appetiser before the 12z main course.
Up to +54 now, and the SW looks less, well, SW'ey!
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Hear hear, we'll be hearing from Bill Farkin and his waxwings next!Know what you mean.........I thought for a minute reading this thread, I had gone back in time and this was Snowatch.
As always the 12z GFS way to eager to revert to zonality, the ECM will ease some worried souls when it comes out.
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Now that the UKMO is coming into line, you can almost guarantee that ECM will have a wobble, purely because the big 3 are in cahoots with Prozac!
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Well I'm completely speechless. If the 00z comes off we're in for the deep freeze. What a change from yesterday's 06z. I really hope today's 06z isn't a passion killer, but if it is, which do we believe?
I love the evolution of the Scandi high to a GH high followed by the arctic plunge in far FI. My only concern is that the ensembles suggest it's a bit of a cold outlier, not an extreme oulier just a coldish one.
Not to say that it is never correct, but I would always trust the 0z over the 06z. Of course if it shows the same evolution then that's obviously another good sign.
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I remember last year that October was not looking positive for the Winter 2011/12. A lot of the more respected forecasters on here tried to put a positive spin on things but there was always that undercurrent of pessimism.
This year there it feels like the polar (haha!) opposite, with a lot of favourable signals, but with the likes of GP and SM trying to keep people's feet on the ground.
As a confirmed snow ramper I am trying very hard not to get too excited, and I would urge heavy doses of caution until we have a raging beasterly at +6, but the ever-optimistic side of me is preparing for an absolute belter!!
78/79 anybody?
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I was there, well in Cavallino, and I just missed it!! I was absolutely gutted!! If I had been 2 minutes earlier on my morning trip to the supermarket I would have seen it instead of just getting soaked! I talked to someone who had seen it and he said it had drifted across a field about half a mile away!
Incidentally, I was also their for the earthquake, and despite it being about 80 miles away I definitely felt the shake!
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One big difference is the positioning of the block to the NE.
It's like water torture watching the Russian High try to inch closer! At this rate it'll get here sometime in May (which would be fine by me!)
As has been the case for the past 2 weeks, until the models get a handle on the impacts of the strat warming and the dispersal of the PV, anything past +120 is to be ignored - unless it shows something cold!
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I have been a member of this forum for 8 years now and i can scarcely recall a time that has been as up and down as the last few days.
IMHO look for further height rises to our NW - a delayed reaction to strat warming. From there, who knows?
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Was browsing around and came across this :
Now I know it's Ireland-centric but it does mention the UK as a whole. Hopecasting? Perhaps, because as everyone knows, LRF's are very difficult to get right, however further investigation into James Madden indicates a fairly good success rate:
http://www.exactaweather.com/The_Team_-_Contact_Us.html
As ever, time will tell.
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About 4 years ago I posted a poll asking whether it was possible to get a sub zero CET month in this country. If I remember correctly 30% suggested it could happen again, including myself, although if they were like me they didn't truly believe it - it was more like hope!
Who would have thought that it would happen so emphatically with the second coldest December ever and the 23rd coldest month since records began!
Quite amazing really, especially coming on the back of a very cold winter last year, and, let's not forget, that now makes 7 consecutive below average winter months.
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Has there been an updated prediction from NASA wrt SC24? The most recent one I can find is for July.
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Hey all, loooong time since I posted in here - i'm more of a winter chap!
I've been reading this thread and as far as I am concerned anything we get this winter will be a bonus as I feel that my "cold weather quota" got exhausted last winter!
Before the winter began, for the first time ever I was feeling very defeatist, but the season was outstanding! I had snow laying somewhere in my back garden from December 16th right through to February 18th, had a low temperature of -10.8c, and at it's deepest had level snow of 14 inches! Certainly the best winter I have experienced since I was a nipper!!
I've no doubt that there will be cold and snowy events this time round, but I feel it will be a long time before 2009/10 is bettered, but I'm okay with that because, having said all that, I do think that the mild winters of the early 00's will be replaced by 1980's type winters, mostly due to natural climate variations, but also thanks to the forthcoming Dalton-type minimum (something I have banged on about for years to anyone who'll listen!!).
AM
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Perhaps time will tell that Jan/Feb was the solar maximum!!Yes we did have a period in January/February where it looked like cycle24 was ramping up. Currently back to levels pre October 2009, whether this is a blip & activity will resume, or Jan/Feb was a blip, time will tell.
http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif
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And the prize for the most flagrant shoehorning of the potential effects of the carbon footprint on the climate goes to:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/8538033.stm
Seriously, I'm at a loss for words!
No wait, I remember something I wanted to poke extra fun at! I let out a chuckle upon reading Dr Pershing's description of whales as the "forests of the sea"!!! :lol:
I have no idea what Dr Pershing looks like, but if he doesn't have long hair and wear beads and a kaftan I'll be devastated!!
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4.3c please.
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None on my house at all but on the walk to school with the kids this morning we passed a house that had icicles along the entire length of the eaves - with 2 or 3 at more than 12 inches long!! If I remember I'll take my camera and take a picture when I go back up this afternoon.
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There's 16cm in my back garden, but in the car park at work which is only 8 miles away from me there is 21cm. And yes, I am actually making it in to work!!
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Hi all, it's been a while since I posted in here - very busy with work and all that = but I was thinking about the current cold spell of weather and aside from the obvious pleasing factor, it makes me a little sad.
I hear you ask "why, A-M?", and I will answer.
Given that the cold has lasted since the 16th of December in these parts, with snow on the ground since the 17th, and the highest temp I have recorded since the start has been 4.2c, and the projections of the continuation taking us well into the New Year with snow and possible record breaking temps; I am sad because I am of the opinion that it will be many years before this is bettered.
Some of the charts we have experienced, and may yet experience, are charts we haven't seen in over 20 years. We have been very lucky in terms of many if the factors required to give us a cold shot and the chances of it happening again are slim.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not being all negative and moaning about the weather, it's just that like many others on here, I have been watching the models online for the last 6 years, hoping that the ideal winter synoptics would happen one of these years. And now it has happened. I guess it's like the lottery. Let's say you have the same numbers week after week, then one week you get 5 and the bonus and win £100,000. Do you still keep playing, hoping for the jackpot, or do you consider yourself extremely fortunate and stop playing?
I will keep watching the models, I mean we still have the majority of this winter remaining, but even if the rest of the winter is mild and the next 20 winters are nothing special, at least I can look back on December 09/January 10 and say "I remember that cold spell - best in XX years!"
Here endeth the introspection!!
Happy New Year everyone.
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The last time we had 5 consecutive below average winter months was December 1990 through to January 1992. Will it happen again following January 2010? I think so. As such, I'm going for:
3.4c
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It isnt apart from the odd snowflake in the air
It's coming down quite a bit here. Just started but if it keeps up at this intensity there'll be about 5cm down before the band passes over.
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i'm sorry but de ja vu much?
ive been away from the models for about a week now, mainly to enjoy the weather we have at the minute and not get back into the inevitable reality of mild after the cold spell, but now its showing cold again! is this a sign of the winter to come? wintry re-load after wintry re-load only for the atlantic to be blocked of as a head cold can be blocked of my paracetemol hmm, could europe be on anti-mild antibiotics this winter
looks like we could be in for another cold spell by new year folks! and i wouldnt be so cautious this time as the current spell came out with flying colours for most areas! 12Z is a great run, 06Z ensembles werent so enthusiastic but de ja vu again they came on board last time eventually right?
Hey, that's a trademark you know!!
Excellent 12z from GFS, and as others have said, because of our current spell of cold weather I think that confidence regarding the evolution out beyond +192 is higher - if it can be done once it can be done again.
WRT the current spell, from a personal POV I would say that it reminds me most strongly of November 1993. Not because of the synoptics but because of the amount of snow, the length of time it has hung about, and the depth of cold.
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Unfortunately my forecast thread got locked due to bickering so I'm just starting a new one to say that my forecast has obviously gone very wrong and is effectively bust.
Even if Jan and Feb turn out as I predicted (which I don't think they will) then it would be for the wrong reasons.
Hats off to you Mr Brown!!
Because of your 'even larger teapot' stance you do get a lot of abuse on this forum, and although I feel that sometimes you do yourself no favours, nearly all of the abuse is totally unwarranted.
It takes courage to issue a detailed winter forecast, particularly if you are as well known as you are, and you are daring to forecast a mild winter.
It takes a great deal more courage to admit that you are wrong, especially as there will be a large faction hoping that you fall on your face.
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Decent enough run
Understatement of the year there!!
The charts at 192 onwards are stunning - enough to bring a tear to the eye of the perpetually disappointed snow lover!!
My own confidence is growing with regard to this coming cold freezing spell, but I will be a lot happier if UKMO gets back on board later.
Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -12z 14/12/12
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Further to my post, I believe that because the current conditions are unprecedented in the christmas pudding, and the models are unable to "pattern match", they are reverting to what they know is normal for this time of year - a rampaging PFJ. I'm not saying that it wont happen, just that there doesn't seem to be (to my untrained eye) any meteorological basis for this.
In my opinion the weather charts look more like charts from the mid-80's, where a huge HP would mooch around N.W. Europe and occasionally edge West, giving us a blast of true cold, and I wouldn't be surprised if this happens in 12/13.