Seasonality
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Posts posted by Seasonality
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3 minutes ago, Timmytour said:
Reminds me a little of the set up in October 1978....a similar winter to follow would be most pleasing
Very cheeky of you! I see the old 'make a comparison to a cold winter of old' trick is still in vogue.
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3 hours ago, Lettucing Gutted said:
In effect oceans have a thermal memory. This is due to the great heat capacity of oceans compared to continental surfaces. In terms of the natural annual solar and heat cycle, oceans have a lag time of almost 3 months to respond to the changes in sign of solar radiation across both of the solstices. Anomalies in SST also persist for lengthy periods due to the great heat capacity of oceans. Even on longer time scales of centuries and even millennia oceans can take a very long time to respond to major long term climate changes.
Well, yes, I'm aware of the thermal dynamics of the oceans. But to suggest they somehow 'remember' a previous state was inaccurate.
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1 hour ago, Lettucing Gutted said:
Whilst the association might seem random and arbitrary, I believe the "Very Mild September=Mild Winter Theory" is due to the "memory" of the associated September SST anomaly patterns in the North Atlantic which can determine the winter NAO pattern. This is the same idea behind use of the North Atlantic SSTs in May to predict the winter NAO pattern. September is also the month when North Atlantic and other northern oceans are often at their warmest temperatures for the year.
It is surprising though how there is apparently never any equivalent theory used for predicting the summer NAO pattern by using the North Atlantic SSTs from November or/and even March which is when North Atlantic and other northern oceans are often at their coldest temperatures for the year.
I'm not sure oceans have memories. An exception being in the excellent sci fi novel Solaris by Stanisław Lem
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22 hours ago, Paul_1978 said:
Whatever happens, I'm not looking forward to the old "winter clichés" rolling out, eg:
- "Close but no cigar"
- "...at this juncture..."
- "It's a long way back to cold from there".
- "It's Christmas, there's missing balloon data".
- "It looks like the Atlantic is coming back in" (accompanied by a T+384 chart). [Read the same for people being overly confident with a cold chart at T+384]
- "Will it snow in Carlisle?"
- "Let's wait for the ensembles"
- "Look at this from the NAVGEM"
Ha ha! Mods, can all of these phrases and the other ones that other posters have mentioned be put in the swear filter? Some amusing replacements could be made and it would teach people to be a little more thoughtful in the way they post.
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The weather continues cool for the time of year in Warsaw. Driving out of town this past weekend I also had the pleasure of fog in the countryside and noticed that the River Vistula is rising nicely after being topped up by the autumn rains. There was even a grass frost on Friday morning when the sky cleared. Classic autumn weather.
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I had a reminder at work today how many people view the weather. Someone said they remembered last winter being really cold in the UK. I had to stifle a laugh. Also seeing the way how people are saying nice seasonal autumn weather is 'freezing cold.' It always makes me smile when I see people at this time of year dressed up like Sir Ranulph Fiennes making an attempt on a fastest antarctic crossing just because the temperature has nudged down a little.
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9 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:
Well Iapennell is going for a rather unspectacular Winter with his preliminary forecast. No surprise there really. Not that I'm saying he'll be wrong but he's certainly not expecting the early cold some long range forecasts are hinting. I'm not too sure how to take his forecasts as yet as he does seem to be a (it's going to be mild all the time) type of forecaster. Though of course he does mention possible short lived cold snaps, particularly for Scotland, but no beast from the east type scenarios. Plus he didn't join the forum until post Winter 2012/13 so it's hard to know whether his Winter forecasts have been close to correct by chance or whether he's that good he would indeed call a cold Winter if it's going to happen or he's some latest Ian Brown type character (I don't want this to come across as accusatory or offensive by the way). Whatever's the case there's no doubt he's meteorologically literate. I guess we'll see though.
Mr Pennell clearly puts much thought and effort into his forecasts. I especially like his unusual geo-engineering ideas to cool down the earth, they feel right out of a Jules Verne novel. He clearly likes cold but I feel maybe he is a pessimist and assumes mild. We all have our pre-conceptions and confirmation bias and what not and I think that his forecasts may follow the track of his assumptions. No offence to Mr Pennell, there are many who assume arctic cold and do the same thing. Hats off to him for his contribution to the forum, I always find him fascinating and I couldn't produce anything like he does. One of the most difficult factors in forecasting, and one that is frequently overlooked, is the ability to view all the data available with complete objectivity. I hope he keeps posting.
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A dusting even down to lower levels in the Polish Tatras. Lovely!
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23 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:
@Seasonality
I think Accuweather use the GFS
Two weather have a similar feature for
150 days
a load of tosh really fun to look at but
for me I don't look at more than five
days advance (maybe three in winter)
Welcome to the forum by the way.
you seem very knowledgeable look
forward to reading your posts on the
MOD thread in the coming months.
C.S
I wouldn't call myself very knowledgeable, I'm nowhere near the levels of knowledge of the many seasoned experts here, just an interested amateur. Interesting charts appearing in the models now. Pop on over to the mod thread and you can see some optimism, even if they're only FI charts for now and it is only the first week of October. We can only hope!
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12 hours ago, Mucka said:
ECM is broken, much of central/eastern Europe in the freezer.
It'll be chilly in Warsaw if that comes off! Nothing exceptional but hopefully for cold fans in the uk it signals a building cold pool in central and eastern Europe to tap into. Lovely charts.
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14 hours ago, markyo said:
Find that attitude a bit pompous,netweather is a brilliant forum,,many various threads and sub forums to engage on. Folk aren't illiterate as you state,they enjoy the banter and yes sometimes it goes over the top,but everybody is different with how the both view's and comment on the weather. That is why it is called the Netweather Community,ever community has it's variation in opinions and ways of voicing them. Sorry wheat and the chaff statement is wrong in my opinion,ever bodies opinion counts,regardless of how they voice it. But that's just my opinion. Oh and by the way,welcome to the Community.!
Woah there! Pompous? I think you and Stewfox have me all wrong. I get excited at extreme weather as much as the next man. I'm referring to the thankfully few posters who go out of their way to wind up and anger other people and create a negative atmosphere. There is no denying you get some of that every year. In every community you get people who are just wrong and deliberately disruptive, that is a fact of life. I happily read the contributions of probably 99% of the members here, it is only a tiny minority who cause any issues. Chill everyone! I meant no offence. Its too early in the season to get so worked up
But back on topic, hopefully this cool weather bodes well for the season ahead. Also a question, I see Accuweather has a 90 days ahead function, can anyone tell me which model creates this forecast? Or do they have their own data? It doesn't seem to be showing anything exceptional for the UK coming up. Pretty average really.
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1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:
I'm hoping for some semblance of sanity on this forum during the winter months..however as usual no doubt it will shortly descend into the usual chaos of dummy spitting, arm waving, finger pointing and general crying/bellyaching about everything and everyone
I've read the model thread in the past before taking the plunge and creating an account here. The worst posts tended to be illiterate as well as lacking in meteorological knowledge. It seems to be a playground for trolls.
That said, this is a brilliant forum and there are very knowledgable posters here from whom we can learn a lot. The ignore user function is handy so you can sort the wheat from the chaff. There are so many positives to netweather they outweigh the negative of the model forum silliness in winter IMHO.
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It could be the negative ions generated. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_air_ionization_therapy
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Good webcams to view the Polish high Tatras can be found at http://www.zol.pl This picture taken from a live feed at the time of this post shows snowfall over Kasprowy Wierch with other cams showing snowfall even to lower levels. For those not familiar with these mountains they are part of the Carpathian range and run along the Polish Slovak border.
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1 hour ago, MP-R said:
I was in Warsaw for four days at the end of last December and was amazed how it went from 14C max on the 26th to -2C max on the 30th. Quite an evident cold front moved through on the 28th from memory with rain turning to snow, then the following day there was a sugar coating of snow on the ground (lovely to walk around Lazienki Park) in and deep blue skies with no wind. Lovely!
Łazienki is particularly beautiful. Last December in Poland was as freakishly warm as it was in the UK until the end of the month. That is the difference with a continental climate, the transition to cold tends to be more stark and intense. Warsaw is particularly spectacular when the River Vistula freezes over, fingers crossed for this year.
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On 02/10/2016 at 11:08, jules216 said:
exceptional cool down in Tatra Mountains(Slovakia)next week, snow line below 1000m,some areas will get well over a foot of snow as it stays cold Throughout at least Sunday, these synoptics in October bring great accumulations, I guess over 1300m, see attached graph from Slovak Met office for location Zdiar which is near Polish border at 1000m alt. Courtesy of latest ECMWF, expect few robust white pixels appearing on the map
Similar story in the Polish Tatras. I posted in another thread that even urban lowland Poland is seeing an impressive cool down this week. Warsaw is going from a min of 10C and max of 23C yesterday to min 1C and max 8C this coming Sunday. Kasprowy Wierch on the Polish side of the High Tatras at 1987m ASL will receive a good dumping this week and will have minus double digits temperatures by next Monday. At this time in the season the chances are that those pixels along the Polish Slovak border will stick.
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It was an unseasonable maximum of 23C in Warsaw yesterday. This felt even more odd in that the autumn foliage is well in evidence already. The cool down for later this week will be even more pronounced now with Sunday forecast to have a minimum of 1C to a maximum of 8C. From unseasonable warmth to unseasonable cold in the space of seven days. Hopefully the start of a good cold pool for UK weather fans to tap into.
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Slightly off topic but lots of comments about people getting hot too easily. I am not pointing any fingers but excessive alcohol consumption tends to increase sweating, which tends to make you feel more uncomfortable and perceive it to be hotter than it really is. In some cases the answer could be as simple as cutting back on the booze.
Back firmly on topic and yes, the heating has come on briefly first thing in the morning to take the edge off.
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Much of Poland is going to experience very warm weather for this time of year over the next few days. Temperatures remained in the mid to high twenties in Warsaw until the middle of the month with at least two days of 30C then cooled down to single digit minima and maxima in the teens by the 18th. Summer is having a last hurrah though with maximums of 23 on Friday and Saturday. No mean feat for this time of year. However, fast forward one week and there will be a predicted maximum of 12 and minimum of 5 in the city. The rapid variation is certainly interesting.
Weather in Poland
in Weather Around The World
Posted
Very much so. The coldest of course being Lublin in the east.