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ghoneym

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    Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by ghoneym
    spelling

    28 minutes ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

    No I think it's the one to the west of the outer Hebrides see the kink in the isobars if it flows south could develope into a small low (not the polar kind) could be mixed rain/sleet/snow due to warm sectors etc

    The tweeter mentions Exeter, and Ian Ferguson mentions the centre of the low which is almost over Exeter, I think he is talking about the low down there rather than the "wave" West of the Hebrides

    .Screen Shot 2017-01-09 at 21.41.17.png

    Screen Shot 2017-01-09 at 21.41.02.png 

    Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Since everyone is getting the crayons out tonight thought I'd better join in :D Red line roughly what tonights ECM is showing for the same timescale (+144) I think the energy from the high pressure in the atlantic moving N/E will amplify the Jet and turbo boost the incoming Low we see on the ECM +192 chart. Wet and Very windy for Scotland bringing white stuff in Blizzard formation to Higher ground.Screen Shot 2017-01-03 at 19.37.26.png

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    Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by ghoneym
    wrong time frame

    13 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

    The Christmas day storm still very evident on the 18z. It wouldn't take much of a shift to make it a more widespread and dangerous system.

    @ Fergie do the met think this could be a major event or are you guys confident it will mainly affect far North? 

    The 18Z has the depression tearing through central Scotland with 80 MPH + gusts, if this verifies then I would expect localised power cuts, travel disruption and camp stove dinners for a large population of Scotland, really not trying to be sensationalist but this Christmas day storm does not appear to be shifting. 

    06Z storm.png

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    Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The GFS has been fairly consistant at predicting the low pressure fronts, take storm Angus for example, was well predicted by GFS before ECM UKMO etc. The backround signals for the 2 storms have been there for a few days now well in to FI but have maintained there consistency especially on the more prominent runs 00Z & 12Z. Looking at the 06Z vs the 12Z the difference is the angle of the jetstream influenced by the downstream high pressure  over the southern Mediterranean.

    If that pressure builds further from now until the big day, then the jetstream will hopefully push further north and the storm will miss mainland UK maybe battering Shetland / Orkney furthesmost North Scotland, However if the Jet digs south then I firmly believe based on the recent runs that We are in for a battering.

    Screen Shot 2016-12-18 at 17.18.36.png Screen Shot 2016-12-18 at 17.17.46.png 06Z "flat" Jetsteam allowing storm to whizz on through, potential damaging winds but over with fairly quick.

     

    Screen Shot 2016-12-18 at 17.17.59.pngScreen Shot 2016-12-18 at 17.18.45.png 12Z shows the Jetstream digging further south east into northern france as there is less pressure in the southern Mediterranean allowing the storm to slow in its movement to a downstream position.

    For me Snow, precipitation, Blizzards are best left until 2/3 days out. Better Idea then.

    P.S first post of any Meaning in terms of forecasts so be gentle please :aggressive:

    • Like 18
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