Chris Lea-Alex

Convective Weather have added a moderate zone starting at Taunton southwestwards

Personally, I don't think they will. Probably already at anvil crawler stage

Interesting radar shape alert for Newark

I take it these are the elevated showers Convective Weather referred to that might electrify this morning? "elevated convection (showers and perhaps a weak thunderstorm) may be ongoing over the NW Midlands / N Wales on Tuesday morning" Might be a little bit of hail in one of those showers, can't tell from the resolution really...

Going by the rough trend of the GFS, the activity is expected to die down exactly when my 4-day weekend starts. Then it starts up again on the 25-26 June only to die down again before my next 2 days off.

Don't be greedy! I would've loved to have been in Wrexham yesterday

I think they've just copied the UK risk from Convective Weather by the looks of it. The fact this country got a mention means lightning for sure. And if any Estofexians are reading I'm not being entirely serious

USA, Europe Europe, Asia, Australasia: "Hey buddy, I remember seeing that storm too." UK: "I remember seeing that IC"

It looks like it's left London from what I can see on the radar. If there's more in store then that's music to my ears @Hirudine I was excited to see those pictures because I thought there was a storm in Croydon and hence could reach it! Then I saw your location...

This one is wallington, Sutton. Feels benign

Below is what is going on in the back garden - or the sky above it to be precise. Seems alright for heating but feels fresh and breezy with forecasted highs of 20°. The perfect summer day in fact! Wake me up in July

I guess we'll be competing against that cacodemon for energy or something.

@Oliver Wyndham-lewis We've been getting our hopes up for nothing for a couple of months now, why quit now?! Dare I say that 17th June is not that far away? Or am I smelling of desperation?

I invite everybody in here today, albeit 2 metres apart where possible. Let's not beat about the bush, it's been a terrible, terrible year so far. Yes, there have been a few moments for example 12th April, 23rd May, and 6th June, but no 'event' as such. The uneroded keenness cap is causing every low-end slight to generate about 10 pages of convective chat! (some which is mine haha). All I can say is this year, should you get a chance to pursue an 'event', do take it up and be prepared to act quickly as it might be the only one. I'm sure though that come September / October we'll be guaranteed some squally / sporadically-electrified photogenic stuff so it's not the end of the world.

I hope you've got access to a charger...

@Josh Rubio Well there's always this in the South of France for backup:

No idea unfortunately. I shall be opening my bedroom window for the natural alarm clock that's for sure

Tomorrow sounds like a very complicated situation. In my uninformed opinion, what is likely is a wet mess. What is guaranteed is for the North Sea to light up like a Christmas tree with lots of lights on it.

I was at work today so I kinda feel I should stay in here. Granted, I technically work outside and did see some bolts in the corner of my eye but it's not the same

Haha, yes. It's a grand for the full bitmap, £500 for a jpeg. Ironically I did see similar shaped bolt about 15 minutes later from South Norwood Hill whilst driving - one of the longest CGs I've ever seen

Well... Pass me a towel so I can wipe the smug grin off my face! received_1092322811153331.mp4

That must be the Mississippi MCS I take it

Shall we start talking about Saturday? I'm trusting what GFS is saying this close in. Hardly an event but, going on 2020 standards, will suffice

"lightning is likely to be at a premium" - Dan "Diurnal Disappointment" - The Sun "HP Supercell to batter Brits" - The Express Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 04 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Fri 05 Jun 2020 ISSUED 20:04 UTC Wed 03 Jun 2020 ISSUED BY: Dan Negatively-tilted upper trough over the North Sea will continue to strengthen through the forecast period, with mid/upper levels continuing to cool. This places the British Isles on the rear side of the trough for Thursday, with a strong northwesterly flow aloft. Early showery rain will clear East Anglia and SE England, although some will persist over western Ireland. There may be quite a bit of cloud around at times, but some sunny spells are likely and any low-level cloud will be subject to convective overturning courtesy of the strong June sunshine. Diurnal heating will yield 100-400 J/kg CAPE, with numerous showers likely to develop, becoming more widespread by the afternoon hours. Convective depth will be rather restricted for most of the day, generally below 600mb (ELTs -10C), but may increase a little towards evening. Showers will be particularly focussed along a pronounced convergence zone which is likely to develop from W / SW Scotland down across N England towards East Anglia. Some complications exist, as showers could grow upscale into an area of showery rain potentially as a small surface low develops. The steering flow will be NNW-SSE initially, but as the winds aloft gradually back through the afternoon then the motion of showers may eventually turn more NW-SE. Speed shear will gradually increase through the day, perhaps reaching 20-30kts through the cloud-bearing layer by evening. Overall any lightning is likely to be at a premium, generally isolated and most areas will remain void of such activity on Thursday. Overnight, the focus for the heaviest showers will shift to western and northwestern Britain. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-06-04

I wouldn't trust the auto generated weather from the apps. You'll get to the time it says lightning and it suddenly change to drizzle or something