[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

3 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

Low pressure near s Greenland is scuppering the GH I have a feeling this may be a close but no cigar.....UK high in FI anyone?

Or a nice northerly inbound 

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Low pressure near s Greenland is scuppering the GH I have a feeling this may be a close but no cigar.....UK high in FI anyone?

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Epic fl inbound on 18z GFS 

 

PV over Scandinavia primed to dig south introducing frigid air surely

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

The retrogression signal looking on again though, that's a pretty strong signal amongst the ensembles, admittedly a good deal end up West based -nao so not prolific wrt uppers but the Greenland height rise signal looking pretty solid.

Agreed pretty similar to the ECM just at different time frames.....a new trend?

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

18z down plays the potential eastern snow event Friday slightly with lighter and patcher precipitation, still time for upgrades/downgrades though

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Just now, Luke Attwood said:

So why we looking at Netherlands, doesn't mean much for the UK does it?

It does if there is an incoming easterly as they will get it first but are close enough for it to be an interest to us.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

2 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

Sorry what is this showing ali?

2m temps on the decline and with subzero temps for Holland, the dotted red line is the mean, temps are at the side and dates along the bottom

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Rain to snow in the south and yes a lot further north than the 12z

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

3 minutes ago, mhielte said:

Looking solid so far then...

At 24hrs it should be.....patience grasshopper patience 

the bdifferences at 72 hrs between the models is where I am interested.....we want more amplification from the GFS this time round 

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Also remembering that uppers are not everything, you can have them at -1/-2 if the dew points are at freezing or below and with a continental feed this is more than likely so any precipitation should fall as snow especially away directly from the coast. Looking at the ECM ens the op is in the colder catergory but the mean is more than cold enough for snow. Although the colder the uppers the better as the North Sea convective machine ramps up especially with SST's at around 9/10 degrees. All in all things are looking good tonight and hope to see another shift in the 18z GFS......fingers crossed.