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Northwest NI

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    General Volcanic Activity Thread!

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    New satellite imagery clearly shows magma movement beneath the surface between Fagradalsfjall and Keilir on the Reykjanes peninsula, to the northeast of the site of last year’s volcanic eruption.

    The satellite data were analysed by scientists today, with the images showing that the magma intrusion has caused significant deformation (up to 16 centimetres) of the crust in recent days to the west of Kleifarvatn lake, but it is not considered likely that magma will break through the surface there. It is far more likely that an eruption will occur at the site of smaller recent earthquakes—as was the case in early 2021.

    The likelihood that a volcanic eruption will begin on the Reykjanes peninsula in the coming days or weeks has now increased yet again and is considered highly likely by earth scientists.

    According to the Icelandic Met Office, distortion modelling indicates that the magma intrusion under Fagradalsfjall runs very shallow, at just a kilometre below the surface. The magma accumulation is believed to be taking place roughly twice as quickly as before the eruption last year.

    Geophysicist Freysteinn Sigmundsson says the more vigorous magma accumulation this year, currently equivalent to ten Elliðaá rivers, could mean an eruption somewhat bigger than in 2021. Lava would likely flow north and could potentially reach the main Reykjanesbraut road, he says, adding, though, that it is still impossible to say with certainty that an eruption will occur.

    In different earth sciences news, Grímsvötn has also been shaking today. Its largest quake was on Magnitude 3.7, and there have been around a dozen others along with it.

    Grímsvötn is Iceland’s most active volcano, but seismic activity in the ice-covered southeast Iceland volcano is entirely unconnected to the volcanic system on the Reykjanes peninsula.

    In light of the ongoing seismic news, as well as this year’s cold and unsettled summer weather, the ICE-SAR national search & rescue organisation has issued an appeal for travellers to register their travel plans on SafeTravel.is before setting off into the wilds, as life-threatening conditions can strike with little warning. There are too many foreign tourists landing in difficulties this year due to poor preparation and insufficient equipment, the organisation’s head told RÚV. The Safe Travel website has lots of helpful information to help keeps travellers safe.

    General Volcanic Activity Thread!

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, The PIT said:

    They can't make up the mind how big it was been down to 4.8 back up to 5.4. The camera didn't have shake other cams not so much.

    An earthquake of M4.7 shook the Reykjanes peninsula (and was clearly felt in the capital area) at 5.48 pm at only 1.1 km depth! 😳

    Edit* after verification the earthquake turned out to be M5.4 at 1.9 km depth! That’s pretty shallow and pretty strong! 

    Data: https://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/reykjanespeninsula/#view=table

    • Thanks 1

    Summer 2022 Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    27 minutes ago, ThunderAthlete said:

    I think your misunderstanding what I said, or somehow I'm not getting it across very well, so my humble apologies... I am  autistic so I find it hard to get things across... and never for one second have I tried to insinuate anybody is wrong...nor did I actually say that anyway, but, terribly sorry if it came across like that. 

    I was only, well, trying to say, that I tend not to see a lot of posts showing the Jetstream and that I find it useful to get an idea of the bigger picture - not in isolation but alongside other charts.  That really was it. I'm very sorry I apparently got all this across so wrong that people think I am in someway being critical or arrogant. Perhaps it's for the best I put away my cap and simply stop posting and log off. I'm sure everyone will be much happier for it. 

    You should not stop posting. There’s loads of learning to be done by everyone on this page. People see things in different ways without either being necessarily wrong. 

    • Like 5

    Summer 2022 Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    25 minutes ago, ThunderAthlete said:

    Chilly day here today at a paltry 15°C. Brrrr! 

    The model charts are showing the JetStream diving south around the UK/France over the next couple of weeks which if true will see a cool, wet start to August for the most part. I notice not a lot of people in the model thread seem to pay attention to the jetstream, rather cherry picking fantasyland charts of high pressure trying to ridge over the UK which inevitably doesn't happen.

    Jet stream charts are also a prediction no?

    • Like 2

    Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2021/22

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    On 26/03/2022 at 10:46, Midlands Ice Age said:

    Jo...

    Thanks for keeping us (me?) updated... It is nice to see a 'team' leader update us.

    The weather had certainly changed in the early to mid March period. and at both poles.

     

    Could I make a couple of general points about this forum.? 

    As mentioned above we have historically had 2 forums on the Arctic Sea ice  (one a the CC section) and the one here about the Northern Hemisphere snow and Ice growth.

    Whether it was related to the better NH refreeze or no,  there was only recorded a handful of posts in the CC section forum, but something like 3 -500 posts in this thread.

    I have posted very regularly during the refreeze season whether the ice has melted, as well as when it has expanded.

    I have always tried to keep impartial in my reporting, as I think that most people just want to access a quick summary of what is happening. Most people on here are interested in the development of the NH winter and the snow's creep southwards and westwards 

    In other years we have set up a NH Ice melt thread. Is it worth doing it again? My own thoughts are that it is probably not worth the bother, as it may well not get the coverage required. If it gets really extreme/pronounced then I have no doubt that the CC's will have their say, over on the CC thread..

    So I guess I am in favor of keeping things as they are, and then creating a new 2023 winter season thread at the appropriate time. 

    Also,,,

    Thanks for your item above..

     I actually went to the DMI Arctic temperature graph to check and yes there certainly was an outbreak of milder air over the Arctic. The last week however has seen a return to  more normal temperatures.

    image.thumb.png.8f676f3bc30660150e56af8251bc3e5e.png

    As you suggest more cloud has reduced the ability to determine the sea ice extent changes, but the latest charts suggest that it seems to be a fairly normal 'melt' so far.

    image.thumb.png.10e0a4816430020d776a60a91ac0293b.png

    Looks as if we will soon be seeing some of the cold reaching our shores...   will that mean another spike in temps up there?

    As you may well appreciate I do not post much in the 'summer' on here, as I prefer my out-door life normally.

    However my recent bad skirmishes with Covid (both the wife and I) has left me with time on my hands, so I have got drawn back in, until I test negative again.  

    Hopefully my NHS fast track treatment for Covid will now enable to get out and about again soon.

    MIA

    All the best MIA to you and your wife. Take care.

     

    I am also in favour of keeping things as they are as regards the Sea Ice freeze/ melt threads. Midlands Ice Age gives detailed impartial posts on a regular basis which I look forward to reading. If I want to get “political”, which I don’t, I also know where to find those threads.

    • Like 4
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