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Alekos

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    Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

    Surely because the UK has a mild climate? Not exactly rocket science or some kind of genius insight. Just reversion to the mean. (not meant as a dig at you but if more people accepted the reality of the UK climate, ie mild maritime, then there would be less disappointment and more pleasure from the scraps of "cold" that appear)

    But don't think was always like this ? Many more cold spells and snow here is n Greece over the last 20 years !

    Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, snowray said:

    They never seem to struggle with Greece's freezing temps and blizzards though do they, even from way out, funny that. In fact its often modelled to be heading our way initially and then it heads down South, sometimes very slowly towards Greece....and Southern Italy, Turkey etc where it never misses. :nonono:

    And Greece is a lot smaller than the our small Island.

    Hi yes since following models 5 years or so , when it becomes within 7 days has always happened as pretty much shown from beginning

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

    ECM 00z seems to be on the milder side of its ensembles from 192h so perhaps changes still possible. Also a comment for @Alekos, not the EC46 sorry, but I noticed GFS 00z FI shows even more cold into South East Europe. Something that keeps showing in the output in various forms. Every chance for the vintage Greek winter to continue I'd say.

    Thank you ! Yes more chances for us down here

    • Like 1

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, sparky1972 said:

    its ok everyone, i think its safe to say winters over, just seen the front page of the Daily Express and it says coldest winter for 6 years, well surely that cant be hard to achieve, but i guess it can.

    Tomorrow here we expect maximum of -6 ! The lowest temp records for parts near here are broken it seems every few years !

    • Like 2

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, snowblizzard said:

    Very frustrating!

    200 mile Westward shift and SE England would already be under -10 850's

    Why is the UK always under the yellow/green sector?

    05 Jan 17 850.png

    Because of northern jet and positive NAO ! I looked at this over 20 years when trying to see why we (in SE Europe) have seen much more cold and snow than in years before that !

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    6z highlights the contiuning problems well.Anything from the north/ north west will be transitory until we see a relaxation of the bloody northern jet!Even when we eventually see that other pain in the rear ( euro high) depart we still cannot get any meaningful retrogression in the Atlantic.

    So, glass half full we may see a toppler and cold air but by the time its getting established the azores high will kill off any associated precipitation.

    Still looks carp for any sustained cold imho..

    Hi the Northern jet strength has been the main reason I see for us getting so much cold and snow for last 20 years

    • Like 2
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