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comet

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Everything posted by comet

  1. comet
    That looks like a bit of an understatement to say the least. I wonder if the met office have started the new year celebrations early for there is nothing in the models so far this afternoon to suggest the outlook they have made for a weeks plus time.
  2. comet
    Cheers for the reply yourself and Bluearmy but it was not that long ago and I am sure it was in January. I think I will trawl the archive charts to see they jog my memory.
  3. comet
    It will be very interesting to see which way this goes. The UKMO says yes while the ecm and gfs ops say no. I wonder if anyone can remember what year it was when the metoffice along with the ecm and gfs were calling for an easterly but the ukmo model stubbornly refused to climb aboard. After several days the met and the other two models bowed to the ukmo model. This time things are reversed with the ukmo model and again the met more gun-ho for a colder more wintry east/north easterly and the ecm, gfs against. Whats the betting this time the UKMO model will be wrong this time that is the sort of luck us coldies in the UK have.
  4. comet
    There was nothing at all wrong with your post. I knew exactly what you were referring to as I suspect many other posters did. Some on here just like to be pedantic.
  5. comet
    Yes I am very well aware of that, just commenting on the op runs and what they are showing not what they may or may not show in a few days time.
  6. comet
    Yes I think most people reading this thread know exactly what you mean. It is very frustrating looking at the abundance of deep cold across the pond while in our locale the models try to eek out some very diluted cold uppers from a shallow surface high to the north/north east. The only saving grace this morning is the ukmo and although its accuracy at the end of its range is suspect it leaves some hope of a east/ north easterly with a bit more bite to it.
  7. comet
    Nothing like the depth of cold but a very tasty run. Probably 10% likely of verifying if that. Very nice to look at though.
  8. comet
    Only looked at the control run from the ens but it is a peach of a run for a short but potent cold snap with some snow to boot. still no reason to get overly optimistic. Could very well turn out to be a close but no cigar such as we have seen a few times in the last several years. Scotland may well see a wintry weather from the shallow high that forms to the north/ northeast though.
  9. comet
    To be equally fair I never said or intended to imply that he said anything about a bitter easterly maybe I should have worded it better. The fact that he said the Gem is also a high res model implied to me that he puts more faith in its output than myself that is all.
  10. comet
    It was not an objection just a view point, posters can do as they please obviously. Eps runs together with ens etc are skewered from the start of the run so to speak, but hey I know how you love your stats so you stick with them. I am just following numerous past failings of ensemble runs even when things looked like a lock (not that they do this time ) and instead using experience and intuition which tell me no its not going to happen. You obviously have more faith in the Gem model and ensembles fair play another 36 to 48 hours will probably be enough to sort this puzzle out and I very much doubt the gem or 06z will prove correct. Again I really hope I am wrong and we get the snowy bitter easterly we grave.
  11. comet
    Fail to see why models like the gem are trawled out to muddy the waters of an already uncertain outlook. I know some look to find a model run that supports what they want to see perhaps, but so far it is only the gem and the 06z gfs op run that show anywhere near the amplification to support the slider south/ south east trajectory and leave us in a east/ north easterly airflow for more than a day or so (ECM op run). Quite frankly this does not fill me with any confidence in the pattern going forward. With the higher resolution op runs struggling I doubt whether the ens. eps etc will over much useful guidance either. Fingers crossed I am wrong and the 06z is the new trend setter but I doubt that very much.
  12. comet
    Surprised the ecm 216 chart was as good as that ( which is not saying much). Quite underwhelmed this afternoon and evening by the model runs from a coldies point of view. Yes they are a lot better than last year but that does not make them great. Of course there will be changes to come that's for sure.
  13. comet
    Good post. A cold forecast was made only to be replaced by a much milder zonal pattern but just like the NWP models, forecasts are changing all the time. Trying to put to much detail into a long range forecast will probably lead to failure. Rather than trying to pin point where highs and low pressure areas for our little Island will be surely it would be better to give a broader brush idea of what to expect ie colder, milder, wetter, dryer, etc. Their is amplification to be had in the northern hemisphere weather pattern over the next few weeks which may be conducive for us but as always the models are struggling with the amount and location of such.
  14. comet
    I wrote a post yesterday hoping to show that there is still residual downwelling from wave breaking, warming at the 10mb level around 9th of December. This can be traced using the ESRL mean and anomaly composite charts. I think some have perhaps forgotten that there is normally a lag time with these warmings as they propagate down through the layers. I to very much doubt we will see a Scandi high at least not in the time frame that the 0z gfs was showing. In fact the 06z run proves how uncertain the models are with regard to modelling this downwelling with a completely different pattern to its previous run. There will I think be some amplification in the pattern ahead but how much and exactly where it will manifest itself is still very much up for grabs.
  15. comet
    Would not want to put any confidence into any forecast 3 weeks out whether it is showing deepfreeze or torch no matter where its source came from. The downwelling and warming I spoke of in a earlier post today is again probably the reason for seeing the synoptics that are showing in the 18z run but being the 18z run without good support from the ECM tomorrow and consistency from further gfs runs then will consign to the bin. We shall see.
  16. comet
    Just thinking aloud the warming that Catacol has shown to have taken place at 30mb and possible subsequent geo heights could very well still be showing its hand as it continues to downwell as we go into January. Normally there is a lag period and we have seen the affects this week of wave breaking and downwelling that occurred around the 9th of the month. The models are still toying with weaker heights to the north and north east which may be traced back to this downwelling . Again the ESRL mean and more especially the anomaly composite charts give perhaps a better idea of what I am referring to The mean composite chart for the 25th at 70mb where you can see the weakness between the low heights The anomaly chart for the same time shows the weakness better The anomaly chart for 23rd Dec at 2OOmb Now for the 25th of Dec and you can see there is an anomaly for stronger heights over the pole. The anomaly map of GEO heights are not that strong as can been seen on the mean chart below but are the very reason the states are seeing the brutal cold wave that is engulfing them. These slightly higher heights moving across the pole are what the models are trying to portray in the H500 charts over the coming 10 days or so. That is perhaps why we are not seeing the normal west to east zonal or very mild south westerlies that we would normally see under a very strong vortex.
  17. comet
    Perhaps the theory that a negative or easterly QBO = weaker vortex, needs to be re-examined along with the idea that a stronger vortex would lead to greater significance or impact when split etc. The trouble with this theory is that a much stronger vortex is of course that much harder to disturb.
  18. comet
    GFS strat forecasts lend some support to the synoptics seen on the H500 charts with warming and geopotential heights from pacific and European side stretching the vortex. Of course could be gone in a couple of runs time we will see. Certainly height rises our side of the pole could be very beneficial so long as they are strong enough otherwise a euro slug may be all that's on offer.
  19. comet
    Looks closer to 5cm to me which is still probably double what we had roughly 11 miles south of you, although you do have that extra bit of elevation in Stevenage. Back to the models and on the face of it they do look a lot, lot better this morning than they have done. Just a word of caution though the nw/se PM airflows quite often flatten out when enter the reliable timeframe. Not saying it will be the case this time but something to keep in mind. However a lot more to be optimistic about this morning that's for sure.
  20. comet
    All courtesy of strat forcing, AAM, GWO etc, etc following suite.
  21. comet
    A couple of reasons I would imagine... Probably because its been talked to death already and lol by the same posters that say its not worth talking about as the track will change nearer the time etc, etc. Once it gets to within 24 hours the conversation transfers into the regional threads. and last but not least as Feb1991blizzard has said, most are looking for a deepfreeze with laying powder snow and severe frosts etc although personally seeing snow fall for several hours and the chance for children to get out during the Christmas holidays and if they are lucky build a snowman and have some fun is worth it for me.
  22. comet
    Yep quite agree. Coupled strat/trop, strat dictates everything else falls in line. Interesting the zonal wind plots identical to last year when of course the QBO was polar opposite to this year. Some people put way to much emphasis on the QBO state, although I must admit I would rather see a negative QBO than positive one.
  23. comet
    No model will have the exact path laid down yet and won't do until maybe 12 hours before hand, therefore I would suggest everyone enjoy the rest of Christmas eve, have a lovely Christmas day tomorrow with family, friends and loved ones and then see where we are Boxing day. Merry Christmas to all on Netweather.
  24. comet
    Will it still be a top post if say in a couple of weeks it proves to be totally incorrect like the ones of GP and Tamara plus if things in the tropics can change as quick as that then they can do so again. Its as if these teleconnects and AAM budgets, GWO etc are the holy grail of weather forecasting lol. I am sure they play a part but I have yet to see any reliable long range forecasts on here or anywhere else. Sure on the face of it the outlook beyond some interest next week does not look great but that can soon change. Also there is never much mention of the strat forecasts in any these musings and yet when the strat and trop are coupled the strat plays a very important part on the tropospheric weather patterns regardless of the above teleconnets etc.
  25. comet
    Obviously you have not been reading my posts over the last several days then, but as you say some interest over the coming Christmas holidays.
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