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TonyH

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  1. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    [b]Headline: Disruptive heavy snowfalls, very cold.[/b][/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    Due to popular request and in view of the upcoming interesting and most probably severe weather here is a mid week update:[/size][/font][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]

    Warwickshire had around an inch of snow on Monday, but so far this Winter the snow has missed West Wales, bar a few flurries. A weak front over the Irish Sea is giving some very light snow to West Wales this evening, although I suspect that near the coast it is drizzle. Freezing fog meant a very cold day for the Midlands today, HIGHS of -3c in Warwickshire. Pembrokeshire on the other hand managed +5c this afternoon, quite a contrast.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    Further light snow flurries overnight and even tomorrow morning for West Wales giving a slight but unproblematic covering, with weak fronts close by. Another severe frost for Wednesday night over most of the Midlands, temperatures down to -7c in places again, misty with fog in places again too. A chance the snow flurries could extend into the West Midlands later in the night. Freezing fog lasting through Thursday morning in parts of the East Midlands, but an increasing breeze should lift this by early afternoon, with some sunny intervals possible. Another largely cloudy day for West Wales, a little light rain, sleet or snow at times, most of the snow flurries on high ground, as the weak front nudges slightly less cold air into west Wales during the day. Maxima on Thursday below zero again for the Midlands, and up to 5c for Pembrokeshire.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    The fun and games begins on Thursday night with a deep Atlantic low pressure thrusting it's fronts into the cold blocking Scandinavian high. The high is intensifying and unwilling to give ground over the coming days, so with these fronts hitting the cold air the result is widespread snowfalls throughout Friday lasting well into Saturday! Heavy and disruptive falls are expected, something to beware of if planning to travel on these days. Not all of us will see snow, at least not to start with, as the front will make some progress into Wales, and where it gets across to means the difference between where it rains and snows. The likely outcome for Friday appears that the snow proper starts over Wales during the early hours, although over lowland Pembrokeshire it most likely will be rain or sleet. The snow, some heavy, then spreads aross the Midlands during the morning, driven by a strong SE to east wind causing it to pile up and drift.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    For Wales then, snow, heavy at times EAST of a line roughly Swansea - Lampeter - Aberystwyth - Lleyn Peninsular, these areas look set to have a lot of drifting snow throughout Friday, many places seeing at least 6 inches on the ground by night-time, and a foot is possible in hillier areas too. A very disruptive snowfall that has consistently been modelled for these same areas over recent days. West of this line, the models suggest slightly less cold air makes it, resulting in generally rain and sleet for much of Pembrokeshire, south and west Carmarthenshire, SW Ceredigion perhaps, and the Gower. However, this 'snow-line' may well shift a little come Friday, so even Carmarthen and Pembroke may see a snowy day, and vice versa, Swansea, Lampeter and Aberystwyth could see less snow than currently modelled. Even given the various permutations, the cold wins out later on Friday, so that disruptive snowfalls then spread west to cover even SW Wales into Friday night.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    And what of the Midlands - the majority of this region seeing heavy and persistent snowfalls from Friday midday onwards lasting well into the night. Just the chance that the far NE Midlands, such as Lincolnshire may escape, but this too subject to change, should the front make it a little further east into the block? All in all, for virtually the whole of Wales and the Midlands Friday is looking like a severe snowfall event and probably not a good idea too travel, and best stock up in case you are snowed in over the weekend! Temperatures on Friday perhaps up to 5c for West Pembokeshire, but not higher than +1c for Lampeter and a bitter -2c for Rugby. Wndchill quite severe with all the snow and strong winds, not the best day to venture out for most perhaps? Be sensible take a Snow Day![/size][/font][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    [attachment=154659:PPVI89 snow Day Friday.png][attachment=154660:ecmt850_048 heavy snow Fri.png][attachment=154661:prectypeuktopo widespread snow Fri.png][/size][/font]
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    For Saturday, still further snow to come would you believe, as the trough gradually dies a death over the south-west. Wales and the SW Midlands looking like being hardest hit on Saturday, the snow depths piling up even further, and with the 36 hours or more of snow modelled in these areas, we are looking at a foot of level snow quite widely, and drifts many times this that would block roads and railways. The snow should begin to peter out during the afternoon. Light winds on Saturday night over the deep snow cover, means that if the cloud clears some really low temperatures by Sunday morning. Not modelled this evening, but GFS has being showing minima of as low as -14c over Snowdonia, and -8c over the Mildands. Freezing fog in places too on Sunday morning. These figures are easily attainable but depend on the clear skies. Mostly dry and bitterly cold on Sunday, just scattered snow showers, mainly for the East Midlands, few places reaching zero.[/size][/font][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    [attachment=154662:ecmt850_072 further snow Sat.png][attachment=154663:ecmt850_096 Ec cold temps Sun next snow threat looms.png][attachment=154664:met_120 next snow threat Mon.png][/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    The very cold weather looks like lasting well into next week too, and with another deep Atlantic low set to hit the cold block on Monday this could herald yet more disruptive snow for the supposed return to work![/size][/font][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    [attachment=154665:ecmt850_120 snowy Mon.png][/size][/font]
  2. TonyH
    [font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Sunny spells and a few showers; wet in places Thursday; warm with thundery shower potential next weekend[/b][/font]

    [font=Helvetica][color=rgb(0,0,0)]June 2014 was a rather warm month with variable but generally below average rainfall, just a few spots in the Midlands being wetter than normal due to localised downpours[/color][color=rgb(0,0,0)] [/color][color=rgb(0,0,0)]towards the end of the month. Some monthly totals:[/color][/font]

    [font=Helvetica][color=rgb(0,0,0)]Long Lawford, Warwickshire 78.1mm[/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Church Lawford, Warwickshire 67.0mm [/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Bablake School, Coventry 48mm[/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Llanwnnen, Ceredigion 58.5mm[/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Trawsgoed, Ceredigion 54.8mm[/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Pembrey Sands, Carmarthenshire 39.6mm[/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Llanelli, Carmarthenshire 34.8mm[/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Some reasonably warm weather last week with sunny spells, nothing spectacular again temperature-wise, highest readings being 24.8c Llanwnnen and 24.2c Porthmadog on Tuesday, 23.9c at Wellesbourne and 23.8c Church Lawford, both Warwickshire on Thursday. Thursday was rather cloudy and drizzly over West Wales while the Midlands had another warm day with sunny intervals. On Friday it was wet across Wales, but still mostly dry and warm for the Midlands, while it reached 29c in SE England, the hottest of the Summer to date. It has not been a bad weekend with only a few showers about. Sunday night was very cool over parts of Wales, here it fell to 3.2c, one of the coolest July nights I have recorded.[/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Another week with a fair bit of generally dry and rather warm weather although there will be some rain or showers about too, the warmest weather may coincide with next weekend. Sunny spells and a few scattered showers on Sunday afternoon, if you do catch one it could be very heavy with a clap of thunder. Highs of 19 to 21c, close to the early July average. Another cool night with clear periods, some rural spots getting down to around 5c. A few showers continuing for western coasts. A shallow low is centred close to Scotland early this week, so the overall showery theme continues, however many of us escaping with very few showers and some stay completely dry, but where they occur they give heavy downpours with the chance of thunder. Decent sunny spells between any showers and so feeling quite warm in these with temperatures up to 19 to 21c again and only light winds. Another largely clear and cool night to follow, most places getting below 10c. High pressure attempts to ridge in from the SW during Tuesday but may not prevent some more showers from developing, there will be further pleasant sunny intervals, maxima 18 to 21c, so not bad with many places having an essentially dry day bar the odd shower. We are in a kind of weather 'No Man's Land' mid week as the UK sits between various weather fronts and ridges of high pressure. Sunny intervals and generally dry again on Wednesday, just the outside chance of a shower, and familiar temperatures of 18 to 21c, although we may notice the northerly breeze freshening through the day. [/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]A pincer movement of fronts gradually advancing from both west and east during Thursday, but as these are moving into relatively higher pressure over us, the energy tends to get squeezed out. However still enough frontal energy extant to produce some localised areas of rain or showers, these perhaps thundery, and no doubt some areas see more in the way cloud on Thursday. Variable temperatures due to the patchy nature of the cloud, rain/ showers on Thursday, a warm 23c where sunny breaks occur, but a cool 17c where wet, difficult to specify who gets what though! To hazard a guess would be a scenario in which rain or showers affect the East Midlands Thursday afternoon with West Wales more likely to have a fine and warm day...[/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Our weather remains in an indecisive vein for the end of the week and indeed next weekend, the only certainty seems that we are in a warmer air mass by then. For Friday and the weekend then, the stab is for warm and quite sticky weather, oft-times dry but with the threat of some thundery showers. Maxima in the 21 to 26c range, with sticky night for coasts, towns and cities where it may not fall lower than 15c. [/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][attachment=218081:PPVG89 scattered showers MO.png][attachment=218079:ecmt850.048 rather unsettled MO TU.png][attachment=218082:h850t850eu few showers near ave.png][attachment=218083:PPVL89 NML m dry.png][attachment=218084:h850t850eu rain threat form E TH.png][attachment=218080:ecmt850.120 NML Thu squeezed out fronts.png][attachment=218085:ecmt850.168 warm weekend threat of thundery showers times.png][attachment=218086:h850t850eu warm sultry weekend some thundery showers.png][attachment=218087:prcpWest~Midlands greater rain threat weekend.png][attachment=218088:prmslWest~Midlands indifferent pressures.png][attachment=218089:t850West~Midlands warmer mass from FR.png][attachment=218090:mgram_Birmingham.png][/color][/font]
  3. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]

    [b]Headline: Mostly dry and quite mild Monday/ Tuesday; cold and often windy with wintry showers and some longer spells of sleet or snow Wednesday onwards[/b]

    [b]Last weeks highlights[/b]

    Quite a cold week just gone, the coldest of what has been quite a mild Winter to date, however only a few areas saw much in the way of snow: hard frost across Wales last Sunday night lowest readings -7.6c Llanwnnen, -7.5c Sennybridge and -5.6c Trawsgoed followed by a lovely sunny Monday bar some wintry showers over Pembrokeshire ('Dangler'). The Midlands was colder on Monday night, many spots getting to -5c, including -5.2c at Coventry. Snow in places Tuesday into Wednesday. although WW missed this, even over the Midlands it was a fleeting affair, only the north of Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire seeing appreciable falls, the Peak District as so often getting locally deep accumulations of over 6 inches. A sharp frost Thursday night, especially parts of the Midlands, -6.8c Pershore and -6.1c Hereford. Friday did end up mild at above 9c over WW by evening. Overall it was a fairly dry week with precipitation amounts generally low (weekly totals under 10mm)).

    [b]The week ahead[/b]

    After the cold weather last week the start of this coming week is generally mild, and there will plenty of dry weather during Monday and Tuesday. Big changes from Wednesday however as we are plunged into a cold and quite windy NW flow bringing showers and some longer spells of wintry weather, most of us should have seen at least some snow come next weekend.

    Sunday is a mostly cloudy and mild day, a few sunny intervals are possible, mainly Midlands. WW will be seeing a little rain or drizzle at times as the day progresses. Highs Sunday 9 to 11c, with a moderate SW breeze. Staying cloudy and mild tonight with a little light rain or drizzle at times, then with a band of more persistant and moderate rain affecting all parts later in the night. No lower than 7c excepting NW Wales where skies clear by dawn. Any rain clears the South Midlands by midday and with a ridge of high pressure over Ireland it should be a mostly dry afternoon with some sunshine. Sunny intervals from the off for most of WW, just the odd light shower possible here afternoon. Highs Monday 7 to 9c with a moderate to fresh NW breeze. Clear spells overnight leads to a fairly widespread but slight frost, minima between -1c and +2c inland.

    The ridge is over sourthern Britain during Tuesday which is another largely dry day with sunny intervals and a brisk westerly breeze, highs 6 to 8c about average for the end of January. Probably clouding over during the afternoon for WW as fronts approach, these bringing a little rain or drizzle during the evening. Cloudy and mild for Tuesday night with rain at times, some heavy bursts for WW, and a strong SW to west wind. We will be in a warm sector on Tuesday night so one of those nights when it turns milder, temperatures up to around 10c after midnight. A pronounced cold front in total contrast swiftly moves through all parts during Wednesday morning with a band of heavy rain and gusty winds along it before it clears. Much colder air for Wednesday afternoon, sunny intervals and showers these turning increasingly wintry especially for high ground. Temperatures that were close to 10c at dawn Wednesday will be down to just 2 or 3c by mid afternoon! Feeling bitter in the fresh to strong WNW wind and by the end of the afternoon showers may well be falling as sleet or snow even to low levels. Remaining quite windy with wintry showers through Wednesday night too, most of the showers affecting WW, snow and hail featuring in these showers with a clap of thunder possible, and by morning there will be a covering of snow in places. In spite of the wind there will be a frost with temperatures down around -2c away from coasts.

    By Thursday a large complex area of low pressure area has become situated between the UK and Scandinavia and controls our weather for the remainder of the week. Winds right through to the weekend predominantly coming from a cold NW to north direction and with the quite deep low so close by it will prove interesting weather too! A wintry mix of showers for Thursday then driven by a fresh west to NW wind, snow could fall in the showers virtually anywhere but more especially over hills, some heavy showers putting down a fresh covering - again this possible almost anywhere. Maxima of just 2 to 4c Thursday so a cold and wintry day! A longer spell of sleet or snow may move down from the NW later Thursday or during the night, and if so may give appreciable falls particularly to higher ground. A low may be centred over eastern England during Thursday night meaning lighter winds by this stage and so with clear intervals between the wintry showers a widespread frost will develop along with icy stretches, minima 0 to -3c.

    A similarly cold and wintry picture seems likely for Friday too with low pressure just to our east and north, further showers or longer spells of sleet or snow, this settling particularly over high ground. Note: any snow accumulations to lower ground may well come and go as temperatures rise enough during day time to permit thawing, and in any case perhaps fewer showers getting across the Midlands with some places here having a mostly dry, bright day. Highs Friday between 2 and 5c with a cold NW wind. Next weekend and the cold and unsettled weather with showers and possibly a longer spell of wintry conditions looks like lasting. The details modelled vary obviously at this range ahead, but there is the risk of some more widespread snowfall at some stage next weekend as we remain locked into this cold pattern, no higher than 4 or 5c by day and there will be frosts by night. As with Friday WW most prone to wintry showers with the SE Midlands more sheltered and so may escape the worst.
    [attachment=241293:PPVG89 Mo m dry bright breezy.png][attachment=241294:PPVJ89 dry TU clouds over WW pm.png][attachment=241295:ecmt850.072 rain wind Tu night.png][attachment=241296:PPVL89 marked CF am colder wintry showers pm WE.png][attachment=241297:ecmt850.096 windy wintry showers We night.png][attachment=241301:PPVO89 cold wintry showers poss longer spell TH.png][attachment=241307:viewimage wintry showers TH.png][attachment=241298:ecm500.120 cold wintry TH FR low UK.png][attachment=241299:ecmt850.168 cold further wintry showers WEND.png][attachment=241300:viewimage cold unsettled wintry weekend.png][attachment=241302:viewimage cold from later WE.png][attachment=241303:viewimage precip most days bar Tu.png][attachment=241304:viewimage unsettled wintry from mid week.png][attachment=241305:mgram_Birmingham.png]
    [/font][/color]
  4. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Becoming dry, warm and quite sunny! [/b]

    The week just gone was not too bad overall with plenty of dry weather, if generally rather cool. Llanwnnen did manage to reach 18c on Friday though, which is a little above the May average. A total of 20mm of rain falling on Llanwnnen, and only 10mm on Coventry in the past week.

    A taste of Summer on the way in the coming week (let's hope it's not the last!), with the highest temperatures since that exceptionally warm spell in March.

    Messy looking charts for Sunday and Monday as weak fronts straddle the country, with legacies of cloud and a little rain or drizzle in places. Signs of the big improvement to come with our weather showing on Monday however, with a ridge starting to build over western and northern UK, and where it will be a dry and bright day, so west Wales should see some sunshine Monday afternoon.
    [attachment=134342:brack1a improvement signs ridge starts.gif]

    Then, during Tuesday and Wednesday, this seemingly dubious ridge continues to strengthen across the UK, wedged precariously between low pressure over most of Europe to the south-east, and the nearby Atlantic to our west. In spite of this, the ridge is modelled to build and hold on for the rest of the week, extending from a high over Scandinavia.
    [attachment=134343:Recm722 precarious ridge Tue.gif] [attachment=134344:Rtavn842 wam uppers from Tue.png] [attachment=134345:brack4 stronger ridge Wed however precarious.gif]

    In weather terms then, Tuesday onwards will be dry with decent sunny spells. As usual cloud amounts in the circulation are difficult to establish, but west Wales and the Midlands seem set for a reasonably sunny spell, any areas of cloud more likely towards the east. With the sunshine and favourable wind direction a warm, even very warm week, is in prospect, maxima reaching between 20c and 24c widely, and I would not rule out the odd 26c by Friday. Breezes of variable direction mid week, becoming more easterly or even south-east as the week progresses, and these may also freshen up a bit too. Mild nights, so that no more ground frosts to be concerned with.
    [attachment=134346:Rtavn1081 Scandi H Wed dry warm sunny.png] [attachment=134347:Recm1202 Scandi H Thu warm dry easterly.gif] [attachment=134348:Rukm1441 scandi high Fri dry warm.gif] [attachment=134349:Rtavn1562 potentially very warm Friday SE flow.png]


    Next weekend, a shallow weak low is being modelled close to our south-west, which could threaten some showery rain for Saturday, but this is a long way off, and equally the warm and sunny spell may well hang on a bit longer! In fact, it's all highly speculative, but the GFS model is showing the warm and mostly dry spell to continue for the rest of May...
    [attachment=134350:Recm1682 SE wind showers threaten weekend.gif] [attachment=134351:Rtavn1744 showery rain poss Sat.png] [attachment=134352:Rtavn1801 fly in ointment for next Sat poss.png]
  5. TonyH
    [size=4][color=#000000][font=arial][b]Headline: Very unsettled and windy, spells of rain and showers, heavy at times, localised flooding, cooler later[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]What a wintry week! Not especially cold for West Wales, surprisingly, with all the snow about, here at Lampeter there were no 'Ice days' and no hard frosts or windscreens to scrape. It was a very overcast spell, the cloud blanket preventing temperatures from falling below -4c here. However the 9cm snow which fell here on Friday 18th only gradually thawed, and was still covering more than half the ground surface on Friday 25th. A week of lying snow is quite an achievement in these temperate Isles, although in November/ December [b]2010[/b] the snow stuck for a fortnight. Warwickshire on the other hand, has had lots of snow and low temperatures with 6 ice days (max below zero) out of the 8 days to Wednesday at Coventry. Bablake School Weather Station ([url="http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/"]http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/[/url]) reported the greatest snow depth since 1991 last week (15cm), a measure really of how lacking deep snow has been in that part of the world over the past 22 years. [/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Surprise snowfalls that were poorly forecast all around affected South and West Wales on Wednesday and caused some disruption, especially in the Llanelli area, parts of Pembrokeshire and West Ceredigion. Unusually, Llanelli had two quite heavy falls within 5 days. People sometimes ask 'will it snow here tomorrow?' and seem perplexed when the answer is a 'maybe', 'perhaps' or 'possibly'! There are many factors involved with snow prediction so that it is impossible to be certain even a few hours before a snow event, as it's almost always a case 'nowcasting' - looking at the radar, traffic cams and out of the window! There is often a fine line between whether it will rain or snow at a given location. Some of the factors involved:[/font][/color][/size][list]
    [*][size=4]height above sea level (places above 200m are much more snowy that near sea level),[/size]
    [*][size=4]air temperature close to the surface (closer to zero the better for snow, although it may still rain below zero)[/size]
    [*][size=4]temperature up in the clouds (rule of thumb, below -5c means snow will fall)[/size]
    [*][size=4]dew points MUST be below zero for snow to fall[/size]
    [*][size=4]wind direction - slight shifts make big differences, example SE cold, dry Continental air and snow, southerly moist, milder and rain[/size]
    [*][size=4]heavy rain cools surrounding air through evaporation and may turn to snow[/size]
    [*][size=4]also local topography, 'thickness' of the atmosphere, etc.[/size]
    [/list]
    [size=4][color=#000000][font=arial]Interestingly, most rain in the UK starts as snow high in the atmosphere[/font][/color]


    [color=#000000][font=arial]Derek Brockway, our BBC Wales weatherman, had some stick on Twitter this week after not forecasting a heavy snowfall in SE Wales on Tuesday, and then again the unexpected heavy falls in SW Wales on Wednesday. This guide is intended to be a general outlook to the coming weather over the week and is not a useful tool for picking out localised heavy snow 3 days in the future, especially given the Met Office did not realise even as the event was underway! Part of the fun with the weather is that it never fails to make fools of the forecasters![/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Thunderstorms for many of us in West Wales yesterday evening with some really bright flashes of fork lighning - everything but the kitchen sink lately! Very mild overnight, 11c maxima for Sunday in the early hours here under that warm sector air mass!. All this weather the result of a very deep low to the south of Iceland (938mbar). Nice to see the sunshine this morning... however heavy showers with hail, and again a clap of thunder in places, are set to move into West Wales this afternoon, with an isolated shower into the south Midlands also later, a windy afternoon temperatures reaching around 8c. Another deep low develops out in the Atlantic tonight and is set to bring very windy and wet weather for Monday as its fronts cross the UK. First of all clear spells and only a few showers tonight leading to a ground frost for many by morning, excepting Pembrokeshire where cloud and strong winds arrive by dawn heralding a wet day. Rain, heavy at times through the afternoon, some torrential downpours for West Wales, driven by a strong to gale force SW wind, making it feel quite cold, even though temperatures eventually reach around 8c late on Monday afternoon. The rain clears to a few showers in the evening.[/font][/color]
    [color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=158124:PPVA89 VDL 938 showery bright today.png][attachment=158125:PPVG89 wet windy Mon.png][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Yet another vigorous low pressure system comes at us from the Atlantic on Tuesday, this one containing very mild sub-Tropical air. With all this mild, moist air hitting the Welsh hills throughout Tuesday some large amounts of rain here with flooding likely in some areas, as there will be 50 - 75mm rain falling in places. For the MIdlands a cloudy, very mild day with spells of mostly light rain and drizzle. Temperatures on Tuesday reaching 11c for West Wales and 13c in parts of the Midlands. The trailing front from the system gives further spells of rain to south Wales and the south Midlands in particular well into Tuesday night, but drier for northern parts of our regions. Wednesday sees cooler, showery westerly winds, but with some sunny spells developing, especially through the afternoon as a feeble ridge edges over. This transient ridge could just about last long enough for a ground frost to develop on Wednesday night. [/font][/color]
    [color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=158126:PPVJ89 Tue copious rain WW v mild.png][attachment=158127:ecmt850.072 next DL L to NI Tue heavy rain espWW v mild sector.png][attachment=158128:PPVL89 bright showery Wed.png][attachment=158129:ecmt850.096 bright showers Wed.png][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]The next low moves towards NW Britain on Thursday, with further bands of rain and showers crossing all parts. Temperatures a little above the January average on Thursday reaching 7 to 9c. On Friday the low gets into the North Sea so dragging down colder NW winds, more rain or showers at times on Friday, and possibly sleet or snow for Welsh hills and the Cotswolds, maxima 6 to 8c, and feeling quite cold, although perhaps a drier day for south Wales and the south Midlands this.[/font][/color]
    [color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=158130:metslp.120 unsettled colder Fri.png][attachment=158131:ecmt850.144 unsettled colder Fri.png][attachment=158132:h850t850eu FRi colder showery.png][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Next weekend, as usual subject to change, as it is a long way off to forecast! Hinting at a drier interlude with high pressure ridging into the UK from the SW, there will still be troughs coming over the top of this high, so some rain at times, but probably nothing like there will have been earlier in the week, with generally lighter rain or showers over next weekend. Where the cloud breaks there will be the risk of overnight frosts as we will be in a chilly NW flow by then.[/font][/color]
    [color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=158133:ecmt850.168 bit of cold R weekend.png][attachment=158134:h850t850eu drier weekend cool.png][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]--
    Follow me on Twitter [url="https://twitter.com/Lampeterweather"]@Lampeterweather[/url][/font][/color][/size]
  6. TonyH
    [b]
    [b]Headline: Very unsettled, plenty more rain, more flooding prospects. Cool.[/b][/b]

    With just over a week of June gone most places in west Wales and the central MIdlands have already reached or exceeded the average June rainfall for the whole month. The Midlands had well over an inch last weekend, while Llanwnnen had over 2 inches falling over Thursday and Friday. These amounts, however, pale into insignificance compared with the amounts that fell over north Ceredigion and around Machynlleth causing the almost unprecedented flooding. The official Met Office weather site at Trawsgoed, near Aberystwyth, recorded over 80mm on Friday alone, so a month's rain in a single day! Radar accumulations suggest double this amount over the higher ground north- east of Aberystwyth and around the Dovey estuary. Hopefully, a rainfall event of this magnitude will not recur for many decades in that area!

    Some notably cool weather too for the start of June, Coventry had one of it's coldest June days on record last Sunday, a maximum of just 11c, while during Friday afternoon, Llanwnnen did not get above 11c either.

    Although a bit of a respite from the really heavy rain for a few days, we will see more heavy rain and showers this week, and there is the potential for another deluge later in the week, one to watch developments on ... but at this stage it's really not looking that good with further flooding likely.

    A rather cool and showery set up until the middle of the coming week, with longer spells of rain in places. A little low is running up the English Channel during Sunday, with some showery rain for many parts, and the south Midlands getting some more general rain later today and tonight from this low. Showers for Monday, mostly for the Midlands, and poor temperatures for Summer, struggling to reach 16c. During Tuesday another little low feature is set to develop over Wales, and so enhancing the rain and showers here, meaning wetter in the west for Tuesday, but perhaps a drier interlude for the Midlands. Unfortunately this low sticks over Wales through into Wednesday, so the potential for some large rainfall totals again here in places yet again. Temperatures will be suppressed on Tuesday and Wednesday where it is cloudy and wet, no higher than 14c, but given any sunny intervals a more respectable 19c could be reached for the more fortunate.
    [attachment=135254:Recm482 cool showery mon and tue.gif] [attachment=135255:Rtavn602 showery mostly cool Tue.png] [attachment=135256:brack2a small L Wales Wed.gif] [attachment=135257:Rtavn841 stubborn little feature over Wales perhaps wet again.png]

    Rainfall and flooding wise - even worse prospects for the end of the week. Another deep Atlantic low is slowly approaching later on Thursday, and this is set to gradually cross England and Wales during Friday and Saturday. Large rainfall totals are being modelled from this for Friday especially, easily an inch or more widely, and some areas could get a lot more unfortunately. These type of systems, such as we saw last week, and that is expected for the end of this week, contain marked temperature contrasts, which often result in copious rain, and not helped by the fact that these are so slow in crossing the UK, so there could well be more serious flooding issues by the end of the week, and perhaps more especially for Wales again. Let's just hope that the Aberystwyth and Machynlleth areas are spared the worst on this occasion. Friday could also be a notably cold June day again too, with projected highs of under 10c for north Wales on Friday, although this, at least is subject to change for the better? Although the end of the week could well turn windy for a while, a repeat of last Friday's damaging gales is considered unlikely. Nonetheless, a very cool, and very wet prospect to end the week - about as bad as it can get in Summer!
    [attachment=135258:brack4 another deep moist rainy L to SW Thu.gif] [attachment=135259:Recm1202 deep wet L approaches Thu.gif] [attachment=135260:Rtavn1322 fro L temp contrast.png] [attachment=135261:Rtavn1324 wet Fri.png] [attachment=135263:Recm1442 L still there Fri very wet.gif]

    No let up from this exceptionally poor Summer weather even next weekend which continues to appear low pressure dominated.
    [attachment=135265:Recm1682 wet weekend.gif] [attachment=135266:Rtavn1801 unsettled still next weekend.png]
  7. TonyH
    [size=4][color=#000000][font=arial][b]Headline: Mostly cold with wintry showers and night frosts; possible snow events later in the week.[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Rain amounts this past week were not high enough to give more than localised flooding. A mild week gone with no frosts until the slight ones this weekend. For the month of January temperatures averaged out a little below normal, while rainfall was close to average for both West Wales and Warwickshire, with 120mm the total at Llanwnnen and 51mm at Rugby. The weather turns quite cold again this week and many places will be seeing some snow, although this will not be a 'big freeze'! [/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Further light rain and drizzle at times this evening and tonight, most of this for West Wales, but this mild damp air will be swept away as the cold front clears before dawn. With a deep low centred to the north of Scotland, Monday will be a bright but windy day with a few showers, mainly for West Wales. Temperatures around the average reaching 7c. There will be a ground frost, and local air frost for some on Monday night but with the breeze continuing. Showers becoming more widespread, frequent and wintry during Monday night as colder air digs down. Colder on Tuesday with a fresh to strong west to NW wind. Showery too, and with maxima of just 2 to 4c many of these showers will be of sleet, snow or hail. Most of the showers over West Wales, and on the hills above about 200m significant accumulation of snow is likely through Tuesday, although at lower levels, especially below about 100m, any settling is likely to be only temporary. A lobe of less cold air tracks down later on Tuesday so that showers tend to turn more to sleet or rain during the evening, especially below 300m. Becoming frosty eventually overnight.[/font][/color]
    [color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=158914:PPVG89 windy some showers Mon DL.png][attachment=158915:PPVJ89 cold wintry showers Tue.png][attachment=158916:ecmt850.048 cold wintry showers Tue.png][attachment=158917:h850t850eu cold wintry showers Tue.png][attachment=158919:ecmt850.072 less cold Tue night.png][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Another cold and windy day on Wednesday, and with the low by this time over the North Sea/ Denmark area, winds will have turned northerly. Further wintry showers affecting West Wales, some quite heavy with hail, and with snow settling above about 200m again. The Preseli hills the favourite for a snow covering on Wednesday perhaps, with a shower 'streamer ', sometimes referred to as a 'Pembrokeshire Dangler' in which a line of showers track all the way down the Irish Sea in the north flow making landfall on the north Pembrokeshire coast. [/font][/color][/size][color=#000000][font=arial]Some wintry showers also affecting the MIdlands on Wednesday, few and far between west of Coventry, with most over the East Midlands, some good sunny spells though on Wednesday for much of the Mildands. [/font][/color][color=#000000][font=arial]Highs of 3 or 4c on Wednesday, feeling very chilly in the fresh to strong north wind. Clear periods and a few wintry showers overnight leading to a slight frost. Lighter winds for Thursday, sunny intervals and wintry showers in places, with again snow for high ground. Maxima 3 to 5c. However, disturbances or troughs could be tracking south in a slack, cold northerly flow to bring wintry showers or possibly a longer spell of sleet or snow in places later on Thursday, so something to look out for surprise snowfall-wise?[/font][/color]
    [size=4][color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=158918:PPVL89 cold wintry showers Pembs Dangler Wed.png][attachment=158920:ecmt850.120 poss disturbance surprise Thu.png][attachment=158921:h850t850eu cold wintry showers Thu.png][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Friday will see the Azores high ridging NE over the UK so a generally dry but quite cold day with good sunny spells. Less cold air is at this point attempting to ride over the ridge into the UK so it may be milder especially for Pembrokeshire/ SW Wales on Friday, maxima ranging from 4c over the Midlands to 7c over West Pembrokeshire. This then leads us into a POTENTIAL battleground snow event next weekend, as an Atlantic trough tries to move into the cold air over Europe according to the ECM model. The models are showing differing scenarios for next weekend (as often!) some have the cold winning out after the battleground snow possibility, while others see less cold air making it over us with just rain, we shall see...but it is difficult to get proper snow in southern Britain.[/font][/color]
    [color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=158923:h850t850eu R dry Fri.png][attachment=158922:ecmt850.168 battleground west Sat.png][attachment=158924:h850t850eu milder some rain weekend.png][/font][/color][/size]
  8. TonyH
    [size=3][color=#000000][font=arial][b]Headline: Continuing very cold with more snow at times, snow cover persisting. Thaw possible next weekend[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]The snows duly arrived on Friday, for most of us. Carmarthen and some other spots somehow remained green oases in a white West Wales landscape, neighbouring Pembrokshire, Llanelli and all surrounding hills received at least a cm or so. Depths of snow heard about incude: Llanwnnen 9cm, Llanelli 4cm, Aberystwyth several cm, Coventry 15cm and Rugby 11cm. Also the River Teifi webcam, near Newcastle Emlyn showed that there escaped the snow too. Greatest depths were as predicted by the Met Office in the South Wales hills, with close on a foot! The snow has managed to stick with temperatures struggling to get much above freezing during this weekend, however with all the cloud there have not been any really cold nights yet in this spell, no nights below -3c here in West Wales in the past week. Much of the coming week remains very cold and with low pressure often close by, there will most likely be fresh snowfalls adding to what we already have, although it is going to be difficult to pinpoint just where and when these snowfalls will be, suffice to say that, much like todays fall in the Midlands, various areas will get surprised by new snowfalls. The thaw MAY arrive next weekend. [/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Much of the central Midlands is getting a fresh blanket of snow today, with several more inches widely and it is still coming down, Warwickshire and Birmingham is getting hardest hit by this snow, Nuneaton has had over 3 inches fresh snow today, an amount that was not being forecast even this morning! This is from a trough that has moved NW from France, and is also affecting East Wales. There may be some light snow flurries for mid and NW Wales too this evening, but not likely to amount to much here. So spells of moderate snow lasting most this evening over the Midlands giving several additional inches in places. Skies may clear after midnight in SW Wales and the south MIdlands leading to a sharp frost of -5c in places, but only -1c under the cloud further north.[/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Mondays charts are very messy looking with various slow moving fronts and little lows over or close to the UK. There will be snowfalls affecting various areas, most of the snow should be quite light, but as with today some spots could see a good few inches top up, more likely NW Wales and the NW Midlands perhaps, however, be aware that a surprise snow event could crop almost anywhere in such an ill defined synoptic set up! Another very cold day on Monday, temperatures again struggling to reach freezing point over the Midlands, and just 2 or 3c at best for West Wales. A day that fails to reach 0c is known as an 'Ice day', these are few and far between in a typical Winter in southern Britain, and in milder winters there may be none recorded at all.[/font][/color]
    [color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=156473:PPVE89 (1) cold messy snow in places.png][/font][/color]


    [color=#000000][font=arial]Another low tracks over SW England during Tuesday again engaging our cold air mass, before this another severe frost in places, down as low as -10c where there is deep snow cover coupled with clear skies. Snow at times then on Tuesday, more especially for West Wales, where heavy falls are possible locally. Very cold again, it will be an ice day in places, although SW Wales should manage 2c. The low edges into France through Wednesday but is close enough for snow showers to spread west from the North Sea, affecting mainly the Midlands, and with only a few expected to make it over the mountains to West Wales. An easterly breeze on Wednesday and again very low temperatures, maxima only 1 or 2c. [/font][/color]
    [color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=156474:PPVJ89 Ch L snow for S.png][attachment=156475:ecmt850.072 Ch L Tue night snow threat S.png][attachment=156480:h850t850eu slack E Wed.png][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]At this stage it looks like higher pressure builds over the UK for Thursday, which looks like a mostly dry but frosty day with sunny spells, maxima of just 1c, but reaching 3c for Pembrokeshire. Another sharp frost follows for Thursday night. Changes start from Friday, signalling a likely thaw for next weekend. A deep Atlantic low approaches Ireland late on Friday with strenghening southerly winds by evening over Wales. Friday could also be a mostly dry day, as high pressure is close to Eastern England, although snow or rain may affect West Wales by midnight. Possibly the last of the really cold days, Friday should be another ice day for the Midlands, and feeling raw with the freshening wind over West Wales, although temperatures here could be up to 4c or so by evening. [/font][/color]
    [color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=156476:PPVO89 m dry frosty Thu.png][attachment=156477:ecmt850.120 cold R Thu to Fri.png][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Very uncertain prospects for next weekend, some model runs recently have showed a big change to milder unsettled conditions, with 10c predicted for Wales, HOWEVER, the ending of a cold spell is hard to predict, and today's models have showed the cold block putting up much more of a fight over next weekend. There is then certainly the risk of a big 'battleground' snow event next weekend, the latest GFS run shows this, and east and north Wales and the Midlands would get a quite severe snowstorm, but with less cold air meaning rain or sleet for SW Wales away from high ground. ECM's latest offering has a deep low over SW England next Saturday night which would bring strong winds and blizzards for high ground at least! [/font][/color]
    [color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=156478:ecmt850.168 hill blizzard Sat night.png][attachment=156479:prectypeuktopo battleground event Sat.png][attachment=156481:h850t850eu possible battleground Sat.png][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]A very uncertain outlook then with the threat of snowfalls right through to next weekend, however we cannot dismiss those recent model runs that suggest a thaw over next weekend instead. Overall it is expected that there will eventually be a thaw next weekend, at least for West Wales, the snow possibly lasting longer over the Midlands.[/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]--
    Follow me on Twitter [url="https://twitter.com/Lampeterweather"]@Lampeterweather[/url][/font][/color][/size]
  9. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Very wet and windy Sunday, then some rain or showers, but generally drier and and milder[/b]


    This month is going some way to easing the water shortage in parts of the UK, and will end up one of the wettest April's on record; Llanwnnen has had over 5 inches rain so far and Rugby over 4 inches. The record for Coventry is 106mm (just over 4 inches), and so with a very wet Sunday coming up, a good chance this will become the wettest April on record.

    Another low pressure system is currently winding itself up over northern Spain and is on course for south-west England, bringing moist air and plenty more rain along with strong winds for Sunday. So a thoroughly wet and windy day, the NE to east winds gusting to gale force, and the rain very heavy at times. The largest rainfall totals could well be in the Midlands with an inch likely in parts here. With all the wind and rain a very cool day, temps failing to reach just 10c or so. The rain will cease during the evening, being replaced by a few showers and the wind eases overnight.
    [attachment=133585:brack0a wet cool windy sunday.gif] [attachment=133586:Rtavn304 soggy sunday.png]

    This same low pressure sits fairly close to SW England on Monday and Tuesday so more unsettled weather, however it will be appreciably warmer than April has been with the wind coming off the Continent. Still some rain or showers about, with some heavy again, but sunny spells between, so temperatures reaching 16 to possibly 19c.
    [attachment=133587:Recm482 warmer showers Mon.gif] [attachment=133588:brack3 more rain tue.gif] [attachment=133589:Rtavn781 unsettled Tue quite warm.png]

    A ridge of high pressure then tries to build in from the north-west from Wednesday, so it's looking that it will be a mostly dry picture for several days from mid week, with sunny spells, and just the odd shower in a few places. Temperatures close to the early May average reaching 14 to 16c, although there is a chance of some low cloud feeding in off the North Sea into the MIdlands, and if this happens then temperatures will will be pegged down to just 9c there, very chilly indeed. Where skies clear overnight, there will be a frost risk, ground frost in the main, but a slight air frost cannot be ruled out.
    [attachment=133590:Rtavn1082 rudge dry mid week.png] [attachment=133591:Recm1442 week R drier Thu Fri gf.gif]

    Now, for next weekend things are shaping up for a belated cold (cool) blast of north to north-easterly winds. High pressure sets up over Greenland and with low pressure over northern Europe, an Arctic sourced air-stream affects the UK. If this happens, and it's a long way off in weather forecasting terms, then a decidedly chilly weekend in prospect with showers of rain, hail, and even sleet or snow for the high ground! Most of the showers would occur over the Midlands, with west Wales more sheltered from a north-east wind, and a better chance of dry, bright weather here. Also, any clear skies by night will see an air frost readily forming, as low as -3c in places where the wind drops off enough. By day, in spite of the sunny spells, temperatures unlikely to better 9 or 10c if this snap comes off.
    [attachment=133592:Rtavn1502 cool snap setting up fri.png] [attachment=133593:Rtavn1802 very cool northerly showers weekend.png] [attachment=133594:Rtavn18017 very cool next Sat.png] [attachment=133595:Recm1922 cool showery next wend.gif]

    So although in the main next week it will be milder than was April, we are still not out of the woods regarding notably cool weather as yet.
  10. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Rather cold, rain or showers at times; frosty at times, snow less probable.[/b]

    A reprieve from the rain last week, only 4mm falling since Monday here. As the models predicted it turned cold from mid week, and on Thursday morning Llanwnnen was colder than anywhere else in the UK getting down to -7.5c and only managing 1.8c during the day - very cold for November. Church Lawford, Warwickshire, had a minimum of -5c on Saturday morning. Turning milder early this week briefly, then generally another pretty cold week ahead, with rain or showers at times. The hint of wintriness for brief interludes on Wednesday and again Friday, but it is felt that any snow will be largely restricted to high ground, i.e. no major snow event as yet.

    After a frosty, and in places foggy start, the Midlands will have a dry, bright and cold Sunday, however cloud spreads over west Wales bringing rain eventually this afternoon. The rain then spreads to the Midlands this evening, so no frost tonight. After quite a wet night the rain has cleared most parts by dawn, then a bright and breezy day with showers in places. Due to the westerly winds and lack of heating over land now we are in Winter, it is west Wales, being adjacent to the relatively mild heat energy source of the Irish Sea, that will get most of the showers on Monday and Tuesday. For west Wales then a showery couple of days, some of these heavy with hail being quite a feature, but a drier, brighter picture for most of the Midlands, as not so many showers make it over. Milder, maxima between 6 and 8c for Monday and Tuesday, but not feeling so in the fresh wind. There could be a longer spell of rain coming over during Tuesday afternoon or evening.
    [attachment=146747:PPVI89 r cold showery Tue.png]

    The trough bringing the rain and showers early in the week clears through on Tuesday night with cold northerly winds behind it, so a possibility of showers turning to sleet or snow in places before Wednesday morning? There will in any event be a frost by Wednesday morning. A cold day on Wednesday, good sunny spells and only a few wintry showers about, mainly for NW Wales, so snow likely over Snowdonia. Only reaching 3 or 4c on Wednesday. A cold and frosty night to follow, down to -5c in places, although it may cloud over by dawn Thursday and start to lift out the frost. Further fronts from a low crossing Scotland move in from the NW during Thursday with less cold air over Wales and England again and rain at times. Maxima of 5 to 7c on Thursday, a raw, damp and chilly feeling kind of day.
    [attachment=146749:PPVL89 northerly Wed.png][attachment=146750:ecmt850.072 cold return Wed.png][attachment=146751:PPVO89 brief warm sector Thu some rain.png]

    The low moves SE into Europe on Friday and yet again we see cold north winds dragged down behind it over the UK. A frosty start to Friday, though not as cold as the highlands of Scotland where -18c is shown on a recent GFS model run over the snowfields for Friday morning! Another ridge should give a dry bright Friday, but cold with maxima only 2 to 4c. Were any showers to creep through on Friday in spite of the ridge, then these could well contain a wintry flavour, with snow for high ground. Probably another frost to follow. (Note: latest GFS run has the low much further SW and so could threaten snow to Wales and the Midlands - this is not considered the more likely outcome, but rather something to bear in mind for later in the week!)
    [attachment=146754:met.120 Fri low rain to dry colder.png][attachment=146752:ecmt850.144 second coming Fri to Sat.png][attachment=146753:ukmintemp -18c Scotland Fri.png]

    Not even going to try to predict next weekend, so varied are the signals from the models, other than it will not be mild! Mixed could sum it up though.
    [attachment=146755:ecmt850.168 mixed weekend.png]
  11. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Changeable, some rain or showers, cool down mid-week, a drier and perhaps warmer weekend[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A lovely dry and fairly sunny spell lasted until Thursday gone. We were in a cool air mass so although it felt pleasant in the strong sunshine, clear skies at night gave a run of late Spring frosts. Lowest readings include -2.9c here on Tuesday night, while Bablake, Coventry had it's lowest May reading since 1984 getting down to -0.5c, with Church Lawford just up the road managing -2c, these unusually low levels with Summer not far off! For historical comparison, here in West Wales, May 1996 saw a punishing run of often sharp frosts at Llanpumsaint, Carmarthenshire, the hardest being -4.5c on the 5th. On the 16th of the same month -4.5c was recorded in Northamptonshire (courtesy of the Climatological Observers Link). April 2013 was a cool but fairly dry month nationally, 65mm rain the total here at Llanwnnen was below average, however some areas were very dry, and Rugby recorded just 13mm for the whole month. Nothing this though compared to April 1938 when barely a drop of rain, just half a millimetre fell at Lampeter all month! Only very small amounts of rain again then in the past week but this week something more substantial in the way of rain but plenty of dry weather between times. Variable temperatures this week: Bank Holiday Monday is warm, then a cool down mid week but it could warm up again somewhat over next weekend[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Dry on Sunday afternoon bar the odd spit of drizzle for hills of West Wales, sunny spells more especially for the Midlands and where it will be quite warm. Highs on Sunday a cool 13c for coastal West Wales and 19c for brighter parts of the Midlands. Sunday night is dry with no frost. Bank Holiday Monday is actually a nice one! A slack southerly air-stream gives the highest temperatures of 2013 so far. It should also be fairly sunny, although patchy cloud affects West Wales, even some sea mist rolling onto some unfortunate beaches. A dry day for all with light winds, maxima ranging from 13c where sea mist plagues coasts, 19c inland West Wales, and a possible 21c (70f in old money) for the sunnier Midlands. Unfortunately Monday is not heralding the start of a fine, warm spell! [/size][/font]
    [attachment=170080:PPVG89 dry warm BHM.png][attachment=170081:ecmt850.048 dry warm BHM.png]

    [font=arial][size=3]Dry with clear spells Monday night, but changes begin as low pressure approaches Ireland. Cloudy with rain at times on Tuesday for West Wales, mainly light this rain; a bright start for the Midlands clouding over afternoon and threatening some rain later in the day. A bit of a cool down on Tuesday highs of 13 to 16c for West Wales, but still rather warm for the Midlands at around 18c or 19c, moderate SW winds. More active fronts arrive from the SW during Tuesday night and Wednesday, so that all parts get a welcome (?) soaking (good for the allotments and gardens). An area of heavy and perhaps thundery rain crosses south Wales and the Midlands Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Wednesday then very disturbed with showers or longer spells of rain, heavy and thundery at times, but with some sunny intervals too. ECM and UK Met Office models indicate a spell of very windy weather later on Wednesday which may bring westerly gales to exposed places also! Disappointing temperatures for Wednesday with highs between 12 and 14c generally. By Thursday the low will be close to Scotland as it starts to move away east. However, another unsettled and showery day in prospect, a cool and fresh NW wind too, but sunny spells between the showers. Hail a distinct possibility with the cool unstable air on Thursday, although hints of a ridge approaching the SW means showers should start to die out for SW Wales afternoon, perhaps even leading to a sunny evening here. Poor maxima of 10 to 13c on Thursday. Showers die out elsewhere too on Thursday night with clear periods, and there could be a ground frost with winds becoming light, lows between 2 and 5c. Friday and high pressure is attempting to ridge across southern UK so a drier theme to our weather for the end of the week. [/size][/font]
    [attachment=170082:PPVJ89 some rain cooling Tue.png][attachment=170083:PPVL89 cool windy rain and showers Wed.png][attachment=170084:ecmt850.096 very disturbed and windy cooler Wed.png][attachment=170087:h850t850eu Wed rather wet.png] [attachment=170085:h850t850eu cool showery Thu.png][attachment=170086:ecmt850.120 H close to SW FRi m dry.png]

    [font=arial][size=3]Subtle differences in the model output for next weekend, a band of high pressure will be at least close to our SW and south, but with low pressure influence also as lows track to the north of Scotland. Between high and low pressure a rather cool west to NW flow off the Atlantic. The upshot of this is that a reasonably dry but not especially warm weekend seems likely, although weak fronts may bring bands of cloud and light rain from time to time. In this scenario it would be cool and breezy. Another scenario is that the high exerts more strongly and extends across southern UK, so with a more definitely dry picture with sunny spells and higher temperatures. In the former cooler case maxima just 12 to 16c, in the latter a warmer 16 to 19c, in either case the Midlands will get the warmer conditions.[/size][/font]
    [attachment=170088:ecmt850.168 r cool weekend little rain times.png][attachment=170089:fine dry weekend.png][attachment=170090:mgram_Birmingham.png]
  12. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Mainly dry with sunny spells but rather cool with further frosts; unsettled to end the week[/b]

    Another week has passed with only small amounts of rain, 12mm falling at Llanwnnen and just 5mm at Coventry in the past 7 days. Spring 2013 is turning out quite dry thus far. The Midlands turned warm with sunshine mid week, and we even managed the one mild day here in West Wales, as Tuesday reached 16.4c in my back garden. Big temperature contrasts on Thursday as a cold front slowly edged SE, Rugby neared 19c, while West Wales was cool at 10 to 12c. There were a fair few hail showers about on both Friday and Saturday in a late Arctic northerly airflow, even with some snow over Snowdonia and the Peaks. A rather sharp frost for the very end of April last night, down to -2.6c at this location - it could have been a notably cold night were it not for cloud arriving after 2am. For the week ahead reasonably dry weather again predominates, however our air mass is still going to be pretty cool, and so although it will be feeling pleasant during sunny spells, frost is still likely overnight given clear skies and little wind.

    Sunday's patchy light rain and drizzle clears tonight to clear spells and a ground frost for many places, as low as 0c locally. Low pressure is over Scandinavia on Monday with a cool NW wind bringing sunny spells and showers, with hail in places, the Midlands seeing most of these on Monday afternoon, while parts of the West Wales coast in particular escape with a generally dry day. Cool highs on Monday of 10c for NW Wales and 12c for the Midlands. High pressure ridges in from the west on Monday night, so clearing skies leading to a widespread grass frost once more, even a slight air frost for a few spots, the coasts escaping though. This weakish ridge is over Wales and England through Tuesday, so after the cold and frosty dawn, decent sunny spells and just an isolated afternoon shower affecting a few of us. In spite of pleasant sunshine and light winds, highs still rather cool at 11c for coastal West Wales and 14c for the Midlands. Clearing skies and another frost expected on Tuesday night with little wind, unseasonably cold for the start of May down as low as -3c, although I do not expect the -5's that this mornings GFS run is showing to come to fruition...it will be May after all! FYI nights start drawing in in 8 weeks time...

    Pressure remains tentatively high across southern Britain on Wednesday, so another mostly dry and bright prospect, and further pleasant sunny spells, although it may cloud over somewhat during the afternoon with a spit of rain here and there. Highs on Wednesday a rather cool 12 or 13c for West Wales but an average 15 perhaps 16c for the Midlands. Light winds and clear spells threaten yet another frost for Wednesday night, with a widespread ground frost at the very least (ground frosts are typically still common in early May). An increasingly 'messy' look to the charts by Thursday with relatively high pressure trying to stick close to the UK, whilst at the same time slack areas of low pressure and weather fronts seem set to chip away at it threatening some rain or showers in places as we progress through the day. Nothing majorly wet is on the cards for Thursday, and no doubt some areas will remain dry again. We are still under cool upper atmospheric air for early May, so temperatures again no great shakes reaching between 13 and 16c. Probably clouding over during Thursday night which will prevent any frost from forming.

    Fair model agreement on a more definite breakdown to unsettled weather on Friday, as a developing area of low pressure lies somewhere over the UK, with its attendant rain bands and showers. Friday looks like one of those days where it could be very chilly where it stays wet, maxima say just 9c, but a more respectable 13c where it brightens. Incidentally, it could be cold enough for snow over northern hills on Friday! It all depends on where this low decides to track. Low pressure close enough to provide further showers on Saturday, but then from Sunday, a warmer, although not necessarily dry phase may be starting...although the Jury is out on whether the May Day Bank Holiday will be wet or dry!
  13. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Headline: Very cold with some snow showers, becoming less cold with some rain, night frosts[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]The prolonged dry spell has ended, although not spectacularly so, with only small amounts of rain for some of us over recent days, so only a meagre 4mm here so far this month. Llanwnnen managed 21 dry days on the trot up to last Wednesday, 3 or 4 weeks is about as long a dry spell as we can expect here in damp West Wales! Most of West Wales and the Central Midlands had a lovely sunny day though last Tuesday, West Wales being the warmest part of the UK, Trawsgoed near Aberystwyth reaching 17.5c, Llanwnnen 16c and Coventry 14c. Tuesday saw a massive daily temperature range here from a dawn low of -5.5c to the afternoon high of 16c, a 21.5c rise in just 7 hours. West Wales has had a mild week, while temperatures have struggled to reach average for the Midlands since Wednesday with all the mist and murk. Hardly any daffodils out here in time for St David's Day and it is doubtful there will be many blooming even as we reach mid March, with a big change underway during Sunday to very cold conditions for the early part of this week, and then much of the coming week remaining quite cold for March.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A raw, cloudy afternoon on Sunday with a decaying cold front over the Midlands giving light sleet or snow at times, enough for a covering in places, especially over high ground. Another front is trying to edge into SW Wales but only bringing it's rain into Pembrokeshire. Maxima of just 3c for the Midlands and 5c for West Wales. The weak front could just give a few snow flurries to parts of West Wales this evening before dying out completely, to leave a frosty night with clearing skies, although with further snow showers affecting parts of the Midlands to give a slight covering by morning in places here.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]High pressure is centred over Iceland on Monday with the low over France, a real squeeze in the isobars meaning a strong bitterly cold east wind. As the wind is strong, snow showers off the North Sea will make it across the Midlands, where there may be further slight accumulations, but the snow should not cause too many problems on Monday. A few snow showers even getting as far as West Wales, but generally dry with sunny spells here. This is the coldest incursion of air all 'Winter', but as we are now well into March, and days are longer and the sun higher in the sky, temperatures will get substantially higher than they would have with the same air in January. Still, a bitterly cold day, maxima of just 1 or 2c, and with significant windchill on Monday. Still a keen wind blows through Monday night, a really penetrating hard frost down to -4c widely, and -6c for a few. Meanwhile temperatures at 5000 feet up in the clouds will be -14c, the lowest 850hPa upper atmosphere temperatures for years.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=163744:PPVG89 Mon bitter windy snow showers.png][attachment=163745:ecmt850.048 Mon.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]On Tuesday we are between high pressure to the west and low to the east, another very cold day with a fresh NE wind. mostly dry with sunny spells, and just the odd sleet or snow shower for the Midlands, maxima of 3 to 5c. Less cold air seeps down from the north later Tuesday, so although frosty again temperatures only down to -2c or so. A lighter northerly breeze for Wednesday, sunny intervals but with some weak weather fronts moving down bringing some rain or sleet showers at times. Another cold day, maxima of 6 or 7c. Light winds and a ridge of high pressure for Wednesday night means a colder night, lows of -5c in places. Still under the ridge on Thursday so a fine and quite sunny day, but still rather cold maxima around 7c.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=163746:PPVJ89 Tues cold few showers.png][attachment=163747:ecmt850.096 m dry cold R Thu bright.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]By Friday things are changing with a low approaching NW Britain, milder SW winds with some rain at times, highs of 8 or 9c, close to the March average. This low remains over or very close to the UK next weekend so unsettled with spells of rain or showers at times, and with quite cold air within the circulation, hill snow will be a threat, so the Peak District and Welsh hills perhaps seeing further snow next weekend. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=163748:metslp.120 milder turns unsettled Fri.png][attachment=163749:h850t850eu L nearing NW UK Fri rain at times.png][attachment=163750:ecmt850.144 Fri Sat rain or showers milder L to Ire.png][/size][/font]
  14. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3]
    [b]The week gone was mixed[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The low pressure at the start of the week gave some large rainfall totals over Wales and parts of the West Midlands. In the 48 hours up to Monday evening Mumbles near Swansea had a massive 76mm (3 inches), while Hereford had 45.2mm. Monday was the coolest day at Llanwnnen since July 3rd with a cool high of just 17.7c, although the Midlands had a warmer day. Some pleasant weather after all the rain, it became quite warm with sunny spells, highest readings of the week being 22 to 24c. However there were some chilly August nights, down to 7 to 9c on a couple of nights. Funnel clouds were photographed on Wednesday afternoon, these spawned by a scattering of heavy downpours, one was observed near Brecon, and one from Cross Hands, Carmarthenshire. A funnel cloud would become a tornado if it reached the ground but these apparently did not. Tirabad, in the Cambrian hills of SW Powys, received 37mm in just 3 hours from these downpours on Wednesday, while villages just a few miles away had next to no rain. Generally though, most of us have only seen very small amounts of rain since Monday's deluges, little more than a millimetre at Coventry, for example, during these past 5 days.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    [b]The week ahead: Changeable; dry and bright at times, some rain at times, near average temperatures[/b][/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    High pressure is close enough to our south most of this coming week to weaken the fronts set to cross the UK from time to time, a generally westerly airstream, with temperatures close to the August averages, so expect highs between 18 and 23c most days, highest over the Midlands. Sunny intervals and just a few scattered showers on Sunday afternoon, highs of 18 to 21c with any showers largely dying out tonight, just a few may continue along some Welsh coasts, quite chilly down to 8 to 12c, A rather cool and showery NW flow on Monday, showers heavy in places, hail a possibility, but with some areas missing them as is usual in such set ups, some pleasant sunny intervals too, highs ranging from 17 or 18c for West Wales to 20c for the Midlands. Another cool night follows as clear spells develop, down to 7c in places but milder for West Wales coasts, nearer 12c here. A weak ridge of high pressure exerts from our SW for Tuesday but with a weak front within it producing quite a bit of cloud cover, even the odd light shower in places. Some sunny intervals on Tuesday, highs 19c for West Wales and 21c for the Midlands, so a touch warmer. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    On Wednesday a band of high pressure lies tantalisingly close to southern UK, but perhaps not quite close enough for a fine day everywhere! The Midlands most likely to manage a dry day with sunny spells on Wednesday, while weak fronts move into Wales in the afternoon threatening some rain and drizzle here, more especially later in the day. Warm with the sunny breaks for the Midlands up to 22c, but only 19c at best for cloudier West Wales. Mild SW winds and cloud for Wednesday night temperatures falling no lower than 14c. High pressure has slipped off into the Continent by Thursday, with a trough of low pressure erratically crossing the UK, bringing spells of rain, some heavy bursts in the west, although the Midlands could manage a dry morning. A rather warm, humid airmass for Thursday with SW winds, plenty of cloud but also a few sunny intervals which would readily lift temperatures to 23c, but more generally 19 or 20c where damp/ wet. Another mild night to follow with futher rain or showers in places, minima around 14c. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    Friday, and the uncertainties magnify as tends to be the case, however strong suggestions that another ridge follows the trough, so the hope at least of a fine, bright and fairly warm day! Just bear in mind that in this rather mobile Atlantic set up timings can be out at this forecasting range, and the ridge could be chased off by another trough through Friday bringing some more rain, especially to Wales, or in another synoptic evolution the ridge gets flattened off leaving a rather cloudy disappointing day with spits of rain. Next weekend and the changeable theme continues, a deep low pressure is close to Iceland with a fairly strong SW to westerly flow over the UK. Bands of rain but with dry spells between, and prospects of large amounts of rain remain low.. sprinkles rather than downpours for most then, and with temperatures continuing around the average.[/size][/font][font=arial][size=3]
    [attachment=181490:PPVG89 r cool showery Mon.png][attachment=181491:h850t850eu r cool showery Mon.png][attachment=181492:ecmt850.072 R m dry Tue to Wed.png][attachment=181501:h850t850eu wk R m dry Tue.png][attachment=181493:PPVL89 warm dry Mids little rain pm WW.png][attachment=181494:PPVO89 rain at times Thu esp WW.png][attachment=181495:metslp.120 rain from W Thu.png][attachment=181496:ecmt850.120 Tr to Wales Thu rain at times all.png][attachment=181497:ecmt850.168 DL SE Ice windy some rain weekend.png][attachment=181499:t850Warwickshire.png][attachment=181498:prcpAbertawe~-~Swansea small amounts rain this week.png][attachment=181500:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
  15. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Dry with some frost and fog to mid week; cold snap likely Friday to Sunday with wintry showers in places[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]November ended on a dry, quiet note, very little rain falling anywhere in the final week. After a rather cold start temperatures recovered to around the late November average from mid week and Saturday was sunny for most with parts of West Wales such as Milford Haven topping a rather mild 10c. Overall November 2013 was quite a dry month although parts of the West Midlands did touch average rainfall. Mean temperatures were slightly below average for November as a whole.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Rainfall totals for November 2013:

    Capel Curig, Snowdonia 155mm
    Llanwnnen, Ceredigion 111mm
    Llanelli, Carmarthenshire 110mm
    Church Lawford and Long Lawford, near Rugby 41mm
    Coventry, Warwickshire 61mm
    Little Rissington, Cotswolds 72mm

    More dry, quiet weather early in the coming week, with a cold snap quite likely for Friday and Saturday with snow showers in places, nothing prolonged as yet though.

    High pressure centred over the UK on Sunday, although not quite as intense as it was early last week when the barometer attained 1042mbar - the highest of the whole year! A lot of cloud now within the circulatiuon compared with Saturday, so sunshine at a premium on Sunday afternoon, and the cloud thick enough for a little drizzle over parts of West Wales. Fairly mild on Sunday maxima 9 to 11c with hardly any wind. Cloud may well break up somewhat after midnight leading to a fairly widespread grass frost and patchy fog. Lows just above zero generally, although where the cloud sticks nearer 4c and no fog. High pressure remains over us through Monday so another mostly dry, quiet day. Where fog has formed it could take all morning to clear and so peg back temperatures with highs below 5c if this happens, for most of us though more like 7 or 8c and there will be some sunny intervals. Clear spells overnight Monday with frost anf fog more prevalent, minima just below zero, but most coasts escaping. Again fog could be slow to clear on Tuesday morning with light winds again. Sunny intervals on Tuesday once any fog clears but some places remaining overcast. Temperatures struggling up to 6 or 7c but milder for West Wales coasts, 9c here later as a weakening front approaches from the north with attendant SW breeze. This weakening cold front gradually edges south on Tuesday night and during Wednesday. For most the cloud prevents frost from forming on Tuesday evening, but the South Midlands in particular could turn frosty after dark Tuesday provided skies are clear. A little light rain or drizzle in places for North and later West Wales for Tuesday night, some of this surviving down into the Midlands by Wednesday morning, but very patchy and insignificant amounts if at all. The front should have cleared or dissipated by Wednesday afternoon with sunny spells and highs close to the early December average of 8 or 9c, so quite a pleasant afternoon if a touch breezy. Clear periods on Wednesday evening leads to a widespread slight frost and temperatures down to around zero by midnight.

    Changes on Thursday as low pressure over Scandinavia throws down a more active cold front from the NW through the day. A bright and frosty start in places Thursday but the cloud and wind increasing through the morning ahead of the front. Rain arrives sometime afternoon accompanied by a strong NW wind making it feel cold although temperatures will reach 7 to 9c, near normal. Some heavy bursts of rain in places on Thursday afternoon or early evening, perhaps turning to sleet or snow briefly as it clears, particularly above 200m such as the Cotswolds perhaps? The front clears through early to mid evening and much colder Arctic air arrives overnight bringing wintry showers in places and also a widespread penetrating frost. Feeling bitter as the strong NW wind continues, lows not much below zero but with significant windchill. Although this cold snap for the end of the week seems likely, the models have not been unanimous over it, and so it must be mentioned here that there is still the chance that the really cold air ends up passing to our east. This guide is going for the cold affecting the UK due to the ECM model having been resolute with this outcome over its recent days output. Alternative scenarios for Friday would be a chilly high pressure over us with frost, or less cold westerly winds and some rain or showers, but here we will predict a cold snap. In fact, potentially Friday and Saturday could be very cold days with snow showers in places as temperatures at cloud level could be as low as -10c and this would mean temperatures only reaching 1 to 3c by day. Precipitation-wise, and given the cold snap these will mostly be of hail, sleet or snow and would align in streets with the NW wind, so that some areas catch plenty while adjacent areas largely miss them. Hard to guess, but areas prone to snow showers could be Snowdonia, Cardigan Bay and the West Midlands - and for these regions temporary coverings of snow cannot be ruled out, especially for higher ground. As usual in these showery situations however, some of us will be wondering what all the fuss was about come next Sunday and may have experienced a mostly dry, bright but cold couple of days! In any case high pressure is likely to reassert over southern Britain next weekend killing off the wintry showers but with severe frosts becoming more likely as winds fall light, Saturday night in particular seeing -6 or -7c locally.

    Any cold snap will be just that, as during the following week things should be turning much milder as we head towards mid December.
    [attachment=195955:PPVE89 H UK Sun.png][attachment=195956:ecmt850.072 weakening tr prevents frost Tu night.png][attachment=195957:h850t850eu Tue dry frost fog am.png][attachment=195958:PPVL89 little rain places Wed am.png][attachment=195959:ecmt850.096 m dry brightening Wed then frost eve.png][attachment=195960:PPVO89 cf pm becomes windy some rain.png][attachment=195961:metslp.120 CF Th windy rain pm.png][attachment=195962:ecmt850.120 arctic air v cold wintry showers Fri.png][attachment=195963:ecmt850.168 cold frosty m dry weekend.png][attachment=195964:h850t850eu cold dry frosty weekend H S UK.png][attachment=195965:t850Warwickshire cold snap not unanimous.png][attachment=195966:mgram_Birmingham cold snap likely Fr to Su.png][/size][/font]
  16. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][b]Headline: Unsettled with rain at times, very mild but more windy from Thursday[/b][/size][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][b]Last weeks highlights:[/b][/size][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]Last week was unsettled with near average temperatures, West Wales (WW) in particular had a wet week. Heavy rain and strong winds last Sunday night into Monday gave 25.9mm at Llanwnnen and this was the wettest day since Feb 14th (32.2mm). The cloud and rain lingered well into Monday afteroon across the East Midlands where it was a cool day, reaching just 11 or 12c. Although we were in much cooler air to start the week temperatures were still reaching around average generally though with some pleasant sunny spells between the showers. Thunder was a feature of the showers on many days last week, a twitter friend at St Clears reported thunderstorms each day from Monday to Thursday. Thunderstorms were widespread and quite frequent on Wednesday over West Wales, and a tornado occurred at Alfreton, Derbyshire, one of several to occur across England that day. Wednesday evening and night saw the thunderstorms continuing to affect West Wales, I observed almost continuous lightning, much of it brilliant and vivid during the evening and from various different directions, indeed it was one of the most outstanding electrical displays I have witnessed here! Many parts of WW had over 25mm in the 24 hours to Thursday morning, 31.6mm here being the wettest October day since 2008 (34.3mm 25/10/08). On Friday a torrential shower here at Llanwnnen produced a rainfall rate of 153.6mm/ hour, the highest my automatic weather station has logged in its 2 years, but thankfully only briefly! [/size][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][b]The week ahead[/b][/size][/font][/color]


    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][size=4]Saturday night for many was foggy with a widespread ground frost, and in a few spots such as Shobdon, Shropshire and Llanwnnen a touch of air frost as it fell marginally sub zero. The fog has been dense and persistent over the Midlands this morning but has largely cleared this midday... Sunday afternoon is fine and quite sunny if rather hazy, temperatures getting up to the average of 13 to 15c and with little wind. Low pressure moves towards southern England from the Bay of Biscay overnight, clouding over this evening and it turns wet across the Midlands by midnight and all but the NW of Wales by dawn Monday. Mostly cloudy with further rain at times through Monday, heavy bursts in places, even a rumble of thunder. A cool and quite windy day, a fresh NE wind and highs only between 10 and 13c. The exception could be Anglesey and Bardsey Island where the rain may not quite reach and temperatures nearer 14c if it remains dry here. Further rain at times, in places, even on Monday night although it should be turning lighter and patchy. This little low hangs around close to the East Anglian coast through Tuesday so a lot of cloud with a little rain or drizzle in places still, especially over the NE Midlands (Notts, Leic), while it should brighten pm over WW. Highs Tuesday 12 to 14c. Clearing skies overnight lead to local ground frost and widespread fog, lows close to 0c in the Marches and Mid Wales. [/size]

    [size=4]Changes from mid week as a deep low becomes stuck out west of Ireland, the weather remains generally unsettled with further rain at times but at least it turns a lot milder for the rest of the week with a deep, rather moist SW flow becoming established. This process begins on Wednesday so after a foggy start in places, there will be sunny intervals but it then clouds over afternoon as a trough of low pressure gradually moves NE across SW UK. This brings some spells of rain into much of Wales and the South Midlands by late afternoon or evening. Maxima Wednesday 12 to 14c so not mild just yet! Wednesday night though looks mild and cloudy with rain or drizzle at times, no lower than 9c. A broad warm sector with deep SW flow has arrived by Thursday, so its turning much milder but rather windy. Thursday also sees plenty of cloud although the Midlands brightens afternoon to some sunny intervals, while WW remains mostly cloudy with some light rain and drizzle on and off. Highs Thursday 16 to 18c, best East Midlands. Very mild and breezy with drizzle in places Thursday night no lower than 10 to 12c. [/size]

    [size=4]Friday too is rather cloudy with some light rain and drizzle about, the East Midlands more favoured for warm, sunny intervals, and it becomes windy with gale force gusts over WW. Highs Friday well above average at 17 to 19c. Next Friday night may be exceptionally mild for October with many places getting no lower than 14 or 15c! It may be turning more definitely wet across Wales through Friday night but this a long way off...Next weekend the same slow-moving low should have edged to the NW of Scotland, so it is still rather unsettled but very mild and quite windy, a lot of cloud but with a few sunny intervals. Fronts slowly crossing the UK bringing rain at times but highs should be in the mild to very mild 15 to 19c range, with nights still likely to be in double figures...so the central heating stays off![/size]
    [size=4][attachment=226894:PPVI89.png][attachment=226895:PPVK89 cloud irdo Tu.png][attachment=226896:h850t850eu L close E little rain esp Mids Tu.png][attachment=226897:ecmt850.096 some rain pm Wed.png][attachment=226898:ecmt850.120 TH FR mild rain places esp WW.png][attachment=226899:h850t850eu v mild windy little rain WW Fr.png][attachment=226900:h850t850eu WEND v mild rain times.png][attachment=226901:ecmt850.168 WEND v mild rain and wind times.png][attachment=226902:prcpWest~Midlands some rain most days.png][attachment=226903:prmslWest~Midlands sub 1010 all week.png][attachment=226904:t850West~Midlands mild from TH.png][attachment=226905:mgram_Birmingham rather unsetteld becomes vm.png][/size][/size][/font][/color]
  17. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]More rain and wind at first, then becoming mostly dry and mild [/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]The floods in the Midlands receded through the past week, as rainfall lessened, however there was still a substantial 40mm during the past week at Rugby. West Wales has had another very wet week with just over 3 inches (77mm) falling back home at Llanwnnen. All this rain has made 2012 one of the wettest years on record, Llanwnnen needs 2 inches more rain in the final two days to beat 2008 although this quantity is looking very unlikely, while for Warwickshire 2012 is probably the wettest year since 1966. We had a Green Christmas with some heavy showers and maxima around 8c. During Friday night the temperature remained above 10c over the Midlands. The New Year will see a welcome change to much drier weather, and it is also going to become mild again. Still no sign of real cold or snow on the horizon.[/size][/font]


    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Bright and breezy on Sunday with sunny intervals and showers these more especially for west Wales as usual, the chance of hail too. Cloud increases later this afternoon for west Wales as the next depression heads in, this bringing rain to all parts this evening. A mild and windy night with rain at times, some heavy for west Wales. Further fronts move across through Monday so further rain at times, possibly heavy in places, although a better chance of some dry intervals as we go through the afternoon. A mild and windy day, gale gusts possible in the morning, maxima up to around 10c. It becomes clearer and colder on Monday night with a ground frost, showers largely restricted to western coasts, so not too bad for New Year revellers!
    [attachment=150465:PPVG89 rain showers Mon.png]


    A chilly NW air stream for New Year's Day, sunny spells and some showers about, again mainly for west Wales where there could be hail.With maxima of only 6c Tuesday would be the coolest day for over a fortnight. A ridge of high pressure then gives a slight frost for Tuesday night as winds drop off, temperatures managing around zero. The rest of the week is influenced by quite an intense high pressure building over France, hence the largely dry outlook at long last! Not quite a dry picture for Wednesday however, as there are more, albeit weak, fronts coming over the top of this high, bringing cloud and some rain or drizzle in places, but none of the really wet weather such as we have experienced through December. A keen westerly breeze on Wednesday making it feel rather cold although maxima are close to the January average at 7c.
    [attachment=150466:PPVJ89 r cold some showers Tue.png][attachment=150467:ecmt850.072 Tue night R frosty.png][attachment=150468:PPVL89 Wed weak WF.png][attachment=150470:h850t850eu weakk fronts some rain after frost wed.png]

    High pressure proper by Thursday with a mild SW flow by then too, although there is likely to be a lot of cloud and only a few sunny intervals, highs of 10 or 11c. On Friday, the by now rather intense high is close to southern England, and we may have barometer readings up to 1040mbar, a level not reached since May! Needless to say another dry day, and with more in the way of sunny spells, and mild again maxima up to 10c, so a lovely day (provided the cloud shifts)! There could be enough cloud breaks on Friday night for a touch of frost in places.
    [attachment=150471:met.120 Thu dry mild cloudy.png][attachment=150472:h850t850eu HIGH pressure.png]

    The dry weather expected to last for most if not all of the weekend too, with high pressure close by to the SE. Variable cloud but with some sunshine at times, and the chance of a ground frost given sufficient cloud breaks overnight. Fairly mild with maxima of 8 to 10c. Just the possibility that fronts will encroach close enough for some rain into west Wales later on Sunday, but this may hold off until overnight.
    [attachment=150473:ecmt850.168 mild mainly dry weekend.png][/size][/font]
  18. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Headline: Continuing very unsettled, further spells of rain and localised flooding. Average to mild temperatures[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A very wet wet week gone- totals of 50mm for Coventry and 79mm at Llanwnnen, 41mm of this falling in the 24 hours to midnight last night alone at the latter. Coventry and Warwickshire in 2012 has had double the rainfall that fell in 2011, 800mm or so against 400mm or so. Llanwwnen has had a thoroughly wet 1425mm to date in 2012, but should not beat the wettest year recently (1553mm in 2008). These figures will rise a fair bit more in the final week of 2012. With nowhere to go for even modest amounts of rain, this week is bound to see flooding in the news again to varying degrees. It has turned very mild over this weekend and during last night temperaures have been up to 12 or 13c! [/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A respite from the incessant rains during Sunday but this is not going to last with the next system already making an appearance on the radar to the SW of Cornwall. A dry, mild but breezy Sunday with some sunny intervals. The next batch of rain comes from a developing wave on a long trailing front running from the English Channel to the Azores. Just how far north this gets tonight dictates how wet it will be, and also how far north the wet weather extends. West Wales looks like escaping with generally light rain tonight while the Midlands could get more signifacant falls, a further half inch or so expected to fall here, leading to additional flooding. Were the frontal wave to be 50 miles more north than predicted then this would bring SW and mid Wales into the risk of heavier rain tonight as well.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=149850:PPVE89 wave rain Sun night.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]With the main low centred west of Ireland, another unsettled day on Monday with rain or showers at times, especially for west Wales where these may contain hail. Temperatures on Christmas Eve a little above average at 8 or 9c. What of the Big Day itself! Not as much as a frost to whiten the grass while opening our presents- so not very seasonal in the tradional expectations sense. Yet another trough of low pressure moves across Wales then England bringing further showery rain at times, but at least it will not be raining non stop like on Saturday, and with sunny intervals possible between the showers to get out for a walk! Best check the rainfall radar:[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][url="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html"]http://www.metoffice...adar/index.html[/url][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][url="http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=radarv6;sess=4d42d0b0b318a682ba96ce7cede0677f"]http://www.netweathe...a96ce7cede0677f[/url][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Temperatures close to average reaching around 8c on Christmas Day. So although some rain about, this hopefully not enough to create travel difficulties on the Day itself. Enough clear intervals develping on Christmas night for a ground frost.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=149851:PPVJ89unsettled Big Day.png][attachment=149853:ecmt850.048 showery rain Xmas Day.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Boxing Day, and we have a very fleeting ridge that should give at least a dry, bright and possibly frosty morning. However the next in the never ending Atlantic train of lows is steaming towards Ireland.This is set to bring further spells of rain, heavy at times into west Wales in the afternoon, and the Midlands by evening, it will also be windy later. Some heavy showers with hail for west Wales on Boxing Day evening once the main rain passes through along with with blustery winds. Enough clear spells overnight for a ground frost in places.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=149852:PPVM89 next L Boxing Day.png][attachment=149857:viewimage more rain Boxing Day pm.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]During Thursday another of those transient little ridges crosses us, so another reprieve from the rains, but any dry weather only likely to be short-lived once more. So the possibilty of a drier interlude to get out and walk the waterlogged fields on Thursday before the next bout of wet weather! A touch colder too on Thursday maxima of 6 or 7c. The next Atlantic system is winding itself up later on Thorsday bringing more fronts in by evening or night. These get us into a warm sector with a long fetch of sub- Tropical mild SW winds which lasts through Friday. So Thursday night is one of those when it actually gets warmer rather than colder, temperatures UP to 10c by dawn on Friday. but with all this mild, moist air comes the threat of more really wet weather for Friday into Saturday. However, we may also be seing the influence of higher pressure over France on Friday, which would mean that the wet weather is restricted to west Wales, while the Midlands ecapes with just drizzle at times. A mild and windy day on Friday with temperatures reaching 12c. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=149854:PPVO89 drier R Thu.png][attachment=149858:viewimage transient R Thu.png] [attachment=149855:ecmt850.144 warm sector mild rain wind Fri.png][/size][/font][attachment=149860:viewimage end week drier Midlands rain WW.png]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]By Saturday rain will cross all parts followed by colder conditions on Sunday but as they say...this is a long way off! One near certainty is that few of us will have seen barely a snow flake throughout the whole of December. Wonder if this is set to change in the New Year?[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=149856:ecmt850.168 unsettled weekend.png][/size][/font]
  19. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    [b]Headline: Unsettled with rain and wind at times; rather cold to mild temperatures[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A decent cold snap last week. The Midlands was especially cold due to persistent freezing fog, this meant that Coventry failed to top 0c on both Tuesday and Wednesday, while at least west Wales enjoyed plenty of albeit chilly sunshine.[/size][/font][b] [/b][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Night-wise, Llanwnnen got down to -7.4c on Tuesday (not quite as low as the -7.5c recorded on November 29th), while the lowest on Wednesday night in Coventry was -5.2c and -6c at Church Lawford, Warwickshire. At least it remained largely dry through to Friday. A milder, unsettled outlook now, and this pattern could well last through to Christmas, so a White one looking very unlikely this year![/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]

    Useful websites:

    [url="http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/"]http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/[/url]
    [url="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wm/church_lawford_latest_weather.html"]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wm/church_lawford_latest_weather.html[/url]

    Ground frost in places to start off Monday. Low pressure fills up over northern Britain during Monday, which will see some showers once more for many places, although a few spots escaping. Decent sunny spells between the shower clouds coming along, with a moderate westerly breeze, and not cold. Showers die out to leave clear periods and a ground frost for Monday night as a ridge approaches the west. It could be foggy to start on Tuesday. Between lows Tuesday so a dry dry and sunny day once any fog clears, but rather cold maxima of 5 to 7c. Another frost setting in during the evening especially for the Midlands, as west Wales may start to cloud over with a strengthening wind.
    [attachment=149043:PPVG89 showers Mon.png][attachment=149044:ecmt850.072 dry chilly Tue.png]

    Active fronts from a deep Atlantic system brings mild, wet and windy weather through Wednesday and Thursday, certainly enough heavy rain to present further flooding issues in places. Temperatures reaching 10 or 11c during Thursday morning, before the cold front comes through. Rain turning more showery perhaps through Thursday afternoon. On the balance of things Friday looks a day of sunny intervals and showers, heavy in places with hail, and colder, maxima 7 or 8c, which happens to be average for mid December.
    [attachment=149045:PPVM89 mild wet windy Wed.png][attachment=149046:ecmt850.096 wet Wed to Thu.png][attachment=149048:met.120 showery colder Fri.png][attachment=149049:ecmt850.120 showery Fri.png]

    Next weekend looking mild and disturbed as further deep depressions pass to our west, bringing more bouts of heavy rain and flood risks to already saturated floodplains. As for Christmas Day? My guess is that it will see further strong winds and rain at times, and definitely no snow.
    [attachment=149050:ecmt850.168 more wind rain weekend.png][attachment=149051:Rtavn2281 Christmas Day.png][/size][/font]
  20. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Mixed; some rain, but dry spells too. temperatures around average[/b]

    This weekend's dry weather has been welcome, after rain falling on every day for almost 2 weeks here in west Wales. The Midlands on the other hand had a reasonably dry week until Thursday. A cool start to October, following on from the coolest September for almost 20 years. No real warmth again in the coming week, although as we progress through October we should not expect this really, as Summer rapidly recedes. Another week with rain at times, this though mostly for west Wales, with the Midlands having the better chance of dry days, at least up until Thursday. Wednesday is the most likely day to see widespread dry conditions across Wales and England.

    With high pressure over the UK Sunday stays fine and dry, after the early frost, just below zero here this morning. However a low pressure system is out to the south-west of Ireland (this containing the final vestiges of Nadine) so no frost tonight. The fronts from this low attempt to move into SW Britain during the early part of this week but do not make much headway against the relatively high pressure still over northern England. So cloud increasing overnight and some rain at times for west Wales after midnight, but staying dry for the Midlands. Fronts stuck over SW Britain through Monday, so a cloudy, cool day with rain or drizzle on and off, most of this probably being only light . Maxima just 11 to 13c. The far north of Wales and the north Midlands more likely to remain generally dry on Monday, so maybe escaping the rain in Bangor and Derby?
    [attachment=141258:brack0a fronts stuck over SW.gif][attachment=141259:Rtavn424 rain times cool Mon.png]

    Throughout Tuesday and Wednesday these same fronts are stuck more or less over SW England and south Wales, but with a ridge over northern, then eastern England it is anticipated that the fronts will for the most part be weak. Plenty of cloud during Tuesday and Wednesday for west Wales, a little rain or drizzle times, especially for SW Wales, with NW Wales more likely to stay dry for the most part. Likewise, the Midlands is just distant enough from the fronts to the SW to see a lot of dry weather through Tuesday and Wednesday, just the odd spot of rain really here. One proviso is that the fronts may pep up at times, or edge slightly further NE to bring some more widespread rain for a time perhaps? Temperatures close to the early October average reaching 13 or 14c for Tuesday and Wednesday, although with a better chance of brightness over the Midlands we could see 16c in places here. Frost very unlikely too with all the cloud about.
    [attachment=141260:brack1a still stuck SW R northern parts.gif][attachment=141261:Recm722 tr against R Tue to Wed.gif]

    Changes for Thursday as a deep low pressure over Iceland takes control. This sends a trough slowly east across the UK during Thursday and Friday, with rain spreading east through Thursday, and with west Wales in particular set for quite a wet, windy day. Still some brightness ahead of the rain for the Midlands, and with warmer upper atmosphere air, temperatures could get to 17c in places, although no higher than 15c for wetter west Wales.
    [attachment=141262:brack4 fronts and rain from W Thu.gif][attachment=141263:Recm962 Tr from W Thus brings rain across and milder air.gif][attachment=141264:Rtavn1204 wet Thu esp WW.png]

    This is the point where greater model uncertainty comes into play.The rain lingers into Thursday night, especially for the Midlands, but SHOULD be clear by Friday morning. Friday then a cooler day with sunny intervals and some showers, mainly over west Wales these. There is though the possibility that the trough develops a low close to eastern England during Friday, which could keep the rain going longer for the Midlands. Temperatures only 10 to 12c for Friday at best. All that can be said about next weekend is that one way or another the outcome appears unsettled with some further rain at times and most likely on the cool side.
    [attachment=141265:Recm1202 Tr over E by Fri.gif][attachment=141266:Rtavn1321 cool rain to few showers Fri.png][attachment=141267:Rtavn1441 lingering low Sat.png][attachment=141268:Rtavn1681 unsettled weekend.png][attachment=141269:Recm1682 unsettled weekend.gif]
  21. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Very unsettled, plenty of rain, and often quite cool[/b]

    The long fine and very warm spell is over, however fairly warm and humid air lingered until this weekend here in west Wales. While Rugby only reached 14c in cool drizzly conditions on Saturday, Llanwnnen managed a humid 23c. June is ushering in with a very unsettled, low pressure dominated and none too warm outlook.

    May taken overall had slightly above normal temperatures, the statistics masking the heat towards the month end. Llanwnnen was on the dry side with just 53mm of rain, while Rugby had 56mm which is average for there. This was the third month in a row that Rugby has had more rain than Llanwnnen, a complete reversal of the norm!

    A very wet night and morning across the Midlands, with an inch of rain having fallen already in places there, more drizzly for west Wales. More rain and drizzle at times for the rest of Sunday, and a very cool afternoon for the Midlands, just 11 to 13c the highs. The rain clears away overnight.

    A little bump of high pressure follows the low for Monday, so hopefully a mostly dry and bright Spring Bank Holiday, just the chance of a few showers for the Midlands. A rather cool day reaching just 17c or so. A clear, chilly Monday night to follow a pleasant enough day, although as we are now into 'Summer' no ground frost is expected.

    The next frontal system is waiting in the wings of the south-west Tuesday morning, and rain and drizzle arrives in west Wales by lunchtime, set to spoil any Jubilee celebrations here, while the Midlands may remain dry until later in the afternoon. Temperatures on the cool side again for the Jubilee with all the cloud, maxima just around 16c.
    [attachment=134966:brack1a Jubilee spoiler.gif] [attachment=134967:Rtavn604 damp Jubilee afternoon.png]

    A very low pressure dominated theme Wednesday onwards, as systems move slowly in from the Atlantic to cross the UK. Difficult to pin down timings of longer spells of rain, as well as just how wet each day will turn out. Suffice to say plenty of showers and longer periods of rain, heavy at times. Wednesday looks an essentially sunshine and showers day, these heavy at times with thunder possible. The modelling currently suggests an especially wet spell on Thursday or Friday as a large low containing plenty of moist, warm air slowly moves into the UK. With this air type some thundery showers, even thunderstorms, could also be a feature later in the week, more especially for the Midlands - as is usually the case. In any sunny intervals on Thursday or Friday feeling humid and warmer, potentially up to 21c, but if cloudy and wet then just 18c at best.
    [attachment=134968:brack2a showery wed.gif] [attachment=134969:Recm722 big flabby low wed showery.gif] [attachment=134973:Rtavn844 showery wede.png][attachment=134970:brack4 wet windy thur.gif] [attachment=134971:Rtavn1082 humid wet thu.png] [attachment=134972:Recm1202 wet spells thu to fri.gif] [attachment=134974:Rukm1201 low stuck end week rain showers.gif]

    Even as far out as next weekend, it's looking very unsettled with further rain or showers at times and still rather cool. All in all, by this time next week we should all have had a good soaking, a further two inches of rain falling in places this week.
    [attachment=134975:Rtavn1501 still unsettled next wend.png] [attachment=134976:Recm1682 still very unsettled next wend.gif]
  22. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Headline: Cold, sunny and frosty to mid week. Unsettled and turning less cold, with rain at times from Thursday (outside chance of snow in places)[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A mixed, unsettled and quite cold week gone, almost two inches of rain falling here. Few places saw more than a few flakes of snow during the week, and it looks as though this theme SHOULD continue. However, were I typing this guide last Thursday I would have been warning about an upcoming very cold, almost Siberian week ahead, with snow in places! During Friday this previous model consencus underwent a massive turnaround so that we are now looking at no more than a more run of the mill dry and cold snap, with milder and wet weather eventally to end the week (so ignore the dire warnings of an impending Ice Age from the likes of the Daily Express!).[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Fairly mild and quite windy this (Sunday) afternoon with light rain and drizzle on and off as a weak cold front moves down from the north. Skies clear tonight leading to a slight frost as the wind drops off after midnight. High pressures ridges down from the north during Monday, so after a frosty start it's a dry and bright day with decent sunny spells. There will be a cold NE breeze with maxima generally only 3 to 5c, but milder on the west Wales coast up to 7c here. Clear skies Monday night, with quite a hard frost, down to -4c in places, with local fog patches also forming. The high slowly sinks south over the UK on Tuesday which is another cold and dry day. Mostly sunny then for Tuesday, a lovely crisp, cold Winter's day with highs of just 2 to 4c, so the frost persisting all day in the shade. Perhaps even colder for Tuesday night, minima between -4 and -6c widely away from coasts, and again a few fog patches in places by the morning. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=148132:PPVG89 (1) R from N cold sunny Mon.png][attachment=148133:PPVK89 hard frost Tue night.png][attachment=148134:ecmt850.048 cold frost sunny Tue.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]On Wednesday the high edges away into the near Continent as a trough of low pressures heads in from the Atlantic. A dry, sunny but very frosty morning on Wednesday, and probably staying this way all day over the Midlands, but west Wales may cloud over during the afternoon. A very cold raw day, temperatures struggling to get above freezing for the Midlands and only managing 2 or 3c for west Wales. Patchy rain, with perhaps hill snow reaches west Wales through the evening and could spread to the Midlands overnight. With the ground frozen by the time any rain arrives to the Midlands this could well freeze on impact- so that first thing Thursday may be very icy underfoot here. Milder air over west Wales should prevent this from happening here.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Quite a high degree of variety in the model output Thursday onwards, with differences in the extent and alignment of the 'attack' of the low to the west, which means that subtle differences make a big difference to the actual weather, which begs questions such as: how far the milder air progresses? how quickly? wind direction southerly milder, or SE cold. Such are the differences between rain and snow! It was looking as though south to SW winds would get less cold air across the UK by Friday, but the some of the latter model runs have a different tilt to the trough resulting in cold SE winds off the Continent for Thursday, a sign of the block re-asserting perhaps?[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Low pressure is then modelled to stay out west of the UK over the nearby Atlantic right through the end of the week and into next weekend even, prevented from getting further by the cold block over Scandinavia. Thursday looks a cold, raw day with further rain and drizzle, and possibly even sleet in places. Maxima between 3 and 5c as the milder air really struggles to cross the country. More active fronts look set to push into the cold air (IF it manages to hang on?) on Thursday night into Friday, this poses the risk of a spell of sleet or snow early on Friday, before turning to rain as the milder air wins out. However this is by no means the only option for the end of the week, and alternative scenarios are that some places get a good dumping of snow on Friday (obviously more likely for the hills in the north of our regions), or indeed the mild pushes through more effortlessly so we just get the usual wind and rain from the weather fronts? We will see![/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=148135:PPVO89 some rain less cold Thu.png][attachment=148136:ecmt850.120 cold SE flow Fri snow to rain.png][attachment=148137:h850t850eu rain Fri.png][attachment=148138:Rukm1441 L Fri night snow threat.gif][attachment=148139:ecmt850.168 SW flow less cold unsettled weekend.png][attachment=148140:h850t850eu unsettled weekend.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Continuing unsettled but less cold next weekend, further rain at times, but with drier spells too, so that frost remains a possibilty at night should skies clear. [/size][/font]
  23. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Unsettled, rain and strong winds at times; average to mild temperatures[/b]

    Most places reached 13 or 14c mid week, well above the mid November average (10c). Llanwnnen saw the highest reading of the month (13c) on Tuesday afternoon soon followed by the lowest (-1.6c) on Thursday morning. This was due to the importation of less mild Continental air late on Wednesday bringing clearing skies which caused all the fog and local frost on Thursday. It was notable how thick was the fog on the Bablake School, Coventry webcam even into Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile Aberystwyth had a lovely sunny and mild Thursday - big contrasts on that day as Lampeter remained mainly cloudy and cool. A reasonably dry week until the rain Friday evening and night. Plenty of rain in the coming week, heavy at times for west Wales, where a couple of inches is set to fall during the week. Temperatures on the mild side until it cools off by Friday, with frosts likely to be a feature over the weekend again.

    A hard frost last night, the coldest of the season to date, down to -5.2c in this particular frost hollow, and colder than any of the official stations in the UK! A fine, fairly sunny afternoon as we are under this transient ridge of high pressure. Atlantic fronts are approaching as witnessed by an increasing veil of high Cirrus cloud through the afternoon which makes the sunshine more hazy over west Wales. So with increasing cloud and breeze this evening means no frost bar a brief touch for parts of the Midlands possibly. Rain and drizzle from later evening for west Wales lasting through to Monday morning, the rain not reaching the Midlands until the end of the night. The cold front brings a period of heavier rain with strong winds through west Wales tomorrow morning and onto the Midlands in the afternoon, this clearing west Wales to a few afternoon showers and sunny intervals. Temperatures reaching a fairly mild 10 to 12c during Monday afternoon.
    [attachment=144809:PPVG89 Mon CF rain and wind.png]

    From Tuesday through to Thursday we are influenced by a complex of lows close by to our west and north. This means a fairly mild and windy spell, with rain fronts never far away. Tuesday sees active fronts crossing all parts, with spells of rain and strong winds again, but as the winds are southerly we are in a mild air mass, maxima of 13 or 14c. The rain should clear by Tuesday night, then a bit of a respite from the rain during Wednesday and Thursday for the Midlands at least. This is due to a ridge of high pressure nosing towards eastern England and holding the fronts out west. This means that the rain fronts will be slow moving somewhere over western parts mid week. The wet zone was being predicted across west Wales, however this has trended further west over Ireland. There is then still the threat of wet weather edging in from time to time over west Wales during Wednesday and Thursday, although probably not the washout that was previously modelled. A stab at Wednesday and Thursday would be mostly cloudy and windy for west Wales with some rain and drizzle at times, this perhaps turning heavy at times, more especially over Pembrokeshire, where there could be localised flooding. For the Midlands a fairly dry but rather windy couple of days, plenty of cloud, but the sun managing to break through from time to time, and also the possibility of a little drizzle in places too. Continuing on the mild side for all areas, maxima between 10 and 12c with night frosts very unlikely.
    [attachment=144810:PPVJ89 very unsettled mild windy Tue.png][attachment=144811:ecmt850.048 rain bands mild wind mon Tue.png][attachment=144812:h850t850eu respite Wed.png][attachment=144813:PPVO89 rain W dry E Thu.png][attachment=144814:ecmt850.096 rain west dry east Thu.png]

    Finally, by Thursday night and Friday, the trough is slowly making its way across the UK bringing rain bands or showers to all parts, some of these heavy especially in the west. Lighter winds and a cooler feel for Friday, maxima of 8 to 10c. With clearing skies on Friday night a ground frost is likely.
    [attachment=144815:met.120 Tr makes it Thu night.png]

    The usual uncertainty by next weekend, our trough should have either weakened or edged away east by Saturday, allowing high pressure into the south. Tentatively then - another largely dry, rather cool and bright interlude for next weekend. Decent sunny intervals and just a few showers about, with frosty nights is how it's looking at the moment. There is though the alternative hypothesis that this could change to a continued unsettled outlook such is the range of possibilities on offer at this range.
    [attachment=144816:h850t850eu weekend R.png][attachment=144817:ecmt850.168 rather unsettled again weeknd.png]
  24. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Drier than of late, still some showers; rather warm mid week. Unsettled end to week.[/b]

    A slight respite from the cool, wet weather for a few days last week, particularly for west Wales. During Tuesday and Wednesday, we enjoyed some warm sunny spells raising temperatures to an average 19c. There were, however, very heavy showers about on these days too, but Llanwnnen missed the worst of these. I experienced a torrential shower just 2 miles from home on Tuesday afternoon, and another even heavier downpour in Carmarthen on Wednesday afternoon, but my rain gauge measured only around 1mm on each of these days. This shows how variable rainfall is in showery set ups.


    The rains were heavy and widespread again for the latter part of the week, especially for Wales, and as I type it has rained for most of the past 48 hours, with well over 2 inches (55mm) having fallen on my garden since Thursday afternoon. We are only half way through June, and it's already one of the wettest on record for west Wales, with 140mm having fallen on Llanwnnen. Not so far off the wettest June here which was 186mm in 2007, so 2012 is almost certain to take that particular crown here in Ceredigion. At least no repeat of the severe flooding of last weekend, with the Aberystwyth area escaping the worst of it this time. A very wet month in the MIdlands also, almost 4 inches so far for Coventry.

    A rather changeable week ahead, but also with decent dry spells. In any sunny spells it will feel quite warm, so an improvement on what June has given us thus far, but that is not saying anything!

    The deep low pressure that has brought all this rain and wind these past 48 hours has finally exited the UK into the North Sea by Sunday morning. We then spend several day's in a No Man's Land of atmospheric pressure, which is slack, and neither particularly high nor low. This is the kind of complicated set up where almost anything can happen, so don't be surprised to experience some warm sunshine early to mid next week, but also some heavy showers again. Up until Wednesday, neither low nor high pressure really wins out, so uncertainty with the actual weather this set up will produce?

    Just a few showers still about on Sunday, and a small low feature may develop enough to bring rain to southern parts on Sunday night, but for most a much drier spell ahead. Plenty of mostly dry weather should sum up Sunday to Wednesday then, but with scattered showers, some heavy, affecting most places sooner or later, but probably no prolonged spells of rain, although these can sometimes develop at short notice from such situations. Temperatures gradually improving and feeling warm in the sunny spells mid week. Still on the cool side though for Sunday and Monday, maxima just 16 to 19c. A touch warmer though for Tuesday and Wednesday, into the low 20's for many, especially in the MIdlands. Some chilly nights coming up though, but probably not quite cold enough for ground frosts.
    [attachment=135469:brack1a No Mans Land Mon.gif] [attachment=135470:Recm722 NML Tue few showers.gif] [attachment=135471:brack3 L winning Tue.gif] [attachment=135472:Rtavn781 slack showers Tue.png] [attachment=135473:brack4 H winning Wed.gif]

    A great deal of uncertainty in the models for what follows a fairly uncertain period in any case! It looks as though, for a while at least, a more definite unsettled theme takes over, as low pressure closes in on north-western UK. More rain and showers look likely for Thursday and Friday, and it turns cooler and breezy once more. However some signs in two of the main models of high pressure over the UK next weekend, which would mean a fine, warm interlude. Don't count on this yet though...the ECM model paints a very unsettled picture for next Friday and the weekend, with low pressure firmly in control again. The jury is then still out for next weekend!
    [attachment=135474:Rtavn1261 L NW of Ire Thu rain later.png] [attachment=135475:Recm1442 L Ire FRi more rain showers cool.gif] [attachment=135476:Rukm1441 H building Fri poss.gif] [attachment=135477:Rtavn1741 H Sat optimistic.png] [attachment=135478:Recm1922 unsettled next weekend and cool.gif]
  25. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Unsettled, more rain or showers at times, temperatures close to average. Looking dry next weekend.[/b]

    Although overall April 2012 was the wettest on record for the UK, this was not the case at Coventry where the final amount fell just 2mm short of the all time record of 106mm, nor for Ceredigion, with Llanwnnen receiving 126mm rain compared with the 186mm that fell on Lampeter in April 1998. However, Rugby had almost three times the April average with 129mm falling, and probably a local record amount. All very welcome given the long term rainfall deficit and drought orders, but some drier weather would not go amiss given the flooding that has occurred in places!

    Some very cool weather about at times during the past week just gone; on Thursday Rugby reached just 7c, which is 8c below the early May average figure. However, although the cool northerly snap did arrive as predicted for this weekend, with snow showers in parts of Scotland and northern England, the light winds and some sunshine meant it actually has not felt too bad here in west Wales and we managed 10c to 12c maximum temperatures and stayed mostly dry on Saturday, and were also spared the frosts that some other areas have had.

    Low pressure is set to spoil the May Day Bank Holiday, with a mostly cloudy morning and rain at times, this becoming more showery during the afternoon, some of these heavy. By Tuesday the low is over Scotland, so more showers or even a longer spells of rain, but with sunny intervals between. Temperatures a little below average so reaching 13-15c. Skies clear on Tuesday night, so a ground frost possible in places.
    [attachment=133886:brack0a mon low.gif]

    Wednesday should see a respite and may well turn out generally dry for most places with some sunshine too, so a little warmer up to 17c or so. A bit of a tight squeeze however, with the next low system waiting in the wings to the south-west and bringing more rain later on Wednesday, and more especially for Thursday. A mild night on Wednesday temperatures staying above 10c. This large complex low is then tracking across the UK on Thursday, so potentially a very wet day, with a flood risk in places. The rain should become more showery as the day progresses, especially to the south. Where it brightens up later in the day, it will become warm and humid up to 20c, which in turn will cause some heavy and thundery showers to develop. However, where it remains cloudy and wet only reaching 14c or so. It could be quite a windy day too depending on the exact track of the low, although if it decides to cross Wales then not so windy. The low track will also determine whether the warm conditions reach our areas or not?
    [attachment=133887:Recm722 respite poss gf tue night.gif] [attachment=133888:brack3 respite wed.gif] [attachment=133893:Rtavn782 squeeze wed drier or not.png][attachment=133889:Recm962 next low wed night.gif] [attachment=133890:brack4 complex L very wet thu.gif] [attachment=133891:Rtavn964 wet start thu.png] [attachment=133892:Rtavn1021 thu low.png]

    Previous recent model runs were indicating that southern parts would be getting a brief but very warm blip on Friday, up to 25c in places! Now though this is looking much less likely, with the warm sector of the low soon swept away east into Europe. So, the end of the week looks like drying out with a better weekend in prospect. Quite a cool and breezy day for Friday first though, with some showers still knocking about. High pressure builds across Wales and England just in time for the weekend so it may well be a dry, fine one. Not especially warm, maxima around 16c probably, and still a ground frost chance by night, but a pleasant enough weekend given what the weather models are predicting at the moment.
    [attachment=133894:Rtavn1321 drying up fri.png] [attachment=133895:Rukm1441 drying out Fri.gif] [attachment=133897:Rtavn1561 weekend high dry.png]
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