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TonyH

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  1. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Unsettled, rain and showers, heavy at times, with warm, drier intervals between[/b]

    A mostly dry and warm week just gone, Llanwnnen reached 80f on Friday. Flashes of lightning here last night , but the thunderstorms stayed in the distance. A good dose of rain to come this week, especially for west Wales, but with warm, sunny intervals between times, these more likely for the Midlands. However, dry days at a premium in the coming week.

    A rather warm and humid Sunday afternoon, with some showers, and thunder possible for parts of the Midlands too. Low pressure is approaching the south- west of Ireland tonight bringing rain into west Wales. Further rain at times on Monday morning for Wales, this moving east into the Midlands in the afternoon. Brighter with some showers about for Wales in the afternoon, and eventually brightening over the Midlands too. Temperatures near the August average reaching 20 - 22c.
    [attachment=138251:brack0a (1) Mon rain to some showers.gif]

    A complex area of low pressure to our west then controls the weather throughout the rest of the coming week. At least this means generally southerly winds and so not a cool week. However plenty of rain and showers to come, especially for the west. Tuesday is a straightforward mix of sunshine and showers, these heavy in places, but some places missing them altogether. A warm front brings some drizzle and a warm sticky night to follow. Quite a deep low develops over Ireland on Wednesday which could well turn out a wet and windy day, some quite large rainfall totals possible for west Wales. Temperatures suppressed where it stays wet, no higher than 20c, but warm and humid should it brighten over the Midlands. Another day of sunshine and showers for Thursday, these widespread and very heavy in places, with some thunderstorms about too. Temperatures again around average.
    [attachment=138252:brack2a DL wet windy Wed.gif][attachment=138253:Recm962 DL Ire wet windy Wed.gif][attachment=138254:Rtavn841 DL S Ire Wed.png][attachment=138255:brack4 showery breezy Thu.gif][attachment=138256:Rtavn1022 unsettled windy Thu.png]

    During Friday we get another push of warm and humid air across the UK, with some further rain at times, especially once more for west Wales, and perhaps thundery in nature? A rather warm, humid day into the low 70's f. Next weekend also looking warm but unsettled, further rain or showers for many of us.
    [attachment=138257:Rtavn1322 warm push Fri some rain esp west.png][attachment=138258:Recm1442 warm plume Fri.gif][attachment=138259:Rtavn15617 poss warm plume weekend.png][attachment=138260:Recm1682 warm unsettled weekend.gif]
  2. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Unsettled with rain or showers at times; mild mid week then cooler and perhaps drier, some frost[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Another wet week gone but at least it became much drier from Thursday. Thunder and lightning occurred early in the week in the showers especially for Wales, here in the Lampeter area both Monday and Tuesday had overhead storms with some hail. Unusually January so far has witnessed 3 thunder days, for comparison during the whole of 2013 thunder was audible on just 4 days! Mild for the most part too last week, although some frosts since mid week, down to -2.3c here on Thursday night, the lowest reading since November and again Saturday night (-2.5c). Saturday was a lovely day with plenty of sunshine followed by a frosty night, virtually everywhere inland getting below zero for a change this Winter, lowest readings include Benson, Oxon -4.6c, Hereford -4.2c and Trawscoed at -3.5c. Winter 2013/14 has been very mild as we reach it's mid point this week, many places yet to see as much as a flake of snow! No prolonged dry spell as yet showing with low pressure dominating this week close to the UK. Never especially cold and so another week with very minimal snow risk.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A bright Sunday morning for the East Midlands but it has become cloudy and breezy elsewhere as weather fronts spread over from the west. Rain reaches West Wales early this afternoon spreading to the Midlands around sunset where it will have been a cloudy afternoon ahead. Freshening southerly winds through this afternoon into this evening along with the rain. Rain clears around midnight to leave some coastal showers out west, lows of 2 or 3c so localised grass frost. A bright and dry Monday morning for many but a showery trough moves into West Wales early afternoon this spreading showers east to the Midlands eventually by dusk, some heavy showers with hail possible. Highs a little above the mid January average at 7 or 8c on Monday afternoon. Showers largely dying out overnight and with light winds and clearing skies a widespread slight frost, down to -2c in places, still the odd shower for Welsh coasts however. A bright frosty dawn on Tuesday and for the Midlands a little bump of high pressure should mean a dry, bright day as well. A few showers about from the off for West Wales along with sunny intervals, but increasing cloud brings patchy light rain and drizzle afternoon, this spreading to the Midlands after dark. We are in a warm sector by Tuesday evening and so temperatures on the rise reaching 9 or 10c over Pembrokeshire and 6c for the East Midlands by midnight after a chilly day. A rather wet and windy but mild night to follow with the SW winds gusting gale force over coasts and hills of Wales, and where there will be heavy rain at times. Low pressure centred quite close to Ireland during Wednesday and associated fronts could be dragging their heels somewhere across Wales or England, so potentially a thoroughly wet day for certain regions as yet to be confirmed, this not helping flooding issues as the ground is saturated to capacity. A fresh SW wind through Wednesday but mild highs of around 10c. The more general rain should be clearing on Wednesday night leaving a few showers scattered about.

    Low pressure is stuck just to our NW to end the week, it's eastward progress blocked by a large cold anticyclone over Scandinavia, and so the unsettled theme continues towards the weekend. Thursday perhaps one of those days where Wales tends to catch the showers, hail in these, but the Midlands due to the SW or west flow is in the 'rain shadow' of the Welsh hills and escapes largely dry and bright? A more pronounced trough may however crop up overriding topographical factors and bring some showers across most places afternoon. Highs still quite mild at around 8c. Showers and breezes should decrease overnight Thursday for at least a ground frost to occur. down close to zero. Again probably no washout on Friday, but troughs in our vicinity, and so some showers should be expected along with sunny intervals, but, as is often the case, some areas remaining dry. Reasonable highs of 6 to 8c on Friday. A messy set up next weekend, neither low nor high gaining overall dominance, and so best that can be surmised is some decent dry spells, yet also the threat of some rain or showers at times too, Saturday perhaps the best chance of a dry, bright day. Light winds much of the weekend so any clearances overnight readily producing frost as we are not in mild air next weekend. Nothing suggests any snow during the coming week bar a little on the higher peaks. [/size][/font]
  3. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][b]Headline: Unsettled with rain at times, very mild but more windy from Thursday[/b][/size][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][b]Last weeks highlights:[/b][/size][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]Last week was unsettled with near average temperatures, West Wales (WW) in particular had a wet week. Heavy rain and strong winds last Sunday night into Monday gave 25.9mm at Llanwnnen and this was the wettest day since Feb 14th (32.2mm). The cloud and rain lingered well into Monday afteroon across the East Midlands where it was a cool day, reaching just 11 or 12c. Although we were in much cooler air to start the week temperatures were still reaching around average generally though with some pleasant sunny spells between the showers. Thunder was a feature of the showers on many days last week, a twitter friend at St Clears reported thunderstorms each day from Monday to Thursday. Thunderstorms were widespread and quite frequent on Wednesday over West Wales, and a tornado occurred at Alfreton, Derbyshire, one of several to occur across England that day. Wednesday evening and night saw the thunderstorms continuing to affect West Wales, I observed almost continuous lightning, much of it brilliant and vivid during the evening and from various different directions, indeed it was one of the most outstanding electrical displays I have witnessed here! Many parts of WW had over 25mm in the 24 hours to Thursday morning, 31.6mm here being the wettest October day since 2008 (34.3mm 25/10/08). On Friday a torrential shower here at Llanwnnen produced a rainfall rate of 153.6mm/ hour, the highest my automatic weather station has logged in its 2 years, but thankfully only briefly! [/size][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][b]The week ahead[/b][/size][/font][/color]


    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][size=4]Saturday night for many was foggy with a widespread ground frost, and in a few spots such as Shobdon, Shropshire and Llanwnnen a touch of air frost as it fell marginally sub zero. The fog has been dense and persistent over the Midlands this morning but has largely cleared this midday... Sunday afternoon is fine and quite sunny if rather hazy, temperatures getting up to the average of 13 to 15c and with little wind. Low pressure moves towards southern England from the Bay of Biscay overnight, clouding over this evening and it turns wet across the Midlands by midnight and all but the NW of Wales by dawn Monday. Mostly cloudy with further rain at times through Monday, heavy bursts in places, even a rumble of thunder. A cool and quite windy day, a fresh NE wind and highs only between 10 and 13c. The exception could be Anglesey and Bardsey Island where the rain may not quite reach and temperatures nearer 14c if it remains dry here. Further rain at times, in places, even on Monday night although it should be turning lighter and patchy. This little low hangs around close to the East Anglian coast through Tuesday so a lot of cloud with a little rain or drizzle in places still, especially over the NE Midlands (Notts, Leic), while it should brighten pm over WW. Highs Tuesday 12 to 14c. Clearing skies overnight lead to local ground frost and widespread fog, lows close to 0c in the Marches and Mid Wales. [/size]

    [size=4]Changes from mid week as a deep low becomes stuck out west of Ireland, the weather remains generally unsettled with further rain at times but at least it turns a lot milder for the rest of the week with a deep, rather moist SW flow becoming established. This process begins on Wednesday so after a foggy start in places, there will be sunny intervals but it then clouds over afternoon as a trough of low pressure gradually moves NE across SW UK. This brings some spells of rain into much of Wales and the South Midlands by late afternoon or evening. Maxima Wednesday 12 to 14c so not mild just yet! Wednesday night though looks mild and cloudy with rain or drizzle at times, no lower than 9c. A broad warm sector with deep SW flow has arrived by Thursday, so its turning much milder but rather windy. Thursday also sees plenty of cloud although the Midlands brightens afternoon to some sunny intervals, while WW remains mostly cloudy with some light rain and drizzle on and off. Highs Thursday 16 to 18c, best East Midlands. Very mild and breezy with drizzle in places Thursday night no lower than 10 to 12c. [/size]

    [size=4]Friday too is rather cloudy with some light rain and drizzle about, the East Midlands more favoured for warm, sunny intervals, and it becomes windy with gale force gusts over WW. Highs Friday well above average at 17 to 19c. Next Friday night may be exceptionally mild for October with many places getting no lower than 14 or 15c! It may be turning more definitely wet across Wales through Friday night but this a long way off...Next weekend the same slow-moving low should have edged to the NW of Scotland, so it is still rather unsettled but very mild and quite windy, a lot of cloud but with a few sunny intervals. Fronts slowly crossing the UK bringing rain at times but highs should be in the mild to very mild 15 to 19c range, with nights still likely to be in double figures...so the central heating stays off![/size]
    [size=4][attachment=226894:PPVI89.png][attachment=226895:PPVK89 cloud irdo Tu.png][attachment=226896:h850t850eu L close E little rain esp Mids Tu.png][attachment=226897:ecmt850.096 some rain pm Wed.png][attachment=226898:ecmt850.120 TH FR mild rain places esp WW.png][attachment=226899:h850t850eu v mild windy little rain WW Fr.png][attachment=226900:h850t850eu WEND v mild rain times.png][attachment=226901:ecmt850.168 WEND v mild rain and wind times.png][attachment=226902:prcpWest~Midlands some rain most days.png][attachment=226903:prmslWest~Midlands sub 1010 all week.png][attachment=226904:t850West~Midlands mild from TH.png][attachment=226905:mgram_Birmingham rather unsetteld becomes vm.png][/size][/size][/font][/color]
  4. TonyH
    [size=4][font=arial][b][b]Headline: Mostly dry with sunny spells, becoming very warm but local thunderstorms; cooler unsettled weekend[/b] [/b][/font][/size]

    [size=4][font=arial][color=rgb(0,0,0)]Although there were some showers last week, overall it was another reasonably dry week. Tuesday saw fairly widespread showers, but even then some areas missed them completely, not so the Aldridge area of the West Midlands where there torrential thunderstorms caused quite serious but highly localised flooding. Temperatures close to average although rather cool at times early last week with the NW breeze. The East Midlands narrowly escaped a soaking on Thursday, with the nearby Fenlands having a cool wet day, while places such as Leicester and Nottingham just 40 miles west had a warm sunny one! Highs on a generally warm Thursday then included 24.7c at Pershore, 24.3c Church Lawford and 22.5c Mumbles. Saturday was the warmest day of the year so far over much of the Midlands, with maxima between 24 and 26c, West Wales in contrast was cloudy and drizzly with temperatures below 20c. Noticeably milder by night this weekend, it has not dropped below 12c in most places, and last night some spots stayed above 15c.[/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]It has cooled off for today Sunday, but the warmth is set to return this week, especially over the Midlands where 27c 81f is likely come Thursday, but we get some thunderstorms in places before it cools off in time for the weekend. Sunday afternoon and a scattering of showers over the Midlands, but mostly dry for West Wales with sunny intervals. Highs between 18 and 21c. Dry and fresher tonight minima around 10c. A transient ridge of high pressure moves away during Monday with weak fronts moving into Wales, this means a largely dry day with sunny intervals for the Midlands and maxima around 22c, so quite warm here, but after a bright start clouding over for West Wales (WW) even with a little rain or drizzle about during the late afternoon and evening, highs nearer 19 or 20c here. High pressure building to our south on Tuesday but still some weak weather fronts to contend with. Variable cloud as a consequence of these fronts and perhaps the odd spot of rain or even shower popping off, but with sunny breaks developing as we go through the day. Temperatures a rather humid 21 or 22c, even a 24c where decent sunny spells occur. A mild night to follow, no lower than 13c. [/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]A decent ridge of high pressure over southern Britain on Wednesday which is another largely dry day, more in the way of sunshine too, so a warm day everywhere, highs between 22 and 25c, best for the Midlands, and cooler along some coasts with sea breezes. Thursday could be the warmest day of the week with a drag of very warm, humid air from off the Continent. Plenty of sunshine and temperatures responding well with the ambient heat, so maxima in the 24 to 28c range, hottest over the Midlands. Some sharp showers and localised thunderstorms breaking out later in the day and especially for the evening as a heat low approaches from Spain or France. Some of us seeing flashes of lightning or catching a storm then during Thursday night, along with some very heavy bursts of rain. Quite a sticky night too, no lower than 15c for towns, cities and some coasts. [/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]The storms may not have succeeded in clearing the air though as it looks like another warm or very warm day on Friday. There will be sunny spells and some further showers and thunderstorms, but some places escape dry as is typical in showery set ups. Highs somewhere between 22 and 27c on Friday. It does though cool down by Saturday and the weekend looks quite unsettled with low pressure close by our NW, so cooler and breezy with showers and some longer spells of rain. Still rather warm for the Midlands perhaps next Saturday but rather cool everywhere by Sunday highs of 18 to 21c. Looking further out and the rest of July appears somewhat unsettled too but warm at times, so not so bad![/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218551:PPVG89 dry warm Mids drizzle pm WW MON.png][attachment=218552:PPVJ89 m dry sunny ints TU r warm.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218553:ecmt850.072 H builds over S TU.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218554:PPVL89 m dry warm WE.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218555:ecmt850.096 m dry warm We.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218556:PPVO89 very warm TH.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218561:ukmaxtemp very warm or hot TH.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218557:ecmt850.120 hot humid thundery showers later TH to FR.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218558:ecmt850.144 warm showery FR.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218559:h850t850eu warm showery FR.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218560:ecmt850.168 weekend cooler showers lsr.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218562:prcpWarwickshire unsettled FR SA.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218563:prmslWarwickshire more unsettled by next weekend.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218564:t850West~Midlands mostly a warm week.png][attachment=218565:mgram_Birmingham.png][/color][/color][/font][/size]
  5. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Cool and changeable; more rain and showers at times, with decent dry interludes. Frost risk mid week.[/b]

    The dismal, cool and soggy Spring continues relentlessly. A respite from the rain this weekend but a fairly unsettled outlook for the coming week, so still no prolonged dry or warm weather as yet. In fact, more late frosts are expected in the middle of the coming week.


    After a fairly sunny but windy weekend, the cloud from the next frontal system, attached to a deep low passing north of Scotland, spreads over during this evening. Rain at times Sunday night, especially for west Wales along with quite a strong south-west wind. The rain should have cleared by lunchtime with sunny spells and a few showers for Monday afternoon and evening. A fresh westerly wind and feeling rather cool.
    [attachment=134153:brack0 rain to showers mon.gif]

    Even cooler on Tuesday, with a fresh to strong north to north-west wind bringing quite a few showers, these heavy with hail at times. Maxima just 10 to 12c. The low pressure edges away east Tuesday night, and winds may ease enough to give a ground frost as temperatures get down close to zero. Wednesday looks like being a dry and fairly sunny day with a high pressure crossing southern Britain. Still rather cool though, 14 to 16c at best. Clear skies lead to another frost for Wednesday night, close to zero in places once more.
    [attachment=134154:Recm482 cool showery tue.gif] [attachment=134155:brack2a frost sunny wed.gif] [attachment=134156:Rtavn781 H south wed dry.png] [attachment=134158:Rtavn9017 frost wed night.png]

    This high has moved east by Thursday, but may still be ridging across England and Wales and keeping it generally dry, but perhaps with more cloud than Wednesday. There is the chance that some showery rain may arrive from the west later in the day, but a mostly dry Thursday looks likely. Temperatures around average reaching 15 to 17c, warmest in the Midlands.
    [attachment=134157:Recm962 mostly dry thu after frost.gif]

    On Friday we are influenced by a low pressure moving up from France with it's associated rain. It's debatable how far north this low will push up , but it seems it could get into southern UK. Alternatively, it may give us a glancing blow passing more to the south-east. Nonetheless turning more unsettled again on Friday and into next weekend with areas of rain or showers affecting many parts. If the low tracks to our south-east then it drags chilly north-east winds over us too, so not too good at least for Saturday, with well below average temperatures once more. The GFS model is showing highs of just 7c for Wales and the Midlands next Saturday, an exceptionally cool and damp day - however this model tends to exaggerate temperatures so 10c or so would be a more realistic level should this scenario play out, and with the usual proviso that 'it's a long way off'! As for next Sunday, another cool day seems likely, although whether it rains or not is anyone's guess at this stage.
    [attachment=134159:Rtavn1201 shall low south fri.png] [attachment=134160:Recm1202 cool E wind fri rain later.gif] [attachment=134161:Rtavn1441 L to SE Sat unsettled cool NE wind.png] [attachment=134162:Rtavn15017 Very cool sat.png]
  6. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Unsettled with rain at times; cool start, mild end to the week[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The mild air was duly swept away during Wednesday by chilly north winds. The change most marked across the Midlands, on Tuesday it reached a warm 20.7c at Coventry, on Thursday just 11.5c and colder than it had been during Tuesday night! For West Wales Monday night was especially mild with a low of 14.6c at this location. Most of West Wales had a fairly dry week, just 7mm falling at Llanwnnen, but the Midlands saw very wet weather on Saturday with one inch (25.2mm) falling at Coventry in the 24 hours to Sunday morning and well over half an inch at Rugby. In contrast most of West Wales has been dry so far this weekend. More wet weather across the Midlands on Sunday morning, but hopeful that this is becoming more patchy from the east this afternoon. A rather cloudy Sunday afternoon with showery rain in places, but turning drier for the central and eastern Midlands, whereas the SW Midlands keeps the heavy rain, and this also moves into SW Wales, where there could be some heavy rain later this afternoon. A very cool day maxima of just 11 or 12c at best, but SW Wales nearer 14c.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]An unsettled week ahead with rain at times and no prolonged dry weather, but at least temperatures rising to above average from mid week. The low pressure that is giving all the rain this weekend is sat over England on Monday, so further outbreaks of rain at times, some heavier bursts still possible. A cool and quite windy day (Midlands especially) and with all the cloud temperatures no higher than 11 or 12c again, although SW Wales with bright intervals could see 14c locally. Skies should clear on Monday night with a ground frost in places, lows close to zero for parts of mid Wales. The low slowly moves away east Tuesday, while the next front remains to our SW, so prospects of a much drier and brighter day although we cannot rule out the odd light shower. Sunny intervals through Tuesday, especially for West Wales, highs of 13 to 15c. Lighter winds on Tuesday. An active frontal system moves NE across all parts through Wednesday with heavy rain in places, temperatures struggling with the cloudy skies, no better than the average of 14 or 15c, and quite a strong SW wind may also develop on Wednesday. The worst of the rain should have cleared through West Wales mid afternoon and the Midlands by sunset, by which time we will be in mild Atlantic air with a few showers.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A lull on Thursday seems likely as systems become very sluggish and the promise of a transient ridge for Wales and the Midlands. A mostly dry, bright and mild day but parts of West Wales catching showers afternoon, feeling very pleasant in the sunny intervals with temperatures of 15 or 16c. A mostly dry, mild night to follow. The end of the week and indeed next weekend is controlled by a large slow moving low sat to the west or SW or Ireland. This drags up mild south to SW winds but also brings rain bands from time to time, no doubt some heavy bursts of rain at times. With even brief sunny intervals however temperatures could reach 17 or 18c comfortably over next weekend, and winds should not be too strong either.[/size][/font]
  7. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Rain at times, breezy, becoming dry late in the week; temperatures around average[/b]

    Last week witnessed the passing of the Winter that refused to let go! Near average temperatures for the most part, although the Midlands only warmed slowly. We all have seen some rain of late, although it took until Thursday for measurable rain in my gauge to end the 18 day 'frosty drought' which had parched and dessicated the countryside locally.

    A very wet night and Sunday morning for West Wales with over an inch of rain in my rain gauge. In contrast only a little rain for the Midlands today where it is proving to be the warmest day so far this year, into the mid 60's Fahrenheit here, in the warm sector air ahead of the front that is giving Wales all the rain. This rain has now cleared through West Wales to give sunny intervals and the odd shower, while the Midlands gets some showery rain at times the rest of this afternoon, lowering the temperatures.

    On Monday a fairly mild SW wind brings plenty of cloud but also sunny intervals. Mainly dry apart from the odd light shower scattered about, highs 13 to 16c. By evening a low pressure is passing close to Ireland and brings rain to Wales with a freshening wind once more. Overnight this mostly light rain spreads to the Midlands as well, quite a mild night lows of 6 or 7c. Tuesday starts with light rain in places, but this soon clears to sunny spells and a few passing showers, a brisk SW breeze and maxima of 12 to 15c. A slight hint of higher pressure kills off any showers to leave clear spells until further cloud spreads from the SW before dawn. The next in the succession of lows arrives over Ireland later on Wednesday, bringing more wet weather, and it could be a washout day for West Wales, as we will be within a rain producing warm sector similar to today's, so the potential for another inch of rain here. The Midlands also seeing some rain at times through Wednesday. Quite a windy day too for Wednesday, cool in the rain for Wales highs just 11c, but up to 14c for the Midlands which is around to the mid April mean.

    By Thursday the low is over Scandinavia with a cooler showery NW airstream, noticeably cooler for the Midlands with highs 11 or 12c. The showers die out Thursday night with a touch of ground frost in places. For Friday high pressure is close to our SW, so a fine if not especially warm day with decent sunshine, highs of 12 to 14c. High pressure over England on Saturday so a largely sunny day after a slight frost at dawn. Temperatures higher on Saturday reaching a respectable 13 to 17c. Unfortunately it does not look as though our end of week high will hang around, because through Sunday it starts to turn more unsettled again, with westerly winds arriving from a deep low close to Iceland, this looking set to bring rain bands and wind into the week that follows.
  8. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Changeable: Rain or showers at times, near average to mild temperatures; driest Midlands[/b][/size][/font]

    [b]Last weeks highlights[/b]

    [font=arial][size=3]An unsettled, often windy and chilly week gone, however temperatures were not far from the monthly average (around 8c) on most days, just that the wind made it feel quite cold However, a brief warm sector incursion on Tuesday saw maxima widely above 11c with a few spots such as Hereford managing a very mild 13c. Some rain or showers fell on most days in most places last week, as is usual parts of West Wales coming off quite wet overall for the week. With all the cloud and wind, and in spite of the rather cold air over us, frost was restricted until late in the week. There was some hill snow at times, but generally you had to go above 1000 feet to experience this and even then amounts appear to have been small. Heavy rain Thursday night gave over one inch to parts of Wales and half inch or so to much of the Midlands, wettest spot Trawsgoed, Ceredigion 34.6mm. After the mild, wet night Friday was mostly dry with sunny spells but quite cold, as indeed was Saturday.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3][b]The week ahead[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Overall a rather mild and unsettled week to come, further rain or showers at times. However Monday is mostly dry and bright and Friday into next weekend looks like seeing brighter, colder conditions with night frosts. It has already turned mild on Sunday morning across Wales with rain in places, indeed a cloudy, mild and rather windy afternoon too, some more rain at times, but not a washout. Mostly cloudy and breezy for the Midlands, it was chilly this morning but turning fairly mild this afternoon when there will be a litlle rain scattered about but some spots remain dry. Highs Sunday 10 or 11c for Wales and 8 or 9c the Midlands. Rain clearing West Wales (WW) after dark with a spell of mostly light rain this evening for the Midlands, just a few showers left overnight around coastal Wales. Dry soon after midnight for the Midlands, just a touch of ground frost possible for inland WW and the Marches. Monday is a quiet, mostly dry day with sunny spells, just the odd shower affecting parts of WW. Light winds Monday with maxima close to the mid December average at 7 to 9c. Clear periods and a slight frost on Monday night, down as low as -2c in places as a weak ridge crosses southern UK.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A dry bright start to Tuesday but soon clouding over for Wales as Atlantic fronts approach. The Midlands perhaps staying dry and bright well into the afternoon and a chilly day here no higher than 6c by tea time. For WW however rain arrives during the afternoon accompanied by a freshening SW wind and along with much milder air by evening. Indeed the night is set to milder than the day everywhere! Rain at times then for Tuesday night, heavy bursts in places, temperatures between 10 and 12c for all areas after midnight. Quite a windy night too. The weather for both Wednesday and Thursday is then controlled by a deep low in the vicinity of Iceland. Elongated fronts remain strung out across Wales and England through this 48 hours or so, the air is mild and moist, this giving further spells of rain, especially for WW, and it will be windy at times too. Some detail then and Wednesday is a largely cloudy, mild and quite windy day with rain and drizzle at times, chiefly for WW, but expect no more than a few spots across the Midlands. Highs Wednesday not really changing from overnight values of 10 to 12c, although the odd 13c is possible over the South Midlands where there could be some brighter intervals. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Wednesday night is again very mild with rain or drizzle at times, no lower than 9 or 10c. Thursday a similar picture of mild, damp and cloudy conditions, worst of the wet weather across Snowdonia and other high ground of WW, and where some quite high rainfall totals could be totting up after two days rain! Maxima Thursday once more between 10 and 13c, best for the SE Midlands, but a fresh to strong SW to west wind. The rain then perhaps more widespread and heavier for Thursday night which again is mild and rather windy. At long last the cold front should be clearing through by Friday morning taking the rain away and introducing brighter, colder conditions. If this proves to be the case then temperatures gradually fall off through the day, afternoon values likely to be at 5 to 7c, and there will be some showers about chiefly for WW and the NW Midlands. with hail in these. Clear spells with a widespread frost Friday night, lows around zero, but with a breeze continuing to feed showers into parts of WW. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A chilly NW breeze with further showers for WW Saturday too, but much of the Midlands escape dry and bright, highs between 5 and 7c which will feel quite cold. Hail showers for Wales with a little snow possible for highest ground above 500m. MIxed signals as we get as far out as Sunday, with indications of a transient ridge of high pressure so it could be a mostly dry cool day after frost - but this by no means definite. A Christmas prediction: a White one is most unlikely away from Scottish Mountains![/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=233249:ecmt850.048 dry some sun Mo.png][attachment=233250:viewimage slight fr MO night.png][attachment=233251:PPVJ89 dry chilly Mids rain pm WW.png][attachment=233252:PPVL89 We mild rain in place esp WW.png][attachment=233253:PPVO89 mild windy wet Th.png][attachment=233254:ecmt850.120 mild wet windy Th.png][attachment=233256:metslp.120 CF through Th night.png][attachment=233255:ecmt850.144 colder bright some showers FR.png][attachment=233257:ecmt850.168 transient R weekend.png][attachment=233258:viewimage few showers Su.png][attachment=233259:viewimage changeable week overall.png][attachment=233260:viewimage v mild mid week otherwise near ave.png][attachment=233261:viewimage WW rain times most days.png][attachment=233262:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
  9. TonyH
    [size=3][b]Headline: Continuing dry, very warm/ hot and largely sunny! Localised storms from Friday[/b][/size]

    [size=3]A fantastic week of Summer weather for all! Hottest over Wales where temperatures have been into the low 80's f (27 to 28c) at times, with each day reaching at least 24c at this location this week. Not as warm for the Midlands until this weekend but yesterday it reached a sweltering 30c at Coventry and Rugby! Very sunny too, an estimated 95 hours bright sunshine in the past week here as judged from my webcam captures, that's an average of over 13 hours per day! The only slight fly in the ointment was Wednesday for the Midlands where it was a rather cloudy and cooler day. Suffice to say a bone dry week for the vast majority of places, although a few spots caught a thundery shower in the Midlands yesterday, such as the Shrewsbury and Hereford environs. At least nights have been relatively cool, it got down to just 6.4c at dawn Friday here in Ceredigion. and most nights fell below 11c here in the countryside (11c being average for a July night). More of the same to come this week, very warm to hot with temperatures getting into the 80's fahrenheit again at times, especially from mid week onwards. July 2013 may well be going down in the annals of outstandingly warm and sunny Summer months! With only 4.7mm at Llanwnnen and 2.1mm at Coventry after two weeks of this month, and with very little rain showing in the models for the next fortnight, July 2013 could well become the driest for a good number of years (previous dry July examples: 2006 had just 30mm here, while 1999 had 18mm at Coventry). Plenty more heat and sunshine then in the coming week, with high pressure continuing to be stuck favourably over or close to the UK.[/size]

    [size=3]A foggy start in places on Sunday, then with patchy cloud for West Wales, and also some low cloud for the East Midlands as seen on the recent satellite imagery, this should be breaking to give another largely sunny afternoon, very warm generally with maxima 25 to 28c, although Cardigan Bay coasts nearer 21c with the sea breeze. A refreshingly cool night to follow down to 9 to 12c, although perhaps feeling sticky for cities. High pressure has slipped just to the SW of the UK for the start of this week, this permitting westerly winds and some rain to affect Scotland, this should though be as far as the more unsettled conditions makes it this week, as by mid week the high is slap bang over us once more! On Monday then, warm to hot with sunny periods, temperatures ranging from 21c for Cardigan Bay coasts where there is an onshore breeze again, 25c for inland and south coastal West Wales, and a hot 28c for the Midlands. Most days this week will in fact reach 80f across the Midlands, a proper 'heatwave' here. Parts of Cardigan Bay could turn misty at times given the NW flow off the sea. Again, on Monday night it will be refreshingly cool - if you stand in the garden at midnight - but with the retained heat in our homes, perhaps a problem sleeping! Tuesday a repeat performance, plentiful sunshine and warmth, if not heat. Peak temperatures in the 25 to 29c range, highest for the Midlands, cooler for Cardigan Bay coasts. [/size]

    [size=3]High pressure nudges closer in from the SW on Wednesday, largely sunny once more, and potentially very hot for the Midlands, 30c being shown by the GFS model here, while West Wales is more pleasantly warm with sea breezes, 21c on exposed coasts and 26c well inland, just the chance that some sea mist willl affect some western beaches on Wednesday. A subtle change from mid week is that we may well be losing the luxury of the relatively cool nights, so uncomfortable nights and trouble getting off to sleep by the end of the week! Thursday and the heat is more widespread once more, as the high sits over the UK, West Wales loses the sea breeze effect and joins in with the 80f heat. Sunny and hot then for Thursday, maxima widely 26 to 30c even along many coasts. A sticky night for Thursday too, probably remaining above 16c for cities and coasts, then rinse and repeat for Friday, hot and sunny reaching 27 to 30c widely, and little wind to cool us off! Friday is one of those Summer days when the heat is so strong that it may form a 'heat low' so the chance of a few thunderstorms in places for Friday afternoon or evening, the Welsh hills most at risk of these perhaps, but the majority of places missing these localised downpours.[/size]

    [size=3][font=arial]Next weekend and no respite from the heat and sunshine, and for most of us it will be over two weeks without rain and an 'absolute drought' (16 successive dry days), the gardens and allotments will be parched and plants wilting! Relatively high pressure remains steadfastly over the UK, although as with Friday a 'thermal low' may form over land in the afternoons, resulting in a thunderstorm for a fortunate few of us! Plenty of sunshine and humidity next weekend, highs again widely into the low to mid 80s f (27 to 30c). Indications that the settled, very warm spell hangs on towards the last week of July before it may at long last turn cooler and more unsettled? Watch this space...[/font][/size]
  10. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Becoming very unsettled, rain or showers, heavy at times; rather cool. Milder weekend.[/b]

    The Lampeter area still has not reached 60f (16c) this October which is most unusual, a very cool start to the month - last year we reached almost 80f (27c) on the October 1st! Localised flooding for parts of Wales last Thursday, including Cardigan where over an inch of rain fell during the afternoon. The Aberystwyth area had almost an inch falling from frequent heavy showers on Saturday. Another disturbed week to come and no doubt some further high rainfall totals and localised flooding. The 60f barrier unlikely to be reached again over west Wales this week, which will be another rather cool one overall, although frost is unlikely after tonight.

    Many of us had a frost this morning, down below -1c here in Llanwnnen and 0c at Rugby. The Midlands should have a dry bright Sunday but west Wales seeing some showery rain during the afternoon. Just the chance of an isolated shower over the west Midlands too this afternoon. Any remaining showers dying out overnight with clearing skies and a ground frost again, apart from SW Wales where it stays generally cloudy and damp. Clouding over for most parts Monday morning with a little drizzle in places, it may though brighten over the Midlands in the afternoon, but then a developing low moving into Ireland brings rain and freshening winds into west Wales late in the afternoon and the Midlands during Monday evening, the rain soon clearing overnight. During Tuesday one low is moving away over Scotland with the next approaching Ireland, so a between systems kind of day, plenty of cloud probably, though perhaps brighter for the Midlands. Mostly dry on Tuesday apart from some drizzle at times for west Wales. As with Monday another rather cool day maxima 12 to 14c.
    [attachment=141662:brack1 Mon night L brings rain through.gif]

    Wednesday to Thursday is a potentially very wet spell during which localised flooding will occur in some areas, although hard to pin details on exactly where and when the worst of the rain will fall. On Wednesday a fairly deep low is over or close to Ireland with some fresh to strong south to SW winds ahead of it. It looks as though there will be two main spells of rain, one early Wednesday and one late Wednesday into Thursday, some of this rain very heavy indeed, and although the timings are subject to change, some areas will receive over an inch with localised flooding. Even between the main rain areas there will be blustery showers. Wednesday and Thursday continue the cool theme, and where it stays wettest it will be especially cool and only reach 10 or 11c.
    [attachment=141663:brack2 LDL Ire rheavy rain potential Wed.gif][attachment=141664:brack2a L Ire rain wind Wed.gif][attachment=141665:Recm722 new L W Ire Wed wet windy.gif][attachment=141666:Rtavn904 wet Wed.png][attachment=141667:Rukm961wetvspell Wed to Thu.gif][attachment=141668:Recm1202 rain or showers Thu.gif]

    Friday still sees low pressure close by so further showers and possibly longer spells of rain, and temperatures a little below the mid October average, reaching 12 to 14c. Subtle differences in the pressure patterns next weekend, the lows look like being further west and allowing high pressure over the continent to influence our weather, so certainly looking milder for next weekend and perhaps even drier. West Wales still subject to weak fronts moving up bringing some rain or drizzle at times next weekend, but for the Midlands, with southerly winds, a much drier picture with temperatures perhaps nudging into the low 60's by next Sunday- a question mark as to whether west Wales will get this mild though? The warmer theme looks like continuing as we then near the end of October, so a good chance of hitting 60f even at Lampeter before the month end!
    [attachment=141670:Recm1442 showery Fri.gif][attachment=141671:Rtavn1321 cool unsettled Fri.png][attachment=141672:Recm1682 L W H E milder poss drier weekend.gif][attachment=141673:Rtavn1802 milder southerly flow drier weekend.png]
  11. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
    [b]Headline: Mostly dry and warm but breezy with sunny spells; risk of showers Thursday to Saturday[/b][/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
    [b]Highlights of the past week:[/b][/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
    The rather warm, very dry September continues, almost half way and some places yet to receive any measurable rain and a with a virtually bone dry week gone everywhere bar dew deposits in automatic rain gauges! The Midlands joined in with plentiful sunshine too last week, although the week ended with more cloud especially here again. The total 62 hours sunshine in the past 7 days here at Llanwnnen is most impressive for September and its rapidly reducing day lengths. Many days inland saw temperatures into the low 20's celsius but with no spectacular Autumn warmth, some of the highest readings being - Tuesday Hereford 22.2c and Coventry 22.1c, Wednesday Llanwnnen 22.6c, Trawsgoed 22.4c and Hereford 22.2c, then Wellesbourne, Warks 22.2c Friday. However nights were often cool with clear periods, lowest readings being last Sunday - Sennybridge 1.7c, Llanwnnen 1.9c, Trawsgoed 2.2c while here at Llanwnnen each night until Friday fell below 6c (average September minimum 9c) although we narrowly escaped grass frost.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
    [b]The week ahead:[/b][/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
    Plenty more dry and warm weather in week ahead so we are being spoilt this month, just the threat of a few showers, more especially later in the week. Sunday morning has been quite cloudy over the Midlands but bright for us in West Wales (WW). Reasonable temperatures this afternoon as the sun breaks through for all areas, maxima 18 to 21c but breezy. Just the chance of a light shower later for the North Midlands. Temperatures holding up above 10c tonight with a bit of a breeze keeping up, in fact during the week ahead the milder nights should be noticeable. Our Scandinavian high losing its grip this week with the ever- present low west of Iberia attempting to become more of an influence mid to late week threatening more unsettled conditions. Quite a keen easterly breeze on Monday, variable cloud but sunny intervals for most places, some weak fronts crossing northern Britain which may spark off a few afternoon showers for the North Midlands, but an essentially dry day with near average temperatures at 18 to 21c. Clear periods developing on Monday night, a cooler one down to 6c in parts of the inland west. Tuesday sees a somewhat warmer ESE flow off the Continent, some decent sunny breaks and warm maxima between 20 and 22c, but with quite a fresh wind developing especially later over South Wales. Dry but breezy overnight, clear periods with lows around 10c 50f.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
    The low close to Portugal and NW Spain getting its act together mid week and in so doing drags warm and quite humid air our way, but with an attendant increasing threat of showers. Wednesday however should be another dry day with decent sunny spells, especially over WW, warm again highs of 20 to 23c but still that keen east to SE breeze. The low never really properly dominates our weather this week though, as we are just too distant and escape any truly wet weather. There will be some showers developing on Thursday, over the south of our regions in particular, but few and far between these, some spots though catching a late sharp downpour. A touch warmer again for Thursday given pleasant sunny spells highs between 21 and 24c, best in the south. A mild night follows no lower than 12 or 13c generally.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
    Friday and still a warm airflow from the east or SE seems likely, earlier model charts were suggesting some very warm and potentially thundery weather by this stage, however the recent trends are less unsettled for the end of the week but without the heat arriving. Friday then, perhaps a greater shower risk, with an outside chance of thunder for a few, but the showers should be well scattered and with pleasant sunny spells once more it reaches a warm 20 to 24c, best over South Wales and the South Midlands. Less of a breeze too by Friday. On Saturday too a threat of showery rain over SW UK, so for our regions this means SW Wales and Gloucestershire most at risk of some showers on Saturday, but a new high is moving into Scotland drying things out. Sunday looks a dry, fine day with the high over us, the weekend seeing a continuation of the warmth, highs 20 to 23c so hopes then of a late Season trip to the beach! [/font][/color][color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
    [color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224559:PPVG89 m dry ave some si.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224560:PPVJ89 Tu bright warmer breezy.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224561:PPVL89 we dry warm bright breezy.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224562:ecmt850.072 warms u mid week m dry bright breezy.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224563:PPVO89 Th warm sun ints odd shower breezy.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224564:ecmt850.120 TH warm few showers south.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224565:ecmt850.168 H weekend Scot becoming dry again.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224566:h850t850eu m dry warm bright weekend.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224567:prcpWest~Midlands few showers but reasonably dry week.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224568:prmslWest~Midlands never turns truly un settled.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224569:t850West~Midlands warm from mid week.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224570:mgram_Birmingham perhaps unsettled from Fr.png][/font][/color][/font][/color]
  12. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3]
    [b]Very disturbed with deep Atlantic lows bringing heavy rain and gales at times; variable temperatures but never especially cold[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A generally mild week gone, although the Midlands in particular saw some frost mid week, and on Wednesday the high was just 6c at Coventry due to an anticyclonic inversion which saw colder surface air trapped beneath mild upper air at cloud level. Then, some very mild air with most places remaining above 9c on Thursday night, Trawscoed and Pershore reaching 13c on Friday. A dry first half to last week but from Thursday it turned increasingly unsettled and windy at times, on Saturday gusts of 85mph at Capel Curig, 65mph at Pembrey and 51mph at Llanwnnen, Wales, being recorded. An inch of rain falling in the past week here near Lampeter while Coventry had just 5mm. The North Atlantic is seeing a very significant temperature contrast presently as really cold air leaving North America meets relatively warm Tropical air from the south, this collision of highly contrasting air masses spawning a succession of deep storm systems. A very disturbed week ahead as a series of deep depressions cross the Atlantic bringing heavy rain and strong to gale force winds to all parts at times, these could well cause damage. with Wednesday and Friday/ Saturday seeming the most likely occasions for these gales. A White Christmas is most unlikely this year (as usual!).[/size][/font][font=arial][size=3]


    The dry, bright start to Sunday has flattered to deceive as various weather fronts are set to bring cloud and some rain at times this afternoon and evening, although parts of the Midlands may escape with relatively little again. A fresh to strong SW wind on Sunday gusting to gale force for coasts and hills of Wales. Mild highs of around 12c. A pulse of heavier rain perhaps affecting the South Midlands this evening, but then only patchy light rain and drizzle during the night. Quite a windy night. Very mild too tonight, no lower than 10c for the Midlands, although should the cold front manage to clear through West Wales around dawn it could dip to 6c locally here. This cold front may linger across the Midlands during much of Monday, the central and southern areas of this region more likely to see rain at times through the day, most of it quite light. West Wales may see some showery rain first thing, but then a mainly dry Monday afternoon, bar the odd shower, and with sunny intervals. Highs between 9 and 11c on Monday - mildest for the East Midlands and Pembrokeshire. Most places becoming dry on Monday night with clear spells and a widespread ground frost, temperatures down close to zero, however the lingering front over SE England may decide to return rain to the SE Midlands beyond Coventry once more after midnight? The cold front should at long last have fizzled out over the SE by dawn leaving a dry, bright Tuesday but colder highs of 6 to 8c generally. Clearing skies on Tuesday evening soon leads to a frost as temperatures reach zero across the Midlands by midnight. Increasing wind and eventually cloud for West Wales through the evening lifts any frost and this process should have occurred for the Midlands too by dawn on Wednesday as the wind starts to pick up.

    During Wednesday an intense depression is set to track to the NW of Ireland, the central pressure could well be below 960mbar. Strong south to SW winds developing on Wednesday morning with the potential for widespread gales with gusts to storm force (above 60mph) through the afternoon in particular - so the main feature for Wednesday is the prospect of damaging winds. Patchy rain also to greet dawn on Wednesday for West Wales, this becoming heavier by afternoon and spreading across the Midlands eventually. For Wednesday evening a band of heavy and squally rain moves east across all parts, again with damaging gale force wind gusts associated with this feature, there could also be hail in places. Temperatures on Wednesday rather inconsequential but reaching 8 to 10c, so a fairly mild but very windy day. The main rain clears the East Midlands around midnight, it is then a windy night with squally showers affecting Wales in particular, hail likely in these. In spite of the wind, some quite cold air arrives and temperatures drop to 2 or 3c with a grass frost in places, and the showers over the Welsh hills could be turning wintry. The deep low has move towards Iceland by Thursday with quite a strong cold blustery SW to westerly flow over the UK. Plenty of showers for Wales on Thursday, these often heavy with hail, and some sleet or snow for high ground, although even lower down we could notice a few flakes. Showers spreading to the Midlands too through the course of the afternoon, these again bringing hail and sleet in places. Blustery winds on Thursday, highs of just 5 or 6c and feeling pretty cold in the wind. Some showers continuing even into Thursday night for West Wales but these should die out during the evening for the Midlands, clear spells and a slight frost down just below zero in places, with the wind dropping off too. The next deep low is south of Iceland on Friday but extends its frontal influence across the UK as we go through the day. Soon clouding over then on Friday morning with rain reaching most parts by afternoon, heavy in places, especially Wales. Friday is another day with a likelihood of gales developing, strong to gale force SW winds accompanying the rain on Friday afternoon and evening, the prospect of at least severe gale force gusts of above 50mph quite likely and with more wind damage expected. The rain totals for the week will be totting up too by the end of the week so we could be seeing flooding issues to by Friday into next weekend for some areas. It becomes very mild later on Friday and by evening temperatures will be at 10 to 12c as we will be in the warm sector of the depression.

    This very disturbed picture of volatile Atlantic depressions affecting the UK continues almost unabated next weekend and even through the Christmas period. Further very wet and windy weather then at times for the foreseeable future really, this bringing the unwanted attendant risks of flooding and wind damage over the Festive period. Both of the main weather models are showing a rather nasty looking low crossing southern Britain around Christmas Day in fact! Big swings of temperature in this outlook varying from very mild within warm sectors to quite cold as troughs pass to our east, but any wintriness almost certainly restricted to hills and even up there of very temporary nature. Chances of a White Christmas are then considered very slim! Much more likely is the prospect of a damaging storm system bringing severe gales and flooding along with notably low barometer readings at some stage over the Christmas period.
    [/size][/font]
  13. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Mostly dry bar the odd shower; sunny spells, rather warm to Thursday then cooler[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A showery start to last week, the West Midlands in particular getting some thunderstorms on Monday with a few more on Tuesday. Generally dry though since Wednesday, and some warm and sunny weather on Thursday and Friday, although a few places caught a shower later Friday. Highest temperatures last week were 23 to 25c over the West Midlands, and 20 to 22c over West Wales (WW) on Friday. Saturday was particularly warm at Pembrey, Carmarthenshire where the temperature reached over 23c. A few parts of the Midlands caught showers on Saturday too, but it was a generally dry day.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Plenty more dry and reasonably warm weather in the week ahead too, variable cloud but with decent sunny spells at times, especially over WW. Cooler for Friday and the weekend, but still a mainly dry and bright picture. Sunday a pleasant day, rather cloudy at times, especially the Midlands but with some sunny spells, Pembrokeshire faring well. Fairly warm highs between 19 and 21c. Just the chance of a shower for a few spots. Mostly dry and quite mild tonight. On Monday high pressure remains close to NW UK with a fairly gentle NE flow over us. The Midlands may be troubled by areas of cloud coming from off the North Sea at times, but there should be some sunny intervals, while WW sees decent sunny spells and has a warm day. Highs around 18c for the cloudier East Midlands and 22c for parts of sunnier WW. It should stay dry everywhere on Monday. Very similar weather on Tuesday too, dry, some sunshine especially for WW, where it will be warmest, highs ranging from 19c East Midlands to 22 or 23c WW. Quite a fresh NE breeze for the East Midlands. More of the same on Wednesday as well, dry and warm with sunny spells, best for the West Midlands and WW, areas of cloud coming into the East Midlands from the North Sea at times. Temperatures reaching 19 to 21c for the Midlands and 22 or 23c for WW. Just the chance of an isolated afternoon or evening shower, but 90% of us stay dry again. Nights through this early part of the week reasonably mild with minima largely in the 8 to 12c bracket.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]High pressure still close by to the west of Ireland on Thursday, so a generally dry picture once more. Sunny spells and rather warm for most areas, highs 20 to 23c, although it may turn cooler later in the day as a weak cold front moves down from the north, this feature also may set off a few showers afternoon and evening. Perhaps a cooler, fresher night to follow with clear spells. HIgh pressure still quite close by to the west for Friday and probably next weekend too. So the generally dry theme set to continue bar the odd shower or two, these more especially affecting the East Midlands. Cooler on Friday highs in the 17 to 20c range and something of a northerly breeze, especially over the Midlands. Sunny spells for most. Mostly dry and bright then next weekend with temperatures near or a little below the late June average (which is 18 to 20c). The potential in what will be quite a cool air mass of some chilly nights, GFS model shows a local ground frost for Saturday night giving lows of an unlikely 1c over the Welsh Marches![/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=216356:PPVG89 m dry some sun Mo.png][attachment=216357:ecmt850.048 dry SS MO Tu warm W.png][attachment=216358:PPVL89 SS warm in W.png][attachment=216359:h850t850eu SS r warm Tu.png][attachment=216360:PPVO89 m dry r warm again Th.png][attachment=216361:ecmt850.120 warm SS Th.png][attachment=216362:metslp.120 cooling late Th.png][attachment=216363:ecmt850.168 cooler m dry WEND few showers Mids.png][attachment=216364:ukmintemp local GF Sat night.png][attachment=216365:prcpWarwickshire m dry week odd shower.png][attachment=216366:prmslWarwickshire H all week m dry.png][attachment=216367:t850Warwickshire warm to TH then r cool.png][attachment=216368:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color]
  14. TonyH
    [b][b]Headline: Unsettled, more rain or showers at times, could be a dry weekend, quite cool.[/b][/b]

    Another very unsettled and sometimes wet week just gone. For the Midlands it is turning into another very wet month, with over 3 inches already at Coventry, which is a little more than has fallen in usually wetter west wales. When the sunny intervals come along they feel warmer than they actually are, the highest reading of the week was just 19c here at Llanwnnen, which is barely up to the July average. Another unsettled week to come, perhaps not the really heavy rains of Summer thus far, and the promise of a largely dry end to the week and which should last into the weekend.

    Monday will be a mostly cloudy, cool and rather windy day with rain or drizzle at times, some of this quite heavy in places. During Tuesday a warm front moves across introducing rather warm and humid air. Plenty of cloud for many parts, with a little light rain or drizzle, mainly for west Wales, it may well brighten in the Midlands in the afternoon which would see temperatures into the low 70's f or around 22c. A brisk south-west wind for Tuesday.
    [attachment=137038:brack0 Mon rain.gif][attachment=137039:brack1 warm sector Tue.gif][attachment=137040:Recm482 warm sector Tue.gif][attachment=137041:Rtavn5417 warmest day Tue.png]

    Low pressure crosses northern Britain on Wednesday with the associated fronts affecting Wales and the Midlands. A spell of rain for west wales in the morning and then for the Midlands in the afternoon, clearing to sunny intervals and showers, some heavy. Temperatures rather below the July average reaching 18 to 20c. More wet weather overnight Wednesday, which may prove enough for flooding over parts of Wales. A rather cool and showery day Thursday, these heavy with thunder in places, especially over the Midlands. Temperatures reaching just 18 to 20c again
    [attachment=137042:brack3 rain or showers Wed windy.gif][attachment=137043:Rtavn721 rain and showers cool Wed.png][attachment=137044:Recm962 cool showery Thu.gif][attachment=137045:Rtavn10217 cool showery Thu.png]

    A ridge of high pressure moves in from the west killiing off most of the showers, so Friday a mostly dry and bright day, if not especially warm, a gentle north-west breeze, and temperatures 19c at best. A chilly July night to follow, down as low as 5c in the countryside. The models were showing it to turn unsettled again over next weekend, however things are now showing signs of improving, so that the high pressure holds ground for Saturday at least. Hopefully then, another mostly dry day for Saturday, although temperatures still no great shakes, as we will be in a gentle but cool northerly drift of air. This cool air mass means another very cool night, perhaps a touch lower than on Friday night, as low as 4c and even with a touch of ground frost in favoured cold hollows first thing on Sunday- this is a long way off though. Still a ridge over the south for Sunday, but with a warm front bringing cloud and perhaps a little rain later, although this could stay a generally dry day too!
    [attachment=137046:Rtavn1261 R Fri mostly dry.png][attachment=137047:Rukm1441 R just about dry Sat.gif][attachment=137048:Rtavn1501 dry fine Sat.png][attachment=137049:Recm1442 dry fine Sat.gif][attachment=137050:Recm1682 dry weekend poss.gif]
    The Jet Stream is finally moving away north for late July for a long awaited taste of Summer!
  15. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Cool and unsettled with rain at times; potentially dry and warm next weekend[/b]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    Plenty of cloud last week, cool for the most part, although it briefly warmed up on Thursday when most of us reached 19 to 22c. Thursday was the only day to get above 17c here, the average September maxima being 18c, so a decidedly cool week gone. Mostly dry early in the week, but then wet at times during Thursday and Friday. Coldest night of the Autumn to date last night here, the low of 0.8c and a ground frost. Over the Midlands it got down to 4 or 5c quite widely. A cool, unsettled and at times wet and windy week ahead, although big improvement hopes for next weekend to drier and warmer conditions thanks to a former hurricane![/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    The first deep Autumn low is bringing strong to gale force winds and spells of rain and drizzle for Sunday afternoon, wind gusts peaking at 50 to 60mph in places, which will cause some damage and falling branches. The rain turning heavier this afternoon, especially for West Wales, where there could be over an inch in total. By midnight this low has a central pressure of 964mbar and is positioned SE of Iceland, fuelled by a jet stream which during Monday will be blasting through the UK at almost 200mph some 30,000 feet above our heads! The main rain clears through early this evening, but with rain and hail showers rattling into coastal areas of west and north Wales throughout the night.. Strong to gale force winds continuing overnight but these will have veered to NW from the SW that they are currently. The deep low is only moving slowly to the north of Scotland throughout Monday, so strong NW winds continuing, again gusting to gale force at times. Very cool and showery on Monday, plenty of blustery showers coming through, these heavy with hail in places, this especially for West Wales. Highs only between 11 and 13c, well below average for September. Cold enough for some sleet or snowflakes in the showers for high up on Snowdonia! Parts of the Midlands missing the worst of the showers on Monday where shelter is afforded by the Welsh hills. The worst of the wind should be easing as we go into Monday evening. The low still close by over the North Sea during Tuesday, with the complication of another secondary system crossing SW parts early in the day. A further scattering of showers on Tuesday, with a more general wet area tracking somewhere across Wales and the SW during the morning, the exact location uncertain, but mid and south Wales and the SW Midlands (Cotswolds) could be in for a wet Tuesday morning. A drier afternoon but still the odd shower in places, and another cool day, but at least it should be a lot less windy on Tuesday, highs only managing 13 or 14c. With clearing skies and less wind a chilly night to follow, down to 5c in places.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    On Wednesday although the by now filling low is still sat over the North Sea feeding cool NW winds, a ridge of high pressure is trying to move into the west but not really succeeding. The proximity of the ridge damping down the shower activity, although still some coming into NW Wales and through the Cheshire Gap to the NW Midlands especially, one of those days where some areas get a pleasant dry and bright day though! Cool again on Wednesday, highs between 13 and 15c. These hints of a ridge flatten on Thursday with further Atlantic fronts bringing some rain at times, although probably not so heavy this bout. A milder sector of air on Thursday, but highs no better than average reaching 15 to 18c with a keen westerly breeze. Still a rather unsettled look to the charts even on Friday but with higher pressure close to our south. Rain fronts in the vicinity of the UK though on Friday, so still the chance of some rain or showers in places, but many of us could escape with a generally dry day, but still on the cool side.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    Next weekend is quite interesting as the ex hurricane Humberto gets absorbed into the polar jet, and as it does injects some warm and humid air in our direction! Good signs then of high pressure over the UK next weekend, with low pressure out west of Ireland dragging up this warm air from the sub-Tropical SW. Still a little too far off to be a certain prediction, but next weekend potentially dry and warm with some sunshine, and temperatures may be into the low 70's F (above 21c) come this time next week (next Sunday afternoon). [/size][/font][font=arial][size=3]
    [attachment=185107:PPVE89 964 L Mon cool windy showery.png][attachment=185108:viewimage 200mph jet.png][attachment=185115:viewimage v cool windy showery Mon.png][attachment=185109:PPVJ89 rain threat Tue.png][attachment=185110:viewimage wet Tue morning SW.png][attachment=185111:PPVL89 Wed cool drier localised showers.png][attachment=185112:PPVO89 rain times THu.png][attachment=185113:metslp.120 next spell rain THu.png][attachment=185114:ecmt850.096 further rain band Thu.png][attachment=185116:ecmt850.168 ex Humberto dry warm weekend.png][attachment=185117:h850t850eu ex humberto injects warmth our way weeknd.png][attachment=185118:prcpSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion unsettels rain times all week WW.png][attachment=185119:prmslWest~Midlands settling weekend.png][attachment=185120:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
  16. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    [b]Headline: Unsettled with rain and wind at times; rather cold to mild temperatures[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A decent cold snap last week. The Midlands was especially cold due to persistent freezing fog, this meant that Coventry failed to top 0c on both Tuesday and Wednesday, while at least west Wales enjoyed plenty of albeit chilly sunshine.[/size][/font][b] [/b][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Night-wise, Llanwnnen got down to -7.4c on Tuesday (not quite as low as the -7.5c recorded on November 29th), while the lowest on Wednesday night in Coventry was -5.2c and -6c at Church Lawford, Warwickshire. At least it remained largely dry through to Friday. A milder, unsettled outlook now, and this pattern could well last through to Christmas, so a White one looking very unlikely this year![/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]

    Useful websites:

    [url="http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/"]http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/[/url]
    [url="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wm/church_lawford_latest_weather.html"]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wm/church_lawford_latest_weather.html[/url]

    Ground frost in places to start off Monday. Low pressure fills up over northern Britain during Monday, which will see some showers once more for many places, although a few spots escaping. Decent sunny spells between the shower clouds coming along, with a moderate westerly breeze, and not cold. Showers die out to leave clear periods and a ground frost for Monday night as a ridge approaches the west. It could be foggy to start on Tuesday. Between lows Tuesday so a dry dry and sunny day once any fog clears, but rather cold maxima of 5 to 7c. Another frost setting in during the evening especially for the Midlands, as west Wales may start to cloud over with a strengthening wind.
    [attachment=149043:PPVG89 showers Mon.png][attachment=149044:ecmt850.072 dry chilly Tue.png]

    Active fronts from a deep Atlantic system brings mild, wet and windy weather through Wednesday and Thursday, certainly enough heavy rain to present further flooding issues in places. Temperatures reaching 10 or 11c during Thursday morning, before the cold front comes through. Rain turning more showery perhaps through Thursday afternoon. On the balance of things Friday looks a day of sunny intervals and showers, heavy in places with hail, and colder, maxima 7 or 8c, which happens to be average for mid December.
    [attachment=149045:PPVM89 mild wet windy Wed.png][attachment=149046:ecmt850.096 wet Wed to Thu.png][attachment=149048:met.120 showery colder Fri.png][attachment=149049:ecmt850.120 showery Fri.png]

    Next weekend looking mild and disturbed as further deep depressions pass to our west, bringing more bouts of heavy rain and flood risks to already saturated floodplains. As for Christmas Day? My guess is that it will see further strong winds and rain at times, and definitely no snow.
    [attachment=149050:ecmt850.168 more wind rain weekend.png][attachment=149051:Rtavn2281 Christmas Day.png][/size][/font]
  17. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Changeable with rain at times but drying out between times; mild to mid week then cooler and showers maybe wintry in places[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Another soaking for many of us last week, February is turning into an exceptionally wet month across West Wales and at the half way point an astounding 213mm here in Ceredigion, the near relentless rains difficult to comprehend even for this wet area! Wetness not extreme for the central Midlands but still in excess of the February average of 40 - 50mm already, although some places such as Rugby have been drier. This has meant few flooding issues across Warwickshire and Leicestershire this month, the rivers coping well compared to the Thames and Severn the catchments which have been receiving exceptional quantities of rain since December. Some places saw snow last week, generally hardly any, but the A44 inland from Aberystwyth near the Red Kite Centre was closed on Tuesday morning by heavy snow, and snow fell for a while across much of the Midlands though not amounting to much at low levels. Not a completely snowless Winter at least for some! Another feature of the week gone were the high winds on Wednesday and again Friday which caused extensive damage and disruption, power outages and brought trees down. Highest gusts on Tuesday:[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Aberdaron 108mph[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Mumbles 96mph[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Aberporth 87mph[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Llanwnnen 61mph[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Coventry 57mph[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Little Rissington 68mph[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Then on Friday South Wales and the Midlands hit hard, Coventry having a gust of 60mph which was the equal highest on record at the city centre site, while Little Rissington in the Cotswolds saw 67mph, these damaging winds for inland. Friday was eventually a mild day after some morning sleet in places, many places reaching 10 or 11c. Atmospheric pressure was below 1000mbar from February 3rd to 15th - a measure of this remarkably unsettled, wet and stormy spell, and doubtful that this has happened for a very long time. At last on Sunday a respite with, unusually for Winter 2014, a calm, frosty sunny morning! Although we will be getting some dry interludes in the week ahead, especially much of Tuesday and Wednesday - the overall picture remains unsettled right to the end of the month, so further wet and windy weather at times is the longer outlook. Yet again a largely snowless week coming up and although there will be some frosts, these never harsh. Damaging winds are not expected in the week ahead, nor is significant flooding in our regions[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A welcome ridge of high pressure giving the calm, dry and quite sunny conditions on Sunday, highs of 7 to 9c, feeling very pleasant out this afternoon for a change.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Still clear this evening for the Midlands with a frost forming, but clouding over for West Wales preventing frost here, and with light rain into SW Wales by midnight. Rain at times for Wales after midnight, some perhaps rather heavy, and it clouds over the Midlands lifting the frost here, with some rain possible by dawn. A flabby low close to Ireland on Monday, not a windy day but a damp if not especially wet one for the Midlands, more distinctly wet at times for West Wales, some rather heavy bursts here at times. Highs of 7 to 9c again but not feeling pleasant like in Sunday's sunshine. Most of the rain has cleared away by midnight, but still bits and pieces through the night and too much cloud for any frost, lows around 5c. Nothing much going on for Tuesday, a gentle mild westerly flow bringing a few showers along with sunny breaks, so not a bad day for most, up to 10c in places. A mostly dry, quiet night to follow, any clearances leading to a ground frost locally, but not near coasts. The odd shower cannot be ruled out though.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Another largely dry day on Wednesday too, as a transient ridge passes over, some sunny intervals especially for the Midlands. Quite a mild day again highs around 10c. A deep low pressure will on Wednesday night..not be heading our way for once..rather following a more traditional path south of Iceland! This does though bring rain and strengthening SW winds to Wales late Wednesday afternoon or evening, some of this heavy, this rain then affecting the Midland by midnight. We will be in a warm sector so temperatures no lower than 6 to 8c, very mild for a February night. As the cold front comes through during Thursday morning a secondary low feature may form on this enhancing the rain where it does develop, this may be over the north or further south. It seems then that some of us could have a wet Thursday morning, but it is likely that this clears to sunshine and showers afternoon, these particularly for West Wales where there will be hail in them. Highs on Thursday occurring in the morning at 7 to 10c, mildest for South Wales and the South Midlands, then with a cool down expected afternoon along with a fresh west or NW wind making it feel chilly. Continuing showers for Welsh coasts and hills overnight Thursday could be turning wintry, certainly for high ground, and a ground frost forms quite widely. Friday and low pressure could be centred over the North Sea with a chilly showery NW flow, again wintriness can be expected for hilly areas. As is typical in a showery NW flow, Cardigan Bay, Snowdonia and the NW Midlands most affected by showers while some other areas escape. Highs on Friday a cool 5 to 7c with quite a fresh NW breeze. Too far off to be sure but a ridge could dry things up with a frost on Friday night? [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Even more of a split in the options weatherwise for next weekend, best guess is a dry, fine Saturday followed by some rain on Sunday, but do not hold me to this! The weather then looks like it will become very disturbed, often wet and windy for the final 4 or 5 days of the month.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=207859:PPVG89 Mon rain times.png][attachment=207860:ecmt850.048 L Ire rain times Mon.png][attachment=207861:PPVJ89 few showers mild Tu.png][attachment=207862:PPVM89 m dry mild Wed rain to WW eve.png][attachment=207863:ecmt850.096 mild wet Wed night.png][attachment=207864:ukprec heavy rai n possible Th morning.png][attachment=207865:h850t850eu rain to showers Th.png][attachment=207866:PPVO89 TH rain am to showers.png][attachment=207867:metslp.120 potential sec L TH wet in places.png][attachment=207869:h850t850eu wintry showers Fri.png][attachment=207869:h850t850eu wintry showers Fri.png][attachment=207870:ecmt850.168 dry Sat rain Sun.png][attachment=207871:prcpSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire Rain times some heavy.png][attachment=207872:prcpWarwickshire some rain dry interludes.png][attachment=207873:prmslWarwickshire mostly L R Wed.png][attachment=207874:t850Warwickshire mild to mid week then cooling.png][attachment=207875:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
  18. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Mild and often dry to mid week, then cool and unsettled; wintry showers possible from Friday[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A welcome dry week gone, barely a drop of rain, but with a lot of local variation depending on cloud cover and fog. Generally though it was a sunny week with some warm temperatures at times. Last Sunday saw 15 to 18c widely, and 18.6c at Coventry, notably warm for early March. Wednesday and Thursday saw highly contrasting conditions, a sunny 16c at Llanwnnen and 17c at Bala on Wednesday, but fog and low cloud problematic for other areas really pegging back temperatures where it stuck. Parts of the West Midlands only reached a cool 7c for example on Wednesday, while on Thursday some coastal parts of SW Wales remained foggy with Aberporth only managing 6c max compared to 15c here inland where the morning fog cleared to sunshine. Much of West Wales cooled off on Friday while the Midlands warmed up! Overnight frosts quite a feature last week and Friday mornings minimum of -3.6c here was the lowest since November. Warmth again for the Midlands on Saturday, 15.5c reached at Church Lawford and Little Rissington.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Further mild and often dry weather up to mid week after which it turns decidedly cool and unsettled. Warm and sunny for the Midlands on Sunday clouding over somewhat late afternoon, temperatures up to 17 or 18c, more in the way of cloud for West Wales, a spit of drizzle for some, with just a few sunny intervals at times and highs 12 to 14c. A mild, mostly dry night follows. A ridge of high pressure over southern Britain for Monday so another generally dry picture, sunny intervals and just the odd drizzly shower for Snowdonia. Highs 10c for Snowdonia, 12c for SW Wales and 14c for parts of the Midlands where it is a fine, bright day, light to moderate westerly winds on Monday. A trough of low pressure crosses during Tuesday, this bringing some rain to Wales in the early hours and thence to the Midlands by morning along with a fresh to strong west wind. Rain or showers in places a threat then during much of Tuesday, some places not seeing much though. A cooler day with the brisk NW wind, highs just 9 or 10c for West Wales and 11 or 12c for the Midlands. Any showers die out Tuesday evening leaving a dry night with no frost. High pressure returns close to our south for Wednesday which sees an improvement. A dry but breezy day, sunny spells prevail for the Midlands but with more in the way of cloud expected for West Wales, maxima 12 or 13c West Wales and 15 or 16c Midlands, so very mild here. The SW wind freshening afternoon, and a little rain may reach NW Wales by evening. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A deep low to the north of Scotland influences our weather for the latter part of the week pushing high pressure to our SE away. A slow moving front edges rain down from the NW on Thursday, so likely to turn wet and windy afternoon across Wales while it may hold off until evening for the Midlands. Cool for much of Wales with the wind and rain, highs 10c at best here but where brightness lasts 14c for the SE Midlands. Potential for a lot of rain overnight Thursday as a wave may develop along the front stalling its progress, and turning cold enough for sleet or snow over the high ground of Wales. A cool, showery westerly flow on Friday, hail showers, and likely to be wintry at times over the hills of Wales, but with sunny intervals as well. Highs just 6 to 8c on Friday so feeling much colder for many of us. A frost for Friday night with clear spells. With low pressure sticking close to Scotland more cool, showery weather next weekend too, again these wintry over high ground, and snow a possibilty to lower ground too although not settling, this more likely should showers occur overnight. Some further slight frosts likely by night. Maxima in the 7 to 10c range, but it should not feel too bad in the sunny spells, as the sun is getting quite strong now.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=209390:PPVG89 R dry Mon.png][attachment=209391:ecmt850.024 R m dry Mon.png][attachment=209392:PPVJ89 someain or showers tue.png][attachment=209399:h850t850eu cooler unsettled Tue.png][attachment=209393:ecmt850.096 m dry mild Wed.png][attachment=209400:h850t850eu windy dry Wed.png][attachment=209395:ecmt850.096 active front TH pm.png][attachment=209396:h850t850eu turns wet windy eventually Th.png][attachment=209402:ukprec poterntial wave stall early Fri.png][attachment=209397:ecmt850.144 cool showery Fri.png][attachment=209398:h850t850eu cool showery Fri.png][attachment=209401:h850t850eu cool showery weekend.png][attachment=209403:prcpWarwickshire rain or showers from Thu especially.png][attachment=209405:prmslWarwickshire increasingly unsettled week.png][attachment=209406:t850Warwickshire colder from FRi.png][attachment=209407:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
  19. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Some rain at times but plenty of dry weather, rather benign[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A fairly mild breezy week gone with rain or showers at times, especially across Wales as is typical! A mostly dry start to last week for the Midlands in particular, not much rain until the latter part of the week, even then overall the week was not a wet one for the Midlands. Temperature wise consistently on the mild side especially by night - bar some ground frost at the very beginning and again across West Wales (WW) on Saturday night. Mumbles, Swansea reached a very mild 15c Thursday, a day on which many places exceeded 13c. Friday another very mild day with some sunny spells too, Mona on Anglesey attained 14.6c, with most places getting above 13c - it had been 13.3c at midnight here at Llanwnnen! This weekend, in spite of the proximity of low pressure, has been mostly dry, and for (WW) bright, although cooler for the Midlands with a NE breeze.

    [b]The week ahead[/b]

    Some rain at times in the coming week but with quite a lot of dry and benign if rather cloudy weather. No Autumn storms on the way just yet! Sunday afternoon is dry with some brightness for WW although with winds off the North Sea its a rather dull and dank day for the Midlands, with drizzly showers possible in places too. Highs Sunday ranging from 10 to 13c, best for SW Wales. During Sunday night a low moves into eastern England from the Continent, its associated frontal system bringing rain to the Midlands soon after midnight and onto WW by dawn. With all the cloud no lower than 5 to 7c tonight. Monday is largely overcast with further drizzly rain at times, more especially during the morning, although perhaps some late brightness for SW Wales before sunset. Quite a cool day highs of 8 to 10c, although a 12c where it brightens over Pembrokeshire is possible. Mostly cloudy on Monday night still a little drizzle in places, but largely dry, lows 4 to 6c.

    Sunny intervals should appear for Tuesday which is a dry day bar the odd isolated shower, maxima of 9 to 11c bang on the mid November average with a moderate SE breeze. A dry night with clear intervals but no frost follows. A low in the Atlantic well west of Ireland is sending fronts our way on Wednesday however these should weaken considerably as they head towards a Scandinavian blocking high. Early brightness for the Midlands but Wednesday is a mostly cloudy day and rain soon arrives after dawn into SW Wales and edges slowly NE. Rain and drizzle, generally light, on and off much of the afternoon for Wales then, but the front tends to die over the Midlands so probably only a little rain here, and the East Midlands may get away with a completely dry day with a few sunny intervals. Familiar highs of 9 to 11c once more for Wednesday, but the SE wind could be fresh for a times over Wales during the day so making it feel chilly. Any rain and drizzle left over on Wednesday evening dies away overnight, plenty of cloud and no frost, no lower than 5 or 6c.

    The high to our NE exerts a reasonably strong ridge across northern Britain by Thursday which should be a dry day for many with some sunny intervals. A touch milder at 10 to 12c but still a that keen SE breeze. For Friday and much of next weekend it looks as though the Scandinavian blocking high should continue to keep Atlantic influences at bay, so plenty more mostly dry weather seem likely, although we still get weakened fronts into western UK from time to time, so a little rain may occur at times and probably with a good deal of cloud for the most part. Temperatures next weekend should be up to average (around 10c) although a minority of the models do bring in cooler air and given that particular outcome there would be a frost risk. We must also be aware that as recent as yesterday the GFS was suggesting a rather wet weekend, such are the variations in model output a week hence!
    [attachment=229930:PPVG89 drizzle esp am r cool.png][attachment=229931:PPVJ89 m dry Tu.png][attachment=229932:ecmt850.072 m dry Tu.png][attachment=229933:PPVL89 some rain pm WW m dry Mids WE.png][attachment=229934:h850t850eu light rain Wales m dry Mids WE block.png][attachment=229935:PPVO89 m dry some sun TH.png][attachment=229936:h850t850eu m dry TH.png][attachment=229937:ecmt850.120 TH dry.png][attachment=229938:ecmt850.168 m dry cooling weekend.png][attachment=229939:h850t850eu often dry ave weekend.png][attachment=229940:prcpWest~Midlands little rain times.png][attachment=229941:prmslWest~Midlands H dry TH FR at least.png][attachment=229942:t850West~Midlands mild or cool latter week.png][attachment=229943:mgram_Birmingham plenty of dry weather this week.png][/font][/color]
  20. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Mostly dry but quite cool; some rain weekend[/b]

    As anticipated rainfall amounts during the past week were small in spite of the rather unsettled weather pattern. Rainfall totals for the first half of September just.4mm for Coventry and 14mm here at Llanwnnen - so a very dry month to date (why not this during Summer!). Last weeks guide bore hope for a fine and warm spell from this weekend, however this has not really materialised (especially here in west Wales!). Weather forecasts during the Autumn can sometimes come a cropper as we are in the hurricane season, and once these powerful storms leave the Caribbean or US and curve east towards Europe, the extra energy injection can upset modelled weather patterns at relatively short notice. Hence our expected high pressure for this weekend being too far south-west for prolonged warm and sunny weather. This has been a very active hurricane season to date and during the past week two ex- hurricanes, Leslie and Michael have crossed the Atlantic disrupting the patterns as they do so. This week the next one called Nadine will also influence things, as a slow moving storm out in the Atlantic to the west of Spain by the end of the week, therefore the models somewhat all over the place at the moment regards later this week, although the overall picture suggests plenty of dry weather again but always on the cool side.


    Some sunny intervals on Sunday ahead of a weakening front coming over from the west. This front still with enough about it to give some rain and drizzle at times through this afternoon and early evening over west Wales. A largely dry and bright afternoon for the Midlands and up to 19c, then with a spot of rain and drizzle this evening. With high pressure to the south-west and low sat to the north-east Monday and Tuesday are quite similar days in terms of weather. The westerly breeze of Monday veers NW on Tuesday, both days rather cool with sunny intervals and just the odd scattered shower, but some places escaping these completely. Tuesday possibly the greatest chance of better sunny spells through the day as high pressure starts to ridge into west Wales. Quite a cool breeze on both Monday and Tuesday. Maxima only between 14 and 17c, so a cool feel for September.
    [attachment=139903:brack1a cool bright few showers Tue.gif][attachment=139906:Rtavn662 cool breezy Tue.png][attachment=139904:Recm722 H SW L NE Tue to Wed cool.gif]


    High pressure pushes into the south Wednesday which should be dry with sunny spells and a touch warmer, so reaching 16 to 19c. A clear cold night to follow, chance of a ground frost in places.
    [attachment=139905:brack2 R into SW Wed dry.gif][attachment=139907:Rtavn901 R south m dry Wed.png]

    As said, tropical storm Nadine is pounding the Azores later in the week and is set is to influence what happens to the weather here in the British Isles. and as such a great deal of uncertainty over what happens Thursday onwards, with very different model outputs prevailing. It seems at this stage that the high pressure will elongate to the west of Ireland while lows cross Scandinavia on Thursday. A cool north-west wind but mostly dry again for Thursday, just the chance of some rain edging down later in the day. Cool and quite windy with maxima just 13 to 15c. Anyone's guess really for Friday and the weekend, with some of the models going for high pressure and so dry weather to end the week, while the latest GFS output goes for low pressure domination with rain at times Thursday onwards and for the weekend. My stab would be to go with continuing the generally dry but rather cool theme through to the end of the week, but trending to unsettled through the weekend, with a more definite chance of rain and wind by Sunday. One thing that seems inevitable is that the final week of September is set to be very unsettled and wet!
    [attachment=139908:brack4 nadine with H west L east.gif][attachment=139909:Rtavn1141 GFS L dominates Thu.png][attachment=139909:Rtavn1141 GFS L dominates Thu.png][attachment=139912:Recm1442 H south Sat warmer dry.gif]
  21. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][color=rgb(28,40,55)][font=arial][b]Headline: Cool, sunny intervals and hit and miss showers; drying weekend but perhaps wet Bank Holiday Monday[/b][/font][/color][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][color=rgb(28,40,55)][font=arial]The past week was a cool and showery one, as always in these showery set ups, some places saw torrential downpours and thunder while others missed the worst. [/font][/color]Downpours and thunderstorms were quite widespread on Thursday, here at Llanwnnen 10mm fell in just 15 minutes on Thursday morning, with a maximum rain rate of 123mm/ hour briefly, while [color=rgb(28,40,55)][font=arial]45mm fell in 24 hours Thursday at Swyddfynnon, Ceredigion. In contrast Valley on Anglesey collected just 0.2mm Monday to Saturday inclusive while quite a few spots missed the worst of the showers after Monday. [/font][/color]A rather cool week past overall, especially for Cardigan Bay and NW Wales where some days did not exceed 17c. The Midlands and SW Wales fared rather better in the temperature stakes, much of the Midlands managing 19 to 21c and so closer to average on some days. Wellesbourne 21.1c on Wednesday being highest reading of the week across our regions, however on the same day Capel Curig in Snowdonia did not better a miserable 15c! Cool nights in the second half of the week, Bala 3.7c, Trawsgoed 5.4c Thursday night lows, then Friday night down to 5.9c here at Llanwnnen, and 6.1c Pembrey Sands. [/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Another essentially cool and showery week to come, as ever showers hit and miss - some areas may even escape with a reasonably dry week, while other get a good soaking from time to time. Cool, sometimes very cool for all, it is doubtful that anywhere will reach 21c (70f) in the coming week in spite of sunny spells. Some of the colder spots of Wales and the Marches may even see an unseasonable ground frost by the end of the week.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The remainder of Sunday afternoon is rather cool and windy, strong to gale force gusts especially for North Wales, a scattering of showers, heavy in places, as usual some of us escape with a dry afternoon. Maxima this afternoon 16 to 19c and much as they will be all week. We should be seeing 19 to 22c at this time of year on average, so a cool week indeed. The fresh to strong NW wind continues tonight, clear spells and dry for most, but some showers rattling into NW Wales and Cardigan Bay, lightning and hail may be a feature of these. The wind prevents temperatures dropping so low, around 10c in general.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A deep and large low pressure is circulating over Scandinavia for much of the week, dragging Arctic air south across the UK. Sunny intervals with hit and miss showers on Monday, some places catch heavy downpours with hail, temperatures in the 16 to 19c range, some decent sunny intervals but a fresh NNW wind.Clear periods, less wind and cool overnight, down below 10c for most of us. Again showers may continue to train down the Irish Sea into northern and some western parts of Wales through the night, so a rather wet night in places here.Tuesday sees plenty of cloud with more widespread showers and possibly longer spells of rain, especially for NW Wales and the NW Midlands. Very cool on Tuesday 'highs' just 13 or 14c over Snowdonia and 15 to 17c elsewhere. Clearing skies and reducing windspeeds means some low temperatures for August on Tuesday night, widely 5 to 8c, and 2c for parts of inland Wales and the Marches, so the chance of a of grass frost locally. Another sunny intervals and showers day on Wednesday, more chance of some areas escaping with a basically dry day though. Highs Wednesday back into the 16 to 19c range, best for the Midlands and coastal South Wales sheltered from the cool NNW breeze which will though be lighter. Another very chill night for Summer to follow, coldest spots over inland Wales again, down to just 3c with a grass frost just possible very locally. [/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Lighter winds too on Thursday with a slacker pattern over the UK, sunny intervals and some showers again, the odd heavy one in places, again some areas stay essentially dry while the next village gets a prolonged soaking with a clap of thunder! Familiar but cool temperatures between 16 and 19c, it will feel pleasant enough in the sunny breaks given only gentle breezes on Thursday, a few spots in the Midlands perhaps touching 20c. Clear spells and some showers overnight, chilly again temperatures in the 4 to 8c range away from cities and coasts. Similar Friday too, showers in places, some pleasant sunny intervals, cool though for August, maxima generally in the 16 to 19c range yet again, perhaps very cool though for NW Wales where showers may 'gang up', and if so no better than 15c here. Clearing skies means that Friday night is yet another very cool one down to 8c generally, 4c though locally with mist and fog patches by dawn. [/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Bank Holiday weekend and changes as an albeit somewhat tenuous ridge crosses the UK trying to kill off most of the showers. Saturday hopefully will be a largely dry and bright day although still on the cool side highs 17 to 20c so a slight improvement. The ridge may just about hang on for Sunday but an Atlantic low is heading towards Ireland threatening rain and wind as we go through the day, and quite likely into Wales at least by evening. Holiday Monday may see us entering another unsettled spell although a warmer one. Showers or longer spells of rain the guesstimate then for Holiday Monday with a low set to cross Britain, at least milder SW winds taking over by then![/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=222214:PPVG89 cool showery r windy Mo.png][attachment=222215:h850t850eu cool showery mo.png][attachment=222216:PPVJ89 cool showers Tu.png][attachment=222217:h850t850eu showers lsr v cool Tu.png][attachment=222218:ecmt850.072 showery cool Tu We.png][attachment=222219:ukmintemp local GF Tu night.png][attachment=222220:PPVO89 slack some showers Th.png][attachment=222221:h850t850eu light winds fewer showers TH.png][attachment=222222:ecmt850.120 lsr TH night.png][attachment=222223:ecmt850.168 tenuous R Sat to rain Su.png][attachment=222224:ecmt850.192 unsettled BHM.png][attachment=222225:prcpWarwickshire showery week wet by BHM.png][attachment=222226:prmslWarwickshire lowish tenuous R wend.png][attachment=222227:t850Warwickshire cool all week.png][attachment=222228:mgram_Birmingham showery cool week.png][/font][/color]
  22. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    [b]Headline: Mostly dry with sunny spells; quite mild at first, turning much colder with hard frosts from mid week,[/b][/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    Most of us have enjoyed the mild and at times bright spell of late, quite a contrast to the very cold and snowy picture over much of the Midlands until Wednesday. Temperatures have been as high as 10c widely, and even 11c in places. Still on the mild side early in the coming week, but it turns colder mid week, as a bitter easterly flow sets up. It looks as though high pressure will position close enough to our north to prevent showers from forming, but expect some hard frosts by night. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    Monday and Tuesday see a continuation of the rather mild and dry weather with sunny spells, temperatures up to 8 or 9c, after slight overnight frosts and fog in places, this more especially for the Midlands where the breeze is lighter. On Wednesday things start to change as our mild high is absorbed into an intensifying cold high over Scandinavia. The colder air is introduced by a weak cold front from the east, so after a slight frost in places, Wednesday sees a band of cloud with spots of rain in places being replaced in the aftenoon by brighter, colder weather. SW Wales may hang on to the mild air until evening, temperatures reaching 8c for Pembrokeshire but only 4c fo the Midlands.[/size][/font][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    [attachment=161362:PPVG89 Mon mild H dry.png][attachment=161363:PPVK89 week CF becomes colder Wed.png][attachment=161364:ecmt850.096 Wed Scand H cold arrives.png][attachment=161365:h850t850eu colder air arrives Wed.png][/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    With a great band of high pressure forming all the way from Ireland to Russia, Thursday to Sunday sees cold, even very cold air, spreading west over all of Wales and England. Prior to this weekend, some of the models were suggesting that this could be quite a snowy spell in places, as well as a bitterly cold one by the end of the week, however things have now trended to a largely dry picture with high pressure close to Scotland damping down atmospheric instability and therefore largely inhibiting snow showers from forming. Pressure over Wales and the Midlands remains above 1020mbar, and with no troughs apparent in the easterly flow, few places will see any snow showers this week. It is conceivable that the Midlands may catch a few light flurries on Friday or over the weekend, but this will not amount to anything really, and would just be be flakes blowing about in the wind. For West Wales, Friday and the weekend is expected to be cold, breezy and bright with good sunny spells, while the Midlands will see more of a cloud sheet spreading over at times, but this being the flat Stratocumulus layers rather than proper shower producing Cumulonimbus clouds. With clear skies most likely over Wales, this is where the hardest frosts are likely, down to -6c in places here, but still penetrating frosts everywhere with the keen NE wind. Maxima by day from Thursday to Sunday largely in the 2 to 4c range, although parts of Pembrokeshire, which are more sheltered from the NE winds, may fare better reaching 6c in places here. This compares with the average late February figures of around 8c.[/size][/font][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    [attachment=161366:h850t850eu cold dry breezy Thu.png][attachment=161367:metslp.120 v cold dry Thu ese flow.png][attachment=161368:h850t850eu cold m dry weekend.png][attachment=161369:ecmt850.168 cold dry weekend.png][attachment=161370:mgram_Birmingham dry cold high presure from Wed.png][attachment=161371:mgram_Cardiff dry cold high pr from Wed.png][attachment=161372:PN_D5_TT_TT_P1_NT_UV_UU_VV_METE_12000_Birmingham.png][attachment=161373:PN_D5_TT_TT_P1_NT_UV_UU_VV_METE_12000_Cardiff.png][/size][/font]
  23. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Cold/ cool: Showers or longer spells of rain, sleet or snow; night frost and some fog[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]So far March has delivered pleasant warmth, severe frosts and snow! Everything but the kitchen sink again in the coming week (excepting warmth that is). Spring is still on hold, the hard frosts stunting most growth, the Daffs having a real struggle to bloom still. Coventry had it's coldest March day since 1970 on Monday managing a high of just +0.7c (cf +0.3c). On Thursday morning Llanwnnen breached -10c, colder than any official UK weather stations! The rains proper returned on Friday to Ceredigion after an absence of a month, only 5mm having accumulated in the previous 29 days. Then yesterday afternoon, very heavy snow showers affected this area putting down an inch in just half hour. Snow was still lying this morning at Llanwnnen making it the first 'day of lying snow' in March since 2006, although snow lay briefly here on April 6th 2008. Another chilly week ahead and again the threat of snow in places, especially later when high ground could be seeing blizzard conditions.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Heavy snow in parts of the Midlands this morning, parts of southern England have had 4 inches! However for West Wales it's bright after the early fog, although some wintry showers likely through this afternoon, don't be surprised to see some snow and hail in the heavier showers. Maxima today generally between 5 and 8c, although colder for parts of the East Midlands where snow and rain lasts longest into this afternoon. With a very complicated complex low pressure over the UK and containing cold air, I would not rule out further surprise snow events cropping up locally tonight, so a few more of us could wake to a fresh covering on Monday morning. Many of us waking to a frost and also fog in places on Monday, irrespetive of whether it has snowed or not, then a bright day of sunny spells and some further showers. Very little wind on Monday so any showers could be slow- moving with hail and thunder, although any snow should be restricted to the higher hills. Less cool, maxima of 7 to 9c, so feeling pleasant enough in sunny spells.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Most of the showers die out on Monday night with clearing skies so another frosty one with fog patches forming quite widely again too. A bright or foggy start to Tuesday, then a few showers developing into the afternoon, before a front over northern parts edges down later in the day. Colder air once more trying to edge down, there will be rain or sleet on this front, that again may turn to snow in places during Tuesday evening and night, mainly, but not exclusively for high ground. So, once more some areas awaking to a snow cover on Wednesday morning. These repeated snow threats should they come to fruition would be turning this into an unusually cold and snowy March! Our resident low has filled up by Wednesday with a legacy of cloud and showery rain, sleet or snow in places, which should be dying out by the afternoon. A cold and mainly cloudy day on Wednesday, highs only between 4 and 6c. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=164954:PPVE89 (1) complex cold L surprise snow tonight possibles.png][attachment=164955:h850t850eu Mon flabby low little wind showers.png][attachment=164956:PPVJ89 filling L south Occ N some showers or rain, snow.png][attachment=164957:ecmt850.072 filling L colder snow threat Tues night.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]By mid week there is large blocking cold high from Greenland to Scandinavia, while Atlantic lows attempt to move into the UK. In the meantime for Wednesday night into Thursday we are in a 'No Man's Land' weather wise as the battle between cold and milder takes shape, suggesting more snow possibilities even to end the week! Quite a sharp frost for Wednesday night as skies clear, down to -5c in places. A cold day with plenty of sunshine on Thursday, it should stay dry for the Midlands, but cloud and perhaps rain arriving into West Wales during the evening. Highs disappointing again at just 5 to 7c.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=164961:PPVO89 let the battle commence Thu.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A 'Battle Royale' for Friday and much of next weekend with the cold block over Scandinavia most reluctant to give way, and directing a fresh incursion of very cold air over northern Britain. Meanwhile the low pressure area west of Ireland through this period sends rain fronts into SW and central parts. Suffice to say that Friday into the weekend looks pretty cold and windy, with spells of wet weather at times. The big question is will this rain turn to snow? With some heavy rain around through Friday and Saturday, coupled with a drag of cold SE to east winds over Wales and the Midlands, some of this rain is likely to turn to snow in places, in fact for higher ground there could be near blizzard conditions at times through this period. This is quite likely to be causing some travel disruption, more especially for the Peaks and above 250m across Wales. Most of SW Wales will be wondering what all the fuss is about with plain wet and windy weather for lowland Pembrokeshire, Carmarthenshire and Ceredigion, although even the hills here may see snow at times. A very cold, raw day on Friday, maxima between 2 and 5c, feeling really cold. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=164958:metslp.120 block vs Atl Fri wind rain hill snow.png][attachment=164960:h850t850eu battle FRi wet windy cold.png][attachment=164959:ecmt850.144 battle snow threat Fri to Sat.png][/size][/font][attachment=164965:ukmaxtemp blizzards high up FRi v cold.png]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]For the weekend and GFS has less cold air winning out on Saturday meaning just rain or showers, but then drags cold air back down for Sunday with at least a hill snow likelihood. ECM though maintains the battle throughout so a real risk of heavy snowfalls in places if this model is correct for next weekend. [/size][/font]
    [attachment=164962:h850t850eu less cold wins out Sat.png][attachment=164963:ecmt850.168 v cold Sun more snow threats SW.png][attachment=164964:mgram_Birmingham cold outlook.png]
  24. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Cold with frosty nights a feature; some rain or showers with hill snow; dry with fog next weekend[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A drier week gone - 26mm rain fell here and just 11mm at Coventry, but the extent of the showers during Thursday was not anticipated well in the last guide as although the East Midlands and parts of Pembrokeshire did miss these completely, parts of the Shropshire and Worcestershire caught half an inch or more from persistent showers. Temperatures mostly around or a little below the average last week (10 or 11c), with many places getting at least one air frost including on Tuesday night when it got down to -2.6c here and -3.6c at Benson in Oxfordshire. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]An slight taste of Winter this week as cold air arrives by Tuesday, although the risk of snow is negligible, we could see some quite hard frosts. Sunday has been a calm rather pleasant day with some sunshine in places such as Ceredigion and where it reached a fairly mild 12c. Several cold fronts brings rain to West Wales early on Monday morning moving into the Midlands afternoon, some quite heavy rain about for a time. The rain may linger well into the evening for the SE Midlands. Highs on Monday between 8 and 10c which will be the highest readings we see for at least a week! After a dry interval late afternoon, showers move into West Wales from off the Irish Sea during Monday night, some of these perhaps heavy with hail and marking the arrival of the much colder air, enough so for sleet or snow over the hills. Becoming clear and dry overnight for the Midlands and a widespread frost, many places getting down to around zero in spite of the keen NW breeze, coastal areas mostly escaping a frost however. On Tuesday we are in a cold NW blow between high pressure over the Atlantic and low over Scandinavia. With sea temperatures still up at 10c the cold air flow over Irish Sea is conducive to further shower development and so West Wales catching these, and it is cold enough for snow over high ground above about 1000 feet. Mostly dry with decent sunny spells for the Midlands. Very cold for mid November, highs of just 4 or 5c, but 7c is possible for Pembrokeshire, and a fresh NW wind. Another frost soon setting in after sunset, down to -3c in places by midnight. A low then slips down the North Sea through Wednesday, with the associated fronts bringing rain and mostly hill snow to all parts by morning, and so lifting the frost. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Rain at times through Wednesday morning with a fresh west to NW wind, but becoming more showery in the afternoon, again with wintry stuff for high ground. Cold again, highs on Wednesday generally 5 to 7c, but Pembrokeshire could touch 9c. Further showers in places overnight Wednesday and sleet or snow could temporarily come down to lower levels as temperatures drop to around zero, but this should not amount to anything away from high ground. A stiff northerly wind too overnight Wednesday making it feel bitter. Low pressure sinks away south into France during Thursday with pressure trying to build over northern Britain. The really cold air has mixed out by Thursday which is though still quite a chilly day with a NE breeze, there will be sunny intervals and a few rain showers. Highs between 5 and 8c. Clear intervals developing overnight Thursday with any showers tending to die out, still a bit of a breeze but a ground frost for many areas, temperatures down close to zero, with localised air frost and fog where winds drop sufficiently.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Strong indications of high pressure being over or very close to the UK by Friday and lasting right over next weekend. We are still in relatively cold air and the high will tend to trap this chilly air under an inversion layer at cloud level. Looking dry and fairly cold then from Friday, some sunshine, but with clearing skies frost and fog readily forming overnights and this could be slow to clear in places. Potentially quite sharp frosts of -5c are possible and with maxima in the 4 to 7c range, but colder where fog is persistent, this most likely to happen over the river valleys of the Midlands.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=193810:ecmt850.048 cold air arrives Mon night.png][attachment=193811:PPVJ89 cold some showers Tu.png][attachment=193812:h850t850eu cold unsettled Wed.png][attachment=193814:PPVO89 cold m dry Th.png][attachment=193815:ecmt850.120 r cold showers dying Th.png][attachment=193816:h850t850eu dry r cold Fr.png][attachment=193817:ecmt850.168 weekend dry r cold frost and fog.png][attachment=193818:h850t850eu dry r cold weekend.png][attachment=193819:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
  25. TonyH
    [font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Plenty of dry and warm weather, perhaps breaking down over the holiday weekend?[/b][/font]

    [font=Helvetica][b]The week gone:[/b][/font]

    [font=Helvetica]A cooler feel early last week, temperatures only reached 17.5c on Monday at Llanwnnen (the coolest day for 6 weeks), and 17.8c at Coventry on Tuesday, we did though get warm, but moist air Thursday into Friday, 25c being reached at Coleshill and Wellesbourne in Warwickshire on Thursday with some pleasant sunny spells too. Not much rain until Thursday, the very moist, warm air enveloping the UK then produced copious rainfall through Thursday night, which was not anticipated to this level in last week's guide! Trawsgoed, Ceredigion, was the wettest spot in the UK in the 24 hours to 6am Friday receiving 58.6mm rainfall, and many parts of Wales had betwen 25 and 50mm (one to two inches) rain during Thursday and Friday. All this rain caused localised flooding in Mid and North Wales on Friday and even a landslide onto the A487 near Corris, South Gwynedd. Nor did the Midlands escape the deluge, with Coventry having 26mm in the 24 hours to 0900 Friday, however much of the Midlands had less at 10 to 15mm. [/font]

    [font=Helvetica][b]The week to come:[/b][/font]

    [font=Helvetica]A much better prospect in the coming week with plenty of dry and warm, even very warm weather, however this may not last over the Bank Holiday weekend. Saturday's damp weather has moved off leaving a mainly dry and bright Sunday with just a few scattered showers in places. Highs on Sunday afternoon between 19 and 21c with a moderate westerly breeze. Clearing skies and reducing breezes tonight means a cooler night than of late (incidentally last Wednesday was the warmest night of this Summer here, a low of just 16.5c), temperatures down to 8 to 10c away from coasts. A ridge of high pressure builds in from the SW through Monday, a dry and bright day, some decent sunny spells, only the isolated light shower possible over Welsh hills, and a refreshing westerly breeze, highs of 18 or 19c for West Wales and 21c for the Midlands. Clear periods and quite a cool night again follows, minima ranging from 13c on coasts to 8c for some inland rural spots. High pressure over southern England on Tuesday, warm and sunny for the Midlands, sunny spells too for West Wales, although perhaps clouding over later in the afternoon here. Highs on Tuesday a pleasant 20 or 21c for West Wales and 24c for the Midlands.[/font]

    [font=Helvetica]A weakening disturbance tracks close to NW UK on Wednesday, so perhaps more in the way of cloud and even a shower or two in places, and a very slight chance of isolated thunder, but many places remaining dry. Rather warm and humid on Wednesday, maxima generally between 21 and 25c, highest over the Midlands, where warm sunny breaks are more likely afternoon. Clear spells overnight with lows 11 to 14c. High pressure centred to our NE over Scandinavia on Thursday with a warm to very warm SE to east flow advecting our way off the Continent. Models varying in just how warm this air will be, but the potential for temperatures to reach 27c 80f in places on Thursday, and with plenty of strong sunshine and gentle breezes. A clear night to follow so at least temperatures drop to a comfortable 11 to 14c. [/font]

    [font=Helvetica]Diverging model outputs from Friday - as should be expected with a Bank Holiday weekend imminent! A lot of uncertainty then with the holiday weekend, and some may be disappinted after all the media hype for a prolonged late August heatwave, conversely it may still turn out warm and reasonably dry! High pressure may well though not be in ascendance by next weekend, although we may avoid a washout weekend at least. Friday first, and another very warm day is likely, but there are suggstiions of a thundery breakdown later in the day and into Saturday. Sunny spells should be expected on Friday with maxima of 23 to 27c widely, and then by evening some showers or thunderstorms could be affecting some areas.[/font]

    [font=Helvetica]The all important weekend, and the latest GFS model brings a low right over Wales and England, producing showers and longer spells of rain along with a marked cool down. That's the bad news..the good news is that this particular model run is a marked 'outlier' with little support from the rest of the 'model suite'! Here, we shall 'go' with the ECM model along with much previous recent GFS output which has shown reasonable consistency in having high pressure over northern UK, and so painting a somewhat drier even pleasant picture. [/font]

    [font=Helvetica]Next weekend then is expected to see plenty of dry and warm weather with sunny intervals at least, but also the risk of some rain or showers at times. Greatest risk the further south you are of some thundery rain or showers, and more especially on Saturday it is felt, as ECM has a thundery low over northern France for Saturday. West Wales looks most favoured for some warm and fairly sunny conditions at times over the Bank Holiday weekend due to the anticipated NE flow which will serve to break the cloud crossing the hills to our east. [/font]
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