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TonyH

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  1. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Unsettled, showery rain at times; warm to average temperatures[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Last week was mostly dry at least after the showers early in the week. Most places warmed up mid week, with some quite high temperatures for May. The past 3 days all exceeded 21c here at Llanwnnen, while Pershore, Worcestershire was the warmest in the UK on Friday at 23c, and with many parts of the Midlands reached 21c to 23c on Friday and Saturday. However some places also had a barely noticeable ground frost or two during the week, here Saturday it started off at a chilly 2.3c to remind us it is still only Spring! In contrast the past 3 nights in Coventry have not dropped below 9c. Unsettled in the coming week as low pressure takes hold but with respectable temperatures. Not straightforward to detail this week's weather, and especially rainfall distribution, with a static low close to our shores all week, and so quite a bit of variation to be expected between our regions some days, particularly this may be applicable to Thursday.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Warm again on Sunday, clouding over this afternoon for West Wales (WW) while some good sunny spells still for the Midlands if turning more hazy. Quite a windy afternoon for WW, just the chance of a shower by this evening. Highs 20 to 23c inland, best for the Midlands. A diffuse area of low pressure to our west forms a centre close to SW England on Monday. We are still in a warm SE feed of air from off the Continent and for the Midlands it may be another dry and warm day with some sunshine. For Wales though, showery outbreaks of rain on and off through the day, some heavy bursts and the chance of thunder. Some warm sunny intervals also. Parts of the Midlands also catching a sharp shower or two on Monday, but some decent sunny intervals here. Maxima around 19c for WW and 22c for the Midlands and light winds. A very mild night to follow some places not dropping below 12c. The same low still close by our SW on Tuesday, a cold front slowly edging NE with showery rain and perhaps thunder. Locally some spots catching heavy downpours in a short period, but very hit and miss in nature the showers on Tuesday. Still some sunny intervals, but generally a rather cloudy day, quite warm and humid feeling though highs 18 to 21c. The showers clear to a fresher night, although not expecting the ground frost that GFS is showing so expect lows around 5c in the countryside, higher for towns, cities and coasts. Difficulty in detail with this slack lowish pressure set up prevailing, but Wednesday perhaps not a bad day, we may miss the worst of the showers! Sunny intervals, the odd shower if you are unlucky and reasonably warm again, highs 18 to 21c. More in the way of showery rain a possibility for Wednesday evening, with a chance of thunder.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Still a messy picture chart wise for Thursday, although the signals are for it to be the wettest day of the week. Hard to say where the rain band will lie, but for some areas a wet period in prospect on Thursday. Highs just 14c where it rains a lot, and 17c where there are sunny intervals and it is relatively dry, so a cooler day all around. Although pressure is undergoing a rise by next Friday, low pressure is still close enough to the NW for showers and possible longer spells of rain at times. There should be some decent dry, brighter interludes too over the Spring Bank Holiday weekend between the showers, as always in such set ups some areas escape the worst and wonder what all the fuss is about! Temperatures in the region of the seasonal average over the weekend with highs anticipated in the 15 to 20c range.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=213330:PPVG89 showery esp WW warm Mon.png][attachment=213331:ecmt850.072 showery rain warm Tu.png][attachment=213332:PPVJ89 warm showery rain, local downpours Tu.png][attachment=213333:PPVL89 r warm few showers WE.png][attachment=213334:ecmt850.120 wet in places Th.png][attachment=213335:h850t850eu cooler, wet band TH.png][attachment=213336:PPVO89 messy wet in places Th.png][attachment=213337:ecmt850.168 unsettled weekend ave temps.png][attachment=213338:prcpSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion rain at times.png][attachment=213339:prmslSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion pr rise FR.png][attachment=213340:t850Shropshire warmish week ahead.png][attachment=213341:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color]
  2. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Mostly cold and frosty with a few wintry showers but often dry; more unsettled with snow risk Tuesday to Thursday[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights[/b]

    A mild start to last week - it reached 12c in places on Monday which was a wet day especially for West Wales (WW). It turned colder on Tuesday with some areas getting snow, parts of WW saw quite a bit, several inches on high ground, even Llanwnnen collected 3cm relatively low down by the Teifi valley. Further wintry showers into Tuesday evening and night with vivid lightning and thunder across Wales, large hail and a tornado affecting Haverfordwest! Quite strange to watch the lightning flashing away while stood on a snow covered lawn! Wednesday evening and night saw heavy rain and strong to gale force winds, about an inch of rain for much of Wales and the Cotswolds, and locally damaging winds, highest gusts 96mph Capel Curig, 83mph Aberdaron, 81mph Mumbles with 61mph here at Llanwnnen (site record SRB 2013) Parts of the Midlands relatively unscathed though getting little rain and shelter from the worst of the winds. The low did have a warm sector overnight Wednesday when temperatures widely 10 or 11c. Chilly then since Thursday with wintry showers and some further temporary slight snow coverings in places, particularly Friday night (1cm Llanwnnen) and including parts of the Cotswolds and South Midlands. A fresh 10cm lay over the Brecon Beacons on Saturday morning.

    The first 17 days of January have been wet across Wales and much of the Midlands, but only a little above average for some parts of the Midlands, 125mm so far here at Llanwnnen, 41mm at Coventry, and 31mm Long Lawford thus far. It has been a mild month to date.

    [b]The week ahead[/b]

    Quite a cold week ahead, indeed it looks like being the coldest week since March 2013 such was the absence of cold throughout last Winter. Sunny intervals and a few wintry showers for the most part with plenty of dry, bright weather between, and frosty nights. However Tuesday and Wednesday sees an unsettled interlude, and given the chilly air there could be some sleet and snow about, although this perhaps not widespread at lower levels, for high ground (above say 250m) though the mid week period will be quite snowy with a good few inches settling up there.

    A frosty, sunny Sunday morning for many, largely dry this aftenoon with further sunny spells and the odd wintry shower, especially for Pembrokeshire as a 'Dangler' shower line may set up. Rather cold highs between 4 and 6c with a moderate north breeze. Clear and calm tonight with a sharp frost and freezing fog in places, lows between -3 and -6c, milder for most coasts. A slight ridge over us for Monday so a dry cold day in store. Freezing fog patches may be slow to clear and where these linger temperatures struggling to reach 0c, but elsewhere sunny spells and chilly highs between 2 and 4c with little wind. Another frost sets in during Monday evening and a dry, frosty night for the Midlands down as low as -4c, but clouding over WW by around midnight.

    Tricky predictions follow with fine and shifting margins dictating just where it will rain or snow: an occluded front edges east during Tuesday this bringing some rain, sleet and snow across Wales in the early hours, snow more likely inland and especially above 150m. This mix of precipitation moves onto the Midlands through Tuesday morning, again rain or sleet more likely at low levels with snow tending to be restricted to land above about 150m but this by no means certain, and it could turn out that even some low level places see snow falling at least for a time on Tuesday. Coastal areas of WW for sure will only be getting rain however. The wintry mix in any case clears WW afternoon with sunny intervals and the odd wintry shower following before dusk. Highs Tuesday between 2 and 5c with quite light winds. Some clearances during Tuesday evening with frost readily forming, however another wintry band of weather is set to move in from the WNW during the night. Slightly colder air digging in and so perhaps this band falling more generally as sleet or snow, with hills in particularly getting several cm coverings, but even some lower ground could have a covering come Wednesday morning.

    A flabby low slowly sinks south over the UK during Wednesday and with the still rather cold airmass there could be some wintry surprises for some! Bands of wintry precipitation or wintry showers within the lows circulation, although equally there will be areas where it is largely dry. All we can say is that there is a risk of snow for some places once more, perhaps the NE Midlands most at risk? Other places will see only rain, sleet or hail (especially coasts) while others escape largely dry, but for some of us a snowfall will occur during Wednesday even giving some accumulation. For hills above about 250m it should be snow all the way so long as precipitation is falling that is, with a good few inches settling should this happen. Maxima Wednesday generally 2 to 4c, perhaps 6c for coastal SW Wales. Wintry showers and some longer spells of sleet or snow continue well into Wednesday night, with perhaps the Midlands seeing a spell of snow and a covering even to lower levels by Thursday morning, but anywhere really could wake to a covering of snow. Clear intervals too which will allow slight frosts to form and so there will be icy stretches to watch for even if no snow cover exists, lows down to -2c in places.

    During Thursday the low sinks south into the Continent, a drier, brighter day expected with sunny intervals, but still some further wintry showers about and a cold NE breeze, highs just 2 to 4c. Any showers die out pm Thursday and it will be a frosty night, minima between -3 and -5c generally and even colder where there is snow cover, perhaps a -9c here and there. By the end of the week a degree of uncertainty as to whether the cold weather relinquishes or holds on over the weekend? On the whole a prediction of it staying on the cold side through most of the weekend would seem applicable. Plenty of dry weather for Friday and Saturday then but some further wintry outbreaks are possible in places too but these probably not widespread if at all. Some sunny spells and frosty nights. Sunday too could hold onto chilly and fairly dry weather..
    [attachment=239881:PPVG89 dry frost poss ff MO cold.png][attachment=239882:ecmt850.048 cold frosty Mo.png][attachment=239883:PPVJ89 wintry mix r cold Tu.png][attachment=239885:ecmt850.072 unsettled TU WE wintry mix chiefly hill snow r cold.png][attachment=239886:ecmt850.096 cold wintry precip about WE.png][attachment=239893:PPVL89 wintry mix WE chiefly hill snow cold.png][attachment=239898:viewimage wintry bands about We cold.png][attachment=239890:ecmt850.144 disruption wintry chances later FR.png][attachment=239887:viewimage wintry mix disturbance r cold Sa.png][attachment=239892:ecmt850.168 frsoty R Su.png][attachment=239894:viewimage precip TU WE otherwise m dry.png][attachment=239895:viewimage r cold week.png][attachment=239896:viewimage unsettled mid week.png][attachment=239897:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color]
  3. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Unsettled, rain and strong winds at times; average to mild temperatures[/b]

    Most places reached 13 or 14c mid week, well above the mid November average (10c). Llanwnnen saw the highest reading of the month (13c) on Tuesday afternoon soon followed by the lowest (-1.6c) on Thursday morning. This was due to the importation of less mild Continental air late on Wednesday bringing clearing skies which caused all the fog and local frost on Thursday. It was notable how thick was the fog on the Bablake School, Coventry webcam even into Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile Aberystwyth had a lovely sunny and mild Thursday - big contrasts on that day as Lampeter remained mainly cloudy and cool. A reasonably dry week until the rain Friday evening and night. Plenty of rain in the coming week, heavy at times for west Wales, where a couple of inches is set to fall during the week. Temperatures on the mild side until it cools off by Friday, with frosts likely to be a feature over the weekend again.

    A hard frost last night, the coldest of the season to date, down to -5.2c in this particular frost hollow, and colder than any of the official stations in the UK! A fine, fairly sunny afternoon as we are under this transient ridge of high pressure. Atlantic fronts are approaching as witnessed by an increasing veil of high Cirrus cloud through the afternoon which makes the sunshine more hazy over west Wales. So with increasing cloud and breeze this evening means no frost bar a brief touch for parts of the Midlands possibly. Rain and drizzle from later evening for west Wales lasting through to Monday morning, the rain not reaching the Midlands until the end of the night. The cold front brings a period of heavier rain with strong winds through west Wales tomorrow morning and onto the Midlands in the afternoon, this clearing west Wales to a few afternoon showers and sunny intervals. Temperatures reaching a fairly mild 10 to 12c during Monday afternoon.
    [attachment=144809:PPVG89 Mon CF rain and wind.png]

    From Tuesday through to Thursday we are influenced by a complex of lows close by to our west and north. This means a fairly mild and windy spell, with rain fronts never far away. Tuesday sees active fronts crossing all parts, with spells of rain and strong winds again, but as the winds are southerly we are in a mild air mass, maxima of 13 or 14c. The rain should clear by Tuesday night, then a bit of a respite from the rain during Wednesday and Thursday for the Midlands at least. This is due to a ridge of high pressure nosing towards eastern England and holding the fronts out west. This means that the rain fronts will be slow moving somewhere over western parts mid week. The wet zone was being predicted across west Wales, however this has trended further west over Ireland. There is then still the threat of wet weather edging in from time to time over west Wales during Wednesday and Thursday, although probably not the washout that was previously modelled. A stab at Wednesday and Thursday would be mostly cloudy and windy for west Wales with some rain and drizzle at times, this perhaps turning heavy at times, more especially over Pembrokeshire, where there could be localised flooding. For the Midlands a fairly dry but rather windy couple of days, plenty of cloud, but the sun managing to break through from time to time, and also the possibility of a little drizzle in places too. Continuing on the mild side for all areas, maxima between 10 and 12c with night frosts very unlikely.
    [attachment=144810:PPVJ89 very unsettled mild windy Tue.png][attachment=144811:ecmt850.048 rain bands mild wind mon Tue.png][attachment=144812:h850t850eu respite Wed.png][attachment=144813:PPVO89 rain W dry E Thu.png][attachment=144814:ecmt850.096 rain west dry east Thu.png]

    Finally, by Thursday night and Friday, the trough is slowly making its way across the UK bringing rain bands or showers to all parts, some of these heavy especially in the west. Lighter winds and a cooler feel for Friday, maxima of 8 to 10c. With clearing skies on Friday night a ground frost is likely.
    [attachment=144815:met.120 Tr makes it Thu night.png]

    The usual uncertainty by next weekend, our trough should have either weakened or edged away east by Saturday, allowing high pressure into the south. Tentatively then - another largely dry, rather cool and bright interlude for next weekend. Decent sunny intervals and just a few showers about, with frosty nights is how it's looking at the moment. There is though the alternative hypothesis that this could change to a continued unsettled outlook such is the range of possibilities on offer at this range.
    [attachment=144816:h850t850eu weekend R.png][attachment=144817:ecmt850.168 rather unsettled again weeknd.png]
  4. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
    [b]Headline: Becoming mostly dry and rather cold with some frosty and foggy nights[/b][/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
    [b]Last weeks highlights[/b]

    Frosty nights early last week, Sunday night registered a low of -4.8c here at Llanwnnen, which, as occasionally happens, was colder than any of the official UK weather stations, Pembrey Sands (Carms) being the coldest of these at min -3.1c along with Benson (Oxon). A lovely sunny Monday followed but it felt a bit more like Winter, 7c the high here inland compared with 11.6c at Milford Haven on the coast - the mildest spot in the UK. Monday night even colder for many places, the -5.2c here seems to have been coldest in the UK again! However I only need delve back into the record books one year to find a colder November night, that of 23/11/13 was a chilling -7.3c in our garden. At Bablake, Coventry -2.6c did though make it the coldest November night for 4 years (-8.5c there during the severe late November 2010 cold spell) [url="http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/"]Bablake WS[/url] Freezing fog quite widespread on Monday night especially over the Midlands, the slow clearance of this restricted daytime temperatures to just 3c at Sennybridge and 4c at Coleshill Tuesday. Mild weather returned by the end of last week though, on Friday Pembrey got up to 13.7c, even milder Saturday when Trawsgoed near Aberystwyth was the warm spot at max 15.6c with plenty of sunshine! Rainfall amounts generally rather negligible last week although the Midlands was damp at times.

    November 2014 has been a mild month, indeed 2014 could be the warmest year in the 350 year Central England Temperature (CET) series - only a cold December would scupper this! Rainfall has been quite variable from place to place during November; the wettest regions being Pembrokeshire and parts of the Midlands with respect to the average, with Anglesey and the Aberystwyth area having quite a dry month. Some monthly totals with % of average:

    Llanwnnen 139mm 97%
    Aberporth 122mm 112%
    Trawsgoed 108mm 76%
    Pembrey Sands 159mm approx 129%
    [b]Milford Haven 186mm approx 141%[/b]
    [b]Valley, Anglesey 60mm approx 58%[/b]
    Coventry 87.4mm 150%
    Church Lawford 68.4mm 113%
    Long Lawford 71mm 127%
    Pershore 99mm 175%
    Little Rissington: 95mm 125%


    [b]The week ahead[/b]

    Early December looks to be shaping up mostly dry but colder as successive high pressure areas affect the UK, with us now into being Winter any clear skies will readily lead to sharp night frosts and the formation of thick fog patches, this can be reluctant to lift with the sun now at its weakest. Often fairly cold then looking ahead, but little sign of pronounced cold weather as yet! Sunday is another dry, mild day with sunny spells and just light winds, highs 11 to 13c, and the last time we are likely to experience such mildness for several weeks at least! Clear intervals tonight could give localised ground frost and fog patches, lowest temperatures 1 or 2c. Generally dry but somewhat cooler on Monday, variable and rather extensive cloud, misty for parts of the Midlands, maxima 8 to 10c, a few places catching a drizzly shower perhaps. During Monday night a weakening cold front moves down from the NW this bringing some rain to West Wales (WW) around midnight. Only a little rain left on the front as it arrives across the Midlands by dawn Tuesday and some places remain dry here. Lows Monday night 3 to 5c.

    The front lingers but fizzles out over the East Midlands during Tuesday, so rather cloudy and cool for the East Midlands still with a little rain or drizzle in places. Elsewhere a dry day with sunny intervals, decent sunny spells even for WW. Colder with a keen NE breeze highs 6 to 8c. By Tuesday night we are under a ridge from off the Atlantic, clear spells and a widespread frost lowest temperatures -3c or -4c for prone spots of Wales, but more generally around zero. Perhaps some mist and fog patches too by morning. High pressure over the UK on Wednesday, dry with some sunshine, WW most favoured with shelter from the NE breeze. Rather cold maxima on Wednesday generally of 5 to 7c but 9c possible for parts of the WW coast where it may be quite a nice sunny day! Frost and local fog develops once again on Wednesday night given clear periods, down below zero fairly widely, again -3c even -4c for the coldest spots.

    Still a dry chilly picture Thursday too, sunny spells if you are fortunate, mistly and cold if not! Highs for most in the 5 to 8c range and with light winds again. Widespread slight frost and fog in places once more Thursday night, -3c possible for inland Wales. Friday may see a weak cold front crossing the UK from the NW but it is doubtful this will produce much if any rain, a rather cold day once more should be expected with plenty of cloud. The next belt of high pressure looks like extending across southern Britain next weekend, so the mostly dry weather continues with further frost and fog by night. HIghs still below average so expect no better than 5 to 7c, colder where mist and fog lingers into the afternoon, with sunny spells where it clears or did not form in the first place.
    [attachment=231344:PPVG89 m dry r cloudy MO.png][attachment=231345:PPVJ89 m dry colder Tu.png][attachment=231346:ecmt850.072 m dry bright colder Tu.png][attachment=231347:PPVL89 dry r cold WE.png][attachment=231350:h850t850eu dry r cold WE frost local fog.png][attachment=231348:ecmt850.096 dry chilly frost and fog WE TH.png][attachment=231349:PPVO89 dry bright W cloudier Mid TH.png][attachment=231351:ecmt850.168 dry weekend night frost and fog.png][attachment=231352:h850t850eu dry chilly weekend fr fo likely.png][attachment=231353:prcpWest~Midlands m dry week.png][attachment=231354:prmslWest~Midlands mostly H all week.png][attachment=231355:t850West~Midlands r cold after MO.png][attachment=231356:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color]
  5. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Rather unsettled and cool, rain at times mainly mid week; fine and warm from Friday[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Some pleasant sunny spells last week, although Thursday, and in some places Friday too, turned out disappointing with quite a drop of rain, and wetter and cooler than anticipated in the previous guide. Ceredigion was the coldest part of the UK on Monday night, with lows of 2c at Swyddffynnon and Llanwnnen and a grass frost - yes in late June! June 2013 has been fairly dry but slightly cool overall, rainfall figures:[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Llanwnnen: 53mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Rugby: 33mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Coventry: 56mm one of a few locally average spots![/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Another somewhat changeable week ahead, some, but not an awful lot of rain at times, and temperatures mostly on the cool side for July. Average maxima for July are as follows and as warm as they will get during the course of a year:[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Lampeter: 20c[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Aberystwyth: 20c[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Coventry: 22c[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Although a cloudy start in places on Sunday, sunshine is breaking through, and we should all be seeing warm sunny spells through this afternoon, although coastal West Wales cloudier and cooler, even some drizzle in places here. Highs on Sunday afternoon ranging from 24c for the East Midlands to 17c for Pembrokeshire coasts. A weakening front brings cloud to all of us this evening, again with drizzle in places, then overnight clear intervals develop and a cooler fresher night, lows of 9 to 11c. A weak ridge of high pressure follows for Monday, a bright, cool day with a westerly breeze, sunny intervals and the odd light shower, although SW Wales could end up with a nice, sunny evening. Highs on Monday just 15c for coastal West Wales and 18c for the Midlands. Dry and quite cool on Monday night with lows around 9c. Turning unsettled for the mid week period as Atlantic lows march across towards Scotland. Fronts bringing rain to Wales from early Tuesday morning, this spreading into Midlands by midday, although this may turn lighter and patchy through the afternoon, before a wet evening for West Wales. Cool with all the cloud on Tuesday, highs of just 14c or so for West Wales, but 18c for the Midlands, where a few brighter chinks may occur. Further rain at times through Tuesday night, much of it quite light though. Quite a strong SW wind for Tuesday evening and night, especially over western coasts.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]One low is moving away on Wednesday with another hard on its heels moving to the NW of Ireland. A bit messy, various fronts and bits and pieces of rain or drizzle, equally some sunshine in places and feeling muggy over the Midlands, highs again showing the west: east disparity, ranging from 16c for coastal Wales to 20c over parts of the Midlands. A more appreciable spell of rain and strong winds likely overnight Wednesday into Thursday along the cold front of the system, a possibility the rain could linger a while, but Thursday more likely to eventually be a brighter day of sunny intervals and a few showers. Quite cool again on Thursday highs 16 to 19c west to middle. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Improvements from Friday, as high pressure takes charge over the UK, it will be dry and bright with sunny spells, warm over the Midlands, maxima up to 23c, but cooler with onshore breezes keeping it closer to 19c for coasts of West Wales. High pressure looks like remaining in control over next weekend also, so the promise of a fine, reasonably sunny and warm one, potentially very warm by Sunday when 26c may be reached over the Midlands, but refreshing sea breezes for the Welsh coasts, 20c nearer the mark here. The likelihood that it could warm up even further early in the week that follows, into the 80's even![/size][/font]
    [attachment=176251:PPVG89 wk R m dry cool Mon.png][attachment=176252:ecmt850.072 rain times Tue.png][attachment=176253:PPVO89 rain to showers Thu windy.png][attachment=176254:ecmt850.120 H moves into Eng dry r warm Fri.png][attachment=176255:h850t850eu mostly settled warm weekend.png][attachment=176256:h850t850eu mostly settled warm weekend.png][attachment=176257:t850Caerdydd~-~Cardiff.png]
  6. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Average start then appreciable cool down; fairly dry but a few showers, rain threatening the Midlands Friday[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Cool last week, with frost, sleet and even snow for high ground! Many of us saw several ground frosts, and even an air frost for a few places. Lowest readings +1c for Coventry on Wednesday night and -1c here at Llanwnnen on Friday morning. Tuesday was very wet for SW Wales, 2 inches of rain fell at Llanwnnen while Pembrey Sands in Carmarthenshire had 3 inches, there were blobs of icy sleet on the windscreen as we drove about on Tuesday evening. Amazingly for mid May the Brecon Beacons and high ground over 400m had snow, with 2 inches of snow lying near Newcastle on Clun, close to Offa's Dyke in Shropshire. Not all doom and gloom as there were decent sunny spells between the scattered showers from Wednesday onwards and in these it felt reasonably warm even if temperatures remained below average. No day managed above 15c (59f) for SW Wales last week, although after this protracted cool weather even 13c in sunny spells felt pleasant enough on Saturday afternoon! SW Wales on Friday saw some very heavy downpours, with hail and thunderstorms, officially Milford Haven was the wettest place in the UK with 14mm from afternoon downpours, although the rainfall radar suggested that over 50mm fell between Haverfordwest and Narberth, and there was flooding reported near Whitland in Carmarthenshire. So far this month, 6 days have seen hail fall here at Llanwnnen, hail showers are more typical of early rather than late Spring! Apart from the soaking on Tuesday, parts of the Midland's missed the worst of the showers last week, less than 1mm falling at Coventry from Wednesday onwards. Russia and Eastern Europe has been enjoying very hot weather for the past week, it has topped 30c daily over parts of Russia...we can only dream..but at least the coming week is predominantly dry, although again temperatures will struggle to top the average and with another pronounced cool down mid week, giving further ground frosts and showers.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]On Saturday Wales and the Midlands were fortunate as all the wet weather kept to our north, and so we are again on Sunday with the rain to our south over the English Channel. We are getting the dregs of the heat that affected Eastern Europe that made it to the UK via looping up to Scandinavia (it's a long story)- the only true warmth though is at 5000 feet, at the surface the air is more moderated down to closer to the average. Sunny periods and feeling pleasant on Sunday, temperatures pushing 20c for parts of the Midlands, although generally more like 16 to 18c around the mid May mean. so not feeling too bad. A mild rather humid northerly flow for Monday, rather extensive cloud but sunny intervals breaking through at times, more especially out west. Weak fronts in the flow causing a little rain or a shower in places, these more likely over the Midlands. Maxima on Monday 16 to 19c, but cooler on some coasts, A noticeably milder Monday night lows of 8 to 10c, Tuesday is another day of variable and in places extensive cloud cover with sunny intervals, but equally the odd spit of rain or light shower. The relatively warm air hangs on with highs of 15 to 18c generally, although cooler for coasts having onshore breezes, North Wales and southern Cardigan Bay for example. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Early on Wednesday a weak cold front clears south to leave a bright but fresher day, the start of a cool northerly plunge of air between high pressure over the Atlantic and low pressure over Scandinavia. Wednesday then some good sunny spells and only a few showers, again these most likely for the Midlands, with a heavy shower possible for the East Midlands later in the day. Maxima just 12 to 15c, poor for late May. Even cooler air pushes down from the north on Thursday, with -5c 'upper' temperatures at 5000 feet, this notably cold for late May, and this means snow showers for the Scottish Highlands again! Clearing skies lead to a widespread ground frost on Wednesday night, and it will be a sunny start to Thursday. However, cumulus clouds will soon develop in the unstable air mass with convective showers scattered about for the afternoon. Some heavy showers in places with hail and thunder a possibility, although West Wales coasts more likely to stay fine and dry. Maxima very cool on Thursday at 10 to 13c in spite of the sunny intervals! Clearing skies on Thursday night means another widespread ground frost, even the risk of localised air frost, my garden perhaps a 'favoured' spot for this, lows generally 0 to 3c (this less than a month from the longest day!)[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]On Friday we are still in the very cool Arctic northerly, with the added complication that a deep low may track down the North Sea threatening wet weather for Eastern England, while at the same time high pressure is attempting to push into Ireland. A stab then at Friday, would be sunny spells and some showers, parts of West Wales escaping these, while the Midlands catches a few heavy downpours. The chance that the low encroaches close enough later Friday into Saturday to bring more general wet weather into the Midlands but this by no means definite. Cool or very cool Friday highs just 10 to 13c again, certainly feeling chilly in the shade! Next weekend a similar pattern of pressure high to our west and low to the east, however subtle differences. A 'warm' low will have dumb-belled about the previous 'cold' low and will be over the near Continent next weekend, introducing milder upper air. GFS brings shallow low pressure over southern Britain while ECM more inclined to keep this at bay. The suggestion is of a somewhat unsettled weekend, showers in places but other areas escaping and remaining fairly dry, temperatures still no great shakes as the milder uppers are not likely to be realised at the surface with the predominating NE flow. Overall for the next seven days West Wales largely dry, the Midlands more at risk of any rain or showers, reasonable temperatures to start with, but becoming very cool from mid week.[/size][/font]
  7. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][b]Headline: Unsettled with further rain at times; often mild but a cool windy blip Tuesday[/b][/size][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][b]Last weeks highlights: [/b][/size][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]Last week began cool and in places wet, on Monday most places only reached 11 to 13c. Wet across the Midlands and South Wales, but much of West Wales (WW) narrowly missed this soaking. Parts of the Midlands had around an inch of rain Monday, wettest being Pershore, Worc 26.8mm. Torrential downpours over Wales on Thursday heralded the arrival of warm, humid sub- tropical air, 13mm in one hour at Llanwnnen lunchtime followed by rather warm, sunny intervals and a high of 16.6c, well above the mid October norm (14c). Thursday ended up the wettest day of the month so far with a total 31.9mm here. Many places have already exceeded their October rainfall averages, here at Llanwnnen the figure is 163mm to date (average 143mm) while Coventry is on 62mm (average 59.4mm). The very mild weather has lasted through until this weekend, Friday night was exceptionally mild for October, the low of 15.0c here being the warmest so far into October that I have recorded. Most of Wales and the Midlands remained above 15c in fact, with Trawsgoed, Mumbles and Pembrey even warmer not falling below 16c! Saturday in spite of being a windy day generally was the mildest day of the week, most places attaining 17 to 19c, not at all bad as we approach November![/size][/font][/color]


    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][size=4][b]The week ahead:[/b][/size]

    [size=4]Unsettled again in the coming week, further rain at times, although perhaps not quite as wet as was last week, with the Midlands favoured for several essentially dry days; often mild, but with a cool blip Tuesday. Sunday is very mild again, after a warm night, quite a windy day, sunny intervals and a few scattered showers with highs 16 to 18c. Showers may become heavier and more frequent as we go through this afternoon over NW Wales and Cardigan Bay. A few showers keep up tonight for these same exposed areas but elsewhere a largely dry night with the wind easing and mild lows close to 10c. Brisk westerly winds brings a mix of sunny intervals and mostly light showers for Monday, the Midlands may be afforded shelter from the showers, quite mild at 13 to 15c. During Monday night a nasty little low which contains the remnants of ex- hurricane Gonzalo zips across Scotland. Although the worst of the wind and rain is over northern Britain, all of us see a spell of heavy rain after midnight along with a strong SW veering west wind with gales for exposed areas. The rain will have cleared all but the SE Midlands by dawn Tuesday. Tuesday itself is a cool, windy, showery day, fresh to strong NW winds feeding showers, some with hail, to typically exposed areas such as NW Wales, Cardigan Bay and the NW Midlands (Staffs to Birmingham), while elsewhere it could stay essentially dry and bright, just the odd rogue shower. Cool highs 10 to 12c. Showers die out Tuesday night with clear spells but not especially cold as a a breeze continues, so no lower than 5c to 7c.[/size]

    [size=4]High pressure close to our south over France on Wednesday, near enough for a largely dry and bright day, especially Midlands, however a weak warm front clouds it over for WW afternoon with drizzle in places later. Maxima back up to the late October averages of 12 to 14c but it will be a breezy day. By Wednesday night we are in a broad warm sector bringing some rain and drizzle to WW in particular. A mild night no lower than 10c, and in fact temperatures may well be on the rise after midnight. A very mild SW flow for Thursday, lots of cloud but it could brighten a little over the Midlands where temperatures reach 17 or 18c in places, compared with 14 or 15c WW and where there will be further mostly light rain and drizzle on and off. The Midlands not immune from the odd spit of drizzle either, and quite a fresh SW wind on Thursday too. Mild and quite windy for Thursday night, further rain at time especially WW, not getting below 12c for most places. [/size]

    [size=4]A cold front sinking SE may well develop a wave during Friday across southern Britain, and so stalling its progress, there is then potential that some areas see a thoroughly wet day, but hard to say exactly where, and no doubt some of us miss the worst of this (if it happens). Uncertainties as usual for next weekend although signals suggest further rain in places on Saturday, with Sunday having the better chance for dry weather, temperatures at least up to average. Some of the models are going for high pressure and a dry end to October, this far from conclusive however![/size]
    [size=4][attachment=227415:PPVG89 breezy light showers Mo.png][attachment=227416:PPVI89 Gonzalo Mo night.png][attachment=227417:Recm482 Gonzalo wind rain Mo night.gif][attachment=227418:h850t850eu Gonzalo mon night.png][attachment=227419:h850t850eu cool showers Tu.png][attachment=227420:Recm962 m dry bright WEd.gif][attachment=227421:h850t850eu m dry bright dr later WW.png][attachment=227422:prcpWarwickshire rain times drier Mids We Th.png][attachment=227423:metslp.120 developing wave FR potentially wet.png][attachment=227424:Recm1442 potentially wet spell FR.gif][attachment=227425:Recm1682 changeable weekend.gif][attachment=227426:prcpWarwickshire rain times drier Mids We Th.png][attachment=227427:t850Warwickshire mild week bar cool blip Tu.png][attachment=227428:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/size][/font][/color]
  8. TonyH
    [size=3][color=#000000][font=arial][b]Headline: Continuing very cold with more snow at times, snow cover persisting. Thaw possible next weekend[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]The snows duly arrived on Friday, for most of us. Carmarthen and some other spots somehow remained green oases in a white West Wales landscape, neighbouring Pembrokshire, Llanelli and all surrounding hills received at least a cm or so. Depths of snow heard about incude: Llanwnnen 9cm, Llanelli 4cm, Aberystwyth several cm, Coventry 15cm and Rugby 11cm. Also the River Teifi webcam, near Newcastle Emlyn showed that there escaped the snow too. Greatest depths were as predicted by the Met Office in the South Wales hills, with close on a foot! The snow has managed to stick with temperatures struggling to get much above freezing during this weekend, however with all the cloud there have not been any really cold nights yet in this spell, no nights below -3c here in West Wales in the past week. Much of the coming week remains very cold and with low pressure often close by, there will most likely be fresh snowfalls adding to what we already have, although it is going to be difficult to pinpoint just where and when these snowfalls will be, suffice to say that, much like todays fall in the Midlands, various areas will get surprised by new snowfalls. The thaw MAY arrive next weekend. [/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Much of the central Midlands is getting a fresh blanket of snow today, with several more inches widely and it is still coming down, Warwickshire and Birmingham is getting hardest hit by this snow, Nuneaton has had over 3 inches fresh snow today, an amount that was not being forecast even this morning! This is from a trough that has moved NW from France, and is also affecting East Wales. There may be some light snow flurries for mid and NW Wales too this evening, but not likely to amount to much here. So spells of moderate snow lasting most this evening over the Midlands giving several additional inches in places. Skies may clear after midnight in SW Wales and the south MIdlands leading to a sharp frost of -5c in places, but only -1c under the cloud further north.[/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Mondays charts are very messy looking with various slow moving fronts and little lows over or close to the UK. There will be snowfalls affecting various areas, most of the snow should be quite light, but as with today some spots could see a good few inches top up, more likely NW Wales and the NW Midlands perhaps, however, be aware that a surprise snow event could crop almost anywhere in such an ill defined synoptic set up! Another very cold day on Monday, temperatures again struggling to reach freezing point over the Midlands, and just 2 or 3c at best for West Wales. A day that fails to reach 0c is known as an 'Ice day', these are few and far between in a typical Winter in southern Britain, and in milder winters there may be none recorded at all.[/font][/color]
    [color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=156473:PPVE89 (1) cold messy snow in places.png][/font][/color]


    [color=#000000][font=arial]Another low tracks over SW England during Tuesday again engaging our cold air mass, before this another severe frost in places, down as low as -10c where there is deep snow cover coupled with clear skies. Snow at times then on Tuesday, more especially for West Wales, where heavy falls are possible locally. Very cold again, it will be an ice day in places, although SW Wales should manage 2c. The low edges into France through Wednesday but is close enough for snow showers to spread west from the North Sea, affecting mainly the Midlands, and with only a few expected to make it over the mountains to West Wales. An easterly breeze on Wednesday and again very low temperatures, maxima only 1 or 2c. [/font][/color]
    [color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=156474:PPVJ89 Ch L snow for S.png][attachment=156475:ecmt850.072 Ch L Tue night snow threat S.png][attachment=156480:h850t850eu slack E Wed.png][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]At this stage it looks like higher pressure builds over the UK for Thursday, which looks like a mostly dry but frosty day with sunny spells, maxima of just 1c, but reaching 3c for Pembrokeshire. Another sharp frost follows for Thursday night. Changes start from Friday, signalling a likely thaw for next weekend. A deep Atlantic low approaches Ireland late on Friday with strenghening southerly winds by evening over Wales. Friday could also be a mostly dry day, as high pressure is close to Eastern England, although snow or rain may affect West Wales by midnight. Possibly the last of the really cold days, Friday should be another ice day for the Midlands, and feeling raw with the freshening wind over West Wales, although temperatures here could be up to 4c or so by evening. [/font][/color]
    [color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=156476:PPVO89 m dry frosty Thu.png][attachment=156477:ecmt850.120 cold R Thu to Fri.png][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Very uncertain prospects for next weekend, some model runs recently have showed a big change to milder unsettled conditions, with 10c predicted for Wales, HOWEVER, the ending of a cold spell is hard to predict, and today's models have showed the cold block putting up much more of a fight over next weekend. There is then certainly the risk of a big 'battleground' snow event next weekend, the latest GFS run shows this, and east and north Wales and the Midlands would get a quite severe snowstorm, but with less cold air meaning rain or sleet for SW Wales away from high ground. ECM's latest offering has a deep low over SW England next Saturday night which would bring strong winds and blizzards for high ground at least! [/font][/color]
    [color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=156478:ecmt850.168 hill blizzard Sat night.png][attachment=156479:prectypeuktopo battleground event Sat.png][attachment=156481:h850t850eu possible battleground Sat.png][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]A very uncertain outlook then with the threat of snowfalls right through to next weekend, however we cannot dismiss those recent model runs that suggest a thaw over next weekend instead. Overall it is expected that there will eventually be a thaw next weekend, at least for West Wales, the snow possibly lasting longer over the Midlands.[/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]--
    Follow me on Twitter [url="https://twitter.com/Lampeterweather"]@Lampeterweather[/url][/font][/color][/size]
  9. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Very warm and mostly dry with sunny spells; increasing chance of thundery showers from mid week.[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Again, as has been the case with much of this rather fine Summer to date, there was plenty of reasonably dry weather during the past 7 days, Llanwnnen one of the drier areas having just 8mm rain in total last week. The much heralded 'Spanish Plume' arrived with vivid lightning displays and thunderstorms on Thursday night/ early Friday, however these did not produce much rain except very locally. Thursday and Friday saw the highest temperatures of 2014 so far for most places, highest temperature readings of the week include 26.3c Llanwnnen and 26.7c Pershore on Thursday, 28.4c Coleshill, 28.4c Coventry, 27.9c Church Lawford and 26.2c Trawsgoed on Friday. These temperatures well down though on the 32.3c (90f) recorded at Gravesend, Kent on Friday, which was the hottest of the year so far for the UK. Nights were warm and sticky too to end the week, on Thursday night the temperature fell to just 17.8c here at Llanwnnen, some 7c above average minima for July, and the warmest night recorded here in the past 9 years. Some other parts of Wales were even warmer with 19.5c Pembrey Sands and 19.1c Trawscoed being the 'lows'. Widespread thunderstorms over the Midlands on Saturday, a few for parts of Wales too. These gave locally very heavy falls of rain and with hail in places, and caused flooding in such places as Gloucester, Shropshire, Nuneaton and Coventry. Around an inch (25mm) of rain falling in one hour in some places, Westonbirt, Gloucestershire the wettest spot having 79mm (over 3 inches) rain on Saturday! These storms did herald cooler weather on Saturday when Cardigan Bay coasts did not exceed 19c.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The weather has not though changed to an unsettled pattern as yet, and this coming week sees the return of fine and very warm, perhaps even quite hot conditions, although there will be a few showers or thunderstorms about too in places on some days especially towards the end of the week. Sunday, and the west is in cooler air while the warm, thundery air is never far from the Midlands. Sunny intervals today, so warming up nicely, some heavy showers and thunderstorms scattered about this afternoon, localised and mostly only affecting to the east of Birmingham, but again, locally will cause flooding. For West Wales (WW) we should escape with a largely dry day, just the slim chance of a shower here. Highs on Sunday 21 to 24c, so rather warm, but fresher feeling than of late, except over the East Midlands where it is still quite humid.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Monday sees a ridge of high pressure building in from the SW, so a mainly dry day, just the outside chance of a light shower. Sunny spells and maxima a warm 22 to 25c, cooler for many coasts where nearer 20c. A dry night with clear spells and lows between 9 and 13c so comfortable. High pressure over Scandinavia from Tuesday with a feed of very warm easterly winds from Europe. Relatively high pressure over the UK again on Tuesday itself, although a weak front bringing areas of cloud and a few afternoon showers to the Midlands in particular, for most places another dry warm day though, highs widely 23 to 26c even along Cardigan Bay, the NE breeze more noticeable over the East Midlands. Wednesday is similarly fine day with further spells of sunshine, sunny even for the west. A very warm day, maxima pushing 80f reaching 25 to 27c, perhaps West Wales warmest due to the easterly breeze and hence the air has travelled furthest over land to reach here. Just the odd shower or thunderstorm being set off by the heat later in the afternoon or during the evening over the Welsh hills. A mild largely dry night follows, lows mostly 12 to 15c.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The very warm Continental ENE flow continues for Thursday and Friday too, further generally dry days with sunny periods and highs in the 24 to 28c range, some coasts pleasantly cooler with sea breezes. Dry for the most part, but with a scattering of sharp showers or thunderstorms getting going for the afternoons and evenings. A greater chance of seeing a thunderstorm on Thursday or Friday it has to be said, even the hint of a thundery plume showing on some models come Friday. Naturally model differences for as far in the future as next weekend, some showing a continuation of the mostly dry and very warm weather (ECM) whilst others eventually turn it cooler and more unsettled (GFS). However Saturday at least should see a continuation of the very warm weather with scattered thundery showers.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=219599:PPVG89 (1) m dry warm MO.png][attachment=219600:PPVJ89 m dry warm poss sh Mids TU.png][attachment=219601:ecmt850.072 VW m dry TU WE.png][attachment=219602:PPVL89 dry VW WE.png][attachment=219603:PPVO89 VW few thundery sh TH.png][attachment=219604:h850t850eu VW few thundery sh TH.png][attachment=219605:ecmt850.144 some storms TH FR.png][attachment=219606:h850t850eu heat thunder chances FR.png][attachment=219607:ecmt850.168 m dry VW weekend.png][attachment=219608:h850t850eu warm more unsettled weekend.png][attachment=219609:prmslWarwickshire fine toi mid week then thundery chances.png][attachment=219610:t850Warwickshire warm to hot week.png][attachment=219611:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color]
  10. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3]
    [b]Headline: Mild to very mild; spells of rain, some heavy, windy at times[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]After a cool start last week was mild for the most part with rain at times, most places receiving between one and two inches of rain through the past 7 days. Monday was very cool over the Midlands with Coventry reaching just 10c, 4c below the mid October average, then by Saturday 18c was recorded widely across the Midlands and also parts of Wales. Some places caught a thundery downpour on Saturday too. Another unsettled but mild week ahead with further heavy rain and strong winds at times.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    The early part of this week is controlled by a complex area of low pressure close to Ireland, so often wet and windy but mild. Sunday afternoon is showery, heavy and squally showers quickly passing through, the chance of a clap of thunder for some, although one or two spots missing them completely. Sunny intervals between and we are still in a very mild air mass, so temperatures up to 15 to 17c in spite of the fresh to strong SW wind. Wind and showers dying out this evening but with some still going for coastal Wales, but then wet weather arrives for SW Wales in the early hours reaching the Midlands by dawn. Another very mild night no lower than 10 or 11c. A spell of heavy rain for many through Monday morning accompanied by a strong SW to south wind, the rain turning lighter and patchier in the afternoon, although still some heavy bursts for West Wales. Mild highs around 15c. Further heavy rain at times during Monday night for Wales again, probably just light rain for the Midlands though. Very mild indeed on Monday night at no lower than 13c, more like it should be on a typical late October afternoon! More rain for all on Tuesday morning this clearing to sunny intervals and showers for the afternoon. Most of the showers affecting SW Wales where some will be heavy and thundery, but only a few for the Midlands on Tuesday afternoon, and with decent sunny breaks it will reach 17c here, while 15c a more typical figure for West Wales. The fresh to strong SW winds continue through Tuesday with gales for exposed coasts. Another double figure celsius night to follow with the wind still quite strong and showers keep going for western coasts.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    By Wednesday the low has transferred to the north of Scotand, this should mean a somewhat drier day but still many places catching the scattered showers, with sunny intervals between these. A fresh westerly by Wednesday afternoon, and cooler and fresher for West Wales at 13 or 14c maxima, but still 16 or 17c for the Midlands as the mild air hangs on here. A cooler night to follow with clear spells down to 5c in places, but holding closer to 10c for most coasts, and a dry night in the main. The next Atlantic low slowly approaches Ireland as we go through Thursday, and so the relatively dry interlude does not last! It could be a dry morning though, and with the Midlands perhaps missing the worst of the rain on Thursday, while West Wales, closest to the trough, looks set for more heavy rain at times, especially on Thursday afternoon. A wet day for Snowdonia then on Thursday where temperatures only manage 12c or so, while for West Wales generally a respectable 14c, and a mild 16c for the East Midlands. Although the southerly breeze will freshen on Thursday, strong winds are not expected. Further rain or showers for Thursday night which is a mild one once more. Little let up on Friday either with a trough of low pressure sat right over England and Wales, so further showers or longer spells of rain, perhaps heavy in places, but mild maxima of between 14 and 16c, and a breezy rather than especially windy day seems probable.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    A broad range of possibilities modelled for next weekend, the best that can be surmised is for a somewhat unsettled but drier couple of days compared with the previous week, so although there will be some further rain and perhaps also strong winds at times, reasonable drier interludes too, so not a washout weekend, and temperatures close to the average which is 12 or 13c at the end of October.[/size][/font]
  11. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Some rain at times, becoming mild mid week; very cool and showery from Friday with potentially damaging frosts next weekend[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Last week saw strong winds with some rain at times, but amounts of rain were generally small. April is shaping up to be a dry month for the Midlands, and with quite small amounts of rain likely in the coming week again here. It was quite warm for the Midlands to mid week, mild rather than warm for West Wales, then we all cooled off on Thursday, and Friday night saw a widespread air frost, but at least the week ended bright and dry. Another rather changeable week with some rain and showers about, mild mid week, especially for the Mdlands, but then the week ends on a very cool and showery note with sharp night frosts making an unwelcome return.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Rain and drizzle for West Wales this Sunday afternoon, and a cloudy afternoon for the Midlands with a little rain later. Skies clear overnight with a ground frost in places. A rather unsettled start to the working week, Monday dawns dry but quickly clouding over for West Wales as the next Atlantic fronts arrive. A cool and rather wet day for West Wales on Monday, most of the rain and drizzle fairly light though, but a very unpleasant, damp and breezy day. Light rain and drizzle then gets to the Midlands by mid afternoon after a bright start to the day here. Although we will be within a warm sector by Monday evening, this mildness will not be apparent through the daytime, what with the dampness and cool westerly breeze at the surface, so maxima of just 10 to 12c will be during the early evening. The weakening cold front will be strung out over Wales and the Midlands on Monday night, so a rather cloudy night with drizzle in places, but it should have dried up by dawn on Tuesday. High pressure close by to our south on Tuesday but still a weak front legacy over the UK, so a rather cloudy but dry day, bar the odd spot of drizzle for West Wales. It could well brighten in the afternoon over the Midlands, and if so pleasantly mild reaching 17c locally, however for cloudier West Wales highs just 12 to 15c, but with much less of a breeze during Tuesday. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=168711:PPVG89 Mon cool some rain.png][attachment=168712:PPVJ89 Tue wk front r cloudy milder.png][attachment=168713:ecmt850.072 dry r cloudy mild Tue to Wed.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Synoptic charts becoming difficult to decipher as early as Wednesday this week, but the trend will be for the relatively mild air to be pushed away to our south by Thursday, and with some quite wet weather possible in the transition process, with a slow moving frontal zone likely to linger over Wales and the Midlands well into Thursday. High pressure keeps much of Wednesday dry for the south, but a slow moving cold front could well bring rain to Wales through Wednesday afternoon, although this is not yet 'nailed' and we could get another mostly dry day instead? In any case, the Midlands more likely to stay dry for most of Wednesday. Temperatures on Wednesday dependent on the progress of the cold front, so if the Midlands manages to stay dry and bright, then a rather warm day in prospect with highs up to a rather warm 18c, but conversely, should West Wales have the cloudy, damp day that seems likely, a cool 11 or 12c only here. If Wednesday was difficult to forecast, then Thursday is little more than guesswork! Slack pressure on Thursday so light winds look almost guaranteed, if not the other elements of the days weather which could be wet or dry! We will have the slow moving front from Wednesday to contend with, this lying somewhere over southern Britain, but it is difficult to tell just how active it will be at this stage, as we also have a ridge of high pressure over central UK. It does though look like the mild air will have been displaced south by Thursday, and where (if) it turns out wet then a very cool day of highs below 10c.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=168714:PPVL89 changes mild but perhaps wet later.png][attachment=168715:metslp.96 CF Wales Wed.png][attachment=168717:h850t850eu CF into mild Wed.png][attachment=168718:PPVO89 Thu weakenig front Mids.png][attachment=168719:ecmt850.120 cool down Thu R after front.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Things seem more sorted out for the end of the week perversely, with high pressure out over the Atlantic and low pressure over the Continent to our east, this means a cool, very cool even, northerly flow for Friday and next weekend. The last of any rain will clear on Thursday night with clear spells and a ground frost developing, lows getting down towards zero. A bright start to Friday, but showers will develop, these becoming heavy with hail and thunder in places, more likely for the Midlands. Disappointing highs between 9 and 11c on Friday in spite of the sunny intervals. Very cool upper air for the time of year is over the UK next Saturday (-6c at 5000 feet), so a frosty dawn on Saturday (6am if you are up), given clear spells on Friday night. Another day of sunny intervals and heavy showers, some with hail again, and a very cool day, maxima struggling to even reach doubles figures 10c. It is possible we could be under a cold ridge next Saturday night, which would be an ideal set up for a notably cold late April night, -5c not out of the question, and a damaging frost for gardeners to watch out for. However, that is a week away and it may be somewhat different come the time. The cool, rather unsettled theme looks like continuing into the start of May, with the heat going to Eastern Europe unfortunately![/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=168720:h850t850eu cool showery Fri.png][attachment=168721:ecmt850.144 cool showery Sat.png][attachment=168722:ecmt850.168 Sun cold R notable late frost poss.png][attachment=168723:ukmintemp exceptionally cold night under R Sun possible.png][attachment=168724:t850Caerdydd~-~Cardiff.png][attachment=168725:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
  12. TonyH
    [size=4][color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Changeable with rain at times and localised flooding; fine Christmas Day; potentially stormy late Friday into Saturday[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Very mild indeed during the middle of last week, highest readings on Thursday Hereford at 15.3c, much of the Midlands above 13c. Exceptionally mild by night, many places stayed above 11c during Wednesday night with some spots still over 13c in the early hours of Friday - virtually as mild as it gets in December! As expected West Wales (WW) saw the worst of the rain last week, the mild, moist air having no problem precipitating out over the hills while in contrast much of the Midlands escaped mainly dry for most of Wednesday and Thursday. Unfortunately the Capel Curig rain gauge has been faulty but pretty sure over 100mm up there Tuesday to Friday, the Teifi was in spate Friday so quite likely the Cambrians received above 75mm, here at Llanwnnen next to the valley 37mm fell in this period. Not much in the way of frost last week with all the mild air over us.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]The week ahead[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Through to Tuesday night we are in a very mild moist WSW flow having travelled thousands of miles across the Atlantic. A mostly cloudy 3 days ahead then, very mild mostly being above 10c throughout, brisk SW or west winds and rain or drizzle at times, Snowdonia and perhaps some other hilly districts of WW likely to see a lot of rain in this period, over 100mm with flooding issues for Snowdonia. Some detail on this: Sunday afternoon cloudy, mild and breezy with occasional light rain or drizzle, probably very little for the Midlands though, highs between 10 and 12c. Temperatures hold above 9c during Sunday night, further light rain or drizzle at times, chiefly for WW, with a fresh to strong WSW wind. A similar day but windier Monday, largely cloudy and damp, only a little light rain or drizzle for the Midlands, a thoroughly damp, drizzly day for much of WW, and turning increasingly wet over NW Wales through the day. Very mild, maxima 11 to 13c. Some cloud breaks producing bright intervals across favoured sheltered parts of the Midlands may result in the odd 14c being achieved, this some 7c above the late December norm! Winds gusting to severe gale force (50mph) for exposed places during Monday.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Similarly damp and drizzly for Tuesday night, still windy and very mild no lower than 9c anywhere. Again Snowdonia could be receiving a lot of rain and flooding could well be an issue by this stage across NW Wales. More of the same Tuesday as well, perhaps largely dry for the Midlands, but damp and drizzly across WW again, and as we go through the day it turns more generally wet here with some heavier bursts of rain. Quite windy and perhaps a touch less mild highs between 9 and 11c. This more general rain front then heads SE crossing the Midlands on Tuesday night as WW eventually dries up, and another mild night. Rain should clear the Midlands first thing on Christmas Eve, with cooler air behind giving sunny intervals and just the odd shower. Temperatures on Wednesday afternoon between 6 and 8c but a cool WNW breeze. Clear spells overnight lead to a widespread ground frost, minima 1 to 3c, with a few spots attaining 0c, a mostly dry night too, just the odd shower for NW Wales and NW Midlands possible.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Christmas Day looks a pleasant one due a ridge of high pressure, a frosty start in places, and a largely dry, bright day with sunny spells just a gentle NW breeze. Just the odd shower affecting WW and Staffordshire into the afternoon with maxima close to the average at 6 to 8c. Clearing skies and light winds during the evening lead to another widespread ground frost and perhaps local air frost as temperatures dip close to freezing by midnight. Likely then that cloud and breeze increases after midnight across WW lifting temperatures with the frost gone by dawn here, but expect a frosty start to Boxing Day for the Midlands. High pressure gives way during Boxing Day permitting rain fronts from the west. A cloudy day with spells of rain for WW and clouding over during the morning for the Midlands too with occasional rain here throughout the afternoon and evening. Turning into a wet a windy day then but temperatures eventually quite mild after the chilly start, perhaps up to 10c by evening, although the really mild air could be resticted to SW Wales?[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]In fact late Boxing Day into Saturday has the models showing potential for a rapidly deepening low to cross the UK, obviously this feature is almost a week away, but potential for some damaging weather on Friday night and into Saturday depending on its track and how much it deepens. Best bet is for a deepening low to cross England Friday night into Saturday and which is likely to be bringing heavy rain and localised flooding along with widespread gales and possibly damaging winds. The latest GFS model output is not good with damaging destructive gales affecting all parts but especially the Midlands and East next Saturday, this driving down wintry showers and with blizzards for high ground! Just one option though with the ECM model showing a much more tame affair, but still there is a stormy possibility to be wary of. Next weekend then looking at least chilly, windy and showery, perhaps with a longer spell of rain and hill snow. Looking out to the start of 2015 and its looking mixed and perhaps turning colder?[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=234239:PPVE89 windy VM drizzle Mo wet NW Wales pm.png][attachment=234241:ecmt850.072 unsettled to Tu night wet NW Wales VM.png][attachment=234243:PPVJ89 wet WW m dry til later Mids mild.png][attachment=234240:viewimage VM windy damp MO TU wet NW Wales.png][attachment=234244:PPVL89 WEd rain clears early to bright odd sh colder pm.png][attachment=234245:ecmt850.096 Chr Eve colder bright few sh.png][attachment=234246:PPVO89 m dry Chr Day to frost night.png][attachment=234247:viewimage m dry bright Chr Day.png][attachment=234248:ecmt850.144 becomes wet windy BD.png][attachment=234249:viewimage heavy rain gales Fr night.png][attachment=234250:viewimage stormy wintry showers Sat.png][attachment=234251:ecmt850.168 windy showers lsr hill snow WEND.png][attachment=234253:viewimage rain times dry CHr Day.png][attachment=234254:viewimage H TH deep L SA.png][attachment=234255:viewimage variable temps after mild start.png][attachment=234256:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color][/size]
  13. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Warm to very warm but rather unsettled; some storms or rain at times, localised downpours[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Our very warm spell/ hot spell continued last week with plenty of sunshine. 31.4c (89f) at Porthmadog and 30c (86f) at Lampeter and Llanelli on Friday, in this - the hottest spell since July 2006 (when it reached a record 33.6c 92f at Llanwnnen!). For the Midlands highest readings of the week were in the order of 29c, with 30c not quite breached here. At least in rural areas the heat managed to escape overnight, each night dropped below a comfortable 13c in this location, prior to the weekend at least, whereas in the cities and for coastal Wales nights have been uncomfortably warm and sticky at times, for example often not getting below 15c in Birmingham, while on Friday night and again last night temperatures only fell to 19c at Mumbles near Swansea. The weekend however was cooler and cloudier for the Midlands and parts of Wales, maxima of only 21c for Warwickshire on Sunday, a bit disappointment or relief perhaps then after the scorching week. Perversely, the heat and sunshine has returned with a vengeance on Monday!.

    Another bone dry week passed virtually everywhere, and the countryside is parched and turning brown, and river and streams are running very low. With the end in sight for the hot, dry spell, a resume for this location shows no rain for almost 3 weeks, while for the past fortnight daytime highs have averaged 26c (close to 80f), but with nights averaging a refreshingly cool 10c here in my garden. The remarkable spell ends with a scattering of downpours, thunderstorms and spectacular lightning displays for some of us this week, although certainly no washout, rather hit and miss showers, some places getting a lot of rain in a short space of time, while others escape with a relatively dry week. Very warm/ hot and humid at first, cooling mid week, but still warm, and perhaps very warm again late in the week.

    Our resident high of the past two weeks or so is slipping away to Scandinavia, and for the coming week we are more influenced by a low pressure area that will be spinning about to the west of Ireland. At least with low pressure in this position the air will be coming up from the south or SW so not a cool direction, and a warm/ very warm but rather unsettled week ahead. Spells of hazy sunshine for Monday afternoon and quite hot and humid, maxima widely 26 to 28c, perhaps even 29c for one or two places. The lower pressure combined with the heat and humidity will serve to set off a scattering of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon, these lasting well into this evening. Many places missing these, but torrential rain along with thunder and lightning where they do occur. A warm, sticky night follows tonight mostly remaining above 15c. Tuesday another very warm, humid day with fronts pushing into the heat from the SW setting off further downpours and storms in places, but again some places missing these altogether. The kind of weather where you may hear thunder or see distant flashes of lightning but not get much if any rain! Temperatures on Tuesday up to 23 to 27c, warmest for the Midlands, and perhaps a little cooler for coastal Wales. Further showers or storms in places well into Tuesday night, perhaps more especially over the Midlands, where you should see flashes of lightning at least.

    Messy synoptics on Wednesday as thundery troughs take the real heat away to the NE, with more weather fronts moving into Ireland. Plenty of cloud to start and with bits and pieces of rain, warm sunny intervals developing for the afternoon, this again likely to set off a scattering of showers, thundery in places, although some will wonder what all the fuss is about and miss out on rain/ thunder altogether! Less warm for Wednesday but still managing 21 to 25c. Night times mid week mild and rather sticky, but not as oppressive as at the start of the week, dropping to 12 to 14c. Low pressure still just west of Ireland even to end the week, a picture of slow moving fronts slowly crossing the UK, although these are not expected to bring prolonged, heavy rain to Wales and the Midlands, rather Thursday and Friday more likely to see bits and pieces of rain or showers, with the by then, only outside chance of thunder. Quite warm on Thursday highs of 21 to 23c, while for Friday things may warm up again, maxima 23 to 26c look likely at this stage, and it would be feeling sticky.

    Very difficult to pin detail on next weekend, the low pressure is still rotating west of Ireland, but dragging up some very warm pulses of air at times. No washout of a weekend seems certain; a stab would be fairly dry with scattered showers and thunderstorms for a few places; warm to very warm with sunny intervals, and maxima in the 22 to 27c range, highest for the Midlands, as West Wales experiences cooling SW breezes off the sea, so not a bad weekend again!
    [attachment=178575:PPVG89 Tue v warm TL risk.png][attachment=178576:ecmt850.048 v warm TL risk Tue.png][attachment=178577:PPVJ89 Wed warm some rain or showers.png][attachment=178578:h850t850eu hit and miss showers warm wed.png][attachment=178579:PPVL89 r warm bits and pieces Thu.png][attachment=178581:PPVO89 sticky few showers.png][attachment=178580:ecmt850.072 thu fri warmish some rain or showers.png][attachment=178582:ecmt850.120 warmer few showers Fri.png][attachment=178583:h850t850eu warm poss showers weekend.png][attachment=178584:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=178585:mgram_Cardiff.png][attachment=178586:prcpAbertawe~-~Swansea hit nd miss rain.png][/size][/font]
  14. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Mostly dry and quite warm with sunny spells, especially for South Wales and the Midlands, cloudier perhaps a little rain affecting NW Wales at times[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Highlights of last week:[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A generally dry and warm week gone. West Wales was favoured for sunshine and warmth last week due to the easterly winds, with cloudier weather affecting the Midlands in particular at times and so restricting temperatures here. A very warm, rather sultry Thursday saw the highest readings of the week, and for many places since early August, with Whitechurch, Pembrokeshire best at 25.7c, then Llanelli 25.4c, Llanwnnen 24.4c, Aberporth 24.2c, Pembrey 24.1c, Wellesbourne 23.7c, Trawscoed and Pershore 23.3c, Coventry and Church Lawford 23.0c. Warm nights too for much of last week and on Thursday night Mumbles, Milford Haven and Trawsgoed did not fall below 17c which is more like the average daytime figure for September![/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Bar a few showers much of the week remained dry until scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday gave localised torrential falls but again some areas missed these completely. Parts of Ceredigion have had no measurable rain at all for the first 20 days of September including Trawsgoed and Llanwnnen and the countryside is now hard and dry, the few spits of drizzle not enough register in the gauge. The legacy of storms over the south on Thursday night was a cloudy, murky cooler Friday especially for the Midlands where for many it only rose a couple of degrees from the overnight values to just 17c or so. Saturday too a cooler cloudier day for most, although the Carmarthenshire coast was quite bright and warm still. [/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]The week ahead: [/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Amazingly the predominantly dry weather looks set to continue for the rest of the month - could the Lampeter area have a completely rainless month for the first time since February 1986? Me thinks some drizzly weak fronts this week will prevent this..Problems with some of the models this weekend means less data to go on - but we will try anyway and the general theme is for plenty of dry and at times rather warm weather, North and West Wales having the most chance of dampness at times from late Tuesday onwards, but never particularly wet even here. A weak cold front has shifted the cloud leaving a lovely sunny Sunday, just some patchy Cumulus this afternoon. Temperatures just above average reaching 17 to 19c. Clear, calm and cool tonight, 2c in the Marches and mid Wales is close to a grass frost. High pressure centred over SW England on Monday so another lovely day, mostly sunny and fairly warm highs 18 to 20c, even a 21c here and there. Clear periods but not quite as cool for Monday night. High pressure holds over the south on Tuesday but with a weakening cold front arriving into NW Wales later. A dry bright but rather breezy day for South Wales and the Midlands but cloudier for NW Wales and later Cardigan Bay with a little light rain or drizzle in places but it should be dying out as it moves SE into the high. Maxima a rather warm 20c for parts of the Midlands on Tuesday but 16 or 17c for Snowdonia where it may well turn out a cloudy and damp afternoon. This front means a more cloudy night so milder no lower than 9 or 10c and the odd spit of drizzle in places.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Ridging into the SW on Wednesday keeps it generally dry and bright, however a warm front is crossing northern Britain and so rather cloudy for NW Wales perhaps a smidgen of rain or drizzle from midday onwards. The westerly wind freshens through the afternoon, highs ranging from 19c over the Midlands to 15c for NW Wales if cloudy and damp, so feeling chilly here on Wednesday. We are in a warm sector for Wednesday night, so cloudy, mild and breezy, drizzle in places, chiefly for Welsh hills, temperatures no lower than 12c. High pressure still close enough to our SW Thursday to kill off the rain fronts passing to our north, perhaps a lot of cloud for Cardigan Bay and NW Wales, the odd spit of drizzle, but for South Wales and the Midlands it brightens to sunny spells afternoon and becomes warm at 20 to 22c, compared with 17c for NW Wales. Quite a fresh west to NW breeze Thursday though. Again on Friday high pressure should be close enough by to weaken any fronts that may reach southern Britain, so the generally dry but rather breezy theme continues and where it brightens 20 or 21c is achievable, although once more NW Wales likely to be cooler and cloudier still with the west winds blowing. [/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Pressure look set to build over the UK again next weekend so apart from the odd shower it looks dry and bright with temperatures at least attaining the average for the end of September (16 to 18c) so feeling pleasant in any sunshine.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=225253:PPVG89 (1) sunny r w Mo.png][attachment=225254:PPVJ89 dry bright esp Mids Tu little rain pm NW Wales.png][attachment=225255:PPVM89 m dry bright We.png][attachment=225256:PPVO89 TH m dry bright warm Mids.png][attachment=225257:h850t850eu m dry weekend too.png][attachment=225258:prcpWest~Midlands m dry week.png][attachment=225259:t850West~Midlands r warm week overall.png][attachment=225260:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color]
  15. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Very unsettled with damaging gales and flooding problems likely at times; variable but often quite chilly temperatures, some frost[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Wet and windy last week, Llanwnnen had 90mm rain in the past 7 days - 35mm of this fell on Wednesday with localised flooding; rather wet for the Midlands too, Coventry having had 25mm. Temperatures very up and down some days like Monday were very mild, in fact in the early hours of Monday much of the Midlands was above 13c! Thursday was one of the colder days and some parts saw snow showers, we did here at Llanwnnen although it did not lie, the temperature dropped down to just 1c in the mid afternoon sleet and snow. Thunder also featured in the showers for parts of Wales on Thursday, and again on Saturday when a solitary flash of lightning followed by a low rumble was heard during a squall that gave a 53mph gust of wind here. Gales in places last week too, one of the strongest gusts was of over 80mph at Pembrey, Carmarthenshire on Wednesday evening. More very windy and wet weather at times in the coming week as two significant low pressure systems affect the UK. A White Christmas is unlikely although it would only take one flake to fall![/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Sunday, and at least we are seeing sunny intervals, although some areas, as with this morning, are being affected by heavy showers with hail and thunder, while other areas, particularly parts of the Midlands escaping these altogether though, highs on Sunday 7 to 9c, a little above average. Showers tending to die down tonight but a few continuing for West Wales, temperatures down to 1 to 3c with a ground frost in places, coasts escaping though. Cloud and wind increases late in the night as a rapidly deepening depression heads towards Ireland. This low is the main feature of the week as it will be one of the deepest, most intense storms to pass close to the UK in many years, and will be bringing severe damaging gales on Monday - the central pressure will fall below 930mbar! The depression will track to the west of Ireland through Monday, and it will already be blowing a gale with heavy rain to greet the dawn on Monday for Wales and with these conditions quickly spreading to the Midlands through the morning. The Midlands is not likely to escape these damaging winds on this occasion as the isobars (pressure lines) are very tight across all UK. Strong to gale force south to SW winds then, inland gusts exceeding 60mph, while for coasts and hills of Wales 80 to 90mph gusts are likely, these speeds will bring down plenty of trees, cause power outages and structural damage. Not just severe gales but heavy rain too associated with this low, and once the rain starts it is set to last through to at least late evening, and will be very heavy at times, especially for Wales, so flooding too will be a problem as we go though the day for some areas. Parts of South Wales undoubtedly set to receive 2 or 3 inches of rain on Monday with an inch falling on most places. Irrelevant considering the other conditions but it will be a mild day, peak temperatures 9 to 11c during Monday evening. The rain should then turn more showery by the early hours of Tuesday, these showers heavy and quite frequent across Wales with hail and possibly thunder, a windy night but the gales should have abated inland. The low continues to deepen on Tuesday as it tracks past Scotland and may reach as low as 925mbar. Historically, the Braer storm of January 1993 saw an estimated 914mbar, but was further north of Scotland, and is thought to be the deepest extra tropical cyclone on record for the North Atlantic [url="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braer_Storm_of_January_1993"]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braer_Storm_of_January_1993[/url][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Windy and showery on Tuesday, SW winds gusting to gale force. Although winds will be SW, the air has originated over a freezing cold Canada several days previously and is categorised as 'returning Polar maritime' (rPm), and is inherently cold at height if not surface. So a chilly, windy Tuesday with showers, especially across West Wales, parts of the Midlands may escape with a mostly dry, bright day. Cold enough for sleet or snow over the hills on Christmas Eve, above 300m most favoured for wintriness, although it should not settle, many places seeing hail showers on Tuesday. Maxima on Tuesday 5 to 7c. Showers lessening overnight and with clear spells a widespread slight frost develops as the wind decreases substantially, minima by Christmas Day morning around 0c except for milder coasts. A respite from the winds on Christmas Day, we have a slack area of low pressure crossing the SW so moderate breezes at worst! Still rather an unsettled picture with some areas experiencing showers, but more of us managing a generally dry day with sunny intervals. Interestingly we are still in the rather cold rPm air and so if you do see a blob of sleet on the car windscreen on Wednesday then you have technically experienced a 'White Christmas' - I should not rush out and place a late bet though! The Midlands looks best bet for a pleasant bright and chilly afternoon walk, while West Wales will see further rain and hail showers, sleety stuff perhaps for hills. Highs of 5 to 7c for the Big Day. With clearing skies and light winds a widespread slight air frost is likely overnight, although still some showers keep going in places, especially for Wales, again with sleet or wet snow for the hills. Temperatures down to -2c locally.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A bit of a respite again for Thursday too, a slight bump of relatively high pressure kills most of the shower activity, still some places catching them though, and much of the day fairly dry and bright with sunny intervals. Highs on Thursday 5 to 7c again and slightly cold for late December. A frost may develop for the Midlands on Thursday evening but more trouble is looming out west! Another deep low is moving quickly towards Ireland on Thursday evening bringing rain and strong winds to Wales. As this system is still 4 or 5 days off it still has to treated with a degree of hypothesis, but again there is a strong suggestion of damaging gale to severe gales affecting Wales and England on Thursday night into Friday. The GFS is this morning showing a 940mbar system tracking close to Ireland then Scotand through Friday with very tight isobars which would produce damaging gales similar to Monday, while ECM shows the low not as deep or damaging perhaps. Suffice to say Friday morning at least looks a washout with strong to gale force winds, the rain heavy in places with flooding potential although it may clear to showers pm. At least it will be mild highs around 10c.[/size][/font]


    [font=arial][size=3]Longer term and the very changeable, disturbed theme continues through next weekend and towards the New Year. Atlantic lows still dominating although brief ridges will dry it up at times, albeit briefly for a day at most. Further showers or longer spells of rain, and possibly wintry showers over higher ground as we are mid Winter. Variable temperatures as lows cross, fluctuating between mild and rather cold, the risk of a few slight frosts on occasion. The chance of more gales exists for the 30th or New Years Eve but that is a long way off to speculate!
    [attachment=199110:PPVG89 Monday storm.png][attachment=199111:ecmt850.048 sub 920 storm Mon night.png][attachment=199112:h850t850eu ex deep L Mon night.png][attachment=199114:ecmt850.048 sub 930 storm Mon night.png][attachment=199115:PPVJ89 windy showery Tue.png][attachment=199116:PPVL89 r cold some showers Christmas Day.png][attachment=199118:ecmt850.096 light winds chilly Christmas Day frost.png][attachment=199119:h850t850eu sh L ligh winds Christmas Day.png][attachment=199120:PPVO89 respite Th.png][attachment=199121:ecmt850.120 rain pot gales Th night.png][attachment=199122:ecmt850.144 potential gales heavy rain Fr.png][attachment=199123:ecmt850.168 unsettled weekend.png][attachment=199124:h850t850eu pot gale 30th.png][attachment=199125:ecmt850.240 more rain New Year.png][attachment=199127:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=199128:prcpSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion very wet Ceredigion.png][attachment=199129:prmslWarwickshire two intense lows.png][attachment=199130:t850Warwickshire fluctuating but r cold temps.png][/size][/font]
  16. TonyH
    [b][b]Headline: Warm and mostly dry until late in the week[/b][/b]

    April to July 2012 has already been the wettest such period in the 250 year England and Wales rainfall series, with an average of almost 20 inches falling in these soggy four months! At long last we are experiencing proper Summer weather with warm sunshine and dry days! It looks like the week ahead will turn even warmer with sunny spells and will be quite humid. Generally dry until Friday (start of the Olympics!) when it becomes cooler and unsettled.

    Sunday is turning out surprisingly sunny and warm here in west Wales, but cloud cover should arrive at some stage during this afternoon, and even with a little drizzle for this evening. A dry and mostly sunny Sunday for the Midlands. We have a stand off between a ridge of high pressure over the south, and weak fronts straggling down from a deep Icelandic low, for the start of this week. What this means is a warm first half of the week, in fact becoming very warm for the MIdlands in particular, with decent sunny spells here. For west Wales during Monday and Tuesday there is the legacy of weak fronts over or close by to us, so that cloud may prove more of a headache here, perhaps even with some drizzle in places on Monday. Let's hope that the strong July sunshine burns through this and we join the Midlands with the warm, fairly sunny weather! Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday up to a very warm 25c for the Midlands, and even if west Wales ends up cloudier, still into the low 20's here, so feeling warm and humid.
    [attachment=137330:brack0a warm dry mon.gif][attachment=137331:Rtavn421 R against front warm m dry.png][attachment=137332:Recm482 R kills off front Mon and Tue.gif]

    Pressure is slack and winds very light for Wednesday, we continue to be in the warm humid air mass, however the straggling front may pep up and provide us with a few heavy showers in the afternoon, but most of us will stay dry and warm with sunny spells, temperatures reaching 23 - 26c. A warm, uncomfortable night to follow. Thursday is the last of the warm to very warm days, perhaps the warmest, 27c is possible for the Midlands - the highest readings since May. Again the warmth may set off a few afternoon downpours for some areas, but generally another dry day.
    [attachment=137333:brack2a slack Wed few showers warm.gif][attachment=137334:Recm722 slack Wed few showers.gif][attachment=137335:Rtavn9017 very warm Wed.png][attachment=137336:brack4 Thu very warm threatens unsettled.gif][attachment=137337:Recm1202 hinting unsettled and cooler Fri.gif]

    For Friday things turn unsettled and cool off. High pressure is now based out in the Atlantic, while low pressure orientates from the near Continent to Scandinavia. This drags down cooler north-easterly winds by the end of Friday, and the Continental low threatens thundery rain or showers, more especially for the Midlands later on Friday. However, on the whole, still quite a warm day with some sunny intervals. A cool unsettled weekend to follow with low pressure close by, some heavy, perhaps thundery showers for many places too. Temperatures by then failing to reach 20c once more. So a relatively short- lived taste of Summer this week!
    [attachment=137338:Rtavn1381 Continental L showers FRi.png][attachment=137339:Recm1442 cooler unsettled FRi.gif][attachment=137340:Rukm1441 cooler unsettled Saturday.gif]
  17. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Mostly dry and rather warm with sunny spells; more unsettled with showers in places from Thursday/ Friday[/b]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]We saw some warm and reasonably sunny weather at times last week, although sometimes it was cloudier and cooler, especially for the Midlands early in the week. HIghest temperatures over the past week include 22.4c Trawsgoed on Tuesday, 24.3c Pembrey Sands, 22.8c Llanwnnen and 22.6c Coventry on Wednesday, then Hereford 23.7c, Church Lawford 22.9c, Mumbles 22c on Friday - all well into the warm category for June. Virtually a bone dry week too, just a little drizzle in places on a few days, but many places having no measurable rain. Cool nights though this weekend, quite close to a grass frost for prone Welsh spots, the low at dawn today just 3.5c at 4 feet above the lawn here and 4.2c at Trawscoed, only Cairngorm colder than Llanwnnen last night![/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]More fine and warm weather this week too, so June is turning out a lovely Summer month for a change! It may be turning somewhat cooler and more unsettled later in the week, although this breakdown not definite as yet. Sunday, and the chilly night a distant memory this morning as the mercury rockets, plenty of sunshine today with highs between 21 and 24c widely, coasts pleasantly cooler with sea breezes, 18 or 19c here. Patchy cloud for the Midlands in particular this afternoon, a light shower just about possible over the East Midlands. Another cool, clear night, again inland Wales and the Marches down to between 4 and 7c, more like 10c though for cities due to UHI (Urban Heat Island) effect. A similar Summery picture for Monday too with high pressure close to Ireland, warm with sunny spells, Cumulus clouds building afternoon threatening the odd shower, especially over the Midlands, but 90% of us remain dry again. Highs mostly in the 21 to 24c range, cooler for some coasts. Light winds, another clear coolish night to follow, lows below 9c in the countryside. Tuesday may be a touch cooler and fresher, patchy cloud but sunny spells especially for West Wales (WW). Largely dry, but a few light showers affecting the Midlands, maxima 18 to 21c, quite a brisk NE breeze for the East Midlands later. A decidedly cool night follows, close to a grass frost for prone spots of the Marches and West Midlands with lows of 3c possible locally, but much milder for coasts and cities, above 10c at Llanelli for instance. [/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Increasingly messy weather charts from Wednesday as we lose the high pressure but neither does the barometer sink so low. No real weather fonts to contend with for southern Britain so another rather warm and mostly dry day, highs likely in the 20 to 23c range, perhaps WW doing best on Wednesday. Sunny spells but with some areas of cloud rendering some of us a cloudier day. Pressure leaking away more decisively later in the week as it looks like becoming more unsettled. A shallow low close to Ireland on Thursday threatens some showery rain in places, although some of us escape with another dry day, WW most likely to see a few showers on Thursday. Still rather warm for the Midlands with sunny spells and highs of 22c but with more cloud and showers about WW cooler at 18c or so. Friday has the low over England so more showery rain in places, perhaps heavy in places, but again some areas escape with very little. Rather warm (22c) should the sun appear, but conversely rather cool where the cloud and showers persist (18c). [/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Next weekend is uncertain, perhaps somewhat unsettled but with relatively high pressure still close to our SW, so no washout and it may not end up such a bad weekend. Best stab then, plenty of dry weather with some sunshine, but not clear blue skies, showers or rain for some places but not everywhere, hit and miss stuff. Temperatures near average, maxima in the 18 to 22c range. The jury is out regards what July has in store![/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=216928:PPVG89 (1) warm ss poss shower Mids pm.png][attachment=216929:ecmt850.072 m dry touch cooler TUe.png][attachment=216930:h850t850eu cooler m dry Tue.png][attachment=216931:PPVL89 dry warm Wed.png][attachment=216932:ecmt850.120 sh L Ire some showers pm.png][attachment=216933:PPVO89 showery rain threat Th.png][attachment=216934:ecmt850.144 unsettled FR r cool.png][attachment=216935:ecmt850.168 some showers WEND.png][attachment=216936:h850t850eu some showers ave temps WEND.png][attachment=216937:prcpSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion showers from TH.png][attachment=216938:prmslSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion fine warm early more unsettled later.png][attachment=216939:t850Worcestershire ave to warm uppers.png][attachment=216940:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color]
  18. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Dry, bright and warm to mid week; some rain and cooler from Thursday/ Friday[/b][/size][/font]


    [font=arial][size=3]A rather cool and unsettled week gone with rain at times, Wales wetter than the Midlands as is typical, Llanwnnen recieving 33mm in total during the past 7 days, compared with just 9mm at Coventry for example. Notably cool across the Midlands on Tuesday, highs of just 10 or 11c in places, at 11c maximum it was the coldest September day in Coventry since 1983 (thanks to Steve Jackson [/size][/font][url="https://twitter.com/bablakewx"]@bablakewx[/url][font=arial][size=3] ). Then very cool for parts of Wales last Wednesday when it only managed 13.2c here at Llanwnnen, this some 5c below the average mid September figure. For most of us it has warmed up appreciably during this weekend thanks to a deep Tropical marime flow of air, courtesy of former hurricane Humberto - although not everywhere has seen the sunshine as yet! Where the sun did appear it was warm on Saturday reaching 22 or 23c. Most places seeing at least some warm sunshine up to Tuesday, possibly even Wednesday, with the trend being to cooler and more unsettled condtions as we progress through the week.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Warm last night, most places no lower than 14 to 16c, here it was the warmest night of September with a minimum of 15.1c, the average for a late September night being 9c.Some areas faring poorly on Sunday and failing to benefit from the warm air mass due to persistent low cloud. However, a better chance than on Saturday for decent sunny spells to develop more widely raising temperatures into the low to mid 70's F ( 21 to 24c). A sunny start evident on the Bablake webcam in Coventry this morning (although more cloudy there currently) - the Midlands a favoured area for sunny spells through this afternoon too, while for West Wales more pot luck. The north coast of Gwynedd sheltered by Snowdonia and parts of Cardigan Bay seeing sunshine at times this afternoon, so hopfeful that the Ceredigion coasts seeing some warm sunny spells eventually, along with places such as Llandudno and Moelfre, Anglesey. South facing coasts though always more likely to stick with the low cloud, places such as Tenby and Aberdaron perhaps staying mostly cloudy, even misty today, and so temperatures not rising much at all, no better than 19c here, although still pleasantly warm for late September. Another mild night to follow. By Monday the high pressure more favourably positioned to our east and winds coming more from the SE means a better prospect for most spots to join in with some very warm and sunny conditions. Plenty of sunshine then expected for most on Monday, highs generally 22 to 25c, way above average for this stage in Autumn! It is still possible that a few coastal places with onshore breezes miss out suffering persistent sea mist, areas like West Pembrokeshire perhaps, and if so no better than 19c here, but even Cardigan Bay coasts should be reaching a sunny 22c on Monday.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Clear periods on Monday night with fog forming in places and so it may be a foggy start to Tuesday. Our high pressure is getting squeezed out by fronts to the SW and NE, although inbetween we stay dry and warm again. Good prospects again then for warm sunny spells on Tuesday once any fog clears, highs between 21 and 23c widely, and almost certainly the last time we experience such warmth until next Spring, although again cooler for some coasts. Dry for all on Tuesday. Mist and fog forming once more in places through Tuesday night where clear intervals permit. Another misty start for some on Wednesday, but then another generally dry day, even if pressure is relatively low by this point, with the fronts to our SW and NE not moving much and also fizzling out. A warm day with sunny intervals expected for Wednesday, there could be a light shower in places but generally dry once more with light winds. Highs on Wednesday 18 to 21c. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Thursday is when the uncertainties and differing scenarios come into play this week. It is starting to turn more unsettled and somewhat cooler, although many models keep it on the mild side still. The warm air mass from the start of the week has most certainly evaporated away, and it will have turned cool over northern UK, but for Wales and England this cool air not likely to make headway south even by next weekend. The best description for Thursday would be that we are in a kind of 'No Man's Land' weatherwise, pressure neither high nor low, temperatures close to average (around 17c), variable cloud, but sunshine in places, mostly dry, but some places catching a shower! Friday, and a trough of low pressure is developing west of Ireland it would seem, although the uncertainty must be stressed and low pressure may be deflected more to our SW keeping it mainly dry for the end of the week? More probable a scenario though is that we see falling pressure for Friday and Saturday, with rain at times, but no washout expected, temperatures perhaps rather warm on Friday, but then closer to average over the weekend. Saturday would appear to be the day most likely to be wet, the trough then looks like slowly clearing east by Sunday which would be a brighter and drier day. Looking very unsettled, wet and windy at times, as we move into October...[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=186152:PPVG89 v warm sunny Mon.png][attachment=186154:ecmt850.048 v warm sun Mon.png][attachment=186153:PPVJ89 dry warm between fronts.png][attachment=186155:ecmt850.096 m dry warm Wed.png][attachment=186156:metslp.120 NML Thu.png][attachment=186157:PPVO89 m dry rel mild Thu.png][attachment=186158:ecmt850.144 FRi r warm but rain to WW.png][attachment=186159:ecmt850.168 unsettled weekend but mild.png][attachment=186160:prcpWest~Midlands unsettled from Thu.png][attachment=186161:mgram_Birmingham warm to mid week unsettles ending.png][/size][/font]
  19. TonyH
    [size=3][font=arial][b]Headline: Unsettled, rain or showers at times; temperatures mild to average; drying next weekend[/b]

    A relaxation in the stormy wet weather last week, although we all saw some rain and wind at times, rainfall only amounted to 28.2mm here for the past 7 days and just 8.4mm at Coventry. There were some pleasant, mainly dry conditions at times, in particular for the Midlands. Wednesday the mildest of the year so far in some places with Hereford reaching 13.3c and Trawscoed 12c with sunny intervals, although Carmarthenshire had a cloudy, drizzly day and just 9c the high. Thursday was the mildest night of the month to that point, lows just 7.3c here and 7.9c at Coventry for example. Then a very mild day with sunny spells for the Midlands on Thursday Coventry reaching 12.2c. Any frosts that occured were only slight as has been the pattern all Winter, that of infrequent frost next to no snow. With only a few days remaining of 'Meteorological Winter' (Dec 1st to Feb 28th) the coldest night has failed to fall lower than -3c here in the frost hollow of Llanwnnen, most Winters would see at least -8c.

    Strong winds on Sunday, gusts of 55mph at Llanwnnen and 93mph Capel Curig this morning. A mild moist SW flow over the country today, some western parts seeing large rainfall totals by Monday morning, in particular Snowdonia where over 50mm is expected in the next 24 hours. So a wet Sunday afternoon and evening for much of West Wales along with strong to gale force winds, the Midlands just seeing a little light rain and drizzle from time to time. Very mild, last night most places remained above 8c and with highs between 10 and 12c this afternoon. Further rain overnight for Wales, heavy in places, and again intermittent light rain for the Midlands. No lower than 7c for the Midlands, but the cold front comes through West Wales by dawn with a clearance and much lighter winds so lows of 4 or 5c here. The cold front lingers across the Midlands with spells of rain through Monday morning before becomimg mostly dry for the afternoon. For West Wales on Monday some sunny intervals along with some mainly light showers, highs a mild 8 to 10c. By Monday evening a deep low is approaching Ireland with further wet and windy weather into Wales, this reaching the Midlands around midnight. This rain band soon clears through all areas by dawn on Tuesday, leaving a day of blustery showers and sunny intervals. For West Wales plenty of showers, heavy and prolonged at times with hail in places, but relatively few for the Midlands, although even here some heavy ones in places. Windy on Tuesday with gales for coasts and hills of Wales, highs 7 to 9c. Strong winds and showers dying down on Tuesday night, some keeping going across West Wales though and these could turn wintry over the Brecon Beacons, lows of 2 to 4c. Low pressure to our north on Wednesday so still some showers about, but a better chance that some areas miss these and get a fine, bright, mostly dry day, in other places though the showers line up to give wet spells through the day. Highs on Wednesday between 7 and 9c again, a little above the late February average. Breezy rather than windy for Wednesday. A rather squally band of rain looks like crossing over during Wednesday night but should be cleared by dawn.

    Thursday then looks like another showery day with longer spells of rain in places, some sunny intervals too. Highs again above average with quite a breeze, but turning colder pm with perhaps wintry showers over the hills by evening. Low pressure still close by although perhaps filling up by Friday, so less in the way of wind but there will still be areas of showery rain about, although a few areas may stay predominantly dry. HIghs likely to be aroud the average of 7 or 8c. By Saturday fewer showers as the low edges east into the near Continent, a slack NNE flow over the UK, highs around 7c. A good signal from the models that a strong ridge of high pressure builds across by Sunday bringing the highest barometer readings since January, perhaps even attaining 1020mbar! Should this play out then a frosty start to Sunday with a lovely fairly sunny day, although perhaps a little chilly for early March at 7c max or so. Don't get your hopes up however, as the models are not yet convinced of a prolonged spell of dry, bright weather![/font][/size]
    [font=arial][size=1][attachment=208268:PPVG89 rain to some showers Mon.png][attachment=208269:PPVJ89 blustery showers Tue pro WW.png][attachment=208270:ecmt850.072 showery Tue.png][attachment=208271:PPVJ89 blustery showers Tue pro WW.png][attachment=208272:PPVL89 showers in places Wed.png][attachment=208273:PPVO89 showery Th.png][attachment=208274:ecmt850.144 showers about Fri less wind.png][attachment=208275:ecmt850.168 fewer showers Sat.png][attachment=208276:ecmt850.192 strong R frost dry Sun.png][attachment=208277:h850t850eu frost dry Sun.png][attachment=208278:prcpSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire wet at times WW.png][attachment=208279:prcpWarwickshire rain at times.png][attachment=208280:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
  20. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Fairly dry and bright, cool at first then quite warm from mid week[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Some dry, bright and warm weather early last week, 25c at Rugby on Wednesday, their warmest day of the year to date. Then some rain and showers about, with thundery showers over Birmingham and Wolverhampton on Thursday evening. However, overall quite small amounts of rain during the past week, just 5mm having fallen at Llanwnnen and 10mm at Coventry. Much cooler and windy this weekend but things set to improve once more, and another reasonably dry week to come - June is turning out fairly dry if on the cool side.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Sunday afternoon continues chilly with plenty of cloud and occasional, mostly light showers, with some areas again escaping these, lucky to better 60f (16c) anywhere, very cool. The blustery NW wind moderates overnight as the low currently over Scotland moves into the North Sea, becoming dry with clear spells, minima 7 to 9c. Monday looks a mainly dry day with a ridge moving into the west, a few showers are possible more especially over the Midlands but most places missng them. Sunny intervals on Monday, but a cool NW breeze and highs only 15 to 17c. Clear periods and a chilly Monday night, lows of 5c in places inland. High pressure builds more decisively from the SW during Tuesday although perhaps not enough to prevent a scattering of showers to develop, as there will be cool upper atmosphere pool encouraging them, again though many places will miss these showers altogether. Quite cool in spite of sunny spells maxima 17 to 19c, and with another chilly clear night to follow, a local grass frost not out of the question, as air temperatures get down to 4c in favoured cold hollows. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]High pressure close to Ireland on Wednesday and the upper atmosphere is starting to warm up, so dry and largely sunny on Wednesday, temperatures reaching the late June average of 19 to 21c, a very pleasant day as winds will be light, although cooler for Cardigan Bay coasts with an onshore breeze. Thursday too is influenced by high pressure close to our SW, so generally dry again with sunny spells, however weak fronts coming around the top of the high off the Atlantic could bring more in the way of cloud and perhaps a little rain for a time, more especially for North Wales and the Midlands. Rather warm where there is decent sunshine up to about 21c, but cool where damp, just 16c for Snowdonia perhaps. Much milder on Thursday night no lower than 12c. High pressure leaks away SW somewhat during Friday, the high perhaps not quite close enough to keep it completely dry with more cloud. We could well be within a sector of warm, humid but inherently moist air on Friday, so always more likely to stay cloudy along western coasts, even with a little drizzle in places, however inland, and more especially for the Midlands, warm and sultry sunny spells with temperatures as high as 23c, and this could set off a few sharp afternoon showers here. A mild and somewhat sticky night follows no lower than 13c. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Next weekend, and we still have the same area of high pressure to the SW of Ireland, with a mild, moist and rather humid Atlantic west to NW airstream flowing about it across the UK. Western coasts always more prone to low cloud, sea mist and a little drizzle at times disappointingly, whereas inland, and especially the Midlands seeing some warm sunny breaks, although even here it may well cloud over at times. Mild nights next weekend, and by day maxima only 17c for stretches of coast that remain misty and damp, 21c for inland West Wales where it should brighten at times, then up to 25c locally for the Midlands where some decent sunny spells should break through. So not a bad weekend, and no washout for events taking place such as Glastonbury![/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=175613:PPVG89 cool m dry mon R.png][attachment=175614:PPVJ89 R but few showers Tue.png][attachment=175615:ecmt850.072 Tue m dry r cool.png][attachment=175618:ukmintemp very local GF Wed am.png][/size][/font][attachment=175636:h850t850eu pleasant dry sunny ave Wed.png][font=arial][size=3][attachment=175617:PPVL89 nice Wed warmer.png][attachment=175619:ecmt850.120 m dry THu.png][attachment=175620:PPVO89 Thu m dry but wk front.png][attachment=175621:metslp.120 H slips SW m dry r warm.png][attachment=175622:ecmt850.144 WS FRi cloudier warm.png][attachment=175628:ecmt850.168 wend m dry warm eso inland.png][attachment=175631:h850t850eu weekend H close by humid westerly.png][attachment=175632:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=175633:mgram_Cardiff.png][/size][/font]
  21. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3]
    [b]Headline: Cool with rain at times, drier after mid week and milder next weekend[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Mild and mostly dry until Thursday last week, then a rain front swept east introducing the cooler air mass we have been in since with showers about, but generally only modest precipitation accumulations. Plenty of hail showers on Saturday, and some of the hills saw sleet or snow, while a few parts of the Midlands such as Redditch and Long Buckby appear to have had thunder. A cool and rather unsettled week to come, although overall rainfall quantities not high again, but some rain or showers at times the theme, tending to become drier from mid week and milder next weekend. March 2014 is set to end up mild overall though with rain totals around average.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    Further hail showers around on Sunday morning, they put down a covering of stones here first thing, and for Sunday afternoon a scattering of rain and hail showers, but these are now dying out across West Wales. Rather cool highs of 8 to 10c similar to Saturday and with a brisk NW breeze. A ridge arrives tonight, so winds drop off and skies clear this evening to give a widespread, and for the end of March, hard frost. Most inland places getting down to between -2 to -4c, and locally for the Midlands a -6c is possible, so the coldest night of 'Winter' here! By dawn on Monday the frost will be lifting over West Wales as a breeze picks up and it clouds over ahead of an advancing front. Rain into Pembrokeshire by around noon, this slowly edging NE across Wales afternoon, some quite heavy, so a cool, wet and windy afternoon over the Principality, highs just 7 or 8c, well below the late March average of 11c. In contrast dry and bright for much of Monday for the Midlands, temperatures up to 10c, the rain not reaching the East Midlands probably until after dark. The rain band then grinds to a halt over the East Midlands giving a wet night here, while by midnight Wales and much of the West Midlands has dried out. A frost for West Wales on Monday night down to -2c in places inland, and perhaps a ground frost for the West Midlands too by dawn if the cloud breaks. Two rain areas to contend with on Tuesday, the old Midlands front may edge back west to give a wet afternoon across much of the region, while another low is skirting SW Wales, so the threat of a wet spell here too at some stage. In between though Mid and NW Wales MAY escape with little and even see some sunny intervals during Tuesday and just the odd shower. Very cool on Tuesday for the dull damp Midlands and an easterly breeze, no better than 6 or 7c here, but any brightness for West Wales means 9c is possible in places. A decaying front across West Wales on Tuesday night with a little rain or drizzle in places may prevent another frost here, but a clearance expected for the Midlands means at least a grass frost down to around 0c. Another cool day with a NE wind on Wednesday, although over West Wales at least we should see some sunny intervals and 9 or 10c, while it is a cloudy and eventually damp afternoon for the Midlands no higher than 8c here. More significant rain may develop across the Midlands during Wednesday evening as a low feature moves in from off the North Sea, and even some rain may reach West Wales by midnight too, cold enough for sleet or snow above about 200m, but this not settling. At least the cloud should prevent a frost for most places on Wednesday night.

    High pressure over Scandinavia trying to exert its influence to the UK by Thursday so hopes for drier conditions. However there may well be plenty of cloud still and some further light showers especially for the south of our regions. Cool again, temperatures only managing 8 to 10c at best. A few lucky places seeing sunny intervals on Thursday but generally a lot of cloud with some of us seeing showers, a gentle east breeze. There may be a ground frost in places dawn Friday, then a lot of cloud and a chilly east wind again, SW Wales favoured best for any sunny spells and 11c here should these develop, but elsewhere around 7 to 9c only, and a few drizzly showers possible over the Midlands in particular.

    Next weekend we are between high pressure to our north and a low over Iberia. Hope then of something milder as winds shift more to the SE off a fairly warm Continent, although tempered by a stiff breeze. Perhaps still a lot of cloud on Saturday wirh showery rain in places, but a better chance of seeing the sun on Sunday and temperatures responding up to a respectable 14c in places. Frost risk low by next weekend. It looks like turning cool and unsettled though once more as we get into April.

    [/size][/font]
  22. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Often dry but chilly with frost and fog up to Thursday; thereafter rain at times and milder[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The Lampeter area had an unexpected air frost last Monday night, the low of -0.7c here at Llanwnnen colder than any official UK weather station, closest values in our regions being Sennybridge and Shawbury minima 2.8c. Tuesday a lovely sunny day across much of West Wales (WW) with Wednesday a decent day too. Much of the week had temperatures in the average to mild bracket, with 13c reached over parts of WW Thursday. Much of the week was rather dry, particularly the Midlands, but rain arrived for Friday and during daylight it was rather cool over the Midlands at just 8c or so max. Saturday in contrast a very mild day widely reaching 13 to 15c - top spot Hereford at 16.1c, nothing though compared with the 24.8c reached at Socoa beneath the Pyrénées in France yesterday![/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]The coming week[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A difficult week to call - although there will be rain in places mid week, the outlook through to Thursday is mostly dry with sunny intervals (particularly for WW) and frosty and in places foggy nights as temperatures drop to where they should be at the end of November! It then probably turns unsettled with more widespread rain at times for Friday and into next weekend, but it must be stressed that uncertainty reigns by the end of the week! Lingering rain over the East Midlands this Sunday afternoon gradually edges away, while for Wales and the West Midlands its a dry afternoon with the sun breaking through. A cooler day highs at 8's and 9's c with light winds. Clearing skies and calm this evening sees frost setting in along with the formation of fog patches. It could well be the coldest night of the Season thus far (well we have n't had any cold as yet!) down below zero widely, coldest spots of inland Wales and the Marches at -2 or -3c. High pressure over southern Britain on Monday and typically for November this will mean thick fog in places which slowly thins and clears to give sunny spells for the afternoon. Where mist and fog persists longest a chilly day at just 5 or 6c max, but where it brightens up near average at 8 or 9c. Clear and cold again for Monday night again with fog in places, frosty lows generally -1 or -2c.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A ridge hangs on giving another dry day on Tuesday, some sunny intervals - once any fog and low cloud clears that is, rather cold though maxima just 5 to 7c, milder around coasts. However a shallow low over France is bringing a front up from the south and we could see rain breaking out in places by evening. A cloudy night follows with rain at times, not everywhere wet though, NW Wales may well escape, and no frost concerns for Tuesday night. The weakening weather front keeps it cloudy with some rain in places during Wednesday for the Midlands, while WW has a dry, bright day with sunny intervals. Maxima Wednesday 7 to 9c, even the odd 10c for parts of coastal WW where it could be quite a nice day! Light winds and clearing skies sees more fog developing on Wednesday night with frost in places, lows between 0 and 3c generally.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Thursday and we are between weather systems but with Atlantic fronts crossing Ireland towards us. Mostly dry with sunny intervals after any early fog, highs a chilly 7c or so for the Midlands but a milder day for WW as southerly winds increase, 10 to 12c here by evening. Uncertainties by this stage around frontal progress/ nature, but cloud and some rain for WW perhaps during Thursday afternoon becoming more widespread and heavier during the evening seems the likely outcome. It is doubtful the rain will extend far into the Midlands until Friday however as the fronts stall over the west during Friday night, so potentially a wet one for WW. [/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The models are quite difficult to interpret by the end of the week (more than unsual!) and so things may not pan out exactly as anticipated here: a 'disrupting' (splitting/ stalling) trough is somewhere over southern UK during Friday so there will be areas of wet weather but hard to ascertain exactly where - as the frontal sytem's behaviour and progress will be rather unpredictable until nearer the event. Suffice to say wet in places, not everywhere though, and for some of us just a cloudy day with little rain. Temperatures should be average to quite mild, say 8 to 11c on Friday. Next weekend model outputs remain indecisive with various possibilities, best guess is somewhat unsettled with some rain at times and on the mild side with frost unlikely by this stage.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=230679:PPVG89 (1) early fog then bright dry Mon.png][attachment=230680:ecmt850.048 dry Mo.png][attachment=230681:PPVJ89 Tu m dry after fog patches little rain eve.png][attachment=230682:ecmt850.072 rain places Tu night to WEd.png][attachment=230683:PPVL89 little rain MIds m dry Wed WW.png][attachment=230684:PPVO89 m dry Th rain wind eve WW.png][attachment=230685:ecmt850.120 rain wind WW Th night milder.png][attachment=230686:metslp.120 rain wind TH night.png][attachment=230687:h850t850eu rain places FR.png][attachment=230688:ecmt850.168 mild somewhat unsettled weekend.png][attachment=230689:h850t850eu changeable weekend some rain times r mild.png][attachment=230690:prcpSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire often dry to TH then unsettled.png][attachment=230691:prmslWarwickshire H early low late.png][attachment=230692:t850Warwickshire chilly early week milder later.png][attachment=230693:mgram_Birmingham m dry fr and fog becoming unsettled.png][/font][/color]
  23. TonyH
    [font=verdana, sans-serif][b]Headline: [/b][b]Cool a[/b][b]nd very unsettled: showers or longer spells of rain; windy to mid week.[/b][/font]

    [font=verdana, sans-serif]Last week's guide underestimated the showers that streamed off Cardigan Bay into Ceredigion from Monday to Wednesday and which gave a quarter of an inch of rain at Llanwnnen during this period. However other areas such as Warwickshire and Carmarthen saw very few showers and stayed mainly dry. A decidedly cool week, the highest reading being just 16c at Llanwnnen, very poor for September when it can still be much warmer than this. Many places saw a ground frost early on Saturday, even with the first air frost of the Autumn here at Llanwnnen, down to -1c - colder than any of the official Welsh weather stations![/font]

    [font=verdana, sans-serif]As mentioned last week ex Hurricane Nadine is affecting our weather and will be partly responsible for the very wet week ahead. Coventry and Rugby have had only had 9mm rain so far this month, a figure that is set to rise quickly over the next few days. A deep low pressure, spawned from the warm, humid circulation of Nadine, out in the Atlantic west of Spain, is set to wander about the UK between Monday and Thursday bringing strong to gale force winds and spells of heavy rain, before eventually filling up in situ. A measure of the warm tropical air within this system is that parts of southern France are hitting 90 f today! [/font][font=verdana, sans-serif]The low pressure system born from this hot tropical air meeting the diving Jet Stream is currently over the Bay of Biscay, deepening and is headed our way, an awful lot of weather energy. [/font][font=verdana, sans-serif]No hot air getting this far north as we remain north of the Jet Stream, in fact another decidedly cool spell to come, with the low 60's the best we can hope for. Two to four inches of rain is modelled to fall over the next 4 days, with the highest totals likely for Wales, where localised flooding could be a problem, although at least the deluge is coming on the back of a dry spell.[/font]
    [font=verdana, sans-serif][attachment=140506:Rtavn16218 very wet week!.png][/font]

    [font=verdana, sans-serif]The cloud shield has already spread to most of England and Wales well ahead of the system, while the wind and rain is over southern parts on the first of a series of associated weather fronts set to move north today, tonight and through tomorrow. So a dull, windy afternoon and evening with rain soon spreading north, this becoming heavy at times and lasting through the evening. Very cool indeed today, temperatures only reaching 11 or 12 c ahead of the wet weather this afternoon. The exact track still somewhat unpredictable, but this deepening low set to move into southern England by Monday morning, so further spells of rain tonight and tomorrow morning, again heavy at times, and potentially some large totals-well in excess of an inch totting up by then. The low then gradually edges north through Monday which should see the worst of the rain clearing north with it, but some doubt over this. In any case a very cool, windy afternoon with showers or longer spells of rain, maxima just 12 to 14c. Interestingly by tomorrow afternoon our low will have merged with another low that has moved into the UK from the north-west so a double whammy of storms really tomorrow! No doubt that there will be gales in some regions from the low tonight and tomorrow, although at this stage it would seem that Wales and the Midlands are spared the worst of these with just typical strong Autumnal winds blowing off the leaves and twigs.[/font]
    [font=verdana, sans-serif][attachment=140504:brack0a DL E Eng Mon cool wet windy.gif][attachment=140505:Rtavn301 Mon DL Eng wet cool windy.png][/font]

    [font=verdana, sans-serif]The low then meanders south-west into Ireland for Tuesday which will be another very unsettled and windy day with showers or longer spells of rain, very heavy at times. At present Wales is modelled to have the worst of the rain on Tuesday with a further inch set to fall, however this may well change as we get nearer, but something to be aware of with respect to flooding possibilities on Tuesday. Cool again, and should the rain sit over Wales then maxima no higher than 12c here, while sunny intervals means a touch warmer for the Midlands up up 15c. Wednesday looking like another very disturbed day indeed with yet more showers or longer spells of rain, with the low now wandering about southern England. Wednesday then, the third successive day when heavy rains are expected to fall quite widely over Wales and the Midlands, and so further flooding prospects. Some of the showers could have hail and thunder too during Wednesday, and with less wind these storms could be slow- moving. Needless to say another mainly cloudy and cool day, although somewhat less cool than the start of the week. The kind of day when any sunny intervals just help the shower clouds to build up even more![/font]
    [font=verdana, sans-serif][attachment=140507:brack1a Tue DL Irish Sea showerr LSR cool windy.gif][attachment=140508:Rtavn601 DL Irish Sea Tue.png][attachment=140509:Rtavn6017 potrentially v cool wet Tue Wales.png][attachment=140510:brack2a DL south Wed very disturbed cool again.gif][/font]

    [font=verdana, sans-serif]At last, by Thursday our persistent low has filled up and is slowly edging away, so probably less in the way of heavy rain and showers, although far from being a dry day, still with occasional showers but also sunny intervals between. Temperatures closer to average up to 15 - 17c and with lighter winds again. An improvement of sorts. [/font]
    [font=verdana, sans-serif][attachment=140511:brack4 L away less showers cool.gif][attachment=140512:Recm1202 Thu L gets east fewer showers still cool.gif][/font]

    [font=verdana, sans-serif]Things may continue to improve somewhat into next weekend, although uncertainty abounds as usual. Some further rain or showers still likely during Friday and Saturday as a trough moves across, steadily this time from the west, so any rain clearing much more quickly. Although not exactly a fine, dry weekend, much less in the way of rain than the first part of this week, a chance to mop up! Feeling more pleasant in any sunny spells too, temperatures around the average for the end of September at 16 or 17c. Perversely, the beginning of October is looking warm and sunny! [/font]
    [font=verdana, sans-serif][attachment=140513:Rukm1441 COL Fri m dry few showers warmer.gif][attachment=140514:Rtavn1621 drier warmer weekend.png][/font]
  24. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Headline: Continuing mostly dry but less cold, night frosts. Rather cloudy.[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]The change to much colder conditions took place on schedule last Wednesday. A remarkable temperature range on Tuesday here, from -6c minimum up to +11c (17c) thanks to the West Wales foehn effect, in which the easterly breeze desecending the nearby Cambrian hills dried out and warmed considerably, this effect shown by the very low humidity of 39% during the afternoon. A cloudy cold spell this for the Midlands has prevented really cold nights, nothing below -1c since Wednesday at Coventry. It has been very dry of late, 10 successive dry days here in Lampeter is the longest dry spell since June 2010 (which had 14 days), and not before time! No measurable rain (or snow) for Warwickshire either, where Bablake School, Coventry has now recorded 10 consecutive dry days (below 0.2mm), but here only the longest spell since just before the Midlands 'drought' ended last April. The Midlands had a little light snow yesterday, but barely enough for a covering for the majority. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Another mostly dry week ahead with high pressure over or close to the UK throughout, and although still on the cold side, less cold than have been the past 5 days. The Scandinavian high that has provided this cold spell gradually transfers south-west to be centred over northern UK early this week, and so the really cold air supply from Russia is cut off as we come more under the circulation of the high itself. Clear intervals developing tonight with another frost, coldest for West Wales where it gets down to -4c in parts. Still a cold NE wind for Monday and with weak fronts being carried west across England and Wales, there will be a little drizzle or sleet in places, mostly for the Midlands but not amounting to much. A cloudy day with highs of just 4 or 5c. Similar for Tuesday, so after a slight frost, a mostly cloudy day with spits of drizzle or sleet in the air, more especially for the Midlands. Sunny intervals for parts of West Wales during Tuesday. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=162118:PPVG89 Int H N m dry cold Mon.png][attachment=162119:ecmt850.048 cold NE flow Mon.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]By Wednesday or Thursday the high is centred over or just west of Ireland, and so winds are very light and the air less cold. Variable cloud through Wednesday and Thursday, some of us seeing sunny intervals while others remain largely overcast, difficult to say just where gets any sun though. Temperatures a little milder, reaching 6 to 8c, although any clear intervals will lead to frost and some fog patches readily forming overnight. In fact where fog does form on Wednesday or Thursday it could well be slow to clear during the daytime with so little wind, and where the fog and murk lasts all morning highs of just 3 or 4c.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=162120:PPVK89 Int H Scot less cold dry frosts.png][attachment=162123:h850t850eu H north UK dry less cold Wed.png][attachment=162121:ecmt850.096 H Ire Thu dry less cold fog.png][attachment=162122:metslp.96 H Ire Thu dry brighter.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]High pressure still close by to the north-west on Friday, a suggestion that milder Atlantic air tracks about the high, so the mildest day of the week on Friday perhaps, with maxima around the early March average of 8 or 9c. A dry day with sunny intervals, after overnight frost and fog clears. There were strong indications for an Arctic cold blast bringing wintry showers over next weekend through the recent days model output, however this has now been much watered down due to high pressure remaining close to the UK, and with the main cold northerly thrust being pushed into the Continent instead. In fact the latest model runs suggest Saturday will be a pleasant day with plenty of sunshine and average temperatures of 8 to 10c. So at the moment it looks as though the UK will miss out on the next potential cold snap? However, it is not at all unusual for sharp frosts and snow showers to fall at any stage during March even though technically we are into Spring![/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=162124:ecmt850.144 Sat R dry bright frosts.png][/size][/font][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=162125:ecmt850.168 dry colder Sun sharp frosts.png][/size][/font]
  25. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Unsettled again; drier early week, rain and showers later. Warm and humid blip mid week.[/b]

    April to June 2012 has already been the wettest ever for this three month period (records back to 1766) for England and Wales overall. June itself may fall a little short of being the wettest ever, although it is up there with the wettest June's for many places. Llanwnnen is currently on 198mm (8 inches), while Coventry has had 128mm so far.

    In spite of a mainly dry, bright start to last week, the rains returned from Wednesday night, although with not quite as much as in recent excessively wet weeks. There has been an unfortunate lack of light and sunshine for this, the period of greatest day length, along with consistently cool temperatures, giving more of an Autumnal feel. Fields are permanently waterlogged, and rivers in spate as though it were Winter!

    Perhaps a slight improvement in the weather again this week, better temperatures, even with a touch of warmth for a short while in the middle of the week, and a drying out process to mid week too, but the rain and showers are set to return, as low pressure is never far away from the British Isles, what with the Jet Stream continuing to be displaced to these low latitudes. Yet again, a week with the true arrival of Summer delayed. Chance of a thunderstorm in parts (most likely for the Midlands) during Thursday as the upcoming warm blip gives way.

    Sunday afternoon is turning out mostly dry and bright with just a few showers dotted about. Monday too should be a generally dry and bright day and with light winds, temperatures close to average at 19-21c. During this first half of the week high pressure over France attempts to take control, but is not strong enough to prevent fronts moving across England and Wales that are connected to a low sat out on the Atlantic, well west of Ireland. The first of these weakish fronts brings more cloud for Tuesday and even a little rain and drizzle for Wales, but it should remain dry for the Midlands, and feeling quite warm again here. The next and warm front moves up on Tuesday night which introduces some warm, humid Tropical southerly air to Wales and England for the mid week period. After a warm sticky night, and some further rain for Wales for a while into early Wednesday, the day then brightens up with warm, sunny spells for many of us. Most parts then become dry with some sunshine Wednesday afternoon and just the chance of a few thundery showers about by the evening. Temperatures reaching 22 to 24c.
    [attachment=135779:Rtavn601 H France L Atl Tue.png][attachment=135778:brack2 weak fronts warmer air Wed.gif][attachment=135780:brack2a warm humid Wed.gif][attachment=135781:Recm722 H France L Atl warm air arrives Wed.gif]

    The low west of Ireland then pushes towards us during Thursday as the Continental high gives way, and with even warmer upper atmospheric air ahead of this, there is the potential for some heavy downpours and thunderstorms in places during Thursday. Probably too much cloud and general rain about for west Wales to appreciate the warm upper air temperatures, but the Midlands should see some sunny intervals and maxima as high as 25c perhaps, this warmth in turn triggering heavy downpours and thunderstorms for the latter part of the day. Perhaps no warmer than 22c though for cloudier west Wales. So a fair chance of a thunderstorm for the MIdlands by Thursday evening for those of us who appreciate such displays of nature. Meanwhile the real heat is over the south of France where 100F (38c) looks likely next Thursday!
    [attachment=135782:brack4 turning thundery or wet Thur.gif][attachment=135783:Recm962 warm humid thundery potential Thu.gif][attachment=135784:Rtavn1022 thundery thu poss.png][attachment=135785:Rtavn1084 rain poss storms Thu pm.png][attachment=135786:Rtavn10817 100f S France.png]

    The low is over northern Britain on Friday, so the winds have turned south-west with cooler Atlantic air once more, a day of sunny spells and showers. Temperatures down to near normal at around 19 or 20c with quite strong winds. As we reach July, next Sunday, unfortunately still no sign of Summer proper, with a rather cool and showery air-stream over the UK for next weekend.
    [attachment=135787:Rtavn1262 fresher showery Fri.png][attachment=135788:Recm1442 cooler showery weekend.gif][attachment=135789:Rtavn1741 unsettled cool showery weekend.png]
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