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TonyH

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  1. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Headline: Changeable, turning colder, night frosts. Very cold with snow threat later.[/b][/size][/font]

    [b][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]2012 was a very wet year, the second wettest year of the past century for the UK averaged out overall.[/size][/font][/b]


    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Llanwnnen: 1526mm wettest year since 2008
    Coventry, Bablake School: 894mm, wettest since 2007
    Rugby:874mm, wettest since 1882 (916mm)!

    These figures show that Coventry tends to be wetter than it's near neighbour, due to Rugby being that bit further east. The Midlands are - needless to state - a lot drier than west Wales, with an exceptionally wet year at Rugby still being drier than the driest ever years at Llanwnnen. Incredibly the first 3 months of 2012 were dry with drought orders in place, and just 85mm from January to March at Rugby.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]December 2012 figures (again very wet):[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Llanwnnen: 257mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Coventry: 117mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Rugby: 112mm[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Almost certainly 2013 must be drier! At least January has began in a much drier, benign vein, however, the highest barometer readings since May (1039mbar), did not prevent occasional drizzle from falling over west Wales. Still no snow this Winter for most of us, and 2012 had no lying snow at all at Llanwnnen. A mild start to the year, the past 4 nights staying above 8c at Llanwnnen, the DAYTIME average for January is lower than this at 7c. Turning much colder by next weekend and there MAY be snow in places.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Another mostly cloudy but mild afternoon on Sunday, just the odd spit of drizzle for parts of west Wales, maxima around 10c once more. Our high pressure is losing ground to Atlantic fronts, but has enough presence to our south-east to keep at least the Midlands dry still on Monday. A waving front over Ireland threatens a little rain or drizzle at times on Monday for Wales, and perhaps some heavier bursts for Snowdonia. Mild again highs around 10c once more. Quite a strong SW wind developing for west Wales. The cold front slowly crosses all parts during Tuesday, so another mostly cloudy day. with rain slowly working east. Probably wet even to start the day for west Wales, while it may be late in the day before rain reaches the Midlands. A wet Tuesday in prospect for west Wales though, some rather heavy rain at times here. Tuesday is however the last of the mild days this week. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=151498:PPVG89 some rain WW dry Mids Mon.png][attachment=151499:PPVJ89 CF rain to east Tue.png][attachment=151500:ecmt850.048 tr slowly comes over Tue wet pm.png][attachment=151501:ukprec wet day west Wales Tues.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A ridge of high pressure follows the rain for Wednesday, which starts with a ground frost for many places. Then a nice bright and dry day but cooler than of late, maxima of 7 or 8c, close to the January average. Wednesday night is largely clear and frosty with fog patches affecting some areas by Thursday morning. Big changes in our weather pattern underway from Thursday leading to a much colder and potentially wintry one, as a blocking high forms somewhere to our north. The exact positioning of this high will dictate how cold it gets from next weekend, but the potential is there for a very cold spell setting in with snow in places.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=151502:PPVL89 dry bright Wed.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]But back to Thursday itself, our ridge is getting squeezed by lows to the west and north-east, will this hang on? If so another bright, and coldish day after a frosty and possibly foggy start, however rain may threaten west Wales later. Exact weather details becoming increasingly difficult to pinpoint as we enter atmospheric flux, so do not make plans on the basis of this guide for next weekend! It is most likely that during Friday low pressure slides close to SW UK bringing rain here, hard to say how far north-east this extends at this predictive range, so Friday looks dry for most, but rain may edge up, more especially into south Wales and perhaps also the south Midlands, and as it does so colder Continental air is dragged over the UK. Just the chance of rain turning to snow for southern parts later on Friday or on Friday night, a cold and raw day maxima probably just 3 or 4c.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=151503:met.96 THu R m dry.png][attachment=151504:PPVO89 R hangs on Thu tr into SW.png][attachment=151505:ecmt850.144 FRi cold raw snow threat south.png][attachment=151506:h850t850eu cold m dry Fri.png][/size][/font]


    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]The ECM model has a very cold scenario next weekend, with a high close to Iceland and low over the near Continent, a really cold raw NE blast over the UK. GFS also shows a very cold weekend to come, but with a Scandinavian high in place. It will not take much in these kind of set ups for localised snowfalls to occur, no way of knowing where and when as yet, but suffice to say next weekend looks very cold with snow in places. Maxima barely above freezing come Sunday, so quite a shock to the system after all the mild, quiet weather of late! The cold set up looks like lasting well into the following week too.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=151507:ecmt850.168 v cold windy weekend snow showers poss.png][attachment=151508:h850t850eu Scand H v cold tr into W snow threat.png][/size][/font]
  2. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Mostly cold and frosty with a few wintry showers but often dry; more unsettled with snow risk Tuesday to Thursday[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights[/b]

    A mild start to last week - it reached 12c in places on Monday which was a wet day especially for West Wales (WW). It turned colder on Tuesday with some areas getting snow, parts of WW saw quite a bit, several inches on high ground, even Llanwnnen collected 3cm relatively low down by the Teifi valley. Further wintry showers into Tuesday evening and night with vivid lightning and thunder across Wales, large hail and a tornado affecting Haverfordwest! Quite strange to watch the lightning flashing away while stood on a snow covered lawn! Wednesday evening and night saw heavy rain and strong to gale force winds, about an inch of rain for much of Wales and the Cotswolds, and locally damaging winds, highest gusts 96mph Capel Curig, 83mph Aberdaron, 81mph Mumbles with 61mph here at Llanwnnen (site record SRB 2013) Parts of the Midlands relatively unscathed though getting little rain and shelter from the worst of the winds. The low did have a warm sector overnight Wednesday when temperatures widely 10 or 11c. Chilly then since Thursday with wintry showers and some further temporary slight snow coverings in places, particularly Friday night (1cm Llanwnnen) and including parts of the Cotswolds and South Midlands. A fresh 10cm lay over the Brecon Beacons on Saturday morning.

    The first 17 days of January have been wet across Wales and much of the Midlands, but only a little above average for some parts of the Midlands, 125mm so far here at Llanwnnen, 41mm at Coventry, and 31mm Long Lawford thus far. It has been a mild month to date.

    [b]The week ahead[/b]

    Quite a cold week ahead, indeed it looks like being the coldest week since March 2013 such was the absence of cold throughout last Winter. Sunny intervals and a few wintry showers for the most part with plenty of dry, bright weather between, and frosty nights. However Tuesday and Wednesday sees an unsettled interlude, and given the chilly air there could be some sleet and snow about, although this perhaps not widespread at lower levels, for high ground (above say 250m) though the mid week period will be quite snowy with a good few inches settling up there.

    A frosty, sunny Sunday morning for many, largely dry this aftenoon with further sunny spells and the odd wintry shower, especially for Pembrokeshire as a 'Dangler' shower line may set up. Rather cold highs between 4 and 6c with a moderate north breeze. Clear and calm tonight with a sharp frost and freezing fog in places, lows between -3 and -6c, milder for most coasts. A slight ridge over us for Monday so a dry cold day in store. Freezing fog patches may be slow to clear and where these linger temperatures struggling to reach 0c, but elsewhere sunny spells and chilly highs between 2 and 4c with little wind. Another frost sets in during Monday evening and a dry, frosty night for the Midlands down as low as -4c, but clouding over WW by around midnight.

    Tricky predictions follow with fine and shifting margins dictating just where it will rain or snow: an occluded front edges east during Tuesday this bringing some rain, sleet and snow across Wales in the early hours, snow more likely inland and especially above 150m. This mix of precipitation moves onto the Midlands through Tuesday morning, again rain or sleet more likely at low levels with snow tending to be restricted to land above about 150m but this by no means certain, and it could turn out that even some low level places see snow falling at least for a time on Tuesday. Coastal areas of WW for sure will only be getting rain however. The wintry mix in any case clears WW afternoon with sunny intervals and the odd wintry shower following before dusk. Highs Tuesday between 2 and 5c with quite light winds. Some clearances during Tuesday evening with frost readily forming, however another wintry band of weather is set to move in from the WNW during the night. Slightly colder air digging in and so perhaps this band falling more generally as sleet or snow, with hills in particularly getting several cm coverings, but even some lower ground could have a covering come Wednesday morning.

    A flabby low slowly sinks south over the UK during Wednesday and with the still rather cold airmass there could be some wintry surprises for some! Bands of wintry precipitation or wintry showers within the lows circulation, although equally there will be areas where it is largely dry. All we can say is that there is a risk of snow for some places once more, perhaps the NE Midlands most at risk? Other places will see only rain, sleet or hail (especially coasts) while others escape largely dry, but for some of us a snowfall will occur during Wednesday even giving some accumulation. For hills above about 250m it should be snow all the way so long as precipitation is falling that is, with a good few inches settling should this happen. Maxima Wednesday generally 2 to 4c, perhaps 6c for coastal SW Wales. Wintry showers and some longer spells of sleet or snow continue well into Wednesday night, with perhaps the Midlands seeing a spell of snow and a covering even to lower levels by Thursday morning, but anywhere really could wake to a covering of snow. Clear intervals too which will allow slight frosts to form and so there will be icy stretches to watch for even if no snow cover exists, lows down to -2c in places.

    During Thursday the low sinks south into the Continent, a drier, brighter day expected with sunny intervals, but still some further wintry showers about and a cold NE breeze, highs just 2 to 4c. Any showers die out pm Thursday and it will be a frosty night, minima between -3 and -5c generally and even colder where there is snow cover, perhaps a -9c here and there. By the end of the week a degree of uncertainty as to whether the cold weather relinquishes or holds on over the weekend? On the whole a prediction of it staying on the cold side through most of the weekend would seem applicable. Plenty of dry weather for Friday and Saturday then but some further wintry outbreaks are possible in places too but these probably not widespread if at all. Some sunny spells and frosty nights. Sunday too could hold onto chilly and fairly dry weather..
    [attachment=239881:PPVG89 dry frost poss ff MO cold.png][attachment=239882:ecmt850.048 cold frosty Mo.png][attachment=239883:PPVJ89 wintry mix r cold Tu.png][attachment=239885:ecmt850.072 unsettled TU WE wintry mix chiefly hill snow r cold.png][attachment=239886:ecmt850.096 cold wintry precip about WE.png][attachment=239893:PPVL89 wintry mix WE chiefly hill snow cold.png][attachment=239898:viewimage wintry bands about We cold.png][attachment=239890:ecmt850.144 disruption wintry chances later FR.png][attachment=239887:viewimage wintry mix disturbance r cold Sa.png][attachment=239892:ecmt850.168 frsoty R Su.png][attachment=239894:viewimage precip TU WE otherwise m dry.png][attachment=239895:viewimage r cold week.png][attachment=239896:viewimage unsettled mid week.png][attachment=239897:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color]
  3. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Rather unsettled and cool, rain at times mainly mid week; fine and warm from Friday[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Some pleasant sunny spells last week, although Thursday, and in some places Friday too, turned out disappointing with quite a drop of rain, and wetter and cooler than anticipated in the previous guide. Ceredigion was the coldest part of the UK on Monday night, with lows of 2c at Swyddffynnon and Llanwnnen and a grass frost - yes in late June! June 2013 has been fairly dry but slightly cool overall, rainfall figures:[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Llanwnnen: 53mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Rugby: 33mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Coventry: 56mm one of a few locally average spots![/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Another somewhat changeable week ahead, some, but not an awful lot of rain at times, and temperatures mostly on the cool side for July. Average maxima for July are as follows and as warm as they will get during the course of a year:[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Lampeter: 20c[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Aberystwyth: 20c[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Coventry: 22c[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Although a cloudy start in places on Sunday, sunshine is breaking through, and we should all be seeing warm sunny spells through this afternoon, although coastal West Wales cloudier and cooler, even some drizzle in places here. Highs on Sunday afternoon ranging from 24c for the East Midlands to 17c for Pembrokeshire coasts. A weakening front brings cloud to all of us this evening, again with drizzle in places, then overnight clear intervals develop and a cooler fresher night, lows of 9 to 11c. A weak ridge of high pressure follows for Monday, a bright, cool day with a westerly breeze, sunny intervals and the odd light shower, although SW Wales could end up with a nice, sunny evening. Highs on Monday just 15c for coastal West Wales and 18c for the Midlands. Dry and quite cool on Monday night with lows around 9c. Turning unsettled for the mid week period as Atlantic lows march across towards Scotland. Fronts bringing rain to Wales from early Tuesday morning, this spreading into Midlands by midday, although this may turn lighter and patchy through the afternoon, before a wet evening for West Wales. Cool with all the cloud on Tuesday, highs of just 14c or so for West Wales, but 18c for the Midlands, where a few brighter chinks may occur. Further rain at times through Tuesday night, much of it quite light though. Quite a strong SW wind for Tuesday evening and night, especially over western coasts.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]One low is moving away on Wednesday with another hard on its heels moving to the NW of Ireland. A bit messy, various fronts and bits and pieces of rain or drizzle, equally some sunshine in places and feeling muggy over the Midlands, highs again showing the west: east disparity, ranging from 16c for coastal Wales to 20c over parts of the Midlands. A more appreciable spell of rain and strong winds likely overnight Wednesday into Thursday along the cold front of the system, a possibility the rain could linger a while, but Thursday more likely to eventually be a brighter day of sunny intervals and a few showers. Quite cool again on Thursday highs 16 to 19c west to middle. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Improvements from Friday, as high pressure takes charge over the UK, it will be dry and bright with sunny spells, warm over the Midlands, maxima up to 23c, but cooler with onshore breezes keeping it closer to 19c for coasts of West Wales. High pressure looks like remaining in control over next weekend also, so the promise of a fine, reasonably sunny and warm one, potentially very warm by Sunday when 26c may be reached over the Midlands, but refreshing sea breezes for the Welsh coasts, 20c nearer the mark here. The likelihood that it could warm up even further early in the week that follows, into the 80's even![/size][/font]
    [attachment=176251:PPVG89 wk R m dry cool Mon.png][attachment=176252:ecmt850.072 rain times Tue.png][attachment=176253:PPVO89 rain to showers Thu windy.png][attachment=176254:ecmt850.120 H moves into Eng dry r warm Fri.png][attachment=176255:h850t850eu mostly settled warm weekend.png][attachment=176256:h850t850eu mostly settled warm weekend.png][attachment=176257:t850Caerdydd~-~Cardiff.png]
  4. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Very changeable with spells of rain and strong winds at times; localised flooding[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]As expected the storm that affected the south and SE of England early on Monday missed Wales and the Midlands, although we did get the rain! Church Lawford having 33mm in the 24 hours to 1800, with many other places getting over half an inch (12.5mm). Then further rain at times through the remainder of the past week but with drier interludes also. On Tuesday night many parts saw a grass frost , and here at Llanwnnen the first air frost of the Season occurred, getting down to -0.6c. October ended up very mild, cloudy and very wet. Coventry with 146.4mm rain had it's wettest October since 1903 (162mm) Other monthly rainfall totals:[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Llanwnnen: 214.2mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Pembrey Sands: 177.2mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Capel Curig: 333.5mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Daventry: 121.7mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Little Rissington: 142.2mm[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Another very unsettled and at times wet and windy week ahead with temperatures generally close to average (11c maxima). On top of the very wet October any additional bouts heavy rain will present the risk of localised flooding through the coming week. A vigorous low is crossing northern Britain through Saturday bringing strong to gale force winds. Winds increasing to give gale to severe gale force gusts through this afternoon and evening, 70mph gusts expected for coastal West Wales while 50mph gusts will occur inland which is likely to bring some trees down and cause minor structural damage. Further heavy showers for West Wales for Saturday night with hail in places, strong winds through the night easing by dawn. A brief respite between systems on Sunday, sunny intervals and just a few scattered showers, especially for West Wales. The next low then moves across SW England during Sunday evening, the rain from this pushing north into SW Wales by early evening. Always uncertainty with these south tracking lows as to how far north the rain will affect, but at this point heavy rain reaches as far as Ceredigion and Birmingham perhaps overnight Sunday but this may be subject change as the time approaches. Parts of the South Midlands may receive 20mm of rain from this system over Sunday night with localised flooding possible for counties such as Gloucestershire and Northamptonshire by Monday morning as the low clears SE England. At least we should miss the gale force winds associated with this low which stay to the south over northern France. The clearance occurs in the early hours with a grass frost in places. A bump of higher pressure for Monday which should be a mostly dry and bright if slightly cool day. Maxima on Monday 10c at best for most, although Pembrokeshire should manage 11c. Clearing skies for the Midlands on Monday evening may lead to a temporary touch of ground frost, but for West Wales the next band of rain arrives during the evening. This rain, some of which could be heavy, moves onto the Midlands after midnight, but clears through Wales around dawn. Early rain perhaps for the Midlands on Tuesday accompanied by strong SW winds. Bright and breezy for much of Tuesday, with blustery showers for West Wales, but most of the Midlands escaping these, highs on Tuesday 10 to 12c. Iffy for Bonfire night as some rain may be spreading into SW Wales through the evening, with the Midlands having a better chance of a dry one![/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Timings may increasingly go astray from mid week with such a mobile, changeable Atlantic weather pattern! Wednesday looks like starting dry for some, and for the Midlands the next bout of rain may hold off until late afternoon or evening? However, an active weather system comes through later on Wednesday bringing rain to West Wales afternoon, some heavy, and this could well affect the Midlands too by evening. A milder day but becoming quite windy highs of 12 or 13c. So, eventually mild, wet and windy for Wednesday. A warm sector with rain at times for during Wednesday night, also some strong gusty winds, but the cold front comes through by dawn and temperatures drop to 7 to 9c. Sunny intervals and showers for Thursday, most of these for West Wales and parts of the Midlands have a dry afternoon. Highs on Thursday close to the early November average at 10 or 11c but with a keen westerly breeze. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Friday looks promising for another respite from the wind and rain as a weak ridge crosses the UK, however this may well alter to something more damp. Any dry interlude does not last with the next Atlantic low moving in on Saturday, this could bring more heavy rain and gales next weekend.[/size][/font]
  5. TonyH
    [font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][size=4][b]Headline: Mostly dry with sunny spells; quite cold with night frosts[/b]

    So ends the coldest March since at least 1962, and the coldest month of 'Winter'. This fact all the more remarkable as we had a fairly cold Winter, this the first time March has been colder than a colder than average Winter since 1786 for Central England! Here in West Wales there were only small amounts of snow through March, although some sleet or snow fell on 13 days. It has been very snowy for Warwickshire, and the temperature at Coventry has not been above 5c since Thursday 21st, a prolonged spell of exceptional cold for the late March. Last Sunday was one of the latest ever Ice Days for Coventry with a high of -0.4c. Daytimes were not as cold here in West Wales, but there have been some very low night temperatures, with -8.4c at dawn on Thursday, and then -7c on Saturday morning and -6.6c this Easter Sunday morning (incidentally Braemar in Scotland has recorded the coldest ever UK Easter Sunday at -12.4c). It is though notable how quickly the temperature recovers after dawn with the strong sunshine, it was up to +2c by 9am here a rise of over 8c in 2 hours. At least it has been a mainly dry week, and we are set to have another mainly dry week ahead, but on the cold side for early April with frosts expected on each night, although as we will be into April and the sun is gaining strength, not as cold as this past week. Spring limping into action as Winter starts to lose it's grip but at least the Daffs are out!

    Our high pressure that has blocked the mild Atlantic for so long is centred north of Scotland until mid week, so the mostly dry and decidedly chilly/ cold spell continues. Low pressure is squeezing into the high on Monday so a fresh to strong SE wind to start the week, especially windy West Wales. Sunny spells for most places and predominantly dry, just the odd wintry shower possible for the East Midlands. Maxima on Monday in the 5 to 8c range, and it almost goes without saying that the nights will be seeing sharp Spring frosts throughout the week, and as the winds lessens mid week. Some rather severe frosts again, locally down to -6c. Tuesday another dry day, lighter winds so temperatures a touch higher reaching 7 to 9c, and not feeling too bad with the sunny spells. By Wednesday a similar story with the easterly wind bringing air from a still thoroughly chilled Eastern Europe. Feeling cold again in the breeze on Wednesday in spite of the sunny spells, temperatures well below average reaching 6 to 9c, and generally dry once more, just a few wintry showers getting into the Midlands from off the North Sea.
    [attachment=167402:PPVJ89 r cold dry Tues.png][attachment=167403:h850t850eu Tues r cold m dry frosts.png][attachment=167404:ecmt850.072 slack E sharp frosts few wintry showers Wed.png]

    Winds turn more NE on Thursday so certainly not the warmer direction that we may be desperate for! Thursday and Friday quite a fresh NE wind blows bringing some wintry showers (rain, sleet or snow) mostly to the Midlands, while many places remain dry. Bright with some decent sunny spells, and West Wales may be fairly sunny later in the week, so not feeling too cold here out of the wind. Highest temperatures for Thursday and Friday a cool 7 to 9c, the highest readings for coastal West Wales where it is sunniest. Further frosts overnight, lows between -1c and -4c.
    [attachment=167405:PPVO89 Chill NE some wintry showers Thu.png][attachment=167406:ecmt850.120 chill NE some wintry showers Fri.png][attachment=167407:h850t850eu cool NE Fri few showers.png]


    High pressure close by next weekend but still the air is cool. Generally dry with plenty of sunshine but again some sharp frosts by night, as low as -5c in places. Daytime temperatures on the mend and eventually by Sunday we could hit the dizzy heights of 10c (although still below average!).[/size][/font]
  6. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Very unsettled with damaging gales and flooding problems likely at times; variable but often quite chilly temperatures, some frost[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Wet and windy last week, Llanwnnen had 90mm rain in the past 7 days - 35mm of this fell on Wednesday with localised flooding; rather wet for the Midlands too, Coventry having had 25mm. Temperatures very up and down some days like Monday were very mild, in fact in the early hours of Monday much of the Midlands was above 13c! Thursday was one of the colder days and some parts saw snow showers, we did here at Llanwnnen although it did not lie, the temperature dropped down to just 1c in the mid afternoon sleet and snow. Thunder also featured in the showers for parts of Wales on Thursday, and again on Saturday when a solitary flash of lightning followed by a low rumble was heard during a squall that gave a 53mph gust of wind here. Gales in places last week too, one of the strongest gusts was of over 80mph at Pembrey, Carmarthenshire on Wednesday evening. More very windy and wet weather at times in the coming week as two significant low pressure systems affect the UK. A White Christmas is unlikely although it would only take one flake to fall![/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Sunday, and at least we are seeing sunny intervals, although some areas, as with this morning, are being affected by heavy showers with hail and thunder, while other areas, particularly parts of the Midlands escaping these altogether though, highs on Sunday 7 to 9c, a little above average. Showers tending to die down tonight but a few continuing for West Wales, temperatures down to 1 to 3c with a ground frost in places, coasts escaping though. Cloud and wind increases late in the night as a rapidly deepening depression heads towards Ireland. This low is the main feature of the week as it will be one of the deepest, most intense storms to pass close to the UK in many years, and will be bringing severe damaging gales on Monday - the central pressure will fall below 930mbar! The depression will track to the west of Ireland through Monday, and it will already be blowing a gale with heavy rain to greet the dawn on Monday for Wales and with these conditions quickly spreading to the Midlands through the morning. The Midlands is not likely to escape these damaging winds on this occasion as the isobars (pressure lines) are very tight across all UK. Strong to gale force south to SW winds then, inland gusts exceeding 60mph, while for coasts and hills of Wales 80 to 90mph gusts are likely, these speeds will bring down plenty of trees, cause power outages and structural damage. Not just severe gales but heavy rain too associated with this low, and once the rain starts it is set to last through to at least late evening, and will be very heavy at times, especially for Wales, so flooding too will be a problem as we go though the day for some areas. Parts of South Wales undoubtedly set to receive 2 or 3 inches of rain on Monday with an inch falling on most places. Irrelevant considering the other conditions but it will be a mild day, peak temperatures 9 to 11c during Monday evening. The rain should then turn more showery by the early hours of Tuesday, these showers heavy and quite frequent across Wales with hail and possibly thunder, a windy night but the gales should have abated inland. The low continues to deepen on Tuesday as it tracks past Scotland and may reach as low as 925mbar. Historically, the Braer storm of January 1993 saw an estimated 914mbar, but was further north of Scotland, and is thought to be the deepest extra tropical cyclone on record for the North Atlantic [url="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braer_Storm_of_January_1993"]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braer_Storm_of_January_1993[/url][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Windy and showery on Tuesday, SW winds gusting to gale force. Although winds will be SW, the air has originated over a freezing cold Canada several days previously and is categorised as 'returning Polar maritime' (rPm), and is inherently cold at height if not surface. So a chilly, windy Tuesday with showers, especially across West Wales, parts of the Midlands may escape with a mostly dry, bright day. Cold enough for sleet or snow over the hills on Christmas Eve, above 300m most favoured for wintriness, although it should not settle, many places seeing hail showers on Tuesday. Maxima on Tuesday 5 to 7c. Showers lessening overnight and with clear spells a widespread slight frost develops as the wind decreases substantially, minima by Christmas Day morning around 0c except for milder coasts. A respite from the winds on Christmas Day, we have a slack area of low pressure crossing the SW so moderate breezes at worst! Still rather an unsettled picture with some areas experiencing showers, but more of us managing a generally dry day with sunny intervals. Interestingly we are still in the rather cold rPm air and so if you do see a blob of sleet on the car windscreen on Wednesday then you have technically experienced a 'White Christmas' - I should not rush out and place a late bet though! The Midlands looks best bet for a pleasant bright and chilly afternoon walk, while West Wales will see further rain and hail showers, sleety stuff perhaps for hills. Highs of 5 to 7c for the Big Day. With clearing skies and light winds a widespread slight air frost is likely overnight, although still some showers keep going in places, especially for Wales, again with sleet or wet snow for the hills. Temperatures down to -2c locally.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A bit of a respite again for Thursday too, a slight bump of relatively high pressure kills most of the shower activity, still some places catching them though, and much of the day fairly dry and bright with sunny intervals. Highs on Thursday 5 to 7c again and slightly cold for late December. A frost may develop for the Midlands on Thursday evening but more trouble is looming out west! Another deep low is moving quickly towards Ireland on Thursday evening bringing rain and strong winds to Wales. As this system is still 4 or 5 days off it still has to treated with a degree of hypothesis, but again there is a strong suggestion of damaging gale to severe gales affecting Wales and England on Thursday night into Friday. The GFS is this morning showing a 940mbar system tracking close to Ireland then Scotand through Friday with very tight isobars which would produce damaging gales similar to Monday, while ECM shows the low not as deep or damaging perhaps. Suffice to say Friday morning at least looks a washout with strong to gale force winds, the rain heavy in places with flooding potential although it may clear to showers pm. At least it will be mild highs around 10c.[/size][/font]


    [font=arial][size=3]Longer term and the very changeable, disturbed theme continues through next weekend and towards the New Year. Atlantic lows still dominating although brief ridges will dry it up at times, albeit briefly for a day at most. Further showers or longer spells of rain, and possibly wintry showers over higher ground as we are mid Winter. Variable temperatures as lows cross, fluctuating between mild and rather cold, the risk of a few slight frosts on occasion. The chance of more gales exists for the 30th or New Years Eve but that is a long way off to speculate!
    [attachment=199110:PPVG89 Monday storm.png][attachment=199111:ecmt850.048 sub 920 storm Mon night.png][attachment=199112:h850t850eu ex deep L Mon night.png][attachment=199114:ecmt850.048 sub 930 storm Mon night.png][attachment=199115:PPVJ89 windy showery Tue.png][attachment=199116:PPVL89 r cold some showers Christmas Day.png][attachment=199118:ecmt850.096 light winds chilly Christmas Day frost.png][attachment=199119:h850t850eu sh L ligh winds Christmas Day.png][attachment=199120:PPVO89 respite Th.png][attachment=199121:ecmt850.120 rain pot gales Th night.png][attachment=199122:ecmt850.144 potential gales heavy rain Fr.png][attachment=199123:ecmt850.168 unsettled weekend.png][attachment=199124:h850t850eu pot gale 30th.png][attachment=199125:ecmt850.240 more rain New Year.png][attachment=199127:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=199128:prcpSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion very wet Ceredigion.png][attachment=199129:prmslWarwickshire two intense lows.png][attachment=199130:t850Warwickshire fluctuating but r cold temps.png][/size][/font]
  7. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3]
    [b]Headline: Mild to very mild; spells of rain, some heavy, windy at times[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]After a cool start last week was mild for the most part with rain at times, most places receiving between one and two inches of rain through the past 7 days. Monday was very cool over the Midlands with Coventry reaching just 10c, 4c below the mid October average, then by Saturday 18c was recorded widely across the Midlands and also parts of Wales. Some places caught a thundery downpour on Saturday too. Another unsettled but mild week ahead with further heavy rain and strong winds at times.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    The early part of this week is controlled by a complex area of low pressure close to Ireland, so often wet and windy but mild. Sunday afternoon is showery, heavy and squally showers quickly passing through, the chance of a clap of thunder for some, although one or two spots missing them completely. Sunny intervals between and we are still in a very mild air mass, so temperatures up to 15 to 17c in spite of the fresh to strong SW wind. Wind and showers dying out this evening but with some still going for coastal Wales, but then wet weather arrives for SW Wales in the early hours reaching the Midlands by dawn. Another very mild night no lower than 10 or 11c. A spell of heavy rain for many through Monday morning accompanied by a strong SW to south wind, the rain turning lighter and patchier in the afternoon, although still some heavy bursts for West Wales. Mild highs around 15c. Further heavy rain at times during Monday night for Wales again, probably just light rain for the Midlands though. Very mild indeed on Monday night at no lower than 13c, more like it should be on a typical late October afternoon! More rain for all on Tuesday morning this clearing to sunny intervals and showers for the afternoon. Most of the showers affecting SW Wales where some will be heavy and thundery, but only a few for the Midlands on Tuesday afternoon, and with decent sunny breaks it will reach 17c here, while 15c a more typical figure for West Wales. The fresh to strong SW winds continue through Tuesday with gales for exposed coasts. Another double figure celsius night to follow with the wind still quite strong and showers keep going for western coasts.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    By Wednesday the low has transferred to the north of Scotand, this should mean a somewhat drier day but still many places catching the scattered showers, with sunny intervals between these. A fresh westerly by Wednesday afternoon, and cooler and fresher for West Wales at 13 or 14c maxima, but still 16 or 17c for the Midlands as the mild air hangs on here. A cooler night to follow with clear spells down to 5c in places, but holding closer to 10c for most coasts, and a dry night in the main. The next Atlantic low slowly approaches Ireland as we go through Thursday, and so the relatively dry interlude does not last! It could be a dry morning though, and with the Midlands perhaps missing the worst of the rain on Thursday, while West Wales, closest to the trough, looks set for more heavy rain at times, especially on Thursday afternoon. A wet day for Snowdonia then on Thursday where temperatures only manage 12c or so, while for West Wales generally a respectable 14c, and a mild 16c for the East Midlands. Although the southerly breeze will freshen on Thursday, strong winds are not expected. Further rain or showers for Thursday night which is a mild one once more. Little let up on Friday either with a trough of low pressure sat right over England and Wales, so further showers or longer spells of rain, perhaps heavy in places, but mild maxima of between 14 and 16c, and a breezy rather than especially windy day seems probable.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    A broad range of possibilities modelled for next weekend, the best that can be surmised is for a somewhat unsettled but drier couple of days compared with the previous week, so although there will be some further rain and perhaps also strong winds at times, reasonable drier interludes too, so not a washout weekend, and temperatures close to the average which is 12 or 13c at the end of October.[/size][/font]
  8. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Some rain at times, becoming mild mid week; very cool and showery from Friday with potentially damaging frosts next weekend[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Last week saw strong winds with some rain at times, but amounts of rain were generally small. April is shaping up to be a dry month for the Midlands, and with quite small amounts of rain likely in the coming week again here. It was quite warm for the Midlands to mid week, mild rather than warm for West Wales, then we all cooled off on Thursday, and Friday night saw a widespread air frost, but at least the week ended bright and dry. Another rather changeable week with some rain and showers about, mild mid week, especially for the Mdlands, but then the week ends on a very cool and showery note with sharp night frosts making an unwelcome return.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Rain and drizzle for West Wales this Sunday afternoon, and a cloudy afternoon for the Midlands with a little rain later. Skies clear overnight with a ground frost in places. A rather unsettled start to the working week, Monday dawns dry but quickly clouding over for West Wales as the next Atlantic fronts arrive. A cool and rather wet day for West Wales on Monday, most of the rain and drizzle fairly light though, but a very unpleasant, damp and breezy day. Light rain and drizzle then gets to the Midlands by mid afternoon after a bright start to the day here. Although we will be within a warm sector by Monday evening, this mildness will not be apparent through the daytime, what with the dampness and cool westerly breeze at the surface, so maxima of just 10 to 12c will be during the early evening. The weakening cold front will be strung out over Wales and the Midlands on Monday night, so a rather cloudy night with drizzle in places, but it should have dried up by dawn on Tuesday. High pressure close by to our south on Tuesday but still a weak front legacy over the UK, so a rather cloudy but dry day, bar the odd spot of drizzle for West Wales. It could well brighten in the afternoon over the Midlands, and if so pleasantly mild reaching 17c locally, however for cloudier West Wales highs just 12 to 15c, but with much less of a breeze during Tuesday. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=168711:PPVG89 Mon cool some rain.png][attachment=168712:PPVJ89 Tue wk front r cloudy milder.png][attachment=168713:ecmt850.072 dry r cloudy mild Tue to Wed.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Synoptic charts becoming difficult to decipher as early as Wednesday this week, but the trend will be for the relatively mild air to be pushed away to our south by Thursday, and with some quite wet weather possible in the transition process, with a slow moving frontal zone likely to linger over Wales and the Midlands well into Thursday. High pressure keeps much of Wednesday dry for the south, but a slow moving cold front could well bring rain to Wales through Wednesday afternoon, although this is not yet 'nailed' and we could get another mostly dry day instead? In any case, the Midlands more likely to stay dry for most of Wednesday. Temperatures on Wednesday dependent on the progress of the cold front, so if the Midlands manages to stay dry and bright, then a rather warm day in prospect with highs up to a rather warm 18c, but conversely, should West Wales have the cloudy, damp day that seems likely, a cool 11 or 12c only here. If Wednesday was difficult to forecast, then Thursday is little more than guesswork! Slack pressure on Thursday so light winds look almost guaranteed, if not the other elements of the days weather which could be wet or dry! We will have the slow moving front from Wednesday to contend with, this lying somewhere over southern Britain, but it is difficult to tell just how active it will be at this stage, as we also have a ridge of high pressure over central UK. It does though look like the mild air will have been displaced south by Thursday, and where (if) it turns out wet then a very cool day of highs below 10c.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=168714:PPVL89 changes mild but perhaps wet later.png][attachment=168715:metslp.96 CF Wales Wed.png][attachment=168717:h850t850eu CF into mild Wed.png][attachment=168718:PPVO89 Thu weakenig front Mids.png][attachment=168719:ecmt850.120 cool down Thu R after front.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Things seem more sorted out for the end of the week perversely, with high pressure out over the Atlantic and low pressure over the Continent to our east, this means a cool, very cool even, northerly flow for Friday and next weekend. The last of any rain will clear on Thursday night with clear spells and a ground frost developing, lows getting down towards zero. A bright start to Friday, but showers will develop, these becoming heavy with hail and thunder in places, more likely for the Midlands. Disappointing highs between 9 and 11c on Friday in spite of the sunny intervals. Very cool upper air for the time of year is over the UK next Saturday (-6c at 5000 feet), so a frosty dawn on Saturday (6am if you are up), given clear spells on Friday night. Another day of sunny intervals and heavy showers, some with hail again, and a very cool day, maxima struggling to even reach doubles figures 10c. It is possible we could be under a cold ridge next Saturday night, which would be an ideal set up for a notably cold late April night, -5c not out of the question, and a damaging frost for gardeners to watch out for. However, that is a week away and it may be somewhat different come the time. The cool, rather unsettled theme looks like continuing into the start of May, with the heat going to Eastern Europe unfortunately![/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=168720:h850t850eu cool showery Fri.png][attachment=168721:ecmt850.144 cool showery Sat.png][attachment=168722:ecmt850.168 Sun cold R notable late frost poss.png][attachment=168723:ukmintemp exceptionally cold night under R Sun possible.png][attachment=168724:t850Caerdydd~-~Cardiff.png][attachment=168725:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
  9. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Rather cool; unsettled with rain or showers, drier to end the week[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]As the cold Spring draws to a close this week we look forward to Summer... In fact it will end up the coldest Spring since at least 1962 in the Central England Temperature series that goes back to 1659![/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Last week saw notably cool conditions for late May with snow returning to northern hills, while the rest of us saw hail showers and strong cold winds on Thursday and Friday. Coventry and Warwickshire managed only 9c maximum on Friday- the coldest late May day since 1948, while on both Friday and Saturday nights lows of -2c for parts of Ceredigion, the lowest temperatures recorded this far into the year, and with an air frost even on the Carmarthenshire coast! The cold records keep tumbling this Spring, although at least maximum temperatures have recovered to around average levels this weekend thanks to a ridge of high pressure and plenty of strong sunshine. Last week was dry with the showers not adding up to much in the rain gauges. Unfortunately the generally cool theme sees out May with rain or showers at times too this coming week.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A lovely sunny and warm feeling afternoon on Sunday, parts of the Midlands close to 20c, while cooler for West Wales coasts at 14c. Another largely clear and cold night, West Wales should just avoid a air frost as cloud and wind associated with a front over Ireland spreads over by dawn, but a widespread grass frost lows generally 2 to 4c. Turning unsettled from the west during Bank Holiday Monday although the rain should hold off until evening for the Midlands as the front stalls over West Wales in the afternoon which will be cool, wet and quite windy here. Highs just 12c over wet West Wales but 17c for the East Midlands where it stays brighter longer. The rain clears Wales overnight Monday whilst edging into the Midlands, most of it light though here. Lows of 5 to 7c. The occluded front bringing the rain develops it's own low on Tuesday somewhere over southern England so that means a very unsettled day with showers or longer spells of rain, heavy and perhaps thundery at times. There should be a few sunny intervals but with all the cloud and showery rain, a cool day in prospect, maxima just 13 to 15c. The MIdlands in particular could end up with a lot of rain through to Tuesday night.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]This low is still over England or at least very close by on Wednesday which has a cool NE or north wind developing along with some more showery rain for many places, highs betwen 13 and 15c, although if it brightens a touch warmer for the East Midlands 17c possible here. Potentially rather wet in places then again on Wednesday. The models have been teasing with hints of a ridge of high pressure drying things out later in the week, however this will be a struggle with weather fronts travelling about the high crossing at least northern UK. A ridge of sorts on Thursday, so a drier, brighter day in store, although a few showers will affect some areas, especially the Midlands in the afternoon, but not everywhere, and we should all see decent sunny spells. Highs on Thursday 14 to 16c for West Wales where the cool NW breeze is most evident, to 18 or 19c for the Midlands. Some of us then getting a mostly dry, better day on Thursday. Clearing skies and any showers dying out during Thursday night, a touch of ground frost in places as air temperatures fall to 3 to 6c. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]As usual things more difficult to ascertain by the end of the week, and we are taking a much more probabilistic view. A nose of warm sector air may be over us on Friday and potentially a warm day with a few showers and light westerly winds, cloudier for West Wales and sunnier for the Midlands in such a set up, indeed sea fog could plague western beaches on Friday. Disappointingly cool for West Wales with the cloud cover just 14c or so, while the Midlands could hit 20c - it must be stressed though that Friday's scenario may not play out in exactly this way, and it could be that the ridge exerts more strongly giving more of us a warm and sunny day, or conversely that Atlantic fronts are more prolific bringing cloud, some rain and lower temperatures than are anticipated for Friday. The favoured option for next weekend is that high pressure will be fairly close to our west with a rather cool NE breeze over the UK. Hopefully then a mostly dry if not especially warm weekend, and if anywhere catches a shower most likely the Midlands. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=172374:PPVG89 v cool wet WW Mon.png][attachment=172375:PPVJ89 potentially wet Tue.png][attachment=172376:ecmt850.072 Sec L Tue showers lsr.png][attachment=172377:PPVO89 R to W Thu few showers.png][attachment=172378:ecmt850.120 R attempt Thu few showers.png][attachment=172379:h850t850eu R attempt drier warmer Thu.png][attachment=172380:h850t850eu WS few showers Fri.png][attachment=172381:ecmt850.120 warmest day Fri.png][attachment=172382:ecmt850.168 weekend HW LE m dry coolish.png][attachment=172381:ecmt850.120 warmest day Fri.png][attachment=172382:ecmt850.168 weekend HW LE m dry coolish.png][attachment=172383:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=172385:viewimage.png][attachment=172382:ecmt850.168 weekend HW LE m dry coolish.png][/size][/font]
  10. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Rather cold, very unsettled; spells of rain and wintry showers although significant lowland snow cover is not expected[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A generally mild and unsettled fortnight gone, although rather chilly at times in the past week. Rain and showers at times, although generally amounts not suspected to have caused widespread flooding, although parts of SW Wales did see an inch or two rain during Saturday 18th which may well have caused some locally? An exceptionally wet January for much of the Midlands, at Coventry it has already been the wettest January since 1939 - very wet too for West Wales but not as remarkably so - the running monthly total is 185mm here at Llanwnnen. Most places remain devoid of snow and hard frosts this Winter period, nothing especially cold in the past two weeks but we at least we have seen a number of frosty nights down to -2c or so. The coldest night of January thus far at Llanwnnen is a mere -2.8c on Tuesday 14th but by the following evening it was up to 9.3c as a warm sector of air arrived. At least the cloud has broken well at times of late to give a few quite sunny days for the Midlands, although in contrast the past week has been very dull over West Wales, only an estimated 3 hours sunshine since last Monday here for example in total. A very active squall line brought widespread hail and thunder to North Wales and the Midlands yesterday afternoon (Saturday 25th). A notably thundery Winter month has January been.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The week ahead is set to be the first colder than average week of this Winter, saying that no deep cold, but feeling cold after all the mild weather thus far and there is the chance of some snow but probably only small amounts for most below 1000 feet. Frost will feature at times by night, especially in the latter part of the week. Sunday mornings wet and windy weather, which has given over an inch to parts of Wales, is clearing the Midlands this lunchtime to leave a bright afternoon with heavy showers rattling across Wales in particular, and as is typical hail quite a feature for this region. Highs mild on Sunday at 8 to 10c. However, later this afternoon and this evening much colder air moves in from the NW so that the showers start to turn wintry. This evening and tonight then a mix of rain, sleet, hail and even snow showers, the latter especially for above 200m (650 feet) but not exclusively so. Most of the showers restricted to Wales, although a band of wintry showers should cross all parts after midnight. Any snow will be wet and is not expected to give more than a temporary slushy accumulation below 200m, although the hills of Wales should appear whitened by the morning. Nonetheless some areas will be experiencing their first, albeit belated and trivial wintriness of Winter! A grass frost forms quite widely between showers, and where clear spells and slackening breeze permit, a touch of air frost, the Midlands more favoured to drop to around zero tonight. On Monday the deep low is centred close to Northern Ireland with chilly strong westerly winds bringing further blustery showers with hail rather than sleet or snow to West Wales at this stage. A few showers getting across to the Midlands but the better prospect of dry, bright weather here during Monday. Maxima of 5 to 7c, mildest for SW Wales. As the low slowly sinks south down the Irish Sea on Monday night, the showers keep rattling into Wales and some too extended to the Midlands especially after midnight, again with hail, and possibly thunder. Too much wind and cloud on the whole for frost on Monday night, just localised ground frosts, minima generally of 2 to 4c. By Tuesday the low could well be centred over Wales, so further showers, even longer spells of rain in places, some of this quite heavy and so we may be experienced the familiar tale this Winter of localised flooding. The higher hills of Wales perhaps seeing some sleet or snow. Maxima again between 5 and 7c on Tuesday, slightly cold, but at least the wind will have eased. Any sunny intervals probably confined to the Midlands on Tuesday. With clear spells on Tuesday night given the lighter winds means a slight frost will readily form, but is dependent on where cloud manages to break. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]By Wednesday the low has sunk south into France and we pick up a bit of an easterly flow and so a touch colder perhaps. Some limited sunny intervals, plenty of cloud, a scattering of showers, wintry for hills, and they could well be turning increasingly wintry lower down too by the evening, although West Wales may miss these. Highs on Wednesday a chilly 3 to 5c. Showers die out overnight with clearing skies and a widespread frost, down to -3c in places. Thursday holds the best prospect of a dry day in the coming week, a somewhat rare commodity! We sit between low pressure systems but neither does any ridge of high pressure gain ascendance. Hopes then for a mainly, perhaps even completely dry and bright day on Thursday, but a cold one, highs no better than 3 or 4c for most. Friday, and a new deep Atlantic low is headed our way, the track of which is crucial to what weather we experience, as it engages the cold air over the UK. The odds seem to be that it passes just NW of Ireland and so we are on the relatively mild side, and so would experience standard wet and windy weather on Friday, whilst Scotland could be experiencing blizzard conditions. Hill snow risk then on Friday, but more generally lots of heavy cold rain, leading to more flooding issues no doubt! The rain could hold off until well into the afternoon for the East Midlands. Highs a raw 3 to 6c although Pembrokeshire could manage a milder 8c briefly. Proviso: A slight chance remains that the track of this low could end up several hundred miles further south, in which case the Welsh hills and Cotswolds could be hit quite hard by heavy snow next Friday? [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Next weekend seems unanimous on remaining rather cold and unsettled, further showers or longer spells of rain and the potential of some of this being wintry, especially for higher ground. Night frosts where cloud breaks and decreased wind permit.[/size][/font]
  11. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Changeable with some rain at times; drier and milder prospects from mid week, especially Midlands[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The West Wales deluge is over! After one of the wettest Seasons on record, here at Llanwnnen 782mm the total rain for December to February, or two and a half feet! At Coventry only Winter 1976/ 77 has been wetter since 1870 ([url="https://twitter.com/bablakewx"]https://twitter.com/bablakewx[/url] ) . As well publicised this has been the wettest Winter on record averaged out across the whole of Wales and England, however statistics do not tell the whole story, and for some eastern parts it has been unremarkable regards rainfall, with a few places actually below average. There have though been a couple of wetter Seasons in the past, Autumn 2000 holds that crown by a fair margin with 502.7mm the England and Wales figure compared to 450.8mm for this Winter overall.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Some February rainfall totals:[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Llanwnnen: 287.4mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Llanelli: 149.9mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Aberdaron: 124mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Coventry: 74.4mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Rugby: 51.4mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Little Rissington: 145.2mm[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The Valleys and Brecon Beacons of Wales exceeded 400mm in places! In contrast parts of Lincolnshire had less than 40mm.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The Winter was also very notable for its lack of cold and snow, with most low lying areas seeing no lying snow at all - even the hills of Mid Wales have seen precious little. We have had completely snow free Winters before but they are uncommon, and often they are followed by a snowfall or two sometime during March or April. Something of an improvement in weather fortunes this week, with some dry and mild periods mid week onwards, the Midlands better favoured for this.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Bits and pieces of rain and drizzle become more continuous and heavier through Sunday afternoon across Wales and onto the Midlands by early evening along with a fresh to strong SSW wind. The rain clears overnight with a deep low centred over SW England by dawn Monday. This low then fills out over southern England through Monday with light air flows close to it. This means some slow moving downpours likely across Wales and the Midlands, with Cardigan Bay and NW Wales perhaps missing the worst of these. Elsewhere though some very heavy showers knocking about with hail and thunder in places, there should be some sunny intervals between them. Highs of 8 or 9c which is close to the early March average, with fairly light winds. Showers dying out on Monday night for the Midlands but a few keep on for West Wales, where clearances permit a local ground frost, down close to 0c for some inland parts. A very unconvincing ridge tries to dry things out for Tuesday but troughs and lows are surrounding it and so we should not expect a completely dry day as there will be showers, even some longer spells of rain in places, hard to say where exactly. Temperatures again close to average around 9c. Clear spells may well lead to a widespread ground frost on Tuesday night with any showers dying out and little in the way of wind. A proper ridge over southern Britain on Wednesday so much better prospects for a dry day. Fairly mild with sunny intervals although a weak warm front may be bringing drizzle to West Wales by evening. Highs 10 or 11c. Clearing skies means another ground frost and it may well touch zero somewhere.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]High pressure then lies close to southern and eastern UK for the rest of the week and into next weekend, so the best of the weather always over SE England while Atlantic fronts bring spells of rain to the NW. Wales and the Midlands inbetween and so experiencing some decent dry conditions but with the risk of rain extending this far south at times too. SW winds will bring mild air however, and so where it brightens, and best prospects for this are the Midlands then some pretty high temperatures for early March can be expected, with even the first 60f of the Spring a possibility by the weekend. Thursday then looks a generally dry and mild day, sunny intervals especially for the Midlands and South Wales although a front over northern Britain may affect NW Wales with some rain or drizzle possible here later in the day. Mild highs 10 to 12c but with a keen SW wind developing especially over Wales. A more active frontal system may cross all parts on Thursday night with rain for Wales which then affects the Midlands for a time on Friday, but it could be that the high close by kills off the worst of this leaving a mainly dry picture again. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Potential for an incursion of very mild air next weekend, with Saturday most favoured for dry bright and quite warm conditions, the Midlands perhaps reaching 14 to 16c (61f). This scenario still by no means certain, however it should be a dry, mild day at least. Rain may affect West Wales late on Saturday and here more cloud and wind pegging temperatures closer to 12 or 13c. A spell of rain is then likely to cool things off for next Sunday. [/size][/font]
    [attachment=208615:PPVG89 SM showers Mon.png][attachment=208616:PPVJ89 drier Tue some rain about though.png][attachment=208617:h850t850eu some rain about others stay dry Tu.png][attachment=208618:PPVL89 Wed m dry.png][attachment=208619:ecmt850.096 m dry Wed.png][attachment=208620:PPVO89 dry VM MIds some rain WW THU.png][attachment=208621:ecmt850.120 dry mild Mids rain later WW THu.png][attachment=208622:ecmt850.168 potentially VM Sat rain late WW.png][attachment=208623:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=208624:mild from mid week.png][attachment=208625:viewimage above 1020 from TH.png][attachment=208626:viewimage m dry Mids from Wed.png]
  12. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Headline: Cool and unsettled; rain and wind at times, mostly dry Friday/ Saturday[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A cold but dry start to April, coldest over the Midlands last week with more cloud, while plenty of sunshine for West Wales meant that 9 or 10c in the afternoons felt pleasant out of the wind, and I understand that it was pleasant enough to sit outside on Saturday afternoon for the Midlands too. An exceptionally cold Friday night across Wales, the official Met Office stations of Trawsgoed and Sennybridge recording -7c, while my amateur site incredibly got down to -8.5c around dawn on Saturday, quite a few Winters have not managed so low! Comfortably the lowest April temperature I have read in my lifetime, incidentally the coldest ever April night in Wales was -11.2c back on 11th April 1978 at Corwen (diolch [/size][/font][url="https://twitter.com/DerekTheWeather"]@DerekTheWeather[/url][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3] ). Coventry had it's coldest April night since 1990 today down to -3.6c (thanks [/size][/font][url="https://twitter.com/bablakewx"]@bablakewx[/url][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3] ) Three successive nights below -6c here now to this morning, that is the last extreme cold night though. It is now 15 days since measurable rain (or snow) fell at my weather station, the second such 'drought' in just two months. Milder air struggles to get over us in the coming week, it does of a fashion, but only to around the mid April average of 11 to 13c and this not until the very end of the week, and there will be rain at times, especially mid week.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Clouding over on Sunday afternoon but staying dry, with highs around 9c and a cold SE wind affecting West Wales in particular. Most parts dry tonight with clear spells leading to a slight frost, however a little rain may affect SW Wales, keeping it frost-free there. Weak weather fronts lie over SW Britain on Monday so a rather cloudy day with light rain in places, this more especially for SW Wales. Some sunny intervals, these most likely for the Midlands, another rather cool day, highs of 9 or 10c, with a keen ESE breeze making it feel even colder. Clear intervals leading to a slight frost in places on Monday night, although as low pressure moves into SW England further rain will threaten SW Wales and the South Midlands, this perhaps even producing sleet or snow over the Brecon Beacons and Cotswolds. This low pressure sits over southern England whilst filling up during Tuesday, which will be a cold and raw day with rain at times, some perhaps heavy in places. Maxima very poor for April at just 6 to 9c, mildest for SW Wales.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=167903:PPVG89 cool breezy little rain Mon.png][attachment=167904:PPVJ89 cold raw rain at times Tue.png][attachment=167905:h850t850eu Tue cold raw rain times.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A messy synoptic set up into Wednesday with the old weather front strung out across England and Wales, as the next low edges in from the west. Even by mid week though, our cold air mass legacy from early April and before, is proving reluctant to move away, and is why it will be feeling disappointingly cool still. Still some showery rain and hill sleet or snow about through Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, although any clear intervals resulting in a slight frost the air so chilly. Rain dying out for a time on Wednesday even some bright intervals, but another cool day highs just 7 to 9c. By Wednesday night the next and deep low is moving into SW England or South Wales bringing heavy rain and strong winds, not just rain either, as the low engages our cold air mass, Snowdonia and the Peak District seeing more sleet or snow. More rain and wind for Thursday morning, the wind turns NW in the afternoon as the low crosses England, so a cool, showery afternoon and evening in store, with hail in places, and highs on Thursday just 6 to 9c depending on amounts of sunshine during the afternoon.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=167906:ecmt850.072 messy cool unsettled Tue Wed.png][attachment=167907:PPVL89 Wed messy cool unsettled.png][attachment=167908:ecmt850.096 wet windy Wed night.png][attachment=167909:PPVO89 cool rain or showers windy Thu.png][attachment=167910:h850t850eu cool showery Thu after rain.png][/size][/font]


    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Friday could well be the best day of the week, as the low is well to our east, with a bit of a ridge over the UK. A frosty start to Friday, then a fairly sunny and dry day for most, bar an isolated shower, and highs of 10 to 12c which is close to the mid April average.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=167911:metslp.120 quiet Fri.png][attachment=167912:ecmt850.144 Fri m dry frost sun.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]It was looking as though the weekend would see a significant warm up, with mild southerly winds affecting the UK, however this is now less defined, and may well be just a 'blip'. GFS keeps relatively high pressure over England through most of the weekend, and with sunny spells temperatures would reach above average at 13 to 15c, however ECM has a nasty Atlantic low piling in by Saturday night. So according to the ECM model only Saturday may stay mild and fine, then strong to gale force southerly winds and heavy rain arrives by Saturday night and could give a washout next Sunday. Even GFS brings the rain and wind later on Sunday. It does though look as like we will have seen the back of Winter at long last come next weekend (more like Autumn perhaps!).[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=167913:ecmt850.168 IL gales heavy rain late Sat Sun.png][attachment=167914:h850t850eu fine mild weekend.png][/size][/font]
  13. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Unsettled, more rain or showers at times, temperatures close to average. Looking dry next weekend.[/b]

    Although overall April 2012 was the wettest on record for the UK, this was not the case at Coventry where the final amount fell just 2mm short of the all time record of 106mm, nor for Ceredigion, with Llanwnnen receiving 126mm rain compared with the 186mm that fell on Lampeter in April 1998. However, Rugby had almost three times the April average with 129mm falling, and probably a local record amount. All very welcome given the long term rainfall deficit and drought orders, but some drier weather would not go amiss given the flooding that has occurred in places!

    Some very cool weather about at times during the past week just gone; on Thursday Rugby reached just 7c, which is 8c below the early May average figure. However, although the cool northerly snap did arrive as predicted for this weekend, with snow showers in parts of Scotland and northern England, the light winds and some sunshine meant it actually has not felt too bad here in west Wales and we managed 10c to 12c maximum temperatures and stayed mostly dry on Saturday, and were also spared the frosts that some other areas have had.

    Low pressure is set to spoil the May Day Bank Holiday, with a mostly cloudy morning and rain at times, this becoming more showery during the afternoon, some of these heavy. By Tuesday the low is over Scotland, so more showers or even a longer spells of rain, but with sunny intervals between. Temperatures a little below average so reaching 13-15c. Skies clear on Tuesday night, so a ground frost possible in places.
    [attachment=133886:brack0a mon low.gif]

    Wednesday should see a respite and may well turn out generally dry for most places with some sunshine too, so a little warmer up to 17c or so. A bit of a tight squeeze however, with the next low system waiting in the wings to the south-west and bringing more rain later on Wednesday, and more especially for Thursday. A mild night on Wednesday temperatures staying above 10c. This large complex low is then tracking across the UK on Thursday, so potentially a very wet day, with a flood risk in places. The rain should become more showery as the day progresses, especially to the south. Where it brightens up later in the day, it will become warm and humid up to 20c, which in turn will cause some heavy and thundery showers to develop. However, where it remains cloudy and wet only reaching 14c or so. It could be quite a windy day too depending on the exact track of the low, although if it decides to cross Wales then not so windy. The low track will also determine whether the warm conditions reach our areas or not?
    [attachment=133887:Recm722 respite poss gf tue night.gif] [attachment=133888:brack3 respite wed.gif] [attachment=133893:Rtavn782 squeeze wed drier or not.png][attachment=133889:Recm962 next low wed night.gif] [attachment=133890:brack4 complex L very wet thu.gif] [attachment=133891:Rtavn964 wet start thu.png] [attachment=133892:Rtavn1021 thu low.png]

    Previous recent model runs were indicating that southern parts would be getting a brief but very warm blip on Friday, up to 25c in places! Now though this is looking much less likely, with the warm sector of the low soon swept away east into Europe. So, the end of the week looks like drying out with a better weekend in prospect. Quite a cool and breezy day for Friday first though, with some showers still knocking about. High pressure builds across Wales and England just in time for the weekend so it may well be a dry, fine one. Not especially warm, maxima around 16c probably, and still a ground frost chance by night, but a pleasant enough weekend given what the weather models are predicting at the moment.
    [attachment=133894:Rtavn1321 drying up fri.png] [attachment=133895:Rukm1441 drying out Fri.gif] [attachment=133897:Rtavn1561 weekend high dry.png]
  14. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3]
    [b]Headline: Cool with rain at times, drier after mid week and milder next weekend[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Mild and mostly dry until Thursday last week, then a rain front swept east introducing the cooler air mass we have been in since with showers about, but generally only modest precipitation accumulations. Plenty of hail showers on Saturday, and some of the hills saw sleet or snow, while a few parts of the Midlands such as Redditch and Long Buckby appear to have had thunder. A cool and rather unsettled week to come, although overall rainfall quantities not high again, but some rain or showers at times the theme, tending to become drier from mid week and milder next weekend. March 2014 is set to end up mild overall though with rain totals around average.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    Further hail showers around on Sunday morning, they put down a covering of stones here first thing, and for Sunday afternoon a scattering of rain and hail showers, but these are now dying out across West Wales. Rather cool highs of 8 to 10c similar to Saturday and with a brisk NW breeze. A ridge arrives tonight, so winds drop off and skies clear this evening to give a widespread, and for the end of March, hard frost. Most inland places getting down to between -2 to -4c, and locally for the Midlands a -6c is possible, so the coldest night of 'Winter' here! By dawn on Monday the frost will be lifting over West Wales as a breeze picks up and it clouds over ahead of an advancing front. Rain into Pembrokeshire by around noon, this slowly edging NE across Wales afternoon, some quite heavy, so a cool, wet and windy afternoon over the Principality, highs just 7 or 8c, well below the late March average of 11c. In contrast dry and bright for much of Monday for the Midlands, temperatures up to 10c, the rain not reaching the East Midlands probably until after dark. The rain band then grinds to a halt over the East Midlands giving a wet night here, while by midnight Wales and much of the West Midlands has dried out. A frost for West Wales on Monday night down to -2c in places inland, and perhaps a ground frost for the West Midlands too by dawn if the cloud breaks. Two rain areas to contend with on Tuesday, the old Midlands front may edge back west to give a wet afternoon across much of the region, while another low is skirting SW Wales, so the threat of a wet spell here too at some stage. In between though Mid and NW Wales MAY escape with little and even see some sunny intervals during Tuesday and just the odd shower. Very cool on Tuesday for the dull damp Midlands and an easterly breeze, no better than 6 or 7c here, but any brightness for West Wales means 9c is possible in places. A decaying front across West Wales on Tuesday night with a little rain or drizzle in places may prevent another frost here, but a clearance expected for the Midlands means at least a grass frost down to around 0c. Another cool day with a NE wind on Wednesday, although over West Wales at least we should see some sunny intervals and 9 or 10c, while it is a cloudy and eventually damp afternoon for the Midlands no higher than 8c here. More significant rain may develop across the Midlands during Wednesday evening as a low feature moves in from off the North Sea, and even some rain may reach West Wales by midnight too, cold enough for sleet or snow above about 200m, but this not settling. At least the cloud should prevent a frost for most places on Wednesday night.

    High pressure over Scandinavia trying to exert its influence to the UK by Thursday so hopes for drier conditions. However there may well be plenty of cloud still and some further light showers especially for the south of our regions. Cool again, temperatures only managing 8 to 10c at best. A few lucky places seeing sunny intervals on Thursday but generally a lot of cloud with some of us seeing showers, a gentle east breeze. There may be a ground frost in places dawn Friday, then a lot of cloud and a chilly east wind again, SW Wales favoured best for any sunny spells and 11c here should these develop, but elsewhere around 7 to 9c only, and a few drizzly showers possible over the Midlands in particular.

    Next weekend we are between high pressure to our north and a low over Iberia. Hope then of something milder as winds shift more to the SE off a fairly warm Continent, although tempered by a stiff breeze. Perhaps still a lot of cloud on Saturday wirh showery rain in places, but a better chance of seeing the sun on Sunday and temperatures responding up to a respectable 14c in places. Frost risk low by next weekend. It looks like turning cool and unsettled though once more as we get into April.

    [/size][/font]
  15. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b][font=arial]Headline: Unsettled, rain or showers at times (especially Monday); near average temperatures but some cool weather still[/font][/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][font=arial]A notable and unusually cool spell of weather over the past week or so, 'Autumnal' being a most apt adjective. [/font]Here at Llanwnnen the highest reading since a week Saturday a poor 17.2c (Sunday 17th), while the average maxima since Wednesday 13th August (12 days) is just 16.4c and unprecedented here for August in my albeit short record (11 years), with no day getting above 18c. Three successive days failed to reach 16c at Llanwnnen - again an almost unprecedented occurrence at this time of year, poor Capel Curig never getting higher than 16c all week! The week started not as cool though for the Midlands in particular, close on 20c recorded on Monday at Church Lawford on Monday, thereafter all downhill! Coventry has not been above 17c since last Monday.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Some of the more notable cool maximum temperatures of last week: Aberporth 14.4c and Llanwnnen 15.2c on Tuesday, Sennybridge (Powys) 13.8c, Capel Curig (Snowdonia) 14.0c, Little Rissington (Cotswolds) 15.2c and Llanwnnen 15.2c all Wednesday then the lowest just 13.3c (56f) the 'high' on Thursday at Capel Curig. Nights were chilly too, especially from mid week, some of the lowest readings being: Sennybridge 3.6c on Tuesday night; Llanwnnen 2.6c (with an unseasonable touch of grass frost), Hereford 3.4c, Pembrey Sands 4.2c, Little Rissington 5.3c all on Wednesday night; Pembrey Sands 3.6c Friday night; then last night Capel Curig 3.7c, Sennybridge 3.8c, Pershore 3.9c (with a ground frost) Mona & Pembrey Sands 4.3c. This prolonged very cool spell means August will end up a cool month in spite of the warm start.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]At least the showers were well scattered and mostly quite light, most places getting at least a dry day or two last week, and rain totals for most were low, indeed some spots escaped with a virtually dry week. Coventry only having 1.0mm, Coleshill 1.0mm, Pembrey Sands 2.4mm, while Trawsgoed in contrast caught quite a few showers obtaining 30.8mm over the past week.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Sunday and it has clouded over across much of Wales but the Midlands has had a bright morning. A dry but increasingly cloudy afternoon for most, bar the odd isolated shower, but with rain gradually spreading into Pembrokeshire during this afternoon and the rest of West Wales (WW) early this evening. Another cool day, no higher than 17c for many but 19c for brighter parts of the East Midlands, so not feeling too bad here. Moderate winds for the most part on Sunday, but a freshening southerly for Wales this evening along with the rain. Rain and drizzle at times for all regions tonight, a milder one though. The deep low bringing this rain is situated close to SW Ireland on Monday with its rain fronts ahead of it, so a wet day for many especially in the south of our regions where over 25mm is possible in places, even 50mm for a few spots, perhaps in the Cotswolds, which may cause flooding. Quite windy too on Monday and very cool with all the cloud and rain, highs no better than 18c, and even 15c for wetter spots of the Midlands. Further showers or longer spells of rain for Monday night as the low crosses southern England. Still a trough left over the SE on Tuesday so another unsettled day, rain or showers knocking about, more specially for the Midlands, probably mostly dry with some sunny intervals later for WW. Temperatures closer to the late August average at 18 to 20c. A weak high east of Scotland tries to dry things out on Wednesday, sunny spells and mainly dry for a time,but the next front may be bringing some further showery rain into much of Wales and the SW Midlands through the afternoon, that it clouds over means rather disappointing temperatures 18c for WW and but perhaps 21c for the East Midlands with brightness. LIght to moderate SE breezes on Wednesday.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][font=arial]A shallow low or trough seems likely to be crossing over us Thursday so another rather unsettled day threatens some further rain or showers in places. Rather cool 18c for WW and a more respectable 20c for the Midlands on Thursday afternoon. [/font]Friday and Saturday see a continuation of the unsettled weather so more rain or showers at times, some places getting more than others, there should be some sunny intervals too during which it will not feel too bad. The models were showing some promise of drier and warmer conditions next weekend, however this signal now seems to be faltering, so even Sunday may be seeing showers or longer spells of rain knocking about too? [/font][/color]
  16. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Wet start , turning cold later, snow possible next weekend[/b]

    An exceptionally wet week with flooding in many areas. Warwickshire having an inch of rain on Wednesday flooding the Avon and other rivers, while it was west Wales turn for floods on Thursday, Llanwnnen getting 30mm. Another deluge in the past 24 hours, Coventry has just had it wettest November day in the 120 year record, and Llanwnnen and most of west Wales picked up another inch! Total rain fall figures for the past 7 days:

    Llanwnnen 93mm
    Coventry 88mm
    Rugby 66mm




    At least it was fairly mild! Turning colder in the coming week, more rain at times to Tuesday, then drier, but the threat that things turn wintry by the weekend. Frosts becoming a major feature from mid week onwards.

    A respite for a time today before the next low pressure arrives from the SW, hard on the heels of the one responsible for all the flooding this weekend. A scattering of showers already into west Wales with further prolonged rain arriving later this afternoon. The rain should hold off until this evening for the Midlands where it is currently nice and sunny. This latest low crosses Wales then England during Monday bringing further spells of rain or showers at times, some of this again heavy, and exacerbating the flooding. After light winds on Monday morning, there will be a strengthening northerly for west Wales in the afternoon and the Midlands by evening, making it feel quite cold.
    [attachment=145815:PPVA89 culprit.png][attachment=145816:PPVG89 Mon L.png]

    The low gradually edges away into the Continent on Tuesday but still with a legacy of wrap around rain or showers in places, although some areas will appreciate a somewhat drier day. Quite a cold fresh NE wind in its wake and maxima of just 6 or 7c. Enough breeze on Tuesday night to prevent more than a touch of ground frost in places. With the low well away by Wednesday, this should be a mainly dry day, bar the odd shower here and there. The sun should also make a welcome appearance, although feeling chilly in a fresh NE breeze. Winds will drop off on Wednesday night as a ridge of high pressure edges in from the west, so a cold and frosty night, as low as -3c in places, especially Llanwnnen!
    [attachment=145817:ecmt850.048 unsettled chilly Tue.png][attachment=145818:PPVL89 L well away dry cold Wed.png]

    Increasing uncertainty with the details for the latter part of the week, the one consensus being that it turns decidedly cold with frosty nights. Things are complicated as we are subject to various influences, with low pressure still close by over the Continent but high pressure trying to build to our north. The effect of this build of pressure to our north being to halt the progress of Atlantic lows and therefore keeping any milder conditions well away to our west.

    On Thursday then a frosty start looks likely, then a trough of sorts moves down from the north or NW bringing some showers during the day in places, these perhaps wintry over high ground. This trough looks like introducing the cold air proper that then lasts over the weekend. Maxima of 4 to 6c on Thursday with a frosty night to follow, and any showers could well fall as snow over the hills. With low pressure close by to the east, and the possibility that further disturbances (complications) will track south in the generally northerly flow, Friday and the weekend is looking cold with the threat of wintry showers or even longer spells of rain, sleet or snow. Temperatures are certainly suggesting a strong possibility of snow, and for the hills of Wales and the Cotswolds the charts make a snow cover likely by the weekend, this perhaps also coming down to low levels at times too. However, we are usually very marginal for snow in the UK, and the presence of little lows coming down within the north flow means some less cold air would be entrained into these- hence the prediction of rain, sleet or snow. At least a chance then that some of us will be very cold with snow cover this time next week, GFS having highs of just 1 to 3c next Sunday with precipitation knocking about too!
    [attachment=145819:ecmt850.096 colder Thu.png][attachment=145820:h850t850eu cold R Thu dry frost.png][attachment=145821:met.96 m dry Thu r cold.png][attachment=145822:ecmt850.168 cold frosty perhaps wintry showers weekend.png][attachment=145823:ukmaxtemp v cold weekend.png]

    Whether we are in for a short cold snap or a more prolonged spell of Winter lasting well into December is not yet certain, although it looks like turning milder at least for a while during the following week.
  17. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Unsettled again; drier early week, rain and showers later. Warm and humid blip mid week.[/b]

    April to June 2012 has already been the wettest ever for this three month period (records back to 1766) for England and Wales overall. June itself may fall a little short of being the wettest ever, although it is up there with the wettest June's for many places. Llanwnnen is currently on 198mm (8 inches), while Coventry has had 128mm so far.

    In spite of a mainly dry, bright start to last week, the rains returned from Wednesday night, although with not quite as much as in recent excessively wet weeks. There has been an unfortunate lack of light and sunshine for this, the period of greatest day length, along with consistently cool temperatures, giving more of an Autumnal feel. Fields are permanently waterlogged, and rivers in spate as though it were Winter!

    Perhaps a slight improvement in the weather again this week, better temperatures, even with a touch of warmth for a short while in the middle of the week, and a drying out process to mid week too, but the rain and showers are set to return, as low pressure is never far away from the British Isles, what with the Jet Stream continuing to be displaced to these low latitudes. Yet again, a week with the true arrival of Summer delayed. Chance of a thunderstorm in parts (most likely for the Midlands) during Thursday as the upcoming warm blip gives way.

    Sunday afternoon is turning out mostly dry and bright with just a few showers dotted about. Monday too should be a generally dry and bright day and with light winds, temperatures close to average at 19-21c. During this first half of the week high pressure over France attempts to take control, but is not strong enough to prevent fronts moving across England and Wales that are connected to a low sat out on the Atlantic, well west of Ireland. The first of these weakish fronts brings more cloud for Tuesday and even a little rain and drizzle for Wales, but it should remain dry for the Midlands, and feeling quite warm again here. The next and warm front moves up on Tuesday night which introduces some warm, humid Tropical southerly air to Wales and England for the mid week period. After a warm sticky night, and some further rain for Wales for a while into early Wednesday, the day then brightens up with warm, sunny spells for many of us. Most parts then become dry with some sunshine Wednesday afternoon and just the chance of a few thundery showers about by the evening. Temperatures reaching 22 to 24c.
    [attachment=135779:Rtavn601 H France L Atl Tue.png][attachment=135778:brack2 weak fronts warmer air Wed.gif][attachment=135780:brack2a warm humid Wed.gif][attachment=135781:Recm722 H France L Atl warm air arrives Wed.gif]

    The low west of Ireland then pushes towards us during Thursday as the Continental high gives way, and with even warmer upper atmospheric air ahead of this, there is the potential for some heavy downpours and thunderstorms in places during Thursday. Probably too much cloud and general rain about for west Wales to appreciate the warm upper air temperatures, but the Midlands should see some sunny intervals and maxima as high as 25c perhaps, this warmth in turn triggering heavy downpours and thunderstorms for the latter part of the day. Perhaps no warmer than 22c though for cloudier west Wales. So a fair chance of a thunderstorm for the MIdlands by Thursday evening for those of us who appreciate such displays of nature. Meanwhile the real heat is over the south of France where 100F (38c) looks likely next Thursday!
    [attachment=135782:brack4 turning thundery or wet Thur.gif][attachment=135783:Recm962 warm humid thundery potential Thu.gif][attachment=135784:Rtavn1022 thundery thu poss.png][attachment=135785:Rtavn1084 rain poss storms Thu pm.png][attachment=135786:Rtavn10817 100f S France.png]

    The low is over northern Britain on Friday, so the winds have turned south-west with cooler Atlantic air once more, a day of sunny spells and showers. Temperatures down to near normal at around 19 or 20c with quite strong winds. As we reach July, next Sunday, unfortunately still no sign of Summer proper, with a rather cool and showery air-stream over the UK for next weekend.
    [attachment=135787:Rtavn1262 fresher showery Fri.png][attachment=135788:Recm1442 cooler showery weekend.gif][attachment=135789:Rtavn1741 unsettled cool showery weekend.png]
  18. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Mainly dry, rather cloudy, some frost and fog; near average temperatures[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Rather a cold week gone with some frosty nights, especially here in Wales where Friday night saw a severe frost down to -7.3c (colder than any official UK station), and -5.5c at Tirabad, Powys. Frosts lighter for the Midlands and most of coastal Wales. Showery early in the week, a mix of hail, sleet, thunder and even snow in places, mainly but not exclusively for higher ground as Swansea, for example, caught some snow in the showers during Tuesday. With sunny spells it did not feel too bad and some days reached 9 or 10c for parts of West Wales, which is near average for late November. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Plenty of dry, quiet weather in the coming week as high pressure sticks close to southern Ireland through to Thursday, before it turns breezy but still mostly dry. Variable cloud, so sunshine the most difficult aspect to predict, and there will be further frost and fog at times, more especially early in the week. Another frosty start for many on Sunday, although parts of the Midlands too cloudy for this, and most coastal areas, as is typical in Autumn/ early Winter, have escaped. Some sunny intervals about on Sunday afternoon, but perhaps a lot of cloud especially over the Midlands. Highs on Sunday 7 to 9c. Cloud tending to break tonight with a widespread generally slight frost, although parts of inland Wales down to -4c. Fog may form in places but probably not so widespread this. Similar on Monday, plenty of cloud but with sunny intervals and a touch colder highs of 6 to 8c. West Wales could fare best for sunshine on Monday. Frost and fog forming where cloud breaks permit on Monday night but this a bit of a lottery, although again inland Wales 'favoured' for a frosty night. Again, cloud cover difficult to say for Tuesday, some areas lucky with decent sunny spells, others remaining largely overcast, temperatures once more below average at 6 to 8c maxima. Very little wind throughout this early to middle period of the week. Should anywhere see fog this may be slow to clear and so temperatures would then struggle to top 4 or 5c.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Subtle changes by Wednesday with milder and more generally cloudier skies working around the high from off the Atlantic. Less chance of brightness developing then on Wednesday and West Wales coasts and hills may see a spit of drizzle. Milder highs of between 8 and 10c, 11c possible for Pembrokeshire. Although some clear intervals may develop on Wednesday night, a fairly extensive cloud cover is likely so frost more restricted and localised, nowhere getting below zero, so a grass frost at worst. Thursday and another rather cloudy but fairly mild day, brighter intervals in places, highs 9 to 11c. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]High pressure then slips away SW on Friday as lows track to our north into Scandinavia. The main effect from this pressure pattern change is to tighten the isobars so that with a NW breeze no frost or fog expected for Thursday night, temperatures should remain above 3c. Most of the rain associated with the Scandinavian low is expected to pass to our NE so still an essentially dry picture to end the week. Just the chance the fronts turn out more lively with a spell of light rain later Friday into Saturday? Friday then is breezy but generally dry with some sunny intervals and near average temperatures. Next weekend high pressure still close enough to the SW for plenty of dry weather, although weak fronts could produce a little rain in places. A brisk NW flow so not mild but not much in the way of frost either. Sunshine still likely to be at a premium next weekend with a moist Atlantic air stream. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=194785:PPVJ89 dry calm early week local frost and fog.png][attachment=194786:viewimage calm r cold local fog and frost early week.png][attachment=194788:PPVL89 more cloud milder Wed.png][attachment=194789:ecmt850.096 milder We Th still dry.png][attachment=194790:metslp.120 dry r mild Th.png][attachment=194791:ecmt850.144 breezy m dry Fr.png][attachment=194792:viewimage HSW LNE breezy m dry wend.png][attachment=194793:ecmt850.168 m dry ave temps wend.png][attachment=194794:prcpSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire mostly dry week.png][attachment=194795:prmslWarwickshire H much of week m dry.png][attachment=194796:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
  19. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Dry, very warm and sunny!![/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Another largely dry week has passed, a mere 2mm falling at Rugby and Coventry, and just 5mm here, and we are at last entering a prolonged warm/ hot and sunny spell during 'High Summer', the first time since 2006! A few fly in the ointments as always (it's rarely the case that the whole UK is blessed with warm and sunny conditions at the same time!), as low cloud and mist affected parts of Wales on Saturday, at least during the morning, and with an onshore breeze crossing chilly waters(14c), places such as Aberporth and Aberdaron only managed a high of 16c, while the sunny Midlands was getting readings close to 80f (26c) With high pressure remaining over or close to the UK throughout the coming week and even next weekend it looks like a dry, very warm (hot sometimes even) and sunny week! Almost unbroken sunshine in places over the coming 7 days with temperatures well into the 20's, no doubt we will start to hear complaints that "it's too hot"! The coasts are the place to be this week. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]With a large slow moving high pressure over or close by the UK all week my job has been made a lot easier in producing this guide, that is similar weather for the whole week, and few if any of the difficulties of predicting when and where rain will occurr! The only real uncertainty will be "how warm will it get each day?" High pressure today is centred over Ireland, and as we can see/feel the heat is building on Sunday morning, even for West Wales, where incidentally it was a lovely cool night down to 5c in this spot. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Recent 11am temperatures:[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Our back garden, Llanwnnen: 23c[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Milford Haven, Pembs: 22c[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Rugby, Warwickshire: 24c[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Birmingham: 24c[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A sunny and very warm afternoon ahead for most, although again with the odd fly in the ointment. The first 80f readings for the Midlands of Summer to look forward to, maxima 27 or 28c here, while inland West Wales manages 25c. Coasts complicated by the fact that low cloud/ sea mist will affect some beaches from time to time, and where this happens highs kept below 20c, there will also be refereshing sea breezes along the Welsh coasts, although Carmarthenshire, Gower and south Pembrokeshire coasts should be warm and sunny with less chance of mist spoiling things, up to 23c locally - at Pembrey for example. A largely clear night to follow, a comfortable 10c for the countryside but a sticky 14c for cities and coastal SW Wales. An absolutely cracking sunny and very warm day on Monday, high pressure drifting across northern Britain, and with a gentle easterly flow, even coastal West Wales seeing the heat and virtually unbroken sunshine. Hotter than Sunday for West Wales we may touch 80f (27c), and 25 to 27c for the Midlands too. Clear skies on Monday night and it should be refreshingly cool for all, temperatures down to 8 to 12c. Rinse and repeat on Tuesday, high pressure meandering around western Britain, more virtually unbroken sunshine and warmth, highs generally 24 to 27c, and again refreshing sea breezes for coasts where 21c will be nearer the mark.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Wednesday to Friday sees little change as high pressure remains over or close to NW UK, more sunny and warm weather, the only debate being just how warm? GFS model is suggesting a breeze off the North Sea which would cool things down for the Midlands at least, low 20's maxima if so; ECM on the other hand positions the high such that things are still likely to be pushing 80f for the remainder of the week! Suffice to say, plenty of strong warm sunshine to see out the working week, highs somewhere in the 20's C (70's to perhaps low 80's F), it is not likely however, that the 30c (true heat) barrier will be breached in the coming week apart from in the London area. It may not feel it after the long sunny days, but nights cooling off nicely, we are not likely to be suffering warm, humid nights above 16c (60f), more likely getting down to 8 to 10c in rural areas and 12 to 14c for cities and coasts. A few places may catch an isolated shower on Wednesday or Thursday but the vast majority will miss these, so barely warrants a mention.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]And even into next weekend high pressure is close enough to keep things generally dry and warm, Saturday perhaps a hot one! We may be starting to see the weather breaking down with some rain or showers by Sunday, but this is as they say "a long way off" and the reality could be the warmth and sunshine decides to hold sway even into the week that follows?[/size][/font]
    [attachment=176960:PPVE89 H Scot sunny very warm or hot.png][attachment=176962:h850t850eu sunny quite hot.png][attachment=176961:PPVJ89 H Ire v warm sunny.png][attachment=176964:ecmt850.072 v warm sunny mid week.png][attachment=176966:h850t850eu warm sunny perhaps less warm.png][attachment=176963:PPVO89 continues v warm sunny.png][attachment=176965:metslp.120 on and on Fri.png][attachment=176967:ecmt850.168 warm sunny next weekend.png][attachment=176968:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=176969:mgram_Cardiff.png][attachment=176970:prcpWarwickshire m dry week ahead.png][attachment=176971:t2mSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire warm week WW.png]
  20. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Mild, breezy and unsettled; rain or showers at times, especially during Wednesday/ Thursday[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Although we were under a very warm air mass for late September early last week, the warmth was not realised in some areas due to persistent low cloud and even mist, this especially spoiling things for parts of the Midlands and SW Wales. Mumbles, Swansea failed to get above 17c on either Monday or Tuesday. For Cardigan Bay and Snowdonia it was glorious early in the week, on Monday Trawsgoed was the warmest place in the UK reaching 25c and it managed 23.6c here near Lampeter. Warmth returned on Friday and Saturday where many places reached 19 to 21c. The highest reading of the week at Coventry was 19.9c on Wednesday so nothing remarkable warmth-wise for the Midlands last week. Some very mild nights too, no lower than 15c on Sunday night here and 14c on Monday night at Coventry (the average late September night would record 8c) Very little rain about last week, less than a millimetre here and no measurable rain at Coventry, we missed the thunderstorms that affected SW England on Saturday. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Sunday we are still in this warm drag of air from the SE off the Continent, and with a weakening front strung out across the south just the threat of some showery rain in places this afternoon, for most no more than a light shower or two, while many places remain dry again. Sunny intervals for Sunday afternoon and feeling pleasant with highs close to 20c. Through the first half of this week are between the influences of a large, slow moving low to the SW of Ireland and a high over Scandinavia, this set up dragging up relatively warm air from the south. Of course, as we are in October from Tuesday, a 'warm' day is anything above 18c as the averages rapidly taper off through Autumn and will soon be referred to as 'mild' instead! The low sends further fronts our way from the SW, again these tending to weaken over us. Another rather cloudy, quite warm day then for Monday, some areas fortunate to get pleasant sunny breaks, while others stay largely cloudy. No great amounts of rain being modelled for Monday, more a case of patchy, light showers occurring and with some areas staying completely dry. Highs on Monday are sun dependent, varying from just 16c where dull and damp, to a warm 20c where decent sunny intervals occur. More of the same on Tuesday, rather large amounts of cloud, bits and pieces of rain about, with a more definite chance that West Wales gets a proper soaking rather than a mere splash on Tuesday, while parts of the Midlands just about escaping with another generally dry and mild day. Temperatures reaching 16c where wettest and 19c where it stays dry. Tuesday night one of the milder nights of the coming week as we are in a warm sector, some areas no lower than 14c.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Wednesday, and the low is closer to western Ireland, so Wales certainly at risk of some wet weather at times, but lighter, patchier rain and drizzle for the Midlands. Very mild southerlies for Wednesday, temperatures between 18 and 20c, and even 21c is possible if it brightens over the Midlands, quite impressive levels now we are into October! A strengthening southerly wind through the day, especially for the Irish Sea where gale force gusts are likely. Further rain in places overnight Wednesday, this heavy at times for Wales, and a very mild, muggy night, minima between 13 and 15c. Thursday could be the wettest day of the week - low pressure by now centred NW of Ireland with a slow moving front strung out across western UK or Ireland, so at last even the Midlands should expect a soaking. Mild, but with a fresh south to SW wind, maxima between 16 and 18c, so feeling cooler with the wind and rain. The rain could still be going strong well into Thursday night, some places getting an inch in total on this day. By Friday the low is to the north of Scotland, still close enough to produce some further rain or showers, but less intense than on Thursday and with dry, brighter spells between. Cooler for Friday, especially West Wales, no higher than 15c here, while 17 or 18c in places for the Midlands, then with a cooler, fresher night to follow, minima below 10c for the first time this week. Winds will have substantially moderated by the end of the week. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The promise of a ridge of high pressure arriving in time for Saturday, which looks mainly dry if a touch cool, maxima down to 14 or 15c, and a little below the early October average. The fine weather could hang on into Sunday too, the Midlands may get away with a dry and bright Sunday too, however the next Atlantic low is heading for Ireland and so we may well see rain eventually for West Wales. [/size][/font]
    [attachment=186831:PPVG89 weakening fronts shower thret Mon.png][attachment=186832:ecmt850.048 r warm chance of shower Mon.png][attachment=186833:PPVJ89 rain esp WW Tue.png][attachment=186834:PPVM89 vm rain times windy in west Wed.png][attachment=186835:h850t850eu v mild rain times Wed.png][attachment=186836:metslp.96 wet windy west drier east Wed.png][attachment=186837:ecmt850.144 cooler unsettled FRi.png][attachment=186838:ecmslp.168 drier weekend rain threat Wales.png][attachment=186839:prcpSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion wet WW Wed Thu.png][attachment=186840:t850West~Midlands mild to Fri.png][attachment=186841:mgram_Birmingham.png]
  21. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Mild, dry to start, then unsettled with rain at times[/b]

    A prolonged late Winter dry spell has been welcomed after the preceding deluge since last April! 17 consecutive dry days at Llanwnnen and counting, while the dry run at Coventry was broken by a measly 0.2mm fall on Friday. Overall February was rather dry for West Wales and average to rather wet for the Midlands. February being the driest month of the year in some areas, so although the 44mm that fell on Rugby during February seems a low figure it is actually slightly above average, Coventry was more definitely wet having 58mm ([url="http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/"]http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/[/url])

    The dry weather lasts a few more days, we get much milder conditions in the coming week, but from mid week we see a return of the rain. A hard early March frost in places last night, here in my frost prone spot, -7.3c was recorded this morning, not unusual for March, but lower than any of the official UK weather stations today. High pressure that has dominated our weather for almost 3 weeks, slips away east during Monday, but still projects a ridge across the UK. So after another frosty start, Monday continues the dry spell, variable cloud with sunny intervals, highs of 8 or 9c again. Probably the last frost of the week on Monday night, and only a slight one at that, lows around -1c. On Tuesday we are between high pressure well to the east and low pressure edging up from the SW, with a mild SE airstream having originated over North Africa affecting the British Isles. Most places staying dry with sunny intervals through Tuesday, although clouding over later for West Wales with the odd spot of rain by evening. Maxima of 12 or 13c, the mildest we have seen so far this young year.
    [attachment=162839:PPVG89 H recedes dry bright Mon.png][attachment=162840:PPVK89 rain west late Tue.png]

    The low centred to the SW of Ireland continues to pump up mild SE to southerly winds throughout Wednesday and Thursday, more widespread outbreaks of rain or showers tracking north, with some heavy bursts of rain at times, so the Midlands also joins in with a wetter theme! Indeed West Wales could be in for a real soaking as a succession of rain fronts pass over later Wednesday and Thursday. Brief sunny intervals possible between the showery outbreaks, feeling mild in these, highs of 10 to 12c, but with a moderate to fresh breeze. Nights also much milder from mid week, so that by Wednesday night most places remain above 7c (time to reduce the Central Heating?). The low pressure keeps spinning around to the west or SW of Ireland even to the end of the week, with further rain or heavy showers about on Friday, perhaps some warm sunny intervals between, highs around 14c in places, more especially SW Wales, well above the early March average of 8 or 9c. On the other hand, any rain areas that do develop on Friday could well be slow moving, and where it stays wet highs nearer 10c.
    [attachment=162841:ecmt850.072 mild unsettled SE Wed.png][attachment=162842:PPVO89 mild very unsettled Thu.png][attachment=162846:metslp.96 mild unsettled Wed THu.png][attachment=162843:ecmt850.120 mild v unsettled Fri.png]

    Next weekend and some very cold air will be getting into Scotland from the NE, bringing snow in places up there, however Wales and the Midlands should still be in the milder air circulating the low close to our SW. Further rain and showers over the weekend, frosts unlikely, and with highs between 9 and 12c. A chance that the colder air makes it on Sunday but this should hold off until a late taste of Winter for the week that follows, even with snow showers in places, this cold snap strongly suggested by recent model output.
    [attachment=162844:ecmt850.168 unsettled cooler by Sun.png][attachment=162845:h850t850eu unsettled cooler weekend.png][attachment=162847:t850Caerdydd~-~Cardiff cold snap following week.png]
  22. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Fairly dry and bright, cool at first then quite warm from mid week[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Some dry, bright and warm weather early last week, 25c at Rugby on Wednesday, their warmest day of the year to date. Then some rain and showers about, with thundery showers over Birmingham and Wolverhampton on Thursday evening. However, overall quite small amounts of rain during the past week, just 5mm having fallen at Llanwnnen and 10mm at Coventry. Much cooler and windy this weekend but things set to improve once more, and another reasonably dry week to come - June is turning out fairly dry if on the cool side.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Sunday afternoon continues chilly with plenty of cloud and occasional, mostly light showers, with some areas again escaping these, lucky to better 60f (16c) anywhere, very cool. The blustery NW wind moderates overnight as the low currently over Scotland moves into the North Sea, becoming dry with clear spells, minima 7 to 9c. Monday looks a mainly dry day with a ridge moving into the west, a few showers are possible more especially over the Midlands but most places missng them. Sunny intervals on Monday, but a cool NW breeze and highs only 15 to 17c. Clear periods and a chilly Monday night, lows of 5c in places inland. High pressure builds more decisively from the SW during Tuesday although perhaps not enough to prevent a scattering of showers to develop, as there will be cool upper atmosphere pool encouraging them, again though many places will miss these showers altogether. Quite cool in spite of sunny spells maxima 17 to 19c, and with another chilly clear night to follow, a local grass frost not out of the question, as air temperatures get down to 4c in favoured cold hollows. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]High pressure close to Ireland on Wednesday and the upper atmosphere is starting to warm up, so dry and largely sunny on Wednesday, temperatures reaching the late June average of 19 to 21c, a very pleasant day as winds will be light, although cooler for Cardigan Bay coasts with an onshore breeze. Thursday too is influenced by high pressure close to our SW, so generally dry again with sunny spells, however weak fronts coming around the top of the high off the Atlantic could bring more in the way of cloud and perhaps a little rain for a time, more especially for North Wales and the Midlands. Rather warm where there is decent sunshine up to about 21c, but cool where damp, just 16c for Snowdonia perhaps. Much milder on Thursday night no lower than 12c. High pressure leaks away SW somewhat during Friday, the high perhaps not quite close enough to keep it completely dry with more cloud. We could well be within a sector of warm, humid but inherently moist air on Friday, so always more likely to stay cloudy along western coasts, even with a little drizzle in places, however inland, and more especially for the Midlands, warm and sultry sunny spells with temperatures as high as 23c, and this could set off a few sharp afternoon showers here. A mild and somewhat sticky night follows no lower than 13c. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Next weekend, and we still have the same area of high pressure to the SW of Ireland, with a mild, moist and rather humid Atlantic west to NW airstream flowing about it across the UK. Western coasts always more prone to low cloud, sea mist and a little drizzle at times disappointingly, whereas inland, and especially the Midlands seeing some warm sunny breaks, although even here it may well cloud over at times. Mild nights next weekend, and by day maxima only 17c for stretches of coast that remain misty and damp, 21c for inland West Wales where it should brighten at times, then up to 25c locally for the Midlands where some decent sunny spells should break through. So not a bad weekend, and no washout for events taking place such as Glastonbury![/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=175613:PPVG89 cool m dry mon R.png][attachment=175614:PPVJ89 R but few showers Tue.png][attachment=175615:ecmt850.072 Tue m dry r cool.png][attachment=175618:ukmintemp very local GF Wed am.png][/size][/font][attachment=175636:h850t850eu pleasant dry sunny ave Wed.png][font=arial][size=3][attachment=175617:PPVL89 nice Wed warmer.png][attachment=175619:ecmt850.120 m dry THu.png][attachment=175620:PPVO89 Thu m dry but wk front.png][attachment=175621:metslp.120 H slips SW m dry r warm.png][attachment=175622:ecmt850.144 WS FRi cloudier warm.png][attachment=175628:ecmt850.168 wend m dry warm eso inland.png][attachment=175631:h850t850eu weekend H close by humid westerly.png][attachment=175632:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=175633:mgram_Cardiff.png][/size][/font]
  23. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Showery at first; mostly dry and sometimes warm from Wednesday[/b]

    Only small amounts of rain early last week but then Wednesday was a washout for many places. Llanwwnen getting 24mm and Church Lawford 22mm in 24 hours, while some parts saw closer to 2 inches (50mm). Wednesday also a very cool day, parts of Wales remained below 10c all day, quite unusual this for June, the high here being 11.7c when it brightened during the evening, still the coolest June day for a number of years. Things brightened considerably on Thursday, and warmed up on Friday, 22.7c the max here at Llanwnnen and even 21.8c on the coast at Aberporth, similarly warm for the Midlands too. Thunderstorms were fairly widespread early Saturday morning, particularly for Mid Wales and the West Midlands with heavy downpours too. Lightning as close as a mile with loud thunder here just before 0600. There a few further storms later on Saturday, especially over the West Midlands. Friday night was the warmest of the nascent Summer to date getting no lower than 13c here.

    Quite a fine, reasonably Summery week in prospect, plenty of dry and at times bright weather and often fairly warm too, after that is, some rain or showers still until Tuesday. Sunday is a fairly dry and quite warm but breezy day, the Midlands getting into the low 70's F ( 21c or 22c) and close on 20c for inland West Wales (WW). A few sharp showers about, especially for Wales, but essentially dry over the Midlands this afternoon. Largely dry tonight too bar the odd Welsh shower. Perhaps more in the way of showers on Monday with the chance of thunder especially around midday, tending to become drier with sunny spells through later in the afternoon. Quite warm again, highs around 19c for WW and 22c for the East Midlands. Low pressure to our west then edges closer to Ireland during Monday night so further showers and longer spells of rain arrive in the early hours of Tuesday. Unsettled on Tuesday with the low crossing NW UK, showery, some heavy and thundery downpours about, highs down at 16 to 19c with a brisk SW wind. The SE Midlands (Northants/ Oxon) perhaps faring better on Tuesday with only a few showers, by virtue of being closer to high pressure over France.

    High pressure then builds over southern Britain on Wednesday, so a dry, fine day with lighter winds. Not necessarily a sunny day though as there could well be stubborn layers of cloud much of the afternoon and just sunny intervals from time to time. Temperatures close to the June average at 19 to 21c, cooler on the coast though with the onshore breezes. A ridge of high pressure persists across SE UK on Thursday but with some weak Atlantic fronts affecting northern and western parts. Dry with some sunny spells for most places, especially the Midlands where it will reach a warm 22 or 23c, but there may be more in the way of cloud for WW afternoon even with a little rain or drizzle for hills and coasts. 18c on WW coasts, 20c inland WW the expected highs on Thursday. High pressure pulls more to the SW of Ireland on Friday, allowing a cooler NW feed of air. Still a largely dry and quite warm day though for the Midlands with sunny spells and maxima around 21c, although we may feel the effects of the NW breeze over WW restricting highs to below 18c here and bringing cloudier skies. The outside chance of a light shower for few places otherwise dry on Friday.

    Most models keep relatively high pressure over the UK next weekend too, although with differences relating to intensity, positioning, etc. Suffice to say a lot of dry weather still and temperatures look close to average.with maxima say in the 18 to 22c range, we may be seeing something of a NE breeze however, which would tend to render the East Midlands coolest and WW warmest.
    [attachment=215638:PPVG89 (1) showery r warm Mo.png][attachment=215639:ecmt850.048 some showers Mo.png][attachment=215641:ecmt850.072 showers lsr cooler r windy Tu.png][attachment=215641:ecmt850.072 showers lsr cooler r windy Tu.png][attachment=215642:PPVL89 dry r warm Wed.png][attachment=215643:ecmt850.096 dry rw We.png][attachment=215644:PPVO89 m dry warm Th dr poss WW pm.png][attachment=215645:ecmt850.120 fine warm Th.png][attachment=215646:ecmt850.144 cooling m dry FR.png][attachment=215647:h850t850eu HSW cooler WW m dry Fr.png][attachment=215648:ecmt850.168 m dry weekend.png][attachment=215651:h850t850eu m dry weekend.png][attachment=215652:prcpWarwickshire m dry from WE.png][attachment=215653:mgram_Birmingham.png]
  24. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3]
    [b]Very disturbed with deep Atlantic lows bringing heavy rain and gales at times; variable temperatures but never especially cold[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A generally mild week gone, although the Midlands in particular saw some frost mid week, and on Wednesday the high was just 6c at Coventry due to an anticyclonic inversion which saw colder surface air trapped beneath mild upper air at cloud level. Then, some very mild air with most places remaining above 9c on Thursday night, Trawscoed and Pershore reaching 13c on Friday. A dry first half to last week but from Thursday it turned increasingly unsettled and windy at times, on Saturday gusts of 85mph at Capel Curig, 65mph at Pembrey and 51mph at Llanwnnen, Wales, being recorded. An inch of rain falling in the past week here near Lampeter while Coventry had just 5mm. The North Atlantic is seeing a very significant temperature contrast presently as really cold air leaving North America meets relatively warm Tropical air from the south, this collision of highly contrasting air masses spawning a succession of deep storm systems. A very disturbed week ahead as a series of deep depressions cross the Atlantic bringing heavy rain and strong to gale force winds to all parts at times, these could well cause damage. with Wednesday and Friday/ Saturday seeming the most likely occasions for these gales. A White Christmas is most unlikely this year (as usual!).[/size][/font][font=arial][size=3]


    The dry, bright start to Sunday has flattered to deceive as various weather fronts are set to bring cloud and some rain at times this afternoon and evening, although parts of the Midlands may escape with relatively little again. A fresh to strong SW wind on Sunday gusting to gale force for coasts and hills of Wales. Mild highs of around 12c. A pulse of heavier rain perhaps affecting the South Midlands this evening, but then only patchy light rain and drizzle during the night. Quite a windy night. Very mild too tonight, no lower than 10c for the Midlands, although should the cold front manage to clear through West Wales around dawn it could dip to 6c locally here. This cold front may linger across the Midlands during much of Monday, the central and southern areas of this region more likely to see rain at times through the day, most of it quite light. West Wales may see some showery rain first thing, but then a mainly dry Monday afternoon, bar the odd shower, and with sunny intervals. Highs between 9 and 11c on Monday - mildest for the East Midlands and Pembrokeshire. Most places becoming dry on Monday night with clear spells and a widespread ground frost, temperatures down close to zero, however the lingering front over SE England may decide to return rain to the SE Midlands beyond Coventry once more after midnight? The cold front should at long last have fizzled out over the SE by dawn leaving a dry, bright Tuesday but colder highs of 6 to 8c generally. Clearing skies on Tuesday evening soon leads to a frost as temperatures reach zero across the Midlands by midnight. Increasing wind and eventually cloud for West Wales through the evening lifts any frost and this process should have occurred for the Midlands too by dawn on Wednesday as the wind starts to pick up.

    During Wednesday an intense depression is set to track to the NW of Ireland, the central pressure could well be below 960mbar. Strong south to SW winds developing on Wednesday morning with the potential for widespread gales with gusts to storm force (above 60mph) through the afternoon in particular - so the main feature for Wednesday is the prospect of damaging winds. Patchy rain also to greet dawn on Wednesday for West Wales, this becoming heavier by afternoon and spreading across the Midlands eventually. For Wednesday evening a band of heavy and squally rain moves east across all parts, again with damaging gale force wind gusts associated with this feature, there could also be hail in places. Temperatures on Wednesday rather inconsequential but reaching 8 to 10c, so a fairly mild but very windy day. The main rain clears the East Midlands around midnight, it is then a windy night with squally showers affecting Wales in particular, hail likely in these. In spite of the wind, some quite cold air arrives and temperatures drop to 2 or 3c with a grass frost in places, and the showers over the Welsh hills could be turning wintry. The deep low has move towards Iceland by Thursday with quite a strong cold blustery SW to westerly flow over the UK. Plenty of showers for Wales on Thursday, these often heavy with hail, and some sleet or snow for high ground, although even lower down we could notice a few flakes. Showers spreading to the Midlands too through the course of the afternoon, these again bringing hail and sleet in places. Blustery winds on Thursday, highs of just 5 or 6c and feeling pretty cold in the wind. Some showers continuing even into Thursday night for West Wales but these should die out during the evening for the Midlands, clear spells and a slight frost down just below zero in places, with the wind dropping off too. The next deep low is south of Iceland on Friday but extends its frontal influence across the UK as we go through the day. Soon clouding over then on Friday morning with rain reaching most parts by afternoon, heavy in places, especially Wales. Friday is another day with a likelihood of gales developing, strong to gale force SW winds accompanying the rain on Friday afternoon and evening, the prospect of at least severe gale force gusts of above 50mph quite likely and with more wind damage expected. The rain totals for the week will be totting up too by the end of the week so we could be seeing flooding issues to by Friday into next weekend for some areas. It becomes very mild later on Friday and by evening temperatures will be at 10 to 12c as we will be in the warm sector of the depression.

    This very disturbed picture of volatile Atlantic depressions affecting the UK continues almost unabated next weekend and even through the Christmas period. Further very wet and windy weather then at times for the foreseeable future really, this bringing the unwanted attendant risks of flooding and wind damage over the Festive period. Both of the main weather models are showing a rather nasty looking low crossing southern Britain around Christmas Day in fact! Big swings of temperature in this outlook varying from very mild within warm sectors to quite cold as troughs pass to our east, but any wintriness almost certainly restricted to hills and even up there of very temporary nature. Chances of a White Christmas are then considered very slim! Much more likely is the prospect of a damaging storm system bringing severe gales and flooding along with notably low barometer readings at some stage over the Christmas period.
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  25. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Cool and unsettled, showers or longer spells of rain; drier brighter intervals between, some ground frosts.[/b]

    From Summer to Autumn it felt like last week, 23c here on Tuesday but then by Thursday it was max 11.8c. Strong winds with gales in places as well as rain on Thursday, it felt like a Winter's day in Carmarthenshire! Hail and thunder in places in the showers on Saturday. The coming week will be disappointing again for those hoping for a warm and dry spell, as the UK is sat under a cool lobe of upper atmospheric air which is most conducive to the formation of heavy showers and longer spells of rain. Some areas will see quite large totals of rain this week, a couple of inches falling in some areas.

    Sunday is a cloudy, damp day, all of us eventually getting light rain and drizzle on and off, cool too no higher than 12 or 13c. With a deep low spinning towards northern Scotland, cool west to NW winds affect us on Monday, a day of sunny intervals and showers, some of these heavy with hail and thunder in places. Incidentally, the hills of Scotland seeing snow showers on Monday, so Winter goes on up there! Highs only between 10 and 13c, poor for the middle of May when we should be seeing 15 or 16c. Doubtful that anywhere will miss the showers completely on Monday as they turn more widespread through the afternoon. A secondary wave low looks set to cross southern Britain on Tuesday bringing more general wet weather, some places having 6 hours or so of heavy rain at some stage during the day, more especially over Mid and South Wales and the Midlands this. Outside of the main rain zone there will be showers scattered about too, but with a little sunshine between. A very cool and rather windy day, highs below 10c if it remains wet, and only 12c where it brightens in the afternoon. A chilly night follows the rain or showers with a ground frost for many, lows between 1 and 4c inland, but milder and frost free for coasts.

    By Wednesday a complex of low pressure covers the whole of the UK, at least winds will be lighter, however the strong morning sunshine will only serve to provide energy for large Cumulonimbus clouds to develop by midday. Some very heavy and slow moving downpours scattered about on Wednesday afternoon then, hail and thunderstorms for some of us, although as always in showery set ups some places may escape completely with a dry even bright day, although hard to judge where these 'lucky' spots will be. At least feeling warmer (or at least less cool) in any sunny spells and the more gentle winds, maxima generally 12 to 14c. Most of the showers die out to clearing skies on Wednesday night, and the threat once more of a widespread ground frost, although I do not think that yesterday's GFS run is correct with it's prediction of -3c for the Welsh Marches, which would be a very damaging late season frost if it came true. Our low pressure is still close to the south through Thursday although somewhat filled up, so a better day in prospect, only light winds, fewer showers and decent sunny spells. Where showers do occur they will be heavy with thunder possible again. Warmer on Thursday highs ranging from 14 to 17c, close to average. Clearing skies with local ground frost for Thursday night, although perhaps more cloudy for the Midlands.

    On Friday a new low forms over the Continent pumping up heat to Eastern Europe, but the UK remains on the cool side of this system. Some heavy and thundery rain associated with this low possibly affecting the Midlands for a time on Friday, but more probable is a continuation of the showery theme to our weather. Pembrokeshire could be favoured to miss the worst of the showers on Friday. Maxima on Friday then a near normal 14 to 17c. Hints of a ridge for next Saturday on last night's GFS run appear dashed, with a rather cool and low pressure dominated picture continuing throughout next weekend. The only uncertainty is which low pressure and from where! Needless to say further rain or showers at times next weekend, the lucky spots missing the worst of it and at least in any sunny spells it will feel warm even though maximum mercury readings in the teens belie this!
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