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Selliso

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Posts posted by Selliso

    Storm Eunice - 18th February

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    38 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    The warnings should emphasise this - people in the eastern half of the warning area will look outside at 10:30 and see that it’s not too bad and then go out.   the sting jet risk (which I assume is the main reason for the red warning) transfers west to east during that five hours ….

    If you read the information in the warning, I think it describes the timing quite well...

    image.thumb.png.fbbb4053d6c3657a957ad8268d9e1e2c.png

    • Like 2

    Storm Eunice - 18th February

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, saintkip said:

    I’m in Edinburgh for the weekend, woke up at 6am hoping to see a blizzard but just slushy mess and it’s now raining. Snow further north. Trying to convince the wife Perth is lovely for a day out.

    image.thumb.png.f3ca520a83fc6d8b5d1069de4d2660b4.png

    Day out indeed - looking at the traffic, it could take a day to get there!

    Midlands Regional Weather Discussion

    in Midlands Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Selliso

    33 minutes ago, weirpig said:

    The feature approaching Us from the irish sea  is certainly more north than modeled   if it reaches here  is may give aflake or two  more likely  icy rain. 

    I've been watching this too - can't quite make out what it is vs expected front locations - I think it's heading south of my location but looks on track to head towards Birmingham. Perhaps a surprise or two in store!

    A lot of cloud ahead of this - gone from clear skies to compeltely cloudy in the last 30 mins.

    • Like 1

    North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Selliso

    27 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

    There's also one other thing to consider here but from the 6 years of living here, I've never been all that impressed with any convective set up from the Irish sea. I can safely say it is NOTHING like the North Sea convectiveness that I have been used too. I always call them 'popcorn showers because the cells are usually quite small and disorganised although at times they do merge together especially over land interestingly. 

    image.thumb.png.280342f9762de01cefa2d3a75f0b247c.png

    Ref the North Sea, there is quite a bit more of it to gain moisture than the Irish Sea. The beafy showers from the Irish Sea would require specific conditions, inc. wind speed and direction. If drawing directly down from the Atlantic and through the North Channel, Manchester / Cheshire / Staffs can do well in this set up. Orographic augmentation kicks in quickly over north west England, often allowing light / limited shower activity at the coast to build into more meaningful showers quite quickly - benefitting Huddersfield more than Rochdale!

    • Like 1

    North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Selliso

    47 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Yes there is a splattering of snow on cold surfaces. However, cloud had rolled in and temp already up to 2.2 degrees. I'm less hopeful for snow at low levels, might see a little bit falling shortly but looks a 300m plus affair. All will depend on how heavy it is and the extent to which evaporative cooling kicks in.

    I would be surprised by much more than transient / intermittent falling snow in heavier bursts below 100m. Surprises likely to come between 100m-200m in some places. I was confused by the BBC weather forecast this morning, as still showed warm front chased by cold front, with the dreaded mild sector - however fax charts seem to show the front fully occluded well into the Atlantic? Not 100% sure what bearing that has, although my rudimentary knowledge would lead me to believe that there is a greater chance for a rain to snow event with that set up, as the mild sector is squeezed out (elevated) by the advancing cold front. 

    • Like 3

    Midlands Regional Discussion Feb 2021 Onward

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Selliso

    A fair amount of anaprop ahead of the main band, it seems. Low also appears to be a little further east than most models (perhaps 30-40 miles or so?), bringing the rain transition further east over north west england. The being said, moving past the radar gap seems to show ppn extends further west, now visible north of the North Wales coast - all to play for

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