Selliso
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Posts posted by Selliso
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6 hours ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:
Heavy sleet, no chance of snow here tonight. Ok if you live 200M ASL maybe but very surprised the whole north west coast is in the warning zone.
I think it's difficult when they put out a combined snow & ice warning, as it begins to set expectations. Being fair to the MetO, I would say that the wording was clear about snow settling to above c. 200m, and showers falling as rain, hail & snow, snow mainly over higher ground. Seems to be what's happened overnight - albeit disappointing to see wet pavements!
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2 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:
Snows on the coast but rains miles inland. Couldn’t make it up.
we have had snow further up the conwy valley in Trefriw, only about 120’ elevation
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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
And probably take out of the shower activity just when they will be falling more readily as snow.
I think I'd remain optimistic for your locations... there's a trough, an occlusion & a cold front in the mix tonight!
Should support strong shower acvitity during the coldest portion of the night.
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5 minutes ago, Zak M said:
Snow possible here, snow possible there.
Snow possible... EVERYWHERE??!?
Yes, but looks more like hills & higher ground to me... FI notwithstanding!
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1 minute ago, Onding said:
Squall line developing over the Irish Sea heading for NW Wales.
Getting nervous. It’s howling here and the valley is flooding.
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Very windy and wet now in the Conwy Valley, North Wales - about 8 miles from Capel Curig.
If I've understood the charts correctly, the impact of Ciara will not arrive here until sometime after 6am.
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2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:
TBF i am situated in pretty much the far east of our region , easterly is always best for my area, as demonstrated in late Feb 2018 when we saw drifts over a foot round these parts (and more than that in higher hills).
Best wind directions for Oldham/Rochdale etc is
NE
E
WNW
The problem with WNW is the Irish sea generally moderates the air to such an extent that you need uppers of -8 or lower ,i think, maybe Kevin will know better, but the best NW/WNW winter month was Jan 1984,certainly in the last thirty or so years.
Looks pretty heavy ppn over Oldham now - hopefully some evaporative cooling for you!
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3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:
Annnnnnnnnd,the irish sea kills any snow hopes yet again, snow in NI and snow in west yorkshire.
I wasn't expecting anything here anyway , perhaps higher up got a dusting.
I feel the pain. Lived near Darwen for 6 years from 2006 - 2014 at just under 800ft. Sometimes amazing, but often not.
If you walked to the top of our hill, you could see Winter Hill to the west, and to the east over Edgworth towards Holcombe Hill. I remember times stood on the hill that we would have sleet falling and little or nothing settling on Winter Hill to our west, but look east, and you could see the snow line down Holcombe Hill. The difference that a few miles inland can make to snow is incredible.
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Looks like snow or heavy sleet in Llandudno at the moment...
WebCam in Llandudno North Wales | West Shore Beach Cafe
WWW.WESTSHOREBEACHCAFE.COMThis North Wales webcam shows views from the West Shore of Llandudno across to Penmaenmawr, Puffin Island, Angelesey and the south west of the Great Orme.Although just up the coast at Penmaenmawr it's reported as cold rain!
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Just now, SqueakheartLW said:
Hope that bottom wind chart is kmph and not mph or else the SE corner will be flattened
Definitely km/h
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On 01/01/2020 at 11:30, Roger J Smith said:
According to the table of entries, this would be the top ten in CET scoring for December. List includes their EWP forecasts if they made one.
_ (number in brackets is order of entry ... with equal errors 2nd to 10th, order of entry determines your ranking)
01 __ 5.8 __ 143.0 __ Timmytour ( 4 )
02 __ 5.9 ___ 85.0 __ cheeky_monkey ( 5 )
03 __ 5.9 __ 111.1 __ Stationary Front ( 7 )
04 __ 5.7 ___ 90.0 __ swfc (30)
05 __ 5.7 __ 115.0 __ Pinball Wizard (38)
06 __ 5.9 __ 101.0 __ selliso (48)
07 __ 5.7 __ 121.0 __ Kentspur (54)
08 __ 5.9 __ --- --- __ dancerwithwings (57)
09 __ 5.7 ___ 71.4 __ sawan (96)
10 __ 5.9 __ --- --- __ Fozfoster (100)
______________________________________________________
Best combined forecast appears to be Kentspur (7th, 1st = 8 rank points)
Next would be Pinball Wizard (5th, 6th = 11 rank points)
6th place!! New year, new career??
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Nadolig Llawen and Happy Christmas to all!
Hopefully the models will get into the festive spirit soon!
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I'm looking forward to the next "Dec 2010", and the next 24" snow drifts like Feb 2018 too, but have to remain realistic that they are very rare beasts indeed.
It's blind confidence time. A bit of scatter at t120, giving "low-ish confidence" is, to me, still a reason to believe!
Hope I'm not the only one that thinks these highs and lows are all part of the gig! UK weather can produce a surprise or two despite unfavourable modelling.
Yes, the trends haven't been good for coldies. Yes, I'm clutching at straws. Yes, I'd have more chance of winning the lottery than seeing those snowflakes on 23rd Dec!
No sign of SSW just yet to add fuel to the coldie fire. And PV seems to have its act together.
ECMWF anomaly analysis certainly drains the confidence without something significant to shift the pattern.
Seasonally, I look to Feb/March for colder indicators. Otherwise, I hope for a more average winter overall, with a least a couple of shots at snowy interest away from upland northern Britain.
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This is my favourite post of the day!
36 minutes ago, weirpig said:bring back the days of Brexit and politics at least it was something worthy to fall out about now we have stooped as low as to have a argument about bloody sun spots.
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A watching brief for Sunday. Snow indicated on a number of GFS runs on the northern flank of a small low zipping west to east through Wales.
Positioning varies, most favoured might be North Wales, but may well position further south.
1) ICON 6z shows south wales snow potential with perhaps a more upland emphasis.
2) Arpege showing a northern event, with an earlier start time and perhaps again an more upland focus.
3) GFS 6z showing some consistency with the 0z run
4) GFS 0z "Snow Chart" from Netweather showing not just an upland snow event for most of wales, but many areas above c. 350ft would likely see at least falling snow.
It will change in the next few days, but I'm watching this more closely now as it moves towards a *slightly* more reliable timeframe! Fingers crossed it doesn't disappear!
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Interesting Fri-Sun period for upland snow & as always, during more intense precipitation we can see surprises below the advertised snow level
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9 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:
GFS 06Z
Friday looking very "interesting"
Cabin up - Pennine Blizzards
T+90 is as far as i'm going
#sensible
Snow level c. 1000ft definitely puts transpennine routes at risk.
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Heavy wet snow / occasional sleet mIx falling in Trefriw, Conwy.
looking up the valley, clear snow line at c. 400-500ft.-
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Looks like official 38 for Cambridge
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Unofficial station in Hartford at 38.4
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Just now, matty007 said:
I’m not sure as to the optimum warm time this time of year but we probably have until about 4pm to try and achieve it.
If Cambridge really is showing 38c now then it is easily possible
I think you're right, we'll know in the next 45 minutes - but the announcement might come a little later. I think it will be close! (My guess was 38.9 in the competition, which I now think is bullish!)
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July record has fallen... All eyes on Cambridge
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Novel Coronavirus – China
in Space, Science & nature
Posted
I agree that it's unclear. Statutory sick pay doesn't equate to full pay, I think it's less than £100 per week and you have to earn a minimum per week to even be eligible.
It would also come down to how the employer / employee choose to treat the absence.
Those who can work from home should obvs be paid in full. If treated as sickness leave, it depends on your company's enhanced sick pay policy - you might only be entitled to statutory sick pay. Not to mention those who rely on regular overtime who would clearly see a reduction in pay.