[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

5 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Looks to be a convergence line where the flow around the trough to the southeast is coming up against the flow around the ridge out west.

Explains why it's struggling to make it all the way down south; less convergence here unless the trough shifts south.

Back to very light snow here now, radar showing heavier amounts developing 4 miles to my NW but not getting any closer. Good thing I have plenty on the ground already!

Ah, thanks for posting - makes some sense of this meteorological madness!

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Astonishing how this area of ppn just keeps reinforcing... Anyone knowledgeable explain how this is happening?

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

29 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

10-15 cm is 10-15 cm, regardless of whether the warning is amber or yellow! Still, I'm around 70% confident an amber warning will go out this morning for Southeast Wales and the southern part of Mid Wales.

I agree, there will probably be a small amber warning area created later this morning, once they've been able to observe the behaviour of the ppn and conversion to snow. The models do not give sufficient clarity alone - only observations will count (also known as nowcasting!) 

Could be that ppn will be long lasting, giving decent totals, but if it falls slowly and steadily over a long timeframe, the actual impact on transport etc. is very much reduced. So might just stay yellow.

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

1 hour ago, thetipster said:

   here it is ultra high res snow acc

Great stuff!

What's the northern extent on the super high res?

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

1 minute ago, andymusic said:

and some drifting - if you get my drift lol

euro4 snow accumulation latest - beacons and surrounding areas looking target for biggest falls up to 20cms or more

 

Wonder how long until an amber warning... The patchy nature of the ppn must be giving them a real headache.

It could be a big win for some, bust for others despite conditions being favourable well down into the valleys, and almost to the coast! 

Not much for the North on Thursday, but we've done quite well from showers over the last 12 hours up near Conwy. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Just a thought regarding the failed easterly of late, and the lack of cold coming out of Europe, could it be to do with brexit perhaps!! I means let's face it Europe won't give us anything right now

The cold shoulder, perhaps.

[North West Regional thread 01/09/18 Onwards......]

1 minute ago, SnowThunder said:

Isn't that the other Low that was mentioned yesterday to maybe keep an eye on ?

Sorry, sounds like I missed this completely! 

I've seen features like this zip down the west coast of Scotland before, sometimes they die out, sometimes the re-intensify over the Irish Sea. 

I would keep an eye on it.

[North West Regional thread 01/09/18 Onwards......]

I'm interested in this feature that has developed just off the Hebrides... looks like shower activity is beginning to show some signs of rotation. I haven't noticed this on the models previously... (may have just missed it) Will be watching its development and trajectory over the next hour or so.

 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 minute ago, Fozfoster said:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-16.51,58.79,447/loc=-73.252,33.936

This one?

Ah, yes looks like it. Was this modelled and I've just missed it? 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Is there a little low forming just off the Hebrides? Looks like circulation on the radar...? 

[North West Regional thread 01/09/18 Onwards......]

16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Winds have backed NW now- heads up to the crew to me west and south west..

Just need the irish sea to wake up now..

Good luck guys..

Fax had the occlusion over the Isle of Man by around 6pm, so would expect to see the activity increase very soon...

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Looks like it's turned to wet snow now in Swindon

[North West Regional thread 01/09/18 Onwards......]

5 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

Just Started Snowing heavy again here, The Showers must be kicking in x

I'd definitely keep your eyes peeled from c. 5pm onwards, with occlusion incoming from the North West. Will pep up any shower activity you see this afternoon.

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

13 minutes ago, andymusic said:

I have a feeling the height caveat of 200m and above will matter - you may see some flakes or sleetiness though as the cold is embedding further into the front as it goes reason why the met office were more concerned for south east England as it will arrive in the dark and with more cold embedded

I am getting the snow here but nothing is accumulating - it's possible the accumulating level will be around 300m and above as senghenydd mountain may have some once the cloud clears

Definitely settled snow around 150m-200m in Conwy valley. Lower stuff is melting, but modest altitude is very white. Temperature drop was marked. Very interested in the shower activity to come this evening - will provide more interest at lower levels.

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

2 hours ago, thetipster said:

latest ultra high res in 5k for tommorow 09:00hrs M4 NORTH +

Is there a view of this for north wales too? Conwy valley?

[North West Regional thread 01/09/18 Onwards......]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

That'll be this trough

It could give some snowfall INLAND, coastal areas no chance.

Yup. And only then with elevation, c. 300m > so hill snow by definition. Intensity unlikely to drive that much lower, although heaviest might allow temp accum to 200m?

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

19 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Quite a bit further from the coast than Blackburn..

For some reason the showers always seem to die a death before hitting Oldham, i can only assume its the hills..

Glad you did well though Chris

I remember the pain!  

WNW can do it, but often marginal off Irish Sea. NW and showers break up on West Pennine Moors, NNW filters down the Cheshire gap into Shropshire! 

Fingers crossed you get your Beasterly. 

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

39 minutes ago, andymusic said:

going forward more snowy chances on the horizon from saturday/sunday onwards this weekend

and battleground

Seems like that has trended in the right direction in the last few model runs... One to watch!

[North West Regional thread 01/09/18 Onwards......]

How long has it been since there was a proper wintry North Westerly? I can't remember... But great to see the Cheshire Gap in full swing. And lots of interest over NI for N Wales, Cheshire, Greater Manchester... will it peter out or will it re-intensify over a relatively mild Irish Sea?

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

8 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Hmm, nah... much more N to NNE, hitting MidEu... UK too close to High on Atlantic....

Yes, high is concern there... or are we just dismissing this as the GFS not having a handle on the situation? 

Colder yes. Some wintriness, yes. Persistent or deep UK cold... no. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

29 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GEM on the other hand is much more pleasing on the eye and ends at day 10

Sliders for dinner, anyone?

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

1 minute ago, East801 said:

Looking at the wintry scenes across Europe it’s really frustrating that we remain on the outer limits of this cold and snowy weather which has engulfed much of mainland Europe.

The picture postcard scenes across Austria, Turkey and Germany really are quite something, feet of snow.

Here’s hoping our time is coming...we all deserve it after such a patient first half of winter.

Let’s hope the 12z can guide us closer ....

 

A

Yes... although there is a reality from this kind of "stau-effect" feature in Austria.

The town I lived in several years ago has been almost inaccessible for a nearly a week, with the area declared a disaster zone.

9 feet of snow is putting structures under considerable stress, and they are enduring the highest possible avalanche warning level. Hopefully the army will be able to reach the valley with support flights tomorrow as the weather clears - then another round of heavy snow over the weekend.

I really do want the cold and snow as much as anyone else here, but I wouldn't call the current situation in parts of Austria a "picture postcard."

 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Well, the Para has me under -10-ish uppers from about 23rd Jan!

We'll ignore pet 13, which is clearly wrong....

Starting to allow myself to feel more positive now about a colder phase of the winter...

Don't need Roy Castle or Cheryl Baker on hand just in case it's a record breaker - some decent cold and snowy shots will do for me!

 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

24 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

The coldest lobe stays over Canada (-40c uppers!!!)  but it is further W/NW away from Greenland (what we want) and we get a displaced chunk that heads our way.  Importantly though we see -20c deep cold build over Scandinavia and a HP wedge build over there.  -20c wedge heads into Iceland from the Pole and astonishing cold wedge coming off Maritime Canada in a pincer movement.......heading towards us, with deep cold wedge over Scandi.  Only one route from there.......I think it shows the potential cross polar movement of cold RJS was explaining.

 

BFTP

Omega?

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

I note that there seems to be a little less scatter in the gfs over the next few days, vs runs from a couple of weeks ago. Good to see.

Something colder trending as well, perhaps? Although FI remains FI...