ShinyDave

The other thing with that article is the really smart conclusion: even if this particular atmospheric setup doesn't happen this time, the models are saying it can produce these extremes when it does, so we need to collectively prepare for the time when it does. And, of course, it turned out that time was July 2022 after all. Lot of variance at medium/longer range here but we've just had a startling lesson in not totally dismissing outlier runs like the one that's giving London 23C 850s in a couple of weeks... and if dangerously intense heatwave conditions are locked in over Spain, that does suggest that if and when there is a plume setup it'll be one to seriously watch. Time, and other model runs, will tell us how much of a prospect that hypothetical actually is...

Indeed. I would have guessed a Foehn effect helping an isolated more northerly spot but the topography doesn't even seem to fit that. That said, at least one model run genuinely had the absolute maxima pretty close to that spot IIRC, between Leeds and Hull. Again, the fact a 39 in the heart of Yorkshire can even draw a question of "is it real or just a bit off?" is not a question we ever thought we'd ask until... well, let's be honest, even when the first model runs started floating it as a legit possibility we didn't think we'd ask it for real, did we? The meta-picture is just astonishing. We'll never forget this day.

I was very confused why the models weren't predicting epic storms given the scale of the SW-NE cooldown gradient that was showing up on those same models for this afternoon! (Given my storm-twitchiness I was personally very glad for that - we had just the odd rumble late morning that scared me and turned out totally isolated - but I feel sorry for the storm seekers given how much this could have set up for them!)

1.9C up on the 2003 record is actually almost exactly what we currently have for England - although worth noting that day's 38.5, like the 2019 38.7, was a late arrival too. Watched an archive clip of one of that evening's BBC news bulletins yesterday and the record at that point was stated as 37.9 from Heathrow. Either way, we're looking at an apparent ~2C leap from 2003 to 2022 for both England and Scotland, and that was about the margin taken out of the (1990) Welsh record yesterday too.

They did, and the 39.1 at Charlwood was pre-noon (!). So many stations reporting a figure that rounds to 40 that you'd figure there's at least one even higher spot somewhere. Maybe tomorrow, when we hear from stations with manual daily reporting (?), we find that spot. Certainly it sounds like that could be where we turn to for the Scottish record.

Even if that's a suspicious anomaly... let's be honest the fact we even have to check that thought with regard to a 43C reading in England is absolutely staggering.

I am so relieved I'm as far west as I am. It's quite bad enough for me here and we're nowhere near record territory... can't imagine what it's like along the eastern side of the country.

It's the sheer breadth of the heat that staggers as much as the localised intensity. The headlines will be temperatures starting with a 4, and not unreasonably either. But some of the places with temperatures well into the 30s being in that territory is somehow even more staggering. "Cooling breaks for football matches in Rotherham and Manchester" feels like it ought to be every bit as resonant as an enduring memory of this astonishing weather event.

I used to live in Whyteleafe (albeit not for that long) and still keep forgetting how high up that airfield is! Absolute obliteration of these overnight records. Getting to 38.8 today might be a race against time but good grief what a headstart in that race. Yesterday was marked by late-breaking peaks; today very, very won't. Going to be fascinating to see not only where we peak, but where that peak is set - my mind is still struggling to process Yorkshire being in play for it!

Watching out for those storms over Cornwall myself. Personally I'm a storm hater because of my sensitivity to loud noise and flashing lights but at least it looks like it'll be firmly in the day here and will do a very solid cooling job? Was absolutely surreal to walk outside topless at midnight thinking it was actually, genuinely comfortable. In this country!

Had wondered if there was an inevitability about it given how it was a cold front banging into historically hot air. Also seems like a relatively east-west line on that radar, bit more so than I seemed to remember the modelling showing for the temperature gradients. Humberside setting the all-time record (which, itself, is a sentence I can't believe I'm writing) might be more likely if that's the case, if areas further south along the A1 corridor are going to get hit with the convection stick first?

Slept downstairs using my weighted blanket as a mattress. Actually got hours plural, albeit not enough. At this point, in South Wales, it looks like I may have dodged a bullet, as opposed to my mum near Mansfield who's going to be getting the absolute worst of today. But. One of the reasons I'm a heat hater is how often any hot spells end with thunderstorms, which for me as an anxious autistic person with excessive sensitivity to light and sound is... not pleasant. Genuinely scared.

2018 was definitely the closest modern-day comparison to 1976 and I'm honestly surprised it's not been more widely recognised as such. But certainly an awful lot of people are going to remember tomorrow for a very long time if it gets anywhere close to the model runs - either because we never see its like again, or because we absolutely do and we mark it as a climate tipping point.

Pretty sure that's sarcastic but my radar for detecting that is a bit wonky Sheffield does look like it's squarely in the crosshairs for the absolute worst of the evil day star tomorrow so I'm not surprised to hear of workplace closures there. Stay safe!

If that's the kind of setup we get, possible that we get the history-rewriting temperatures in a smaller area while the cloud keeps a lid on things outside that area?

Does feel like exactly the sort of thing a public service organisation - which UKMO is - ought to be doing! And I don't think they'd be just being quiet about having a potential record TBC. They tweeted out the provisional Welsh record specifically saying it was provisional, and the 2019 record was also announced provisionally and then later as official. So I think if they had an unofficial 38.8+ they would be saying so... but we don't know that because of the infrequency of updates generally!

Especially when the gap between those two days is going to be filled with a historically hot night! I would not be surprised if the top recording for today actually ended up tying the 38.7 record. Not that this record will survive tomorrow's setup.

A friend got the same in York from her iPhone weather app. Wouldn't trust those numbers, but for them to even be in the corridor of plausibility...

Considering we're already making a legitimate run at all-time highs it's easy to forget about the small matter of how this broader meterological setup for heat isn't yet maxed out. Just shows how staggering that setup is.

It would help if it being the standard summer conditions was reflected in infrastructure, like it is in the places that actually get it for months at a time!

Knowing we're exactly "on record pace" in terms of the 3pm number was really interesting. And if there's a 37.5 out there we're apparently ahead of record pace if Cambridge was on 37.2 at the same point? This is certainly going to be close at any rate. And it's not even meant to be the peak. Staggering.

37.1 as the high right now with maybe a couple of hours of heating time left; guessing a record won't happen but a 38 somewhere will? Even that would be top-3 all-time for this country... until tomorrow.

Same, always find it interesting when you get peak temperatures in places that don't seem at first to make any sense until you realise Foehn is in play. I noticed some of the forecast record minima tonight were for Cumbria in at least one model, presumably Foehn in play there.

This is the correct response to 1976 comparisons IMO. It's the durability that made that so remembered and remarkable, rather than the intensity; these plume events are all intensity. Terrifying to even think about a "more intense 1976" to be honest, but...

Even 40 looked like a "what are the models smoking?" moment when they first popped up of course. It's incredible to even think about saying "oh we're only looking at 40 rather than 42" in this country.