ShinyDave
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Posts posted by ShinyDave
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32 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
It was - but the whole week running up was baking hot....and also on the back of June and July.
The 20c line actually covered the SE on the 5th and 6th, and rebuilt through the 9th and finally the UK record went on the 10th. In-between this, 850 temps were 15-20c, so it was an exceptionally hot week. 32c plus was recorded on the 4/5/6 and 8/9/10/11/12th August. Only day that missed 32c was the 7th, but even that was above 30c. St James park was over 30c every day from the 4th to the 12th. So the build up just set everything in place for the 2003 record.
I'd add that in the 20 years following, the climate has warmed even more, so that we likely don't even need such a prolonged build up to achieve similar results. July 2019 showed this pretty well, it came from a much shorter run up, and May and June previously were no great shakes.I remember that week well, pretty sure as early as the 6th I was watching for a potential record (and then had to go back home on a speed-limited train on the 10th... ooof). Was very surprised when 2019 actually broke the record given that relatively lack of build-up heat you mentioned!
So much seems to hinge on such a small low and I'm guessing we're going to be seeing quite a lot of model volatility as a result of that, but if longer spells of heat are self-perpetuating, how well do the models account for that? And is it more prevalent in cities where there's building/paved surface heat reflection as a larger factor?
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9 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:
Heat moving in a little quicker compared to the 12z
Looks further west as well.
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1 hour ago, Geordiesnow said:
The record breaking heat will all depend on orientation of the high, how much wind and what direction it coming from. IF it sets up perfectly the record will be broken and 40C would be likely but It has to be inch perfect really.
Relatively naive question here; would that mean that the models starting to project a later peak than they previously did is because they now think that a setup closer to that "perfect" 40C-feeding one is more likely to come later? Obviously if there's that level of subtlety at play then longer-range forecasts are inherently going to have bigger error margins just because normal variance in models that far out could be the difference between something historic and something very much not...
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47 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
If the Metoffice upgrade to a red emergency warning on Monday then very little should be open IMO.
In places where such temperatures are common e.g Spain, most places close during the middle part of the day.
Horrifyingly, I bet some people would complain about a "weather lockdown" (at least one fringe voice did that with Eunice) if that was the case. But it absolutely should be the case.
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8 minutes ago, legion_quest said:
I think I shall just cry.
That extreme heat is back again on the models and it's directly hitting me here in the South.
I think I need to move to Lerwick before it's too late!
The Lerwick button on the BBC Weather home page has always struck me as a portal to a safer world in spells like these. If I won an unconscionable amount of money on the lottery the first thing I'd do is consider buying a house there for me and my fellow-heat-hating partner...
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1 minute ago, h2005__uk__ said:
Higher probability for 'extreme' temps (i.e. mid-high 30s) but lower probability for breaking the all-time record.
And the warning system is specifically an impact-based model, so if the modelling is starting to settle on a consensus of near-record temperatures having thrown out both low-30s and low-40s as genuine possibilities that's going to show up as a more confident warning even if the most severe outcomes are falling out of play.
Which, to take this back to modelling, seems to be what's happening? Lots of "downgrades" to the extreme runs, but if there's fewer "damp squib" runs as well...
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1 minute ago, Mapantz said:
We've had numerous red warnings in the last decade. There was also an identical amber heat warning last year for the SW and parts of the W.
Was referring to "this decade" as the 2020s, I think Eunice was the only other red one there. 2013-19 had quite a few, as you say.
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16 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
Amber warning issued by the met offiice on Sunday for "Extreme heat"
Some exceptionally high temperatures are possible during Sunday and could lead to widespread impacts on people and infrastructure.
What to expect
- Population-wide adverse health effects are likely to be experienced, not limited to those most vulnerable to extreme heat, leading to potential serious illness or danger to life. Government advice is that 999 services should be used in emergencies only; seek advice from 111 if you need non-emergency health advice.
- Substantial changes in working practices and daily routines likely to be required
- Significantly more people are likely to visit coastal areas, lakes and rivers leading to increased risk of water safety incidents
- Delays on roads and road closures are possible, along with delays and cancellations to rail and air travel, with potential for significant welfare issues for those who experience even moderate delays
Temperatures will build again later this week and over the coming weekend, likely peaking on Sunday and Monday. Some exceptionally high temperatures are possible and cumulative effects of warm nights and hot days are expected to bring widespread impacts to people and infrastructure. This period of hot weather is expected to continue into the early part of next week, hence an update extending this warning into Monday is likely.
What absolutely strikes me about this is that the warning is for high impact - and already with moderate confidence. Literally one confidence upgrade away from becoming a red warning, only the second for anything this decade after Eunice IIRC.
I remember when Eunice hit and the warning went red for the SE only at 3:40am or so (after the TV coverage overwhelmingly focused on the Severn Estuary/Bristol Channel red area the previous night!), and some people on here suggested that there should be a "Red Watch" for the high impact/moderate confidence spot on the matrix. And here we are again. This is a Red Watch situation.
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38.8C, 18th, London/Kew Gardens
(Is there really nowhere in Kent that has an official record-verifying station at all now? I know Gravesend had the microclimate issue but...)
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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:
Sorry I know it's not strictly model output but it does give credibility to model output - here's the Met Office wording:
Temperatures will build again later this week and over the coming weekend, likely peaking on Sunday and Monday. Some exceptionally high temperatures are possible and cumulative effects of warm nights and hot days are expected to bring widespread impacts to people and infrastructure. This period of hot weather is expected to continue into the early part of next week, hence an update extending this warning into Monday is likely.
I also see the warning is on the trajectory leading to a red warning - that must be where they are expecting this to go.
Wow.
And the explanatory article on the Met Office website announcing this warning has a quote that suggests the model consensus is at least tracking towards approaching the record even if smashing it doesn't happen:
Some models have been producing maximum temperatures in excess of 40C in parts of the UK over the coming weekend and beyond. At longer time scales temperature forecasts become less reliable, so whilst these figures can’t be ruled out, they are still only a low probability. A number of weather scenarios are still possible and at the current time, mid- or perhaps high-30s are looking more likely.
And that does track with comments on this thread where people have been talking about "downgrades" that are still highly relative.
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1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:
I don't recall seeing a warning like this before?
I think the Met Office only started incorporating heat warnings separate from the existing Heat Health Watch very recently. I definitely remember the first one was last July, my partner's mum went on a coach trip to Wales and was hoping to see us in Cardiff but I absolutely backed out because of the heat. Was that amber too? I forget.
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7 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:
Given that Netweather has a male membership bias, do we think that there's a macho tendency in the Models thread to describe 40C+ in positive terms?
This is interesting as an observation because men on average have lower temperature preferences (obviously there's significant individual variation) so in theory the more viable "macho tendency" would be to describe intense cold in positive terms!
Perhaps the model discussions specifically are drawn towards hyping Historic Events, given their inherent focus on details and specific outcomes. Obviously some people genuinely love the heat (while others, like me and presumably others posting in this thread given its title, genuinely loathe it), but I think that might be the actual bias at play.
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2 hours ago, SunnyPlease said:
It's preferences isn't it. If you don't like constant heat, dryness and sun, I can understand why you wouldn't like it. For me though, it was an absolutely wonderful summer. We get drenched nearly the year round in this country so it was absolute bliss to virtually have no rain at all for a couple of months.
While I have almost the exact opposite preferences - certainly for temperatures - I absolutely appreciate how good it must feel to have things fall exactly as you want them and to stay that way for longer than you ever think possible.
As someone with strong sensory aversions to heat and light I just wish I could swap some of my hot sunny days for your cool cloudy ones, but of course weather doesn't work like that -
4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:
One other point, despite some ill feeling towards the Met Office on here, I think they did a pretty good job overall, but I think they're hamstrung by the current warning system. An overhaul should be considered as part of the post mortem.
I think I would agree with this. They needed to have maximum certainty of maximum impact when going to red, and that was just too much to commit to until a very awkward time. The colour coding has an undeniably appealing simplicity - the value of which should not be underestimated - but major incidents are where systems get stress-tested and lessons learned, and I think a Red Watch for high impact/medium probability situations would be apt, with a messaging emphasis on "employers and services should anticipate that red-level impacts will occur and respond accordingly in case they do." Of course too many even in the actual red area don't (not to mention how many can't!), but that's another rant...
That turned out to be a very lucky escape for me, considering someone's house in this very city got condemned by wind damage. I don't even think we have any damage at all here, as the hill fort to our west really did buffer us from the strongest winds. The worst of the noise and anxiety was definitely in the first half of the red warning window when they were still more southerly here (meaning they were largely unimpeded by terrain or even buildings), and I know that wasn't the actual wind peak.
I've just had an afternoon/evening's sleep and now have to patch together my sleep pattern again, but I know how much worse that could have been.
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The SE red warning dropping now has some real 1987 vibes. Obviously the warning system that we know today wasn't a thing then, but that night also had an escalating response while most were sleeping.
The good news is that people will actually wake up to this news, the bad news is the same. I'm nervous about people whose employers don't respond well to this and force them into danger
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25 minutes ago, TallPaul said:
Hi all, just outside of the red warning area (perplexed why not red as this storm falls bang in commute hours here in Plymouth). Swathe of England in highest matrix on amber alert, ready and waiting for storm Eunice...Looking at charts, models, latest sat (provided by your good selves)....and....listening to the now increasing gusts outside, I really am already feeling anxious and nervous as of what's to hit us. I love extreme weather, but already the winds are picking up here, hours before Met warnings kicks in. Stay safe all, I don't often get nervy, but feel this will rock a good part of us - and will be a memory and tale for years to come.
I'm knocking on a bit, 53 years young, so have witnessed the great storms of the last 4 decades......but this, I feel will really a be a newsworthy and memorable event for the history books.
Just inside the red area here and can already start to hear the gusts. Now admittedly that might be because of my autistic sensory hypersensitivity, but this feels ominous this early at this end of the red area.
I can't remember the last time I was this anxious ahead of a weather event and it's feeling like my anxiety is proving horribly justified.
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1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:
I thought the highest gust during that storm was 97mph at/near Boulmer? If there was any 120mph gusts, its bound to be right on top of the pennines rather than any low lying areas. That said as you said, the impacts were quite severe and no doubt more red warnings should be out than there is just like in this case. The south coast looks particularly like it be will be hard hit during the morning then in the afternoon NW England, North Wales alobg with East Anglia seeing the strongest gusts. I would argue these areas should have red warnings also but we shall see how it develops.
The comment I saw earlier suggesting a "Red Watch" feels like a good one to me - certainly it has a corollary with American practice for hurricanes. It's entirely normal for a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning to run in parallel for areas that may or may not get hurricane-force winds depending on the final pre-landfall track, and the uncertainty around the sting jet even at this stage makes it reasonable to figure that there's red-warning-worthy possibilties in the SE but not the certainty to commit to such a warning. (And indeed the actual matrix shows exactly that.)
1987 was notorious in part because most people went to bed before public-facing forecasts made it clear how much of a wind threat this is. If we get a sting jet with Eunice, we're going to have ended up with the most populated part of the country - and the same area so badly hit in 1987! - in very much the same position despite all the efforts made to avoid it since. Half of the BBC Ten bulletin was devoted to Eunice but not one sting jet mention and most of the focus firmly on the Bristol Channel/Severn Estuary red area. Even speaking as someone in that area myself, as nervous for a weather event as I can ever remember, that feels like a problem.-
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4 hours ago, gbrunner12 said:
Still looking like the first week of August will be the peak in terms of temperature away from the South East. This is the ensemble forecast for Cardiff for example:
...well that's no fun for this heat-sensitive couple in Newport.
...it might be the peak in terms of temperature in the SE too, if this run for Norfolk is any guide?!? I mean, the GFS Operational line literally threatens to break the scale...
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There's definitely the potential to go higher than today, it just might blow up on us. Literally, I guess, seeing as a thundery breakdown would surely be in play if the cloud cover comes in to thwart the run at a July record.
GFS 12Z still showing 34 over Norfolk and I seem to recall that being seen as a conservative model in these scenarios? But the other models seem to go the other way, so... eh. It's surely going to come down to cloud cover or lack thereof, so one way or another tomorrow is likely to be spectacular.
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I also absolutely preferred that weather to this.
The snow and ice were difficult for me as someone with coordination difficulties, but at least it was pleasant to be inside and snuggle up in heavy clothing and/or under multiple duvets. No such joys exist in this weather, and it's just as difficult to go outside.
...in the daytime, at least. Nights are a bit more manageable, but that's just made me even more nocturnal than I normally am -
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Depends on ability to prepare, you can do pretty much jack in heat, you can do loads wrt cold,
Depends on ability to prepare indeed, and that will vary!
For some people, cold is more disruptive because of dangerous conditions on footpaths and roads. That in turn creates disruption for food supplies, certainly in snowy conditions like in March this year where everyone stocked up on bread (helpfully we had two loaves in the freezer!).
But for other people, heat is more disruptive because it slows everything drastically down and there's not nearly as many ways of dealing with it.
Ultimately both can cause significant inconvenience for most people and significant danger for vulnerable individuals. The difference is that this kind of weather gets positively cheered on by a lot of people, which is beyond infuriating for someone like me who finds it legitimately disabling.-
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6 minutes ago, cheese said:
Wouldn't be so sure about that - in a typical winter the number of deaths due to cold-related issues is in the thousands anyway. There were 34,000 excess deaths in the winter of 2016/2017. Heatwaves are definitely less disruptive to daily life than cold spells.
Just looked to ONS data myself. Interestingly, while winter in general does produce much higher death totals than summer, severe cold doesn't seem to produce nearly as clear a link to excess deaths as severe heat. There were more excess deaths in the winter of 2011/12 than the two much more severe winters before it!
(I would say that excess deaths from both are absolutely in part a preparation issue in terms of looking after vulnerable people.)-
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I'm autistic and have sensory processing issues at the best of times. Ditto my husband. And for both of us, heat is something we're sensitive to.
Thankfully we're in SE Wales rather than SE England, but even if it's not as intense here it is still relentless. We've only slept in the same bed once this month, and that was in an air-conditioned Premier Inn. In Lancashire.
(And we were there because of a family funeral. The statistics about more people dying in heatwaves and it being hard to know how many of them died because of the heat feel all the more personal when your husband's mourning the loss of his dad during one...)-
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1 hour ago, Nick L said:
I think there's a greater than 50% chance of the July record going. Anywhere from Peterborough to London and east of this could see 36-37c. I think a 30% chance of the all time record going is on the high side, I'd give it 10%.
Always difficult to put a figure on "how likely is it that one weather station out of dozens in this area will produce a number above this" of course.
What does seem clear is that tomorrow and/or Friday will join the pantheon of historically hot days in this country along with 10 August 2003 and 1 July 2015. Obviously it's interesting to see what records if any fall, but the real story is that those are the comparisons. Even by this summer's standards, this is an escalation.
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The heat haters club 2022
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by ShinyDave
Added bit on holidays seeing as I quoted that bit of the post too
I am the same, and in my case there are definitely disability-related reasons; like a lot of autistic people, I have sensory hypersensitivity, and heat is one of the things I'm most sensitive to. Even "normal" hot baths make me flinch to the point that I need mine closer to lukewarm.
Quite a few of my autistic friends are particularly heat-sensitive too - one literally moved from Kent to Scotland for the weather, something I feel like the Heat Haters Club would understand! - and there was one recent study (which I think I may have been part of actually) asking autistic people about their sensory experiences where over half of respondents reported sensitivity to high temperatures.
Other disabilities have heat intolerance as a factor too, this is just the one I can speak about from personal experience.
(As for holidays, do not get me started on the time I was dragged to Mallorca in 2001. My first and last such holiday! If I'm spending four figures for a summer holiday, I'm going to Shetland for guaranteed anti-summer...)