Another Kent clipper
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Posts posted by Another Kent clipper
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On 18/02/2020 at 18:48, Mapantz said:
I've just picked up a lightning strike on my Ecowitt station from those showers in the channel.
I hope you were wearing protective gloves!
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Well I got a cheeky tea-time flash, followed by three minutes of hail and wind. According to the five second thunder rule, the bolt should have landed on my nose - but it was about five miles away according to lightningmaps and I agree.
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2600 strikes today. Bodes well for the rest of the year...
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Sounds rather exciting does tomorrow. Imagine a setup like this in summer, with a plume drifting up!
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Bit of green for t' lads...
Day 1 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 15 Dec 2019 - 05:59 UTC Mon 16 Dec 2019
ISSUED 23:04 UTC Sat 14 Dec 2019
ISSUED BY: Dan
Similar to Saturday, a strong southwesterly flow aloft will cover much of central and southern parts of the British Isles during Sunday, on the forward side of a broad upper trough. Several shortwaves will move quickly northeastwards in the flow, enhancing shower activity and organising into longer spells of rain at times, with some linear features / bow echoes likely at times capable of producing squally winds, small hail and perhaps a tornado.
Strong shear, steep mid-level lapse rates and several hundred J/kg CAPE will result in some sporadic lightning in places, particularly close to the southern and western coasts. A few episodes of interest exist - across parts of Wales on Sunday morning, Irish Sea during the afternoon then more widely over southern and western Britain during the evening hours (particularly Dorset to IoW northeastwards towards London). A low-end SLGT has been introduced.
Convective Weather
CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UKForecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.-
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Bit of green on the map, maybe Mr frost might see something...
Day 1 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 10 Dec 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 11 Dec 2019
ISSUED 06:48 UTC Tue 10 Dec 2019
ISSUED BY: Dan
A squally cold front will drive eastwards across the British Isles on Tuesday, in a strongly-sheared environment. Strong convective gusts are expected, accompanied by a brief spell of torrential rain - however, the risk of lightning is considered very low given meagre instability and a saturated column. Nonetheless, the front will need monitoring for potential brief spin-up tornadoes.
The post-frontal environment is then characterised by a significant cold pool overspreading relatively warm seas across western areas, with very steep mid-level lapse rates and a 200-500 J/kg CAPE. By Tuesday evening and night, numerous showers will pile into Ireland, northern and western Scotland, and later in the night across the Irish Sea into Wales and SW England. Some sporadic lightning is likely in places - climatologically, western Scotland, NW / W / SW Ireland, south Wales and SW England. A low-end SLGT has been introduced. Strong, gusty winds and small hail will accompany many of the showers, with snow on northern hills.
Convective Weather
WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UKForecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.-
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Only in the UK would a low threat need to be further partitioned
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You should never have to apologise for cumulonimbi
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I call this setup: 2019
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I saw an anvil-shaped cloud today in Croydon and thought "aww, it looks like a cumulonimbus but it can't be because we have no storm forcast"
Well maybe that bird that quacked was in fact a duck!
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Things looked a bit sexy earlier in Wallington, Sutton. A few respectable rumbles.
And then it went away.
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Is that us done for today then?
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I finish work at 7.30 this evening. Should I stay and do overtime that is the question?!
Edit. I will wait and see, as that Irish storm appears to have died already
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The single paragraph makes me think even Dan is mourning the convective summer that was...
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53 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:
Ha! Good news for us - though the forecast is for clear skies
Would love for some late evening action but I think it will all die off over the next few hours.
Oh well I’m off to Amsterdam hopefully in November and maybe will have some better luck there
Edit: this is to the northeast - look what’s growing behind the trees
Lasso lightning?
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Let's talk about August 2004. Anyone have any videos or experiences from it? I heard that it was quite a prolific time for the uk. I was living in Stoke at the time and don't personally remember anything notable
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15 hours ago, zmstorm said:
That's smoke right?
I was suspicious it might have been
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Good sporadic morning.
Day 1 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 04 Sep 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 05 Sep 2019
ISSUED 05:28 UTC Wed 04 Sep 2019
ISSUED BY: Dan
Broad upper trough will migrate eastwards across the British Isles on Wednesday, with a couple hundred J/kg CAPE developing in response to warm SSTs and diurnal heating inland. Various areas of showers will tend to develop behind the cold front which will clear SE England late morning, but for most areas the depth of convection will be too shallow, and instability too weak, to produce much in the way of lightning. There will also be some longer spells of rain at times across Scotland in particular as the wrap-around occlusion slides eastwards.
Overall the greatest risk of lightning will be across Scotland and northern England during Wednesday afternoon, but probably fairly isolated. There will most likely be an uptick in some sporadic lightning activity over the North Sea overnight.
http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-09-04
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Speaking of which, i often wondered what this was that I saw a few years ago.
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14 hours ago, zmstorm said:
It's approaching September now. I hope this is a really convective month to really finish this storm season as barely anything convective happens in Bedford in September.
I was thinking about this time of year today. The next 6 weeks seems like a better time for funnel clouds. Don't know why, maybe the wind, the low pressure, idk
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Someone will get something. Somewhere
Day 1 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 31 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 01 Sep 2019
ISSUED 09:39 UTC Sat 31 Aug 2019
ISSUED BY: Dan
Weak instability and marked mid-level dry intrusion in a highly-sheared environment along a cold front drifting slowly eastwards across Britain during Saturday will encourage some convection on the rear side of the frontal precipitation - with a few LEWPs noted in radar imagery so far this morning. Overall the limited convective depth and weak CAPE suggests the risk of lightning is rather low, although some gusty winds may occur locally.
The post-frontal environment will be characterised by a cold pool overspreading the British Isles as an upper trough shifts eastwards, steepening lapse rates and generating a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Showers will become more widespread across Ireland and western Scotland through Saturday, extending across the Irish Sea and into western England/Wales later in the day, and continuing overnight. A few isolated lightning strikes and/or small hail may be possible from the strongest cells.
http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-08-31
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Sorry to hear that you were put off storms from early on. Given that I've moved to southeast London this year and brought the Manchester storm shield with me, expect to dodge many more thunder bullets!
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1 hour ago, The PIT said:
Apart from a few distant flashers....
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On 14/08/2019 at 19:51, Another Kent clipper said:
I think we're done for 2019 personally. Here's to a plumetastic 2020
For extra sadness I'm quoting myself.
Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
I cannot wait for the season to get started, not gonna lie.
Day 1 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 24 Feb 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 25 Feb 2020
ISSUED 06:52 UTC Mon 24 Feb 2020
ISSUED BY: Dan
As a surface low gradually clears eastwards from southern Scotland, the environment across much of the British Isles will become increasingly unstable during Monday evening and night as a cold pool overspreads relatively warm SSTs, creating steep mid-level lapse rates and yielding up to 400 J/kg CAPE. Numerous showers will affect Ireland initially, then spreading farther east into western Britain through the night. Hail is likely in many of the showers, along with isolated to sporadic lightning - the risk generally greatest towards W / NW Ireland, where a low-end SLGT has been issued. Gusts of 50-60mph will be possible with some showers in western Ireland.